Friday, September 2, 2016

Rainfall check -6 (For September 2016)

Update added at the end of the article on 29th September 2016.

Previous articles:-

Rainfall check - part 1  (Pre-Monsoon showers)
Rainfall check - part 2  (Cyclone Roanu in Bay of Bengal)
Rainfall check - part 3  (Late arrival of SW Monsoon)
Rainfall check - part 4  (For July 2016)
Rainfall check - part 5 (For August 2016)

The scenario for Chennai September 2016 is promising with rains already having started. Right from August 20th, the planetary combinations for rainfall in Southern parts of India became favourable. It was written in my last month's Rainfall check.

In my post written on February 6th 2016, I noticed scope for formation of storms in August 2016 and wondered whether storms are common in August.


It did turn out that a Low Pressure had formed in the Bay in August and lent some impact to Chennai.
On the Update given on 30th August, I wrote about the upcoming rains.


The rainfall during Sun’s sojourn through the star (Purva Phalguni) is something which will become proof of prediction in any current period. That means, if it rains in a particular place on the day / at the time of Sun entering a star it can be taken to mean that it will be wet in that place throughout the period of 13 to 14 days of Sun’s movement across that star.

On 30th August, sun entered Purva Phalguni after 2 PM. It started raining then in my place of observation and it continues to be wet / raining till the time of writing this on 1st September. The daily Garbottam chart also shows that it will rain on a regular basis during this part of Sun’s movement.

The rainfall prediction based on daily Garbottam observed 6 and a half months ago (Between February 22nd to March 23rd) is given below. Dates 1,2,3, 8 and 9th September had good Garbottam in the corresponding dates and also Moon joining malefics like Rahu and Mars. This is shown in red colour in the chart. The rule is that if sun or moon joins malefics on the day of Garbottam, the rainfall period will see rains accompanied with thunders / storms / hail storms.

Another feature in the Garbottam chart given below is that there was a solar eclipse on the Garbottam observation period. Usually eclipses would mar the rainfall on the rainfall- impact day. That comes on 15th and 16th September. The corresponding dates also did not show Garbottam features.




Planetary combinations for rainfall.

Planetary combination for rainfall (ativrishti yoga) continues to exist in the month of September.
(1) Budha- Shukra Sameephya (closeness of Mercury and Venus) is getting over on 12th September. This marks the end of SW Monsoon for the country.

The next closeness begins of October 27th 2016 and lasts till 29th December. That would ensure good rainfall in general thereby ensuring presence of NE Monsoon at that time. Day to day details of that period would be written in a separate post soon.

(2) Presently the following planetary combinations are favouring rainfall in southern regions of India.
a. Mercury is combust and in retrogression. Retrogression started on 30th August. It was accompanied with a spurt in rainfall in Chennai. Combustion starts on the night of 6th September. This is likely to trigger a meteorological phenomenon. The IMD foresees upper cyclonic circulation to be formed on 5th September.









b. On 1st September Mercury is crossing Jupiter by retrogression. This triggers rainfall. Mercury is crossing in Uttra Phalguni star which signifies countries of the South. This includes the regions of Eastern Ghats, Mahendra parva, Malaya parva (Kerala), catchment areas of Kavery, Vena (Pennai) etc, Ceylon, Kollam and western parts of Karnataka.

c. Sun is crossing Rahu on 3rd, 4th and 5th September. This is also conducive for a trigger factor for some meteorological phenomenon. Rainfall is assured on these days in regions covered by Purva Phalguni namely South east India from Oddhisha to Andhra.

d. Till September 9th all planets are behind the Sun. This ensures good rainfall until then in south east regions of India. After that Mercury crosses past the Sun to be in front of it thereby breaking the line-up. By 12th September Mercury goes farther away from Venus thereby bringing an end to rainfall. Normally when this happens in September, it was found to mark the end of SW Monsoon in the past years.

e. However Venus – Jupiter continues in Virgo even after 9th September. On 9th Venus comes out of Nirjala Nadi – that is its sojourn in Uttra Phalguni. When Venus is crossing Uttra Phaoguni the rainfall will be deficient. Venus comes out of that phase and starts influencing rainfall along with Jupiter in the southern parts of India. Virgo signifies South. Hastha (in which Venus now passes through) and Uttra Phalguni (in which Jupiter is moving) signify regions of the South as mentioned in point b.


f. On 17th September Sun enters Virgo. At that time Sun, Mars and Saturn will be in alternating signs. Sun will be in Virgo. Saturn and Mars will be in Scorpio, the sign that alternates with Virgo. This is a very good sign of plentiful rainfall. The same planetary combination occurred during Chennai floods last year. But unfortunately this combination will exist for only 24 hours. Mars will move out of Scorpio on 18th September. Looking at Garbottam chart 17th shows moderate rainfall, but 18th is dry. This might indicate that favourable meteorological features might come up around that time but would get decimated soon. Thereafter the rainfall features are weak till the end of September. 

UPDATE on 25th September:-

The Garbottam chart for Chennai was almost exact on realization of rainfall except on 2 days. They were Sep 8th and Sep 15th. 

The corresponding Garbottam day for Sep 8th had moon conjunct with Rahu thereby indicating rainfall accompanied with thunder or storms. Surging clouds were witnessed on the evening of 8th but it did not rain. The plausible rationale is that the Garbottam features were not strong. My data shows that the corresponding day (March 1) had cloudy and cool breeze between 8 AM and 9 AM. This should have given rains, but a major planetary event was happening on 8th. Mercury was re-entering Leo backwards on that date. Usually, when it enters the next sign, it had triggered rainfall. But now it is entering the previous sign by backward motion, it had spoiled the rainfall! A spoiled rainfall / failed Grbottam must give plenty of rainfall in the next possible date. It happened on Sep 15th!

Ironically Sep 15th was  not supposed to have rainfall due to solar eclipse on the corresponding date. But it rained on 15th. When I checked the data and the thithi etc I found that though Amavasya started at 10-34 AM on March 8th, solar eclipse started on the early morning of March 9th. Garbottam had happened on 8th March around 11-30 AM. This was soon after Amavasya began. This shows that Garbottam can give rains if eclipse was not running at that time. This also means that the entire day need not be rejected on account of eclipse. Only the exact timing matters. Moreover the deferred rainfall due to Mercury's re-entry into the previous sign had to give its due on this date as it is the next major Garbottam realization day. 

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The general rainfall scenario for this month of September followed the planetary predictions - but with an exception. From September 21st onwards, heavy rains lashed Andhra Pradesh and Telangana with Hyderabad receiving the century's highest rainfall for September during this period. Many areas were flooded with Mahanadi posing flood-threat.





Earlier in the article I have noted down the date - 17th September as the date capable of giving heavy rains. But the combination dissipated within 24 hours. 

The heavy rainfall that started on 21st can be linked to the movement of Mercury. Mercury was in retrogression from August 30th onwards. It did rain on that date. Further on Mercury moved backwards and entered the previous sign Leo on September 8th - 9th. The re-entry failed to give rain to South India / Tamilnadu (Mercury in Uttara Phalguni) at that time. Mercury kept moving into the sign till 21st September. On that date it reached the limit of its retrogression and on 22nd it started the forward motion. These two dates were marked with heavy rains on the regions denoted by Purva Phalguni as Mercury was moving in that star. The regions coming under Purva Phalguni are those from Andhra Pradesh to Oddhisha, Kiskinda (North of Deccan plateau) South of Vindhya mountains. These regions received heavy rainfall on the dates starting from Mercury's turn around motion. 

These rains will continue till 30th September as Mercury continues to be in Purva Phalguni until them. Thereafter it enters Uttara Phalguni. Uttara Phalguni indicates region south of Andhra, that is, Tamilnadu. On 3rd October, Mercury re-enters Virgo where it will be chasing Jupiter. Normally entry into a sign has come with rainfall. This time it is re-entry in the forward direction. This is likely to trigger rainfall as Garbottam chart for October for Chennai shows rainfall from October 4th onwards. 



UPDATE on 29th September:

It rained well since 26th September in Chennai in my place and other parts of Chennai. The Garbottam chart shows rains on 25th September and not on dates after that. When I checked the data, I found that the Garbottam occurred on 17th March in Arudra star. Though the corresponding date is 25th September, the garbottam in Arudra can give rains for many days in the rainfall realisation  date. As per rule if good Garbottam occurs in Arudra star in the month of Panguni, it would rain for 24 days in the realisation period. 

Quoting from my first article in the current series on Rainfall observation (here):-



On March 16th and 17th when Moon was transiting Arudra there was cloudiness at night and day. Sun was hidden for most part and there was pleasant breeze. The result started in 26th September and is likely to continue for 24 days as per rule. The further Garbottam chart for October shows wetness on most days in October though the intensity of rains is not high on all days. 


Another feature corresponding to the rainfall date is the forward transit of Mercury after retrogression in Purva phalguni star. Generally Purva Phalguni gives rains. Moon is also presently transiting the sign of Leo where Purva phalguni is located. All these combine to ensure wet climate.

SWM retreat:

As per IMD, SWM started retreating from 28th September onwards. In the article above I connected the retreat / withdrawal to the ending of Mercury- Venus closeness. It occurred on 12th September. But the actual retreat started on 28th September. When I checked the distances between Mercury and Venus, I found out a new revelation. Mercury and Venus were at their maximum gap of 48 degrees from 28th September onwards. This lasts till 5th October. From 6th October onwards, the gap is getting reduced gradually degree by degree. Therefore the learning is that monsoon retreat starts when these two planets reach the maximum distance between themselves.  

On 27th October the closeness between Mercury and Venus begins thereby ushering in a rainfall period again which can be linked to NEM. On that date, Mercury is in deep conjunction with Sun and will be behind Venus by 7 degrees. This is perfect setting for good rainfall. 

However my Garbottam chart for October shows that on the corresponding Garbottam date for 25th October - which was April 17th, , wind direction changed for the first time to south- south west. That means wind direction will be from North - North east from 25th October onwards. I am eager to check this onset of wind in October. The details will be posted shortly. 



4 comments:

Srikanth said...

Interesting post once again Mam, I think your macro analysis is pretty much on track most of the time, I could see some difference in the inferences using Garbottam though it will possibly come out of experience. Nevertheless I feel you are on right track. Hats off to your patience in doing this all the way for the year.

Siva said...

Great analysis Madam and mostly you are on target. Waiting to see your posts always. Thanks Siva.

jayasree said...

Thanks Mr Srikanth and Mr Siva.

On Mr Srikanth's observation, what you call macro analysis pertains to planetary combinations that indicate a meteorological event / feature. So far that has not failed even once in the current research. Where the expected output of rainfall became less, the causes can be traced back to 2 other factors in the current season.

One is that on the day (July 7th) when the closeness between Venus and Mercury began, Venus came out of combustion. Its reappearance after being eclipsed by the sun was in the star Punar poosam. This would cause dry conditions and mar rainfall. I wrote this in part 4 of Rainfall check (http://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2016/07/rainfall-check-4-for-july-2016.html) and wondered how this would affect the other rainfall yoga that started then. The region under influence is Central India, North of Vindhyas and NE India. It had turned out that though rainfall features and troughs did form influencing those regions, the rainfall was as heavy as expected. So it is now learnt that this is one feature that can affect rainfall. Infact this kind of reappearance of Venus (after combustion with Sun) is the basis of Mayan predictions.

The 2nd feature is the Sapta Nadi chakra which every agriculturist until a century ago was aware of or closely following. In the present research, I have found that to have played a bigger role in affecting rainfall. (Refer Sapta Nadi chakra in my Feb blog http://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2016/02/garbottam-chart-of-january-2016-impact.html. It was quoted in Part 4 of Rainfall check)

As per that, right from 8th July, Saturn has been in Vayu nadi - in anusha - which mars rainfall. Note that date is next day of Venus - Mercury closeness. That date also suffers from Venus appearing in Punarpossam which mars rains. The current trends show that these two features could not be ignored. Though overall rainfall scenario was pretty good astrologically otherwise - and also on the basis of scientific factors as predicted by IMD and Skymet, the gathering clouds did not end up in plenty of rains in the regions as anticipated.

In the same period between August 22nd and September 2nd, Venus moves through Uttra Phalguni (Uttram) which is Nirjala nadi - means no rains though cloudy. So these two planets (Saturn and Venus) in unfavourable nadi during this SW season had played a balancing role with other rainfall yogas. Our ancestors - the common people - had largely depended on this Nadi chakra for judging arrival or quantum of rainfall.

Saturn comes out of this Vayu nadi on 17th September, but we must wait and see whether the weakness of Venus due to re-appearance in Punarpoosam continues. But by then the closeness with Mercury would come to an end. Having observed the efficacy of Nadi chakra, I would be checking those factors too in writing down NE predictions.

In the upcomimg days / NE season, 2 planets are going to be dry Nadi. One is Mercury which will be in Hastha - forming Sowmya Nadi from October 9th to 17th. It would reduce rainfall. Another one is Sun which will be in Swati - in Vayu nadi between October 23rd to November 6th. Though this is also a windy Nadi, it would not completely stop rains. These two must be incorporated in judging rainfall yogas of that period.

(continued)

jayasree said...

On Garbottam, you can find that almost on 80% of the dates I had given, it had rained in my place and in other places in Chennai. In 20% of the dates, the clouds did gather but failed to rain. I was amazed to note that my place received pre-dawn showers on the day I mentioned pre-dawn in the chart. What I found was that when the planetary combinations favour south, the garbottam dates had given good rainfall. Today it rained heavily in my place between 5-30 pm to 6- 30 pm. The observation time must have been pre-dawn to dawn in February which I missed. My records show that there was good Garbottam at afternoon between 11 am to 2 PM on that date (25th Feb). This means it must rain between 11 pm to 2 am tonight. I must wait and see. (The chart shows 24th Feb for 3rd Sep. The observation is based on thithi. The corresponding date for the thithi of 25th Feb comes on 3rd Sep. You can notice a overlap on 8th Sep)

The basis of this Garbottam is the presence of meteorological features on the observation date that comes 195 days before the date of rainfall. Without knowing that, it is not possible to say whether or not it will rain on a day. In the observation period I noticed that good rainfall features extend to January which is improbable. But that could result in foggy days, I presume. Looking back, foggy days had given good rainfall now. For example today's evening twilight rains can be linked foggy dawn on 25th Feb. So Next January's foggy days would given good rainfall in July - August 2017. Interestingly next year is Kalamegha year which would give heavy rains accompanied with storms.

On Solar Garbottam, I gathered some insights from the present research which I will write in future articles.

But overall what has worked are 3 features:

(1) The Megha of the year - This year's Megha is Neela megha. It shows mixed trend, rains at places where it had not rained before but would not rain in places that usually gets rains. True so far. Refer my article for Megha concept -http://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2015/12/paavai-nonbu-to-have-started-today-so.html

Next year is Kalamegha which would give more rains than this year, but the year after that is Drona Megha (2018) which would give torrential rains. Refer my article where you commented - http://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2016/01/vaaruna-megha-causes-positive-iod-and.html

(2) The concept of Nava nayakas. Of them Meghadhipathi is important for judging rainfall for the year. This year's Meghadhipathi is Mars. It does not give widespread rainfall, but rains in unexpected places. It would give rainfall accompanied with thunders/ storms. So far only that had happened wherever it had rained.

(3) Arudra Pravesham. Its lord also was Mars thereby heightening the above mentioned nature of rains.

These 3 features give an overall summary of the rainfall in India.