Friday, May 20, 2016

DMK ate up the votes from Vijaykanth – PWF alliance (Poll analysis 2016)

The biggest surprise for many in the State is how the DMK- Congress combine managed to bag 97 seats together (DMK = 89, Cong = 8) while their vote share not long ago was woefully less that saw a nil score in 2014 elections. 2014 election was a fragmented one like 2016 elections. In 2014, the addition of main allies PMK and DMDK with the BJP could make 18.5% that could fetch them just 2 seats. The learning from that was when the anti ADMK votes divide among other / many parties which otherwise would have gone to the DMK, it is advantageous for the AIADMK.

Based on this calculation, Jayalalithaa risked to go alone this time too. Six smaller parties were in the fray together on one side having a total vote share of 15% at the most. On the other side DMK was with the Congress which had a much beleaguered vote share. After GK Vasan had come out of the Congress, even Congress leaders were not confident of winning this election. Popular example is P. Chidambaram going into oblivion.

Even the DMK was at its worst nightmare when it failed to rope in Vijaykanth to its side. It was thought at that time that the DMK has half lost the elections. By this split, it meant that the anti AIADMK votes would get split between DMK combine and the 3rd Front.

But what does the actual polling show? Take a look at the vote share data from the Election Commission.




AIADMK had bagged 40.8% whereas it was 38.4% in 2011 and 44.3% in 2014.

The DMK got 31.6% now compared to 26.8% in 2014 and 22.4% in 2011.

In earlier elections too, the DMK’s own vote share had not exceeded 26%. Even in 2006 when for the first time freebie culture was introduced by the DMK to rope in votes, it could get only 26.46 % votes and could form a minority Government with the outside support of the Congress. Except 1996 when the DMK got 42% votes owing to negative image of Jayalalithaa due to corruption and pompous marriage of her foster son, the DMK could not get more than 26% on an average at other elections. So 26% was considered to be its solid support base.

Based on this calculation, in the absence of any election issue and absence of anti-incumbency, the DMK could not have touched the present 31.6%, but it had. Similarly the Congress gaining 6% vote share from its previous 4.3% in 2014 is a surprise. After 2014 a considerable chunk of Congressmen have left along with GK Vasan. But that has not dented the Congress vote share. Instead the Congress managed to increase it to 6%.

So from where has come this addition to the DMK- Congress kitty?

It may be said that the attrition has come from the AIADMK. From 44.3% in 2014, AIADMK share has come down to 40.8%. But then AIADMK’s individual share in 2011 was only 38.4%. At that time the DMDK and others contributed to make her combine score 51.9% vote share that wiped out the DMK- Congress combine of 39.5%.

The present elections show that AIADMK’s popularity is not on the wane. In 2014 the additional 4% was due to the projected prospect of Jayalalithaa becoming the PM candidate. In the absence of any hype she could get 40%.

But from where the DMK could increase its vote share from 26% to 31.6%?

A look at the vote share of the 3rd Front explains the increase.

A comparison of the vote share of the 3rd front parties between 2011 and 2016 reveals what had happened in this election.

Parties

2011
2016
DMDK (Vijaykanth)

7.9%
2.4%
VCK  (Thiruma)

1.5%
0.8%
MDMK (Vaiko)

-
0.9%
Communists (2 together)
4.4%
1.5%
Vasan (Congress faction)
From Congress share of 9.3%
0.5%

All these parties together had polled only 25 lakh votes in 2016, whereas in 2006 when Vijaykanth started his party and contested alone his party polled 30 lakh votes. It was a big fall from 2006 to 2016.

From the proven vote share in 2011 of the 4  parties (DMDK, VCK, MDMK and the Communists) of 13.8%, they had only polled 5.7 % now.  So 8.1 % of vote share had fled from them. That had not come to the AIADMK but gone to the DMK combine and a smaller fraction to parties like Naam Thamizhar.

Similarly GK Vasan could not bring to him any solid share from the parent Congress party.
Initially when the 3rd Front was formed, the vote share seemed to be with them intact. Perhaps after  Vijaykanth joined them and completely exposed his limitations, the voters seemed to have drifted away. These voters were all the time brainwashed against Jayalalithaa. Though the 3rd Front wanted a non- DMK and a non- AIADMK Government in power, in action it means unseating Jayalalaithaa. So they looked for venues to vote against Jayalalithaa, irrespective of how bad the venue (DMK) happens to be.

In other words, the anti AIADMK votes did not get split as expected, to the fragmented parties. Instead they had congregated at the DMK- Congress combine and taken on the AIADMK. The pathetic show by the 3rd Front leaders including Vaiko in abstaining from the contest had resulted in the flight of voters to the DMK, who all had the one point agenda of unseating Jayalalithaa.

In the case of GK Vasan’s party, it is possible that initially a considerable chunk of the congress vote share could have come with him. But when he aligned with the 3rd Front, many leaders left him to join the parent Congress party. By that way the vote share had stayed with the Congress.
The seats won by the DMK- Congress in the Delta districts, contrary the expectation that these regions would not vote for the DMK thanks to the Gail project, is perhaps due to the last minute disillusion of the Congress supporters upon Vasan joining the 3rd Front.

If only he had aligned with AIADMK, the delta districts could have voted for AIADMK- Vasan combine. A major part of Congress votes would have stayed with him. This would have resulted in considerable reduction in the Congress vote share. Congress would have drawn a blank in that scenario. This would also mean that Congress (INC) headed by Sonia would be weakened forever in Tamilnadu and DMK could never find a useful ally in the Congress. That opportunity has been lost forever, it seems.

A shortfall in the Congress kitty means shortfall in the overall vote share of the DMK.

This is gives 2 lessons for  Jayalalithaa.


She must have aligned with Vasan. It was rumoured then that she was ready to give him 15 seats on the condition that he must contest in her ‘Two leaves’ symbol. That was a prestige issue for Vasan, but he must have agreed to it on the reasoning that he could not get his party’s old symbol. Jayalalithaa has every reason to be apprehensive about a new symbol, for  there was no time for Vasan to popularise the new symbol. Winning is most important than anything else. So Vasan must have aligned with her and made a roaring win. Instead he chose a new symbol which led Jayalalithaa to keep away from him.

On her part Jayalalithaa must have gone for a compromise to reduce the presence of INC in Tamilnadu. It is like – cut the allies of your enemy to disarm them. DMK minus Congress would means reduced the vote share and therefore the seat share. By helping Vasan gain a base, the national Congress party can be permanently reduced to a non-player in Tamilnadu. Sometimes statesmanship calls for some give and give policy

The 2nd lesson is how well a scenario may be 3 months before the elections, for the kind of comical show that Vijaykanth put up, thereby reducing credibility of the 3rd Front,  one must expect that anything could go awry with them at the last minute. Jayalalithaa, a seasoned politician must have anticipated the dissipation of the Front anytime before the elections and even the possible attrition of votes from the 3rd Front. Who will be benefited by that attrition? Certainly not the AIADMK.

During a last couple of weeks before the elections, the Jaya TV put up propaganda material on the funny ways of Vijaykanth and asked should one vote for him. Yes, people don’t want to vote for him, but to who else they must vote? Vijaykanth’s mantra is anti- Jayalalaithaa. We can’t expect his supporters to vote for AIADMK. They would go after the DMK as that was in their mind till the time Vijaykanth aligned with the 3rd Front.

Though the AIADMK had won the elections now, the fact remains that the DMK has gained a strong footing. The DMK too must not gloat over the vote share because it is only a default vote. Where these default voters would turn in future is something only Time will tell.

I think Jayalalithaa can make an effort to bring them back to her side.

Their grouses are simple and trivial.

They hate her because they think she is arrogant, she makes men bend (prostrating before her – this is something Vijaykanth kept repeating as a case of men being made slaves), she doesn’t meet people and party men etc.

Another issue planted in their mind is corruption. With no major corruption charges against her Government, her expected victory in the DA case would boost up her image as a clean person. That would give her an opportunity to make an impression on her haters.

Let Jayalalithaa take care of the trivial issues alone. It would take the steam out of the hate- Jayalalithaa mentality of very many average people.



31 comments:

sury Siva said...

//her expected victory//

?

!

where ? in a scale of 0-1-2-3-4-5

subbu thatha.

jayasree said...

If 1 means lowest chance & 5 highest chance, my rating is 5. The winning streak of the same dasa bhukthi will continue.

Raghuraman said...

DMK and ADMK locked horns in 170 constituency in a direct fight. In that DMK won 89 and ADMK won 81. Definitely ppl are against Jaya but vote arithmetic went in favor of Jaya. About dozen seats were won in margin less than 1000 votes. Tight contest and may be Jaya dasa bukthi favored her.

sury Siva said...

My dear Raghuraman Sir,
J got not less than 41 % votes.
K got a little above 36 % Add his allies. Even then he moves around 40 %.
In our style of democracy, the horse that comes first wins the race.
When > 40 % vote for J, saying "definitely people are against J" is to speak less uncharitable.
From another angle, it now appears, those who started disliking V ,because of his antics, (he is not where he was when he contested first ) appear to have moved towards K. In that perspective, the author's analysis is brilliant.
From a third angle, if only our Nation adopted (it wont) preferential system of elections, our A would have managed at least 15.
I am only sorry for the Communists.
subbu thatha.

Raghuraman said...

Dear Sir, I agree on one point that J had guts to ignore the alliance and stood in all 234 seats. That is a big feet even MGR did not dare to attempt. K will never even try that. Still i have fear if this victory would give J more arrogance than be humble.

jayasree said...

@ Raghuraman,

List down the incidents / instances of arrogance of Jayalalithaa and explain how they affected governance and the public at large.

jayasree said...

@ Surya Siva,

Preferential system of election is not suitable for a country like India where the electorate is not an informed one and the media is always biased towards specific parties. The currently concluded election results also reveal how personal attacks and hate politics have spoiled / or is the only issue for nearly half of the electorate. Look at the comment of Mr Raghuraman, he cannot say anything beyond 'arrogance'. That idea is implanted in their minds. In the ads of DMK, one can find numerous such notional ideas on the character of Jayalalithaa. There is absolutely no issue based talks or data-supported views. The DMK has no capability of a healthy debate. Can Stalin or Karuna do a healthy and fact based debate with Jayalalithaa? They can't.

Infact only karuna & co are promoting sycophancy around themselves by keeping their supporters brain washed. Let me remind what Dr Noboru Karoshima, the chief of Tamil studies, said about the Dravidian (read DMK) movement. He said they (DMK) have an anti-intellectual tendency. (http://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2010/12/dravidian-movement-had-anti.html). DMK can not survive if the supporters start thinking and asking questions. Those who have thought, didn't vote for the DMK. Read the article in the DMK's support magazine Vikatan (owned by Maran brothers) விளம்பரமே வினையாகிப் போனதா? -திகிலில் உறைந்த தி.மு.க (http://www.vikatan.com/news/tamilnadu/64368-was-huge-advertisement-turned-against-dmk.art?artfrm=editor_choice). The thinking people were not swayed by the DMK ads which was all false.

What binds them (DMK - its supporters and supporting media) is the nexus they have by which each one benefits by each other's association in immoral ways. In this set up, preferential voting will be a big tragedy.

Our country has not yet matured into a healthy debating democracy like the US. Overall there are 2 blocs (BJP and Congress) but these two are based on division of people or by dividing people. One is based on the so called secular ideology of minority appeasement of which DMK is an integral part (or how else it could have swept Kanyakuamri seats?) and to counter this, the other bloc has to necessarily side with / take up the majority stance. Is this healthy? In the US this trend is picking up (by Trump) and people are against it. Only when we have blocs based on developmental ideology, the electoral system can be healthy and preferential election will be meaningful.

In this context, JJ is not practicing this minority vs majority politics. She is harping on welfare model where the freebie culture also comes into play - induced by competitive politics she has to play against the DMK. If the DMK is weak, she wont touch the freebie culture and only concentrate on economics based welfare. Within the constraints, she is linking social and economic clause to freebies.

Therefore what is needed is ideological blocs based on welfare and development model at all levels and at all India level to make our democracy a healthy one. In such situations, preferential voting will be meaningful.

sury Siva said...

Madam,
The larger complaint is only a e i o u

a .... arrogance. That is sheer public perception. Once she takes a decision she is firm on it. She does not dilute any decision once taken. May be it is not statesmanship, or even a cunning politician.

e.......easing people out and showing them the door. just like karukappilai.

i.......I did that. I did that. I shall do. The statements reveal the Ahamkaram.

O........Omnipotent. That She is the Be All and End All. Never allowing anyone in the hierarchy to take decisions. A centralised admininistration. (There could be a re thinking on this at least.). Though I doubt that you may not agree, much of the disaster at chennai floods could have been averted had she allowed her Engineers to take the decisions, then and there.

U.. ... U -are - nothing -before- me attitude . apparently her body language is that she is pleased when people prostrate before her.

She could allow people from opposition parties to have their say. There is nothing wrong in allowing others to say whatever they want. Let them exhaust themselves and then U stand up or you allow your ministers to stand up and reply to all their arguments.

You see how British Parliament conducts itself. there also there are fierce arguments, not unoften turning into ugly gestures.

My own grouse is that she is not possibly adhering to What Valluvar would say:
Epporul Yaar Yaar vaay ketpinum
Apporul Maipporul Kaanpathy Arivu.

Your election analysis is just brilliant.
I am a regular reader of this blog.

subbu thatha.

jayasree said...

@ Surya Siva

a. Its a perception, you yourself have said. She is one who does not speak much. That's her character. She is like that form childhood. She can't help it if people interpret it the way they think.

e. Suppose she keeps the tainted or doubtful or inefficient ones, (like Karuna) is it ok?

i. When does she say "I' "I"? Does she publicize after every work? Does she take congratulatory shows like Karuna used to do? Her "I" comes only in reply to her rival DMK and in election time. What other word can she use than "I" for the work done?

o. Your view on Chennai floods is wrong. If you have said this after reading my article on Chennai floods (http://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2016/05/was-jayalalithaa-responsible-for.html), I am sorry, I can't talk with you on this as you are not open to know the facts and accept them.

On being omnipotent, she does have a hold on ministers and party men but allow officials (IAS and IPS including) to work. She is mostly dependent on officials and the inputs from them. During Chennai floods and in removing encroachments on the water ways at that time, the free hand of the officials and her support to them was visibly evident. There are many news reports on this at that time itself. By hierarchy if you mean ministers and party men, she is indeed having a control over them to check misuse and corruption. As she once said to Arnab in an interview, she has to put up a strong-man or omnipotent face and aura to manage her party having more than 1 crore people.

One can see in recent elections how she delicately handled the ministers against whom some corruption charges came up. As elections were due, she allowed them to have natural exit by putting them in tough constituencies and lose but not allow them to perpetuate their clout in their own constituencies. DMK in the same situation would not do that. DMK's big wigs like Ponmudi, Durai murugan etal made it again inspite of lot of complaints against them by cadres themselves. They would perpetuate their clout and grow in their won turf despite any misdemeanor by them.

U. Issue of prostration. That is Dravidian culture! It happens in DMK too, but ADMK does not make it an issue, thats all. And initially, that is in the early years of her political career, one could see her stop them or say not to do to those who prostrate. Being a woman she can not physically stop them like Modi once did. There are constraints. She has told them in public not to do (check old pics). But no one stopped. She ignored all that for some time. Nowadays we can see her reciprocate by folding her hands.

Falling on the feet is done by all in Tamilnadu. Even JJ did it for MGR. So many DMK men did it for Karuna, Even older men do it to Udayanidhi! You can browse the net and know. But this is made an issue by the DMK in JJ's case. And reading public like yourself also taking it as an issue is unfortunate.


I suggest you read the following link on the life and style of Karuna. All your aeiou would suit Karuna. https://vimarisanam.wordpress.com/2016/05/14/%E0%AE%A4%E0%AE%BF%E0%AE%B0%E0%AF%81%E0%AE%A4%E0%AF%8D%E0%AE%A4%E0%AE%B5%E0%AF%87-%E0%AE%AE%E0%AF%81%E0%AE%9F%E0%AE%BF%E0%AE%AF%E0%AE%BE%E0%AE%A4-%E0%AE%95%E0%AE%9F%E0%AF%8D%E0%AE%9A%E0%AE%BF/

JJ is nowhere near him.

You have commented on Assembly sessions. Are you convinced that the DMK (opposition) does a really good job in the Assembly to give room for healthy debate? On most occasions, ministers are giving replies. She is like a ring master extracting work from all. See Jaya TV also when the Assembly session is on - they telecast it.

On Thirukkuarl you have quoted, how do you know that she is not listening to advise / advisors?

Finally, I asked Raghuraman to give the list and you have given. But this list is not different from what the DMK always say.

Thanks for your compliments and being a regular reader.

jayasree said...

@ Surya Siva,

(Read as follows)
On the Thirukkural you have quoted, how do you know / say that she is influenced by others and not grasping the reality behind / inner meaning? What incident you can to say this? The Sasikala factor was long dead, but repeatedly told by the DMK. Read my article http://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2016/04/paid-news-by-toi-on-sasikalaa.html

sury Siva said...

@Jayasree

I did not have any particular incident in my mind when I quoted the THIRUKKURAL.

Everytime, the assembly meets during the last ten years or so, on some pretext or another, there is always shouting / walk outs for no meaningful reason. No fruitful discussion takes place in the assembly. Within just five to ten minutes, there is some provocation on some thing followed by shouting.

This happens whether DMK/AIADMK are the ruling side or opposition side.
My appeal is to both parties to show restraint and discuss things that are relevant to the discussion.

Again, what I indicated in my previous note, that there subsists a popular perception.
I never said I shared that perception. I agree with most of what you say.

Perceptions need not always be true.

Thanks.

subbu thatha.

Nandha said...

Vanakkam mam,

Once again ur predictions have come true regarding new CM in the recently concluded elections. I am an avid reader of blog from 2009 and a student of astrology. After going through the article "will karunandhi come back" and I have few doubts astrologically.
1. U have pointed out venus as badhakadhipadhi in MK horoscope as 11th lord for chara lagna, it wont do favor to him. Now my question is Venus being a badaka, the placement of it in 12th house, should have to give good results as per "kettavan kettidil kittidum rajayogam" why this did not happen here in case of MK?.
2. As far as JJ's chart is considered, she too runs badhikadhi jupiter dasa (for midhuna lagna) and currently saturn bhukthi. u have pointed that for good results, dasa and bhukthi lords must be in good angles. MK lost in 2011 due to this factor. When we applied the same to JJ, she is running jupiter dasa and saturn bhukthi which is in 6-8 axis. so how this principle did not affect her.

Since we have case study of 2 prominent leaders, i thought u can shed more light into this from astrological point of view. Pls forgive if anything is wrong as i am a mere student in astrology.

Yours truly
Bala

kavirimainthan said...

Jayasree,


Great ...!!!


With best wishes,
Kavirimainthan

Prabhu Swaminathan said...

Mam,

What do you think about timing of JJ's swearing in ceremony. My astrologer friend says that it is not the apt time based on her "Pakshi".

jayasree said...

@ Surya Siva,

Know the caliber of DMK from the following news item. The DMK has a unhealthy and goon like nexus with officials and media. Mr Murugan IAS, told in a debate how Karunandhi openly mentioned the names of 3 serving IAS /IPS level officers in an election meeting and how they are helpful to the DMK. In the same breath he assured plum posts to them once he assumes power. OMG, you can not allow the DMK into power. Read the following news Deccan Chronicle.

http://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/current-affairs/210516/chennai-political-split-wide-open-in-khaki.html

Chennai: Political split wide open in khaki

Chennai: Lobbying on political line is nothing new in Tamil Nadu police department. But this election had exposed many, when they overstepped the permissible limit of leaning towards the DMK. The split among top IPS officers was visible and it created tension within the department, which should be functioning professionally and not politically.

After the victory of AIADMK, more skeletons are tumbling out of police department cupboard about how certain serving officers, some placed in high positions in state police headquarters, had not only leaned towards DMK but had also ‘campaigned’ in their own way to put their favourite leaders back in power.
Grapevine is that an officer in the rank of DGP on Thursday morning, as soon as the counting started, called up one of his juniors and instructed him to get the escort and security vehicles ready to go to Gopalapuram, where DMK leader Karunanidhi resides.

The officer was one of the few in the police department who hoped that DMK would be back to power. But by 11 am others in the police headquarters informed him escort and high security vehicles would remain at Poes Garden, where AIADMK chief J.Jayalalithaa stays. Of course, the officer had planned and made many moves. The same officer reportedly stripped an officer in the rank of IG, transferred by EC, of his official car when the latter was heading home. The IG was asked to alight midway and forced to take a cab home at that night. The DGP was making it clear that he was not going to entertain any officer believed to be faithful to the ruling party. It looks like he had already made up his mind to be with DMK believing the lobby of IPS officers secretly creating an illusion that Karunanidhi is going to be CM after 2016 assembly elections.

When DMK treasurer M. K. Stalin said he has the list of pro-AIADMK cops, Karunanidhi was quick to make amends by saying that no political vendetta will be on officers. May be, he had this officer in mind when he said so, sources said.

Sources also said at least two officers - one in the rank of DGP and the other an inspector general – had took a break from their respective offices in Chennai and camped in certain districts to help certain DMK MLA aspirants in campaigning. “Of course, they had nothing to with election related works. But they toured certain areas in official vehicles to help campaigning,” sources said.

jayasree said...

In the last few days of his campaign Stalin said that his son or son-in-law would not come into politics. Yesterday his son said that he would enter politics to help his dad! Thank God, DMK lost or else by now we could have seen all the heirs taking position to terrorize and rob wherever possible.

jayasree said...

@ Nandha

There is difference between the dasa lords of the two leaders. MK is running the dasa of the Bhadaka which is the lord of the inauspicious 11th house and also the 4th house. JJ is running the dasa of the 10th lord (karma) which also happens to be the bhadaka. It didn't favour her in its own bhukthi when she was incarcerated. But when the bhukthi of the 9th lord started, she was released on bail and won the case and now the elections. In her case it is the period of Dharma karmadhipathi lords that helped. In the case of MK, the Bhadhaka dasa lord did not have any relieving feature.

To explain this better we must know what is a Bhadaka and what it can do. A Bhadaka is an indicator and carrier of karmic past brought into the present birth and make one undergo the effect of it. Its lordship (bhava), its position and the sign(s) it aspects are the regions that are affected by the bhadhaka or in other words where the karmic past gets manifest.

For JJ the 7th lord Jupiter is the Bhadhaka indicating the karmic effect on kalathra (marriage) and kids (by the significance of the planet, Jupiter). It is in Kalathra bhava thereby showing a spoiled kalathrasthan. Its aspect on the lagna shows the extent of suffering she would have had on account of it. There ends the Bhadaka effect on her life.

The same planet (Jupiter also happens to be her Karma (10th) lord. 10th and 9th lords are capable of conferring the highest Raja yoga called Dharma karmadhipathi yoga.

Let me list out the conditions for this yoga to fructify.

1. Conjunction of the two (9L & 10L) or the mutual aspect of the two. This is known to many.

2. Exchange of houses between the two or the presence of even one of them in the house of the other.

3. If the trikona lord namely 5th lord comes into some relationship with the 10th lord, as mentioned above causes this yoga.

4. The benefics in the horoscope, even though they are not connected with the 9th or 10th lord, can confer this yoga in their bhukthi, in the dasa of 9th or 10th lord.

5. Even if one of them (9L or 10L) happens to be the lord of the inauspicious houses such as 3rd, 6th, 8th and 11th houses, if they some how get connected with the 9th or the 10th lord, they would confer this yoga in their bhukthi in the dasa of the 9th or 10th lord. As per this rule, Saturn the lord of the 11th for Mesha lagna and the lord of the 8th for Mithuna lagna (JJ) can give this yoga in its Bhukthi in the dasa of 9th or 10th lord (Jupiter) if they get connected.

6. If Rahu / Ketu happen to occupy a kendra or trikona and if the sign dispositor of Rahu / Ketu in that position gets connected with the 9th or 10th lord, this yoga would occur in the Bhukthi of Rahu / Ketu in the Dasa of the 9th or 10th lord with whom the sign dispositor is connected. Note that the conjunction of Rahu or Ketu with the 9th or 10th lord in that position does not cause this yoga.

7. If the 9th or 10th lord also happens to be the lord of the kendra or kona respectively, the also this yoga occurs. Eg. Venus for Makara lagna.

8. Now comes the most important combination of this yoga.

(continued)


jayasree said...

Point 8. Now comes the most important combination of this yoga.

When the 9th and 10th lords also happen to be lords of 8th or 11th houses, this yoga does not arise if they have connection ( as told in the first point). "Sambhanda maathrENa na yOgam labhathE narah" says verse 21 of Jataka Chandrika authored by Kalidasa. This is what JJ has. Her lagna is Mithuna and 9L sat happens to be 8L. Similar is the case with Mesha lagna for which Sat, the 10th lord also happens to be the 11L.

There are 2 commentaries for this verse. One says that there should be no connection with the kona lord for the 8th and 11th lord. 9th is a kona. Similarly 5th is a kona. So for Mesha lagna, Sat (10L & 11L) and Jup (9L) must not be connected with the 5L Sun to confer this yoga in their dasa- bhukthi. (Note that this is contrary to the 3rd point which says that connection with the 5L is will bring this yoga. As per the present rule, Mesha and Mithuna are exceptions).

For Mithuna lagna (JJ's lagna), Sat (8L & 9L)and Jup must not have connection with the 5L Venus. If they have, this Dharma karmadhipathi yoga would not occur.

Another commentary for the same verse (above) says the 9th and 10th lord for Mesha and Mithuna must not have any connection with each other for this yoga to occur.

In JJ's horoscope the sign dispositor or star dispositor of Jup or Saturn is not Venus, the 5th lord as per the first commentary. Jup and Sat are not in connection with each other as per the 2nd commentary. This has conferred the Dharma Karmadhipathi yoga in the dasa of one and in the bhukthi of the other.

This is a rare rule and JJ's is a rare case.

Hope this clarifies your doubt.

In the case of MK, his current dasa lord is a Bhadaka. A bhadaka going to 6th, 8th or 12th would continue to be a bhadhaka. There is no kettavan kettidil rule here. A bhadhaka can be best understood not as a kettavan but as an agent to deliver the effect of past karma. It happens in 2 ways - physical or mental. In physical manifestation it causes disease (Purva janma krutham paapam vyaadhi roopena peeditham). In mental manifestation, it is anything like fear, desire, selfishness, anger and such vasanas. One does things on account of them and reaps the results. MK did exactly that and reaps the results of it in Bhadhaka dasa even since it started.

For MK the Jup and Mars are the 9th and 10th lords. The 5th point above is applicable to him. Though Jupiter (9L) is also the lord of the 6th, it is posited in the 5th house, in the house of Mars (10L). Therefore it confers this yoga in Mars dasa - Jup Bhukthi or Jup dasa - Mars Bhukthi. MK was born in Mars - dasa - Jup Bhukthi. Perhaps this has catapulted him to great heights in life.

He took up a party post for the 1st time in Jup dasa - Mars Bhukthi. That post was that of the Treasurer. He has fantastically used it!!

But the Baddhaka in sayana avastha removes the bhadhaka nature. Eg Modi born in Libra lagna for which Sun is the Badhaka in sayana avastha. He under went the worst period of tribulations and challenge to him in power on account of Godhra terror and hate campaign and tricks against him by those in Central Govt and survived due to sayana avastha of the Bhadahka. (Modi's lagna is Libra only, as I got his birth details from the editor of the Saptharishi dot org who got it from the brother of Modi. Modi's kalathara bhava for Libra tallies with his married life).

jayasree said...

Kaverimainthan ji,

Thanks for your wishes. I consider you as one of the finest political an commentators of the current times. I am honored by your compliment.

jayasree said...

@ Prabhu,

It is Simha lagna, that is the only possible and better lagna for that day. No issues. More than Pancha pakshi, JJ's star dispositors of the planets at the time are very auspicious.

Raghuraman said...

பிரிகால் இண்டஸ்ட்ரீஸ்.....
கோவையின் மிக முக்கியமான தொழில் நிறுவனங்களில் ஒன்று... லக்ஷ்மி மில்ஸ் குழுமத்தை சேர்ந்தது...
கோவையில் செம்மொழி மாநாடு நடந்தபோது , அதற்கு நன்கொடை கேட்டு அப்போதைய திமுக மந்திரி பொங்கலூர் பழனிச்சாமி மிரட்டியதில் பிரச்சினை ஆரம்பித்தது....
அவரும் அவர் மகன் பைந்தமிழ் பாரியும் பிரிகால் நிறுவனத்துக்கு குடைச்சல் கொடுக்க ஆரம்பித்தனர்.... உச்சகட்டமாக அந்நிறுவனத்தின் மனித வள மேம்பாட்டு அதிகாரி ஒருவர் தொழிலாளர்க‌ளால் அடித்துக்கொல்லப்பட்டார்... கோவையே அதிர்ந்து போய் நின்றது..
.
பிரிகால் தலைவர் வனிதா மோகன் கருணாநிதி வரை பிரச்சினையை எடுத்துச்சென்றும் பலன் கிடைக்கவில்லை...கட்சிக்காரர்களை அனுசரித்துச்செல்லும்படி உபதேசம் கிடைத்தது...
ஒரே மாதத்தில் பிரிகால் நிறுவனம் தன் தொழிற்சாலையை உத்தர்கண்ட் மாநிலத்துக்கு மாற்றிக்கொண்டு சென்று விட்டது....அந்நிறுவனத்துக்கு சப்ளை செய்து வந்த ஐயாயிரம் வெண்டர்களும் [ சிறு உபரி பாகங்களை சப்ளை செய்பவர்கள்...] , ஆயிரக்கணக்கான தொழிலாளர்களும் ஒரே நாளில் தெருவுக்கு வந்தார்கள்...
இதுதான் திமுகவினரின் சாதனை..... இந்த ரவுடித்தனத்தால் தான் திமுக திரும்பத்திரும்ப மேற்கு மண்டலத்தில் தோற்கடிக்கப்படுகிறது...
இதை சரி செய்துகொள்ளாமல் , அல்லது அதற்கு முயற்சி செய்யாமல் என்.கே.கே.பி ராஜா போன்ற அடாவடி ஆசாமி களை வைத்துக்கொண்டே அரசியல் செய்து வருகிறது திமுக...
பிறகு எங்கிருந்து வெற்றி கிடைக்கும்..? கொங்கு மண்ட‌லத்தை கரித்துக்கொட்டி என்ன பயன்?

###Courtesy:Sriram

jayasree said...

@ Raghuraman -and Sriram (that twitter guy of the DMK IT wing?)

Thanks for acknowledging that DMK is a rowdy party and MK advises the affected parties (industrialists) to adjust with his party men. Not only in Kongu mandalam, DMK is known for rowdyism everywhere. All those well known rowdies and their heirs are now elected to the Assembly. And analysts (read presstitute) gloat out that DMK is powerful opposition!

Raghuraman said...

@Jayasree

I don't think Sriram is from DMK IT Wing. He is connected to my cousin in FB and seems BJP sympathiser

jayasree said...

A BJP sympathiser writing in support of the DMK seeking reasons so that it can mend its ways?

jayasree said...

He is @sriramMADRAS, a DMK guy who went missing after the poll results. He only used to write stuff like this.

Raghuraman said...

Person I mentioned is Sriram ktl in FB

jayasree said...

What I gave is twitter ID, don't know his FB ID. But the material you have posted here can not come from a BJP sympathiser but only from a core DMK guy. Many of them are now are venting out their frustration and finding out reasons.

jayasree said...

Mr Raghuraman posted info on how the DMK's extortion and rowdyism caused its downfall in Kongu region. On the positive side, the restoration of power supply in JJ's period in the last 5 years resulted in industries back in operation which is reflected in the complete sweep of Tirupur, Erode and Coimbatore by the ADMK.

Now another similar news from Madurai region has appeared in TOI Chennai edition. This news on DMK as rowdy party is well known to everybody including the Press. But they kept quiet till the polling date but wrote high about the DMK. Now there is no other way than speaking out the truth.

From

http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31807&articlexml=Madurai-prefers-status-quo-due-to-law-order-23052016005026


May 23 2016 : The Times of India (Chennai)

Madurai prefers status quo due to law & order issues

Padmini Sivarajah
Madurai:


The AIADMK's victory in eight out of the 10 assembly constituencies in Madurai district, which have a fair share of urban voters, likely shows that the people are more keen on projecting Madurai as a place safe for investments and industries.The AIADMK bagged 8.22 lakh votes out of the total of 17.8 lakh votes polled in the district. Madurai was always considered a stronghold of the DMK, but the party has failed to maintain this status since the 2011 election when it lost all the seats. It was able to perform slightly better and gain two seats in the recent assembly election.

Madurai District Makkal Sakthi Iyakkam president A Asokan voted for the AIADMK. “Madurai, through the eye of the Tamil cinema, is projected as a violence-prone region, which is one reason why industries are not flourishing here.Many violent incidents, like the murder of former minister Tha Kiruttinan, the Dinakaran newspaper office burning incident, among others, made Madurai prominent at the national level for the wrong reasons, and this occurred during the DMK regime,'' he said.

K Selvakumar, a small time trader in the city , says traders like him have enjoyed a peaceful five years during the last regime.

“We used to face a lot of threats from rowdies, who just walk in and demand goods or money . Not anymore,'' he said. Traders in places like Bibikulam, Narimedu and Arapalayam have experienced this on a daily basis during the DMK rule, according to him.

A Abhishek, a first time voter who is into IT business, says he did not see any major drawback in the last five years and did not see any need for a change. “I also read a lot about corruption by the DMK. The venture capital fund in the AIADMK's manifesto for young entrepreneurs like me attracted me,“ he said.

S Madhupriya, a resident of Chokkikulam, says during the DMK rule, purchasing land was a big problem because whenever somebody contemplated buying a prominent spot within the city or a larger plot outside, a DMK person would show up in this deal.

“This has not been the case for the last five years, so I am in favour of the AIADMK,'' she said.

Nandha said...

Thank you very much madam for spending ur precious time and answering my queries on Dasa-bhukthi comparison of JJ and MK.

Your explanation is very lucid and it shows ur profound indepth knowledge of astrology. The concept of dharma-karmadhipadhi yoga and and the rare subrules and its manifestations in bringing out the favorable results for JJ is well explained. It is new to most of us and u have rightly enlightened that it should not be connected with kona lords. So I think it is because of this she broke the traditional alternative voting pattern of TN and become CM for the subsequent term.

In this concept, i have another general query. Will an exalted planet in retrogression is considered debilitated? and what will be the effect of it during its dasa period. For eg in case of rishaba lagna, Jupiter is lord for 8th and 11th house and it is exalted in kataka in its own star punarpoosam, but in retrogression, how to interpret the effects of dasa of 16 years. Being the owner of 8th house, can we interpret that it will bring manifold problems as 8th lord being exalted or vice versa as it is in retrogression ( i.e. good results).

sury Siva said...

Madam,
Will u please inform me your email id.

I am in dire need of an analysis of the horoscope of my grandkid. Despite my being an astrologer of some know how, I am not able to unravel the mystery in the horoscope of this 7 year old kid who is born in USA.

please help.
yours ,
subbu thatha
meenasury@gmail.com

jayasree said...

@ Nandha,

An exalted planet in retrogression loses its exalted power. Same with debilitated planet. retrogression cancels exaltation or debility as the case may be. But this can not be viewed in isolation. As you quoted an example, the inauspiciousness of the 8th and 11th ownership must be taken into consideration. This inauspiciousness gets cancelled due to retrogression of the exalted planet. This can also be modified depending on the aspect and association of any other planet with this retro - exalted planet. Kona lords or benefics aspecting this Jupiter also reduces the meleficness.

With particular reference to Jupiter, I have found in my research that even if Jupiter is afflicted in any way in a horoscope, there is only 2% chance of the ill effect taking place in Jupiter Maha dasa. On the other hand, the planets in the pada of Jupiter (8th and 11th lord in your example) can wreck damage depending on their ownership and position in their period provided they don't get modified by beneifc aspects or association. Another issue you must see is whether Jupiter has any parivarthana yoga with any other planet. This will also greatly reduce the ill effect of retrogression of a planet.

For your retro- Jupiter in exaltation, ill effects will be minimal in its Dasa. Prayers can greatly reduce any expected ill effect.