PS:- Read the latest update on rainfall check in Part 4 by clicking here.
UPDATE made at 5-30 PM, 19th July 2016.
In olden days, this day of Aashadha Pournami was brimming with activity with farmers coming to meet astrologers with a small quantity of the seeds of planets that they want to cultivate for the upcoming season.
At the time of Moon rise Pujas were done for "Satya vaak devi Saraswathi" after which the astrologer would start weighing the seeds in a balance by invoking the Satya vaak of Saraswathi. The same seeds would be weighed again in the next evening (Prathamai at Moon rise) to see if the weight has increased or reduced.
If the weight has increased for a particular plant-seeds, that planet would be cultivated. If a set of seeds weigh less, that plant would not be grown.
This shows that excess moisture is expected to be present on this day of Aashadha Pournami. That moisture increases the weight of the seeds. Those that have absorbed the moisture are supposed to do well and are cultivated.
Those seeds that neither weighs more nor less, are not supposed to perish or decay. That is the rationale.
Even waters from collected from rains, wells, rivers and ponds were weighed to know whether they would be benefited by the rains. The weighing is done for two days as mentioned above and then compared.
If well water weighs more in the next day (prathamai), there will be no rains in winter.
If rain water weighs more the next day, moderate rains are predicted.
If tank or lake water weighs more when weighed the next day, there will be abundant rains.
To my shock and disappointment, I could not see Full Moon at all till now in my place of observation. The sky is overcast and the moon was seen as a hazy and dull substance for some time around 8 PM.
More disappointment came from the wind-front. The air was absolutely still all through the night till now. I am scratching my head how to interpret it as there is no clue given on still-air condition in Brihad Samhita. Just hoping to see some info on wind direction from meteorological sites. Any flow from North, North east and east is very good. Moderate results for wind from North west, but nothing good for other directions.
Anyway, the observation pointers are not one and only-one in astrology.
Looking for rains on 23rd and 24th is the next observation step to assess NE monsoon.
Thereafter 29th July is another important observation day of Adi- thithi kuri which is also known as Aashadha Rohini Yoga day. I will post the details on 28th July.
So far the daily Garbottam observation (which I am yet to post) shows average rains for Chennai in October and better rains in November and less rains in December. Overall it is average NE Monsoon as far as Chennai is concerned whereas planetary conditions are quite good for NEM at that time ensuring good prospects for other parts of east coast.
UPDATE on 20th July, 2016.
It had rained in my place after Pournami was over / coming to an end. Though the rain was mild, it had cooled the day well and one can feel the moisture laden air around. Going by the 'weigh the seeds' technique, the present climate would easily make the seeds weigh more than yesterday (Pournami). That means, the upcoming season would benefit crops. In other words, there is no failure of rains particularly in Karthigai.
UPDATE on 25th July 2016.
There was no rain in most parts of Chennai on 23rd- 24th July - the day of Chathurthi though it was often cloudy. Rains on this day would indicate very good NE Monsoon. However rains were reported in many parts of interior Tamilnadu.