Monday, February 29, 2016

Garbottam chart of February 2016 – Impact in August – September.

The daily observation of Garbottam in February 2016 will have an impact in the 2nd half of August and 1st half of September 2016. (from 11th August to 8th September to be precise).

This corresponds roughly to the 5th and 6th day of Solar Garbottam of the 14- day period in Margazhi. Having observed the Solar Garbottam earlier, the day-to-day Garbottam certainly looks a bit different and is an improvement over the indications from the Solar Garbottam. The reason could be that each day of solar Garbottam corresponds to 14 days. That means a little above 1 and a half hours on a solar Garbottam day corresponds to one full day in the impact period. This requires meticulous round the clock observation during the solar Garbottam. Due to this constraint, I prefer to rely more on daily observation.

The daily observation chart for February 2016 is produced at the end of this article. The observation chart for January 2016 can be read here.

The daily observation is purely based on physical observation of 5 meteorological features throughout the day (as far as I could). Only when Moon / Sun becomes conjunct with a malefic (Mars, Saturn, Rahu and Ketu) on a day of good Garbottam, I have made a note of it in the chart. Such a combination is said to indicate hail storms or thunder showers or cyclones. In the month of February, Moon was made such a conjunction on only one day when there was a moderate to good Garbottam. It was on 22nd February on the day of Masi Magam (Mahamaham) when the cloud and wind conditions were very good in my place of observation. Moon was conjunct with Rahu on that day. The corresponding date is September 1st. But the previous night is likely to receive good showers as the Garbottam thithi corresponds to the thithi of the previous night.

Sun hidden behind the clouds often
(On Masi Magam day - 22nd Feb, 2016)

Another observation I want to record is the exclusive thunderbolt day called “AvaNi muzhakkam” which is to happen on 24th august. Though the corresponding date in February did not have good Garbottam features, some peculiar formation of clouds were noticed. We must wait and see whether there is any Avani Muzhakkam on 24th August or one or two days before and after that. (schools of thought vary on this date).

14th Feb, 2016.
Corresponding date must have Avani muzhakkam (thunderbolts and no rains)

Another specific feature noticed was that there will be rains in the 1st half of the night on Gokulashtami day. My previous article on this can be read here. This year Gokulashtami / Krishna Jayanthi comes on 3 days. (Explanation here). On all these days there is likely to be rain after nightfall.

The nagging question on how / why  so many days of the impact period of 5th and 6th solar Garbottam days seem to receive rainfall, despite having poor Garbottam on the 5th and 6th solar Garbottam dates, seems to have an answer in the special days of the month. For example if the Garbottam features are good on Arudra day (when Moon conjuncts Arudra), in the month of Maasi, it would rain for 16 days in the impact period starting from the 195th day. The same holds good for Aslesha and Magam in the month of Maasi.

The chart shows average Garbottam on Arudra (Feb 18th) but good to very Garbottam on Aslesha and Magam (Feb 21st and 22nd). They reinforce the 16 day wet period starting from Arudra impact day which is 28th August. The chart shows wet days throughout the impact period after Arudra. Such a long period in my place of observation cannot happen without Chennai coming  in the path of rain clouds. This is not possible without SW monsoon being active.

Planetary combinations can be used to predict the Monsoon period as Garbottam is only about a specific place of observation. The rainfall combinations for the SW Monsoon period are present in good numbers this year. They are listed down.

The foremost feature, Budha- Shukra Sameephyam exists in the following period showing good rainfall in both SW and NE monsoon period of 2016.

10th May to 7th June.
7th July to 12th September.
27th October to 29th December.

Incorporating the other planetary positions, on 9th May retrograde Mercury crosses the Sun backwards thereby making the Sun to be in the lead. This is a good combination for rainfall.

Even as early as 25th April, Venus enters Aries where it joins Sun and Mercury. These 3 planets in a same sign is good for rainfall. At this time Mercury is setting and Venus is rising. This is good for rainfall. However Mercury is in the lead which indicates thunder storms / hail storms / storms.

From 10th onwards, Mercury and Venus come behind the Sun. This is good for rainfall. On May 14th, Venus crosses Mercury to take forward lead. Such a feature is a trigger for some rainfall activity. We must watch these dates for any special feature of rainfall.

On May 20th, Venus enters Taurus to join Sun. Generally this is taken as a good feature for good rainfall. But this combination falls in opposition to Saturn –Mars combination in Scorpio. Such a mutual opposition causes failure of rainfall. This goes on till 13th June when Venus leaves the opposition and enters Gemini. On 15th June, Sun also leaves the opposition.

If we look for precedence for this kind of combination in the past, only year 2012, (from among the last 5 year records available in IMD website) is somewhat closer. In 2012, Rahu was in opposition to a very good combination of Mer-Ven- Sun in Taurus. The opposition of Rahu delayed the rainfall and minimised the rainfall. The quantum of rainfall was less in the first half of the season. On 4th June, the website says, the winds picked up and rainfall occurred from 4th onwards. It was on 4th June Mercury moved away from the opposition and entered Gemini.

Taking cue from this, we can see a similar opposition of main planets of rainfall in opposition to malefics (Sat and Mars) between May 20th and 13th June. This is a period of less rainfall or lull or an indicator of delayed monsoon. From 13th June onwards, rainfall will pick up.

Putting the above in a nutshell:-

25th April to 20th May – rainfall. (pre-monsoon showers)

14th May – a trigger effect or some phenomenon.

20th May to 13th June – less rainfall (delayed onset of SWM or below normal rains?)

13th June to 7th July – rainfall continues (monsoon progresses – normal rainfall)

7th July – some phenomenon can be expected as Mercury crosses Sun and start towing behind Venus – good for rainfall.

7th July onwards all planets on one side of the Sun – good rainfall. Similar combination existed during the floods of 2011. This continues till 12th September. (Above normal rainfall?)

7th July to 12th September is an important period of heavy rainfall that could cause floods if 2011 model is reliable.

However, the Megha based prediction is that this year being Neela Megha it would rain well in the same place again and again and in places where it had not rained well in the past (at that time of the year). Simultaneously other places where it ought to rain will get deficient rainfall.

The February Garbottam chart showing more wet days in August in Chennai matches with Neela Megha behaviour.  

Update on March 1, 2016:-

The morning news on blizzards in Japan and heavy snowfall in Canada, reiterate the validity of Budha- Shukra Sameepyam. Budha - Shukra sameepam ensures good rainfall or similar conditions depending on the season of the year. In winter, it results in cold winds, blizzards and snowfall. This year the cold winds started very late in North America. It must be noted that Budha- Shukra sameepyam was not present in December and started only in mid- January. It started  from 15th January and would last till 24th March. Snowfall started only after 15th January 2016. It seems to be continuing as per today's news. Some part of the globe would be seeing hyper cold conditions until Budha- Shukra sameepyam lasts. Where is it is rainy season, there also it would rain  until this sameepyam lasts.

Sunday, February 28, 2016

Indian connection to Australian aborigines – conflicting claims and contrary proofs.

The ancestry of Australian aborigines has been a subject of interest from Indian, and particularly South Indian point of view, ever since it was found that the direct descendants (in Madurai) of out-of Africa migration shared the same genetic marker M130 with nearly half of Australian aborigines. Fourteen members of a family of Piramalai kallar community settled near Madurai are found to have this genetic marker which is also found in some sections in the Western Ghats. The same is also found in Malaysia and Philippines. (Read here)

The connection between Australia and Malaysia or Philippines is understandable due to proximity between those places, but a vast ocean separating Australia and India on the one side and Africa and India on the other had puzzled the researchers as to how the migration had happened to India. The usually hypothesised route is from Africa to Australia via India along the coast.

(The red arrow shows the route of early out- of Africa migration).

A genetic study publsihed in 2009 more or less supported this route based on the finding that the Australian aborigines shared a mutation of mtDNA (received by everyone from their mother) with some Indian tribal populations.

But a more recent study published a couple of days ago says that the genetic history indicated by the Y chromosome (received from father to son only) of the Australian aborigines show that they are indigenous to Australia and not connected with or shared by the Indians. That means the fathers were there in Australia stayed put for all these 50,000 years. The mothers came from India! This is how a commoner like me will deduce!

In between these two studies there was another study published in 2013 that said that some Indians with Dingo dogs had migrated to Australia straight across the Indian ocean some 4000 years ago.

It is nice to hear the genetic connections between regions, but to accept the theories of how the migration could have happened is a bit difficult in this sector of population as we have some local history of the past going back to thousands of years. I wrote this article at that time, pointing out that 3500 years ago, a final deluge drowned all the habitats in the Indian Ocean forcing a group of people headed by the Pandyan king to move to Indian mainland via western ghat section (Kollam to be precise) and settle down in Madurai finally.  The presence of M130 (initially detected in Virumandi Andi Thevar of Madurai) in Madurai can be traced to this migration. Earlier their ancestors could have inhabited some island (peak of submerged Western Ghats) in the West Indian ocean where Mascarene plateau was a highland until 7000 years ago. Before that period, the Pandyans of the first Sangam age were located on the eastern section of the Indian Ocean somewhere near Sundaland. That was closer to Australia.

When sea floods and tsunamis had happened, the Australian aborigines had moved further inland of Australia while those scattered in the Indian Ocean islands, moved in different directions. Those closer to Indian land mass moved to India and those on the eastern sector moved to occupy Polynesian islands. This dispersal took place almost in the same period of 3500 years before present.

Previous dispersal had happened about 7000 years ago when the Tamil speaking Pandyans moved away from southern latitudes (more closer to Australia and Sunda land) towards western Indian Ocean islands and the southern tip of Indian which was jutting out into the Indian Ocean but now under water. The same period also saw floods in Australia which are known from the preserved stories of Australian aborigines. The aborigines who had migrated inland did not venture out of Australia anytime in the past. Thus their Y chromosome had remained exclusively within Australia. Others who were outside Australia had perished although those with M130 marker had survived and spread to other places. This could be the only explanation for why the aboriginal Y chromosome is retained within Australia while the mtDNA is shared by others in India.

With the existing inputs, I can say that the aborigines had shared a common past with Indians, particularly south Indians or Tamils who were scattered in the Indian Ocean.

The foremost common evidence is the Boomerang, the unique tool used by Australian aborigines only.

An Australian aborigine holding the boomerang.

The only other place where we find boomerang in use is in the community of Piramalai kallar – the same community some of whom are found to have the same genetic marker of the aborigines!
There is yet another place where we find this boomerang. It is in Minoan art!.

The person in this ancient Minoan art is holding in his left-hand what looks like a boomerang. This is Greece of 3500 years before present. (Read my article). The time tallies with the same deluge that brought in Pandyans and Tamils to Madurai. The boomerang could have travelled along the sea route around Africa and entered the Mediterranean Sea and from there to pre-Hellenistic Greece.

Another striking similarity between Indian and Australian aboriginal population is the way they decorate the body with white marks. The aborigines are known for making white marks on the body. They are mostly striped marks and are done on religious occasions. They look similar to the marks made by Shiva devotees with white ash (vibhuthi).

The white stripes on this aborigine look like Vibhuti applied on the body of a devotee of Shiva or Muruga.

A devotee of Muruga with Vibhuti stripes on his body.

The culture of smearing white ash on the body started with the legend of Lord Shiva dancing at the death of Tripura asuras. I have deciphered it as the symbolism of destruction of Mt Toba in this article. The explosion of Mt Toba resulted in the spewing of white ash everywhere. The dance of death at that explosion symbolised in the dance of Shiva as the Destroyer was known as “Pandaranagam”. From then onwards the habit of smearing white ash had come to stay. The staunch devotees of Shiva used to smear white ash all over the body. The living examples are the Naga sages. 

Others used to wear stripes of white ash on the forehead and all over the body. Similar habits in the Australian aborigines especially during religious and spiritual events seem to have sprung from a common practice of an undated past that was developed by Indian ancestors. The practice had stayed with the aborigines, but the original cause was lost.

Another striking similarity with the aborigines is the use of a wind instrument called Didgeridoo. It is along pipe which they blow on all important occasions. The image below shows an aborigine (with white stripes in his body) blowing it.

Usually a didgeridoo player will be accompanied with a clapstick player and a song man. They go together to remote places and play out the olden myths and stories of the aboriginal community.
This information has a striking similarity to Tamil customs in two ways. One is that a similar looking wind pipe is a popular indigenous instrument in rural Tamilnadu. It is called ‘Thaarai’. It is always accompanied with a drum beaten with two sticks which is called “Thappattai”. Together they are known as “thaarai – thappattai”.

Given below is the picture of aborigines playing clapsticks and didgeridoo.

The following picture shows Tamils playing Thaarai- Thappattai.  

The long and extended wind pipe is blown in all ceremonies varying from death ceremonies to religious ceremonies in rural Tamil lands. The aborigines also do the same with didgeridoo.

The 2nd similarity is that the aborigine didgeridoo player used to go around the lands along with a song man who will sing the histories of aborigines. This is similar to the description in Tamil Sangam texts of PaaNan, the song man or the composer going in the company of instrumentalists to places and sing songs to earn a living. Verse 335 of Purananuru ( a Sangam text) is in the form of a narration by a PaaNan who identifies himself along with 3 others as the oldest clans in Tamil lands. They are PaaNan (composer cum singer), Paraiyan (drummer), Thudiyan (another kind of Drummer) and Kadamban (not exactly known but can be a dancer). This verse mentions only these 4 people as the oldest inhabitants (kudi) of Tamil lands. Aborigines with similar avocations seem to possess a history of avery distant past that is forgotten completely now but can be discovered through Tamil and Indian cultural traits.

Most of the aboriginal ideas on religion are similar to Hindu Thought. They believe in life after death. They believe in the eternity of the soul. For them life and death are in perfect harmony and death means new birth into another existence. What is more, the aborigines consider the earthly existence as similar to ‘maya’, a kind of dream state and consider death as a return to an existence from a dream like earthly life. As such they don’t think that death means an end.

This belief in after life has given rise to worship of ancestors. Like Hindus, they believe that ancestors bestow their blessings to their offspring. They come in dreams at times to forewarn of some danger. Their views on sleep and dreaming are also amazingly close to Hindu Thought. They believe that everyone leaves their soul during sleep and wander in dream like state.

This kind of spiritual ideas of Hinduism found among them with no organised head or community to lead them in their thousands of years of seclusion could not have come to them without a common ancestor in a very distant past who had separated from them long ago.

In this background, the one evidence I can see is in the image found in ancient aboriginal art that is strikingly similar to an old Hindu concept of a Goddess. Take a look at that image:

Though there is a myth related to this image of a woman, this is similar to the image of Lajja Gauri, a personification of Vedic Goddess Aditi, who was the mother of all gods and known as goddess of Fertility. The image of Lajja Gauri is shown below.

The same concept is also found in the Goddess Pachamama of Incas in the Andes.

The above is the image of Pachamama of Incas. This Goddess is also known as Fertility giver.

Similar looking images for the same concept found in 3 different places – how could this happen independently of each other? 

The only plausible explanation is the presence of a common ancestor. A common group of ancestors of the present day people (in Andes, Australian aborigines and Hindus) at a single location at a distance past had scattered far and wide. Among them the aborigines seem to have frozen into a different time scale of the past. Though genetic studies seem to raise conflicting questions on their ancestral connections, we may have to wait for more studies to come up as the cultural similarities between them and the Indians cannot be easily brushed aside as insignificant.

Related articles:-



Genetics reveal 50,000 years of independent history of aboriginal Australian people

The first complete sequences of the Y chromosomes of Aboriginal Australian men have revealed a deep indigenous genetic history tracing all the way back to the initial settlement of the continent 50,000 years ago, according to a study published in the journal Current Biology today.

The study by researchers from the Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute and collaborators at La Trobe University in Melbourne and several other Australian institutes, challenges a previous theory that suggested an influx of people from India into Australia around 4-5,000 years ago. This new DNA sequencing study focused on the Y chromosome, which is transmitted only from father to son, and found no support for such a prehistoric migration.

The results instead show a long and independent genetic history in Australia. Modern humans arrived in Australia about 50,000 years ago, forming the ancestors of present-day Aboriginal Australians. They were amongst the earliest settlers outside Africa. They arrived in an ancient continent made up of today's Australia, Tasmania and New Guinea, called Sahul, probably thousands of years before modern humans arrived in Europe. Five thousand years ago, dingos, the native dogs, somehow arrived in Australia, and changes in stone tool use and language around the same time raised the question of whether there were also associated genetic changes in the Australian Aboriginal population.

At least two previous genetic studies, one of which was based on the Y chromosome, had proposed that these changes could have coincided with mixing of Aboriginal and Indian populations about 5,000 years ago.

Anders Bergstrom, first author on the paper at the Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute, said: "We worked closely with Aboriginal Australian communities to sequence the Y chromosome DNA from 13 male volunteers to investigate their ancestry. The data show that Aboriginal Australian Y chromosomes are very distinct from Indian ones. These results refute the previous Y chromosome study, thus excluding this part of the puzzle as providing evidence for a prehistoric migration from India. Instead, the results are in agreement with the archaeological record about when people arrived in this part of the world."

Dr John Mitchell, Associate Professor at La Trobe University in Melbourne, explained: "Clearly there is keen interest in the Aboriginal community to explore their genetic ancestry and without them this study would not be possible - our first step was to return their results to them, before the scientific article was published. This collaboration in genome sequencing, to explore their ancient history, was made possible by years of engagement beforehand with Aboriginal communities."

 Further study is needed to answer questions such as how the dingo did get to Australia and why other people such as the seafaring Polynesians didn't settle on the continent. Expanding the genetic analyses beyond the Y chromosome and to the whole genome will also be necessary to completely rule out external genetic influences on the Aboriginal Australian population before the very recent times.

Lesley Williams, who was responsible for the liaison with the Aboriginal community, said: "As an Aboriginal Elder and cultural consultant for this project I am delighted, although not surprised, that science has confirmed what our ancestors have taught us over many generations, that we have lived here since the Dreaming."

Dr Chris Tyler Smith, group leader at the Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute added: "By fully sequencing and analysing Y-chromosomal DNA, we have been able to trace ancient human migrations and inform living people about their ancestry. We are using the latest technology to genetically unearth our ancient history - something that has only become possible in the last decade. We look forward to further collaborations to understand more of this unique heritage."

Source: Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute [February 25, 2016]

Saturday, February 27, 2016

Research that shows impact on three generations – vindication of 3 generation link in Pithru Tarpan.

A recent study conducted on rats showed that upcoming three generations could pick up alcoholism if the pregnant rat consumes alcohol during the period that is equivalent to the 2nd trimester in human beings. This information is interesting and important as well because of 2 reasons:- (1) the food that is consumed during pregnancy does create an imprint in the off springs and (2) that imprint goes upto 3 generations with certainty.  This study reminded me of the ideas I wrote in the Tarpanam series in 2008. This study vindicates the basis of tarpanam that one bequeaths one’s physical, vital and mental faculties from the 3 generations of ancestors.

The study involved feeding the pregnant rats with one glass of wine for four days in a row during the pregnancy period that is comparable to the 2nd trimester in human beings. For a rat, drinking a glass of wine is certainly heavy. Drinking it for 4 days continuously has created an imprint in the drinking urge of the offspring and also has made them more insensitive to alcohol. This imprint had been transferred to subsequent generations with a minimum of 3 generations of off springs showing these tendencies in a marked way. These findings vindicate the view of Sanatana Dharma that a person inherits his body and tendencies from not only his parents, but also from grandparents and great grandparents. It is to pay back this ‘debt’ that the tarpan ceremony or pithru ceremonies are devised.

For research purpose (to get a marked result), heavy dose of alcohol was administered to the rats. But the findings indicate that whatever is consumed by the pregnant rat could create an impression or could pass on an impression in the gene map of the offering that is carried on to future generations. In this context, we must recall that studies have shown that even habits like smoking was found to be present in the genes (habitual smokers had a similar gene map which is not present in non- smokers). How that could have happened might perhaps find an explanation from the present research on rats.

What interests me most is the trimester and the nature of item consumed – namely a fluid. As per Hindu Thought anything has 3 levels of constitution. The easy code word to remember them is Bhu, Bhuva and Svah. They refer to physical, vital and mental aspects of anything. Simple example is the earth. The land part is physical or Bhu. The waters are Bhuva, the vital organs of the earth. The atmosphere is Svah, the mental part of the earth. 

Like this, every being has these three aspects. Every being inherits these three aspects from 3 generations of ancestors. The physical is inherited from parents, the vital (liquids, blood, hormones etc) is inherited form grandparents and the mental faculties are inherited from great grandparents. These are governed by 3 deities namely Vasu, Rudra and Adhitya. These three are the Pithru Gods representing first, 2nd and 3rd generations of parents.

A person does tarpan to all these three levels of parents on the pretext that he has bequeathed his faculties of all the three nature from these 3 generations. The recent study on rats showing the inheritance of a single impact in the pregnant rat to 3 generations is proof enough for every other impression or faculty to be transferred to minimum 3 generations.

This study vindicates the Vasu- Rudra- Adhitya theory (Read my articles this and this to know about these three pithru devas) expounded in Chandogya Upanishad. The three can be identified in any area of development. At the cosmic level, Agni, water and earth were the three factors that were formed in that order. As per Sanatana Thought, they are represented or governed by Vasu, Rudra and Adhitya. Anything of fiery component is Vasu. Anything of watery component is Rudra and anything of earthy component is Adhitya.

This concept can be explained in the gestation period also. The first trimester is Vasu (agni tattwa). The 2nd trimester is Rudra (water tattwa). The 3rd trimester is Adhitya (earthy tattwa). In terms of constitution of the body, the basics of physical development must happen in the first trimester, the vital fluids in the 2nd trimester and the mental faculties in the 3rd trimester.

At the level of Dhatus, the pittha elements (bilious) get manifest in the 1st trimester, the kapha elements (Phlegmatic) in the 2nd trimester and vaatha elements (windy) in the 3rd trimester.  don’t know how far this is true scientifically and how much we have tested and known for sure. But the intake of foods of the nature of specific dhatus in the corresponding trimester would and must create an imprint in the genetic map of the foetus which will be transmitted for 3 generations, is what is known from the present research on rats.

In this research, a watery substance was tested in the 2nd trimester – both (substance and period) representing the Rudra tattwa. As per our concept, the watery component must make an impact or must merge well with the Rudra tattwa in the 2nd trimester. I wonder whether they would have got the same result if they had tested this in the first or last trimester. It could also be possible that they tested in those periods but found the result only in the 2nd trimester. The watery or fluid substances in the 2nd trimester seem to make an impact with reference to the same substance in the 3 future generations.

Though the prospect of what the pregnant mother eats or thinks influence her offspring is something known to scientific community, its reach to a minimum of 3 generations is established by this study. Of all that happens within that pregnant mother, the compartmentalisation of the three basics as represented by Bhu, Bhuva and Svah in their respective time periods is something that is seen as the tip of the iceberg in this study.


Alcohol during pregnancy may affect many generations

inking alcohol during pregnancy may affect not only your child but also increases the chances in next three generations of developing alcoholism, warns a study conducted on rats.

"Our findings show that in rats, when a mother consumes the equivalent of one glass of wine four times during the pregnancy, her offspring and grand-offspring -- up to the third generation -- show increased alcohol preference and less sensitivity to alcohol," said Nicole Cameron from Binghamton University in the US.

For the study, pregnant rats were given the equivalent of one glass of wine -- four days in a row -- at gestational days 17-20, the equivalent of the second trimester in humans.

Juvenile male and female offspring were then tested for water or alcohol consumption and adolescent males were tested for sensitivity to alcohol by injecting them with a high-alcohol dose, which made them unresponsive and measuring the time it took them to recover their senses.
The results, published in the journal Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research, suggest that if a mother drinks during pregnancy, even just a little bit, she increases the risk that her progeny will become alcoholic.

The team claims to be the first to investigate the effects of alcohol consumption during pregnancy and alcohol-related behaviour on generations that were not directly exposed to alcohol in the uterus during the pregnancy.

Monday, February 15, 2016

There will be rains on Gokulashtami on 25th August 2016!

Today Chennaiites are experiencing a mixed weather of hot day with a cloudy sky, with dark clouds often hiding the Sun and a cool breeze blowing from east and north east. The 195th day from today is the day of Gokulashtami, the day of Krishna’s birth. That day is supposed to have incessant rainfall as happened at the time of Krishna’s birth. The good Garbottam features of today shows that Chennai and its suburbs will receive good rainfall on the night of 25th August.

Another important feature of the days we are crossing now is that the corresponding days in August (AvaNi) must have just thunder bolts. This is known as “AvaNi Muzhakkam”. On the day of AvaNi muzhakkam, huge rolling sound of thunderbolts must be heard. It may not be accompanied with rainfall. But the occurrence of the high decibel thunderbolt is one of the signs of good monsoon rains later.

There are 2 schools of thought regarding the day of AvaNi muzhakkam. One is that it is the 6th day of AvaNi.  Another is that it must occur after the 6th day of AvaNi and not before. The observation date for 6th day of Avani is 12th February 2016. It was dry indicating no rainfall or even cloud movement on the 6th day of AvaNi (22nd August 2016). 

12-02-2016. Hot sun. Though clouds were there they seemed to be evaporating.

But on 13 the February there was good Garbottam of clouds and winds. The corresponding 195th day is 23rd August 2016. That day is likely to have showers raising the scope for thunderbolts on that day.

13-02-2016 - 9-30 AM. Sun behind the clouds.

13-02-2016. 10 AM. Whitish solar disc seen through the clouds.

13-02-2016. clouds in aquatic shapes (here turtle).
On 14th February (yesterday) a peculiar line-up of small bundles of clouds (பொதிப் பொதியாக) often tinted with grey shades was noticed. These bundles were going on a procession in the eastern sky after 2 PM. It looked so beautiful to see this procession. 

14-02-2016. Bundles of clouds in procession- 2 PM. Looks like shoals of fish. 

14-02-2016- Another view of Shoals of cloud bundles.
Though there were clouds close to the sun they never crossed the sun even once. 
14-02-2016. 2 PM.
I am curious to see how this gets manifest on 24th August 2016. Will this create just thunderbolts?

Today right from morning 8 AM onwards there are surging clouds everywhere. Beautiful blue sky could be seen in between. It was ecstatic watching them move in huge bird like shapes and hiding the sun often. While checking the corresponding date on the 195th day, it was found to be Gokulashtami day!

15-02-2016 - 10-15 AM.Sun hidden. 

15-02-2016. Very huge bird like clouds. Beautiful bluish sky at the background.

15-02-2016 - Sun at Noon.

15-02-2016. Noon. Surging layers of dark clouds in the southern sky.
It may be raining at some other place at this moment. But if it is very mild, those places will receive abundant rainfall on 25th August. If it is heavy, there wont be any rainfall on 25th August. In Chennai at my place of observation there is no rain and not even a drizzle. The clouds and breeze at the moment are enough to cause good rainfall on the night of 25th August. 
However there are 2 dampeners at the impact time (August 24- 26th 2016). Venus will be in Uttra Phalguni (Nirjala nadi) and Saturn in Anusha (Vayu nadi). These two conditions indicate clouds, but no rains. A redeeming feature is that Mercury is in the lead in front of Jupiter and Venus at that time showing windy conditions or rains accompanied with wind circulation. The close conjunction of Mercury, Jupiter and Venus within 4 degrees at that time must override the dryness indicated by the star dispositors of Venus and Saturn. Let’s wait and see.

Another feature is that today is Kritthika star and it is going to last till early morning tomorrow. After that Rohini comes. Good cloud cover on Rohini will ensure very good rainfall on the 195th day (26th August 2016). So far in my observation for this season, this is the 2nd time Kritthika with good cloud cover is noticed, followed by good Garbottam on Rohini, the next day (19th and 20th January 2016)