Yes Modi has strengthened the resolve of the constituency that decides the winner, to vote for – ADMK!!!
He made two mistakes.
Mistake no 1:-
Meeting Rajini at the thick of the election campaign. He could have met him any time before or after elections, but the timing is ill- conceived or ill-advised. Following this, his meeting with Vijay made even the educated middle class to squirm. TN has come a long way having gone through the travails of filmi influence on voters. It is time we move on from filmi influence. But Modi is trying to resurrect it! Should we need it any more?
Earlier TN BJP cobbled up an alliance with all the self-seeking leaders who deserved to be shunned. BJP gave them life by this alliance. But people quipped it as a TN BJP affair in trying to get a foot hold for itself in the melee. But as a tall leader, Modi must have been guarded in his actions. His meeting with Rajini and Vijay is ill advised. Does Modi want the TN voter to be influenced by the film stars in voting? Even educated people did not like this act of Modi. Modi praised kalam in a meeting. Had he met him that would have set a high standard that is expected of him. But he was after select film personalities. Disgusting.
Mistake no 2:-
Usually Modi had not spoken on specifics in poll meetings. It used to be a general oration. In the same vein his equating of ADMK with DMK and blaming them as doing vindictive politics shows once again that he is not on his own in thinking but led by others.
Within 24 hours of this speech in TN, the same Modi said that he would probe the corruption cases of Congress Govt and get them punished within a year after assuming office. Is this not vindictiveness? What he accused ADMK and DMK, he is himself saying that he would do.
If ADMK had not done anything for the people, as he said then, why did he praise JJ Govt in Hyderabad a few months ago, saying that if people are not willing to see Gujarat model for growth, they can look at TN model that has done very well for growth. Was he wrong then or now?
The effect of these two mistakes is that JJ retaliated and gave out statistics on how TN is ahead of Gujarat in the most crucial human indices. The next day TOI made it a headline with more info on how TN is well ahead of Gujarat. JJ has started asking pointed questions for which BJP cannot answer. This turn of events is well noted by the core constituency including middle class who had to choose between ADMK and BJP. They are very clear at this moment, with few days to vote.
Who can get things for TN, JJ with 40 seats or JJ with 25 seats? Can Vaiko or Sudheesh get Cauvery water or Mullai periyar water to TN, when a dispute arises? They would perform worse than the DMK in such a situation as they owe their seats and status to the BJP and will be towing the BJP line. Good or bad, JJ has earned a name as a strong willed person, as a go-getter and an unflinching fighter. Now that she has been forced to talk these issues, people are reminded of what she can do which others can’t. This is consolidation of support for her. JJ has shown that she would not even bother if it is Modi or anybody when it comes to getting the benefits for the state. Fans of Modi may not grasp this. But an average person on the street has been reassured of these specifics from JJ.
All of us are speaking from the safety and comfort of our lives and sitting in front of the computer. A Rahul Kanwal goes to a hotel and tries to fathom the mind of an elite voter. But how many of us know the reality check at the streets, at the millions of homes of the lower middle class and the poor for whom the impact of DMK and ADMK may mean a world of difference?
The common refrain from an elite voter is that that we must not have the 2 Kazhagams and must have an alternative. The same dialogue was spoken two terms ago and Vijaykanth (VK) sprang up with NO specific goals of public welfare but only with personal goals. When people realised that he had to be shown the door, BJP had given a new lease of life to him. All the elements that have to be shunned had been befriended by the TN BJP. On the day this alliance was inked, many people made up their mind on whom not to vote. Even BJP sympathisers won’t vote for these parties. Even the opinion polls that give 3 or 4 seats to BJP alliance, does not give to any of the alliance partners including Vaiko. Politicians make mistakes, TN BJP made the mistake, even Modi made mistakes, but people at the ground level don’t.
The core voter base is watching all the news - what Modi says, what JJ says and what the coterie of BJP says and more importantly what OPINION POLLS say - all thanks to the first freebie given by MK, that is Television.
The opinion polls say that JJ would get 25. Who would get the rest? It is DMK according to opinion polls! A Modi fan would gloat over the fall of projected seats for JJ, but the common man on the street sees the other message - that DMK is rising! He cannot and would not sit quiet at this projection. Talk to any common man anywhere in TN. Once he starts trusting you he would tell why this news is bad for them and why they all have to vote for JJ to keep off DMK.
Every time an Opinion poll says, that JJ would get less and DMK would get some, their resolve increases that they must stop the surge of DMK. That is happening now in TN.
In this scenario, what does Modi offer? I was asked this question? If these people vote him by voting to Vijaykanth or Vaiko or even a well known BJP leader like La. Ganesan, can they assure them what they now enjoy under JJ. What is the guarantee that Modi / BJP would not ally with DMK and offer berths to Dayanaidhi Maran or Balu? An auto driver asked me this. Past history is like that. Murasoli maran was made a minister by Vajpayee. It is from Maran, the DMK kept growing in fine-tuning corruption, which was ultimately followed by Congees in UPA 1 and 2. By now aligning with fit-to-discarded parties, BJP had shown its prowess and readiness in aligning with DMK if it needs. But ADMK is the only party that would not align with DMK at any time!!!
Can one believe in BJP after seeing it holding hands with VK after all his running after DMK + Congress and all talks of suitcases? Can anyone think that people would simply forget all these tamasha and believe that VK is sanitised after having aligned with BJP? May be people like us believe that VK and Vaiko are great after joining hands with BJP. We are padiccha muttal (educated fools). But they (core voters) are unlettered wise people. Only educated fools could bring out an outcome as was seen in Delhi assembly polls!
Few of them I chatted with said a salient point. They said today they may be toiling in the street to make a living. But their daughters are getting education. (Generally the people I talked to, talk high about their Daughters – something you can see in TN and not even in Gujarat as I find this as a sign of better treatment of females. The male-female sex ratio is above the national average in TN.) The girls read everything and tell them who says what. (May be the boys don’t read newspapers / magazines and don’t bother to discuss with parents). People say Modi wave - Modi wave. They asked so what? What do they get by voting him in this poll when they are already getting what they want from JJ. They are not for upsetting the present peace or trying new options. JJ has sent clear signals in every speech on what she can give. The confidence that she has given was not given by any other leader in TN.
Here also, MK was the first culprit. When JJ was almost comfortable in coming back, MK announced free TV and was seconded by Chidambaram and the results turned topsy turvy. This was unbelievable at that time. But JJ realised the potential of DMK in using this, and she did not leave out anything to be used by MK in the next (last) elections. Hers was a sequel and not original. If only DMK had made any worthy freebie, he would have stolen the results from her. So blame MK, blame the people before training your guns on JJ. But then JJ was clever in converting many of them as productive capital. Cattle and goats are really a good investment as we could see immediate surge in quality of Aavin milk and Aavin profits after that. That is a very good economic recycling. For the information the USA gives many free allowances from birth to death. Even college students have to pay heavy amounts as part of their tuition fees to pay for old age pension scheme of the American Govt.
JJ is not a Rajaji or Kamaraj. But a Rajaji could not control MK when he opened the liquor in the State. JJ had been the only leader after MGR, capable of stopping MK. As long as MK is there, JJ must be there to stop him, or else the State would suffer. VK had no qualms in joining hands with MK. Even BJP would go to him just for the sake of power.
Today the core constituency is well aware of who is who and who is to be strengthened. The more they hear about surge of BJP or DMK, the more resolved they are in keeping them out. They say that throughout TN, this would happen. They may not tell this if someone asks. The initial reaction is that they vote for DMK! That is because of the fear of dada-giri. They would not tell so easily unless they trust you.
Even TOI carries out a survey of the people who attend the meetings. During poll times, it is busy time for them all. Money + booze + biriyani is the remuneration they get. No discrimination in doing this work (attending meetings) among political parties. Nowadays they expect Mutton biriyani instead of chicken biriyani as it is costly and therefore not affordable by them. They are ready to attend any meeting and shout slogans. But ask them to whom they would vote. They have their own choices – not influenced by the meetings they attend. They have already made up their choices on sound logic which you and I cannot think from what we read from the computer.
Until now JJ has not made any wrong move or wrong speech. She is the only leader in the country who had not made any direct or indirect appeal for vote on caste or religion basis. This was glaringly seen in her campaign in Triplicane day before. Anyone in her place could have been tempted to talk appeasingly to Muslims who are 30% of the electorate there and who congregated in large numbers in that campaign. She did not talk anything for Muslims there which was well noted by the Muslim residents themselves. Is this not the right way to take the country forward? Name one leader who had not spoken on caste or communal lines.
Those calculations are of course there in choosing the candidates for all parties. But JJ had kept up the campaign above all these things which she herself mentioned in her last campaign stop yesterday.
She has been guarded in her response to BJP all along. Even when the Tauheed faction of Muslims left her and offered their support to MK on the pretext that JJ had not spoken anything on BJP, she did not speak against BJP. She did not even stop them. But only after Modi tweeted that he was going to meet Rajini that evening, she took up the Cauvery issue in the meeting that evening shortly before Modi met Rajini. Modi had vitiated the atmosphere unnecessarily and mindlessly. I strongly doubt that he had been advised so by vested interests to drive a wedge between him and JJ.
TN BJP is perfectly right in trying to cash in on Modi's popularity to broaden its base. I have consciously mentioned TN BJP, not just BJP in my comments. Even JJ did not bother about the alliance that TN BJP was making. But as a tall leader Modi must have been guarded in his actions and speech.
My grouse is that he has given in to filmi influence which TN has suffered too long and needs to shrug itself out of it. Principled stand is what Modi signifies. He must not give room for anything otherwise of it.
Common complaints against Jayalalithaa answered:-
In that scenario, to arrest the indiscriminate growth of liquor trade, liquor mafia and fleecing of people, JJ stopped retailing by private people and brought it under govt control. That is how the present Tasmac was born. Making profit out of it was not the purpose of the govt when it was started. But the number of outlets proliferated in MK’s period such that the shops were set up near schools and temples and at every bus stop. It was MK who used the Tasmac money to pay for the freebies. The freebie culture started by him could not be stopped in the next term (present) and it won’t go over to next term as there is nothing to offer!! Freebie has reached the saturation and Tasmac money would find other uses in future.
Only if awareness level increases in liquor consumption, Tasmac growth can be reduced. There is always the danger of illicit liquor coming in and liquor barons growing up if the Govt closes Tasmac. Without check on these two, it is not possible to close it once for all. They can be reduced and are getting reduced now. There is a court order too not to have them on highways. Like this the number of outlets must be reduced while taking care that no one resorts to illicit distillery. This is the background. Who owns the distilleries is something which no one can isolate someone to blame.
If JJ had not given the list of freebies, MK would have taken up some and garnered votes. It was a necessary evil that JJ had to do. In the previous election she didn’t do it. But even now she is going in a measured pace in distribution. But I have one thing to say. I do see poor people really benefited by the things. We can see how their lifestyle had improved with the freebies. In their families the mothers had to toil at work and at home. For the kind of physical work they do, the freebies are definitely a boon. It is up to us, who can afford those items not to claim them. One can do if they choose to. If JJ makes any conditions on freebie distribution, hell will break loose on her, insinuated by MK and other politicians.
Looting natural resources:
I have written my opinion here:- http://vijayvaani.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?aid=3117 Today even judiciary thinks that after a certain long years in jail, if there is good behaviour, they can be released. On Dharmic side (for which readers come to my blog to know my views), no one is permanently condemned for an offense. If so, there is no meaning in prayers, in seeking pariharas and prayaschitthas from our paapam. Even God is known to pardon sinners who have suffered in retribution and reformed. If we are to suffer for our sins wholesome, our lives would be very unbearable. It is by prayers, good conduct and repentance we are leading better lives – even though we are not aware of it.
Whether Rajiv killers expressed remorse or not:-
Their role in the conspiracy, the court charges and subsequent bungling in the case of Perarivalan are in public domain. The last one (bungling in Perarivalan’s complicity) is simply unacceptable in terms of fair justice.
On SL issue, JJ was dead against LTTE – which is 100% justified. But once LTTE is no longer there, she started giving voice for SL Tamils.
When Modi said in the last before previous election in Gujarat that he will not give free electricity but give 24 x 7 electricity, no opposition party opposed it or instigated the people against it. Would any opposition party do so in TN if JJ makes a similar announcement? If we do away with free electricity, we also can have 24X 7 electric supply.
JJ blaming others on electricity:-
Today Modi has no friend from any regional party of stature. Unnecessarily he had spoiled the equation with JJ. All that he can have is the seats in Hindi belt where BJP and Congress are face to face with each other. Heavy polarization of Muslims against BJP is happening in the until now conducted elections. Muslims are doing tactical voting.
We in TN also must do tactical voting to keep off DMK. Love for Modi would harm TN at this juncture. Somehow BJP led or BJP backed govt would be formed in the centre. But don't throw mud on our heads in TN. Whichever govt comes in the centre, JJ would join it. She must be in commanding position in that set up if we have to get benefits for TN.
In TN, the opinion polls are a farce as we saw a different result in Exit polls in the assembly elections which was opposite of what people actually voted. The people for whom the elections matter (ADMK or DMK) would not speak out their mind but show in the ballot box. Even as I was writing my comments yesterday, JJ had spoken same thing in South chennai. She opened her speech with a declaration that she did not speak on caste, religion or such things but only on issues throughout the campaign. That is a well noted point by many sections of people but not reported in the press. The Tauheed Muslims and others have pledged their support to her so also many groups in the last couple of days.
Notable is the visit of Pujaris sanga to meet JJ at her residence yesterday. This sanga has 35 to 50 lakh members who are pujaris of all the village temples in TN. This sanga is promoted by none other than VHP, presided over by Togadia! The silently happening thing in TN is that VHP that has control over all temples of TN through the Pujaris is not supporting BJP and its alliance partners TN. They have pledged their support to JJ.
Two reasons for it:- (1) Hindu temples and issues around Hindu temples are safe under JJ. If JJ is weakened, all the work that is going on to revive Hindus, Hindu temples and Hinduism in TN are going to be affected. (2) Togadia - Modi who were best buddies once, parted when Modi aspired for national ambitions. Read today's TOI to know the background. It is something between them that they have to solve.
Let me remind the readers a basic reality. India's problems cannot be solved by a single man or in a few years. Modi is projecting himself as a single man govt! Of course Modi is a sincere person and we believe him. At the same time he does not have solutions to many problems. As far as TN is concerned, he did not even assure anything on electricity or on cauvery issue. Only the TN govt has to do them - of course with a friendly central govt. Any govt under any one that is to come in the centre would heed to TN's hopes and demands only if JJ has numbers. Let us look at our home before looking at Indian scenario.