Monday, June 17, 2013

Can Modi win in 2014? – by Chetan Bhagat

Related post:

Advani – Modi tussle and what the BJP horoscope says...




There's little dispute about BJP entering the 2014 election race with Narendra Modi as the general. The more important question is, can he win? Or perhaps the more important one for the BJP, what will it take to win?

This column is not written with the intent to back the BJP. It is merely a set of actions and events that need to happen if they want to see Modi as PM. As Indian citizens our best outcome is if there's a tough contest, with each side putting in their best.

With this intent the following game plan for winning 2014 is being offered. Some of the suggestions may not be what you call straight or fair. However, if you try to be that in Indian elections, your result will be a big zero. If the end intent is good, which is to change India for the better, perhaps the means can be unconventional. Anyhow, here is what it may take for Modi to become the PM.

One, work on the fence-sitters. Modi polarises opinion, a fact unlikely to change. A cult-like fan following on one hand, to absolute haters on the other, people's opi-nion on Modi is divided. Convincing either side to switch is never going to work. However, there's a large group of fence-sitters, particularly new voters, who still haven't made up their mind about him. They can be convinced.

However, an inspiring speech or the right slogan won't do it. They can't be marketed to. They have to be persuaded on a one-on-one basis. An army of educated, not overtly political volunteers, say one lakh in total or 200 per constituency is required. They'd work one-on-one on no more than eight families, or about 20 votes a day. This would be the level of micro-campaigning required to convince people about the merits of electing someone like Modi.

Trust needs one-on-one interaction, not mass media advertising. Since this process is time and labour intensive, fence-sitter voter data and the right message kit with the volunteers would be important. Modi is one of the rare leaders to pull this kind of support together given his popularity amongst the youth. If one lakh volunteers can work 200 votes each in total, that's 20 million votes, enough to cause a swing on his side.

Two, the BJP needs to back him completely and be clear on the actual benefits India will have from having a leader like him, apart from just getting rid of the Congress. For instance, Modi will have been CM of a state earlier. This will enable a better Centre-states relationship, often in jeopardy these days. Or, Modi's decisiveness (after all, they did take a decision in Goa) is something India might badly need.

The focus on job creation can be another one where the youth will respond well. Whatever he is offering, should be clear to the BJP, and eventually to the electorate. Also, the constant references to Gujarat need to stop. What can you do for India, is more important than what was done for Gujarat.

Three, social engineering in the ticket allocation process is vital. Modi supporters are often less caste-conscious as voters. That allows him greater flexibility to field candidates of the caste that will attract the most number of caste-conscious voters (something Congress does extremely well too).

Four, the right amount of saffron-ness. The BJP and the RSS have the occasional tendency to slip into tilak, pagdi and sword photo-op mode. While there's nothing wrong in such symbolisms, it further consolidates the Muslim vote already against him. Any sign that Modi will bring back the tilak-sword era only exacerbates the fear some have of him.

However, this doesn't mean there should be nothing Hindu about the campaign. If the Cong-ress will target Muslims, BJP may have little choice but to target Hindus. However, positive Hinduism will work better with the youth. Positive Hinduism is about making India modern, safe, scientific, free, liberal and a society with good values. Rather than attacking other religions and saying Hinduism is better, it should be about how we can be better Hindus. Cleaning up some of our holiest temples, infected with bad management and corrupt priests, would be a wonderful step for instance.

Five, one additional source of votes is consolidating the female vote. Safety of women is a concern valid enough today for a section of women to switch their votes. Modi's tough, no-nonsense image makes him seem like the kind of guy who can deliver on it. He can win this vote, but his remedies for women's safety should not be regressive. Any attack on the personal freedom of the youth will backfire badly. People need safety, but they also need personal freedom and choices.

Six, Modi needs to deal with 2002. Not in an awkward, avoid-at-all-possible-costs manner, but take it head-on. This will require some personal risk and introspection. The answers will have to come from within. Tough questions need to be answered.

Narendra Modi did well in Goa, but Delhi is no beach town. To get there, Modi, and a fully supportive BJP, need to pull out all stops. The odds are tough, and if he can make that happen, it will be a minor miracle. But then again, isn't our country the land of miracles?


sathyasryan said...

I loosely agree with Chetan on all the points except the sixth one. There is nothing to be taken head-on about 2002. His actions of transforming gujarat is testimony enough.

He is a leader with a clear vision and verifiable credentials and that is a rarity in Indian politics.

Aravamudhan Gopalaswamy said...

Modi was born in meshana on 17th sep 1950- His ascendant is vruchika, mars the lagna lord is in its own sign at lagna along with moon, the 9th house lord (one who fulfills aspirations and give luck )-moon is neecha here but attains neechabhanga rajayoga positioned along with lagna lord. Both mars and moon are in the constellation of saturn lord of 3rd and 4th ( 3rd house of brave,fearless and determination and 4th being good health and strong mind ).jupiter,the lord of 2nd and 5th house purva puniya is in the star of mars,lagna lord. jupiter is in 4th house of kumbha which is very good. moon is in 10th sign from jupiter. karmasthana 10th house has both venus lord of 7th and 12th along with saturn 3rd and 4th are located in simha sign, owned by sun. venus is in its own star venus -puram . saturn is in the star of sun, lord of 10th- this give him mass appeal among people.
combination of 7th and 4th lord venus and saturn is good at 10th house- it gives him public contacts at government level since they are in sun sign. 3 planets mercury,sun and ketu are in mercury sign kanni where mercury attains uttcha- exalted. All planets in this sign mercury,sun and ketu are in the star of sun, lord of 10th house.
mercury lord of 11th is exalted gives him the power of speech.

in short four planets are in sun star, two are in saturn and jupiter is in mars star, lagna lord while mars is in jupiter - exchange of stars while venus is in its own star puram.

All 9 planets are located in - lagna -moon and mars
4th sign - jupiter
10th sign - venus and saturn
11th sign - sun, mercury, ketu
5th sign - rahu in saturn star.

Modi runs moon dasa from 1st oct 2011 and currently he runs moon -rahu bhukthi from 1-5-2013 to 31st oct 2014
Rahu is in saturn star at jupiter
house wheras moon is also in saturn star. saturn is in sun star at sun sign simha aspected by jupiter standing in mars- lagna star at saturn house will surely elevate him to the post of P M.

This horoscope is very powerful with good strength of saturn and sun which are important plants to elevate one to the top governmental position.

Moon dasa runs till 2021 and he will govern india and establish good government,dharma. sure he will build lord rama temple before 2021.
kindly make your comments based on this horoscope of modi.

jayasree said...

Thanks for the analysis Mr Aravamudhan.

For the Vrischika lagna that you have taken, I have only 2 questions.

(1)How could Moon dasa be beneficial to him as it is a Bhadaka dasa?

(2)How could Rahu Bhukthi in Moon dasa be beneficial to him at the election time, when it will be the running dasa- bhukthi?

Aravamudhan Gopalaswamy said...

Thanks for your comments.Currently modi has jupiter transit in gochara at 8th house mituna and also he has saturn transit in 12th sign from moon- 7.5 years sani transit. Still with the adverse position in gochera, he got elevated to the chairman post of poll management committee. There is a strong wave in his favour inspite of such adverse gochara transit of saturn and jupiter with respect to his moon sign viruchika.

Regarding your question- yes for fixed sign-9th house is said to be bhadaka house (cancer sign)- moon is in lagna sign along with lagna and also attains neechabhanga raja yoga. Also quite opposite force to the sign of 9th is 3rd house of confidence,strength,determination the saturn . Moon is in saturn star and rahu is in saturn star both while saturn is in simha at sun star- Hence inspite of tough opposition from all fronts from his own party and from other political parties, he will demolish such opposite forces with the power of saturn , mars,sun, jupiter,venus,
mercury,moon and will win over to be elevated to P M post.

Last three elections to gujarat state assembly , many predictions given by many astrologer went wrong and modi horoscope proved its strength by his winning all the three times with good majority.

harinee said...

Is there any astrological significance to the devastation in Keadarnath? Its very sad that so many Hindu pilgrims lost lives. Why is God himself testing the faith created by him? This gives fodder to the missionaries.

jayasree said...

Dear Ms Harinee,

The devastation at Kedarnath is akin to what used to be said for earthquakes - that earthquakes do not kill, it is the buildings that kill.

If one looks at the records, cloudbursts and heavy rains causing land slides are annually happening in the Himachal slopes, but that event happening in a crowded pilgrim site has caused the enormous loss of life this time. It is noteworthy that the temple has stood up amidst this calamity.

This year's rainfall prediction happened as expected. Refer

The solar ingress and the Vijaya varusha phalan is seen in the disaster. The Vijaya varusha phalan says that there would plenty of rainfall, it also says that there would be fear, perhaps indicating a fear-causing rainfall.

There are no records as of now to track the corresponding events in the past. I have a few records on landslides and cloud bursts in the Pakistan side and in Leh. As I expected they contain the earthquake symptoms + Martian influence to show the heat- cold mix up. Similar astrological combinations can be seen in Tornado astrology too. But how to pinpoint the place where they strike is still intriguing. More research is needed in this area of astrology.

As of now Venus- Mercury nearness continues which is the prime reason for rains. This continues throughout the year and would manifest as heavy snow / fog in the upcoming winter. If I find time, I would blog on the astrological factors of this disaster and similar ones.

On your worry of why this should happen in places of divinity, it does happen. There is even a prophecy that Badrinath would go under waters one day.

In recent memory such a calamity happened in Mantralaya where cows were killed by the floods. We can recall with eerie memories of how Dwaraka was engulfed by surging waves as though they were chasing the people. The people who were already devastated by the exit of Krishna and loss of Vrishni menfolk must have been having the worst ever suffering and fear at that time.

Similar devastation must have occurred in 1500 BC which caused river saraswathi to slide under the ground and caused the entire population of the Indus - saraswati basin to dislocate. Such calamities are bound to occur in the present times of Kali yuga. It all boils down to whether we are safe in the midst of such calamities. Let people do Mrithyunjana japa regularly to escape from such calamities.

Unknown said...

Jayasree madam,

I request you to write about the Uttarakhand floods. Why so many ordinary people who went to Pilgrimage to Kedarnath temple and surrounding areas were swept away in flood waters ?

How should we perceive such massive destrution ? What should we learn from this fury of Mother Nature?


jayasree said...

Dear Ms Sarada,

I am thinking on this for sometime and will write soon.