Showing posts with label Meteorology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Meteorology. Show all posts

Sunday, February 7, 2021

Glacier burst at Chamoli, Uttarakhand

 

A tragedy by deluge struck the higher Himalayan regions seven years after a similar tragedy by a cloudburst around the same region in Uttarakhand. Having studied the floods at Kedarnath, Mantralaya, Kerala, the meteorological causes and the astrological causes I am posting here the astrological combinations that existed at the time of the breaking up of the Himalayan glacier near Chamoli.

At the moment of writing this not much information was available except one from a tweet that tragedy struck at Raini village around 10-45 am (7th Feb 2021)

Though we have been expecting some kind of escalation on 10th and 11th February due to the conjunction of five planets in Capricorn, a different combination occurred  today (7th Feb) related to water. Moon crossed Ketu in the watery sign of Scorpio. In the rainy season, this crossing over is accompanied with a sudden spurt in rainfall or a landfall - both ensuring destruction. We see a similar tragedy by water in the non-rainy season.

The sign of cancer – a watery sign is receiving the direct aspect from the 5 planets transiting Capricorn, the 4th aspect of Mars and the 11th aspect of Rahu (Rahu and Ketu aspect the 3rd sign on both sides of their location. Though there are other aspects, these two aspects are found to be effective in many case studies) Ketu is aspecting the 5 planet combination in Capricorn. 

Moon, the lord of Cancer was in another watery sign, namely Scorpio crossing Ketu at 3-45 am  this morning (7th February). So that is the most likely time of the initial break of the glacier which cascaded as time went by. By 5-30 am the moon crossed Ketu completely. 


By 10-45 am the moon shifted to a watery Navamsa, namely Pisces, ensuring floods.

Now looking at the afflicted sign, i.e. Cancer, it is fortunately empty. If any planet is posited there receiving the aspects from almost all the planets, then the people signified by that planet would have borne the brunt. The sign being empty but the signifier being water, water related facilities and structures would be affected. The casualties are likely to be limited, with the moon moving out of Scorpio by 4-15 pm this evening.

Coming to the identification of the location impacted, the sign cancer stands or Northern direction. In the Kurma Chakra division of the places given in Brihat Samhita, the regions in East in North India that include Mithila, Kasi and Kosala come under the sign cancer. These regions, connected with the Himalayan Rivers are likely to see a rise in water level. The overall scenario is likely to be under control with limited casualties.

Let’s hope the next date of concern – 10th and 11th February - passes off without much hardships to the people. The likely areas to be affected are NW India and South India at that time. 


Friday, July 26, 2019

Surprise events that followed Lunar eclipse of July 2019


The lunar eclipse on the night of 16th July 2019 that arrived in the midst of unusually less hype was followed by quick pace of successive events that make me write them here for record and future reference.

The partial eclipse occurred in the 2nd half of the night of July 16th a few hours before the sun entered Cancer ushering in Dakshinayana.

On 17th night the Brindavan of Sri Vyasaraja Tirtha was vandalised causing immense sorrow to devout Hindus.

On 18th, four people died in a stampede in the process of worshiping the deity, Atthi Varadar in Kanchipuram.

This was soon followed by heavy rains in many parts of India leading to floods and displacement of people. The UN Office for the coordination of Humanitarian Affairs declared,

As a result of torrential monsoon rains mid July, over 25 million people have been affected by flooding in Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Myanmar. At least 600 people are known to have died and over half a million people have been displaced with homes, schools and hospitals damaged or destroyed. There is the possibility that the situation could deteriorate further as rains continue in many of the flood-affected areas.”

Source:

This map and the events following the eclipse offer scope to analyse the effect of the eclipse. To understand this we must first note down the effects of the eclipse, derived from Varahamihira’s Brihat Samhita.

·       The month: Lunar Ashadha:
Prediction by Varahamihira: “Wells, wet fields and rivers will become dry; dealers in roots and fruits, the people of Gandhara, of Kashmir, Of Pulinda and of China will perish; there will be abundance of rains.” (Ch 5-77)
Inference: Contradictory views are given. On one side wells and rivers would become dry and on the other there will be abundance of rains. The prediction implies run-off water and back to lack of usable water soon.

·       The Sign: Gemini.
Prediction by Varahamihira: “Chaste women, princes, powerful petty chiefs, learned men, people living on the banks of Jamna and rulers of Balhika and Matysa with their subjects will suffer miseries.” (Ch 5-37)
Inference: The current spate of rainfall seems to be relevant to flood conditions in river Jamna and Ganga. Balhika could refer to Iran, North West Pakistan.

·       Part of the night eclipsed: The night (or day, in the case of solar eclipse) is divided into 7 equal parts. That part of the night when the eclipse happens is noted for prediction. This time it happened in 5th and 6th part.
Prediction by Varahamihira: “In the fifth section, herbivorous animals, ministers and household inmates will suffer as also the Vaishyas. If they should be eclipsed when in the sixth section of the firmament, women and shudras will suffer.” (Ch 5- 30, 31)
Inference: Domestic animals, ministers  (fall of Kumaraswamy Government in Karnataka), business people, working class and women are expected to suffer.  

·       Direction of commencement of eclipse: Started from northern part of the lunar disc.
Prediction by Varahamihira: “If the eclipse should commence at the northern, southern or western point of the disc, the Brahmins, the Kshatriyas, the Vaishyas or the Shudras will suffer respectively. (Ch 5-32)
Inference: The commencement t north affects Brahmins. This includes acharyas and temples. The vandalism at the Brindavan of Sri Vyasaraja Teertha and death of people in the temple in stampede had happened within 3 days of the eclipse.

Picture credit: @bharanivt

·       Shape of the eclipse: There are 10 types of eclipse depending on the shape of the eclipsed part. This time three fourth of the disc was eclipsed at maximum.
Prediction by Varahamihira: “If a third, or a fourth, or one half of the disc should be eclipsed, it is technically known as Grasana (seizing with the mouth). Grasa- Partial eclipse: the wealth of prosperous princes will suffer diminution and prosperous countries will be afflicted with calamities.” (Ch 5- 46)
Inference: The first part of the prediction foretells loss of wealth of the rich perhaps by way of ED attachment of properties or debt trap. The second part on calamities is what we are seeing in north and north east India by floods.

·       Overall assessment:

1.     Suffering to all sections of society except Kshatriyas (army) is indicated and we are witness to this now.
2.     The vandalism at Bridavanam and death at Kanchi temple refer to suffering to Brahmins;
3.     Business losses and hardship to working class is also evident on account of the floods.
4.      Herbivorous animals refers to domesticated animals that are likely to be affected by floods.
5.     Affliction to ministers was seen in the fall of Kumaraswamy ministry in Karnataka.

The amazing part of this assessment is the extent of eclipse witnessed in different places.
Both Brindavanam and Kanchipuram that faced affliction immediately after the eclipse are in close latitudes. (Anegundi, the location of the Brindavanam is at 76.49˚ E; Kanchi at 79.70˚ E) They were exposed to maximum duration of eclipse. Refer P1 in red box in the map below.


In the P1 region suffering to Brahmins (temples and devotees – any devotee is a Brahmin who contemplates on Brahman) and ministers (fall of government in Karnataka)

In P2 region, suffering to business people, ordinary people and animals. (1st map in the beginning)

May be for the first time in recent years, the eclipse related predictions had matched on a higher degree. One reason I propose is the planetary condition at the time of eclipse. Saturn in close conjunction with Ketu and in direct opposition to Rahu is one factor that causes widespread misery to common man. The star dispositor of Saturn is lorded by Venus which also joined this combination close to the eclipsed degree. Venus in the star of Jupiter brings in the picture both Venus and Jupiter related people, namely women and temple related issues.

In the past eclipses were dreaded due to the kind of suffering that was related to eclipses. But in this age of all round suffering, all round the year, nothing shocks us. However the extraordinary events listed in the beginning of this article make us wonder whether eclipses are portentous of some events on earth.

·       Who can forget the Mantralaya floods that ravaged Sri Raghavendra Swami’s abode soon after a solar eclipse on 22nd July 2009, with similar predictive indicators of danger to Acharya or temple related places?

·       And who can deny that it requires an eclipse to eclipse the un-democratically installed government of Kumaraswamy?

With more records in place, let us hope to understand better the work of Kala Purusha through his tools in the sky.

Until then and always let our prayers be “Sarve Jana Sukhino Bhavantu   

Thursday, December 28, 2017

Solar (Margazhi) Garbottam is the basis for general prediction of monsoon next year.

After 2 years of round-the-year observation of astro-meteorology, I have zeroed in on certain features as most reliable ones. They are three in number.

(1) Solar or Margazhi Garbottam that lasts for nearly13 days. This is the time Sun is moving across Purvashada (Pooradam). Each day of this period corresponds to roughly 13 days of Sun’s transit in a star starting from Arudra which happens in June, that is., Vaikasi.

(2) Daily Garbottam which is to be watched every day from December to July. Every day of this period corresponds to 195th day later. Presence of Garbottam on a day is indicative of rainfall after 195 days.

(3) Planetary combinations that support or spoil rainfall at the time of rainfall.

All the three are supposed to work in tandem and must work in tandem to ensure good rainfall. In 2016 they were so and we found only less deviation. Whether rainfall is good or bad, these three must indicate the same thing.

The situation is a little different in 2017 as we find non-concurrence within these three. When non-concurrence is there, which one takes the lead is found out in this year’s situation.

This year (2017) there were 2 major planetary combinations - one occurred in SWM and another (others) in NEM season. The former one was a singular event of Venus in eastern sky in the morning transiting stars Magha to Chitra between Sep 15th and Nov 8th. This corresponded to Solar Garbottam which was posted on 12th Dec, 2017 The relevant part of the table from that post is reproduced below. It rained during this period till Venus completed this transit on 8th November.

Day
Date of Garbottam
Observation
Date of Impact
(Fortnight)
Prediction
7
3rd - 4th Jan, 2017
Wind- Occasional
Drizzles- Nil
Lightening- Nil
Thunder-Nil
Clouds-Good
13th September to 26thSeptember 2017.
Good rains in the 2nd quarter of the fortnight.

Between 18thand 21st Sep 2017.
8
4th – 5th Jan, 2017
Wind- Occasional
Drizzles- Nil
Lightening- Nil
Thunder-Nil
Clouds- Moderate to Good.
27th September to 10th October 2017.
Moderate rainfall in the 2nd quarter of the fortnight.
Between 29th Sep and 2ndOctober 2017
9
5th - 6th Jan, 2017
Wind- Good
Drizzles- Nil
Lightening- Nil
Thunder-Nil
Clouds- Good
11th October to 23rd October 2017.
Good rainfall in the middle of the fortnight.
Between 14thand 18thOctober 2017.
10
6th - 7th Jan, 2017
Wind- Good.
Drizzles- Nil
Lightening- Nil
Thunder-Nil
Clouds- Good.
24th October to 6th November 2017.
Rainfall in the 1st week of November.
11
7th - 8th Jan, 2017
Wind- Nil
Drizzles- Nil
Lightening- Nil
Thunder-Nil
Clouds- Nil
7th November to 19thNovember 2017.
Dry weather.
12
8th - 9th Jan, 2017
Wind- Nil
Drizzles- Nil
Lightening- Nil
Thunder-Nil
Clouds- Nil.
19th November to 2ndDecember 2017.
Dry conditions.
13
9th - 10th Jan, 2017
Wind- Occasional
Drizzles- Nil
Lightening- Nil
Thunder-Nil
Clouds- Good.
2nd December to 15thDecember 2017.
Good rains in the middle of the fortnight.
Between 6thand 10thDecember 2017.

One can notice that Solar Garbottam gave dry days from the 2nd week of November till the end of December with only a few days (6th to 10th   Dec) showing rainfall. This means the major part of NEM 2017 is dry.

Coming to the planetary combinations, the last set of planetary combinations for the year in support of rainfall started on 13th December (Venus- Mercury closeness) while another set started on 16th December. This happened almost in the fag-end of the NEM season. Both of them continued till December end with the former ending on 9th January 2018 and the latter on 14th January 2018.
The reality check shows that the planetary combinations didn’t work in the absence of Solar Garbottam.

The potency of these sets of planetary combinations cannot be doubted as we saw the dates of their occurrence tallying with the directions exactly – but not within the location of NEM. For example, the western section indicated by them pulled cyclone Ockhi to west of India, to Lakshadweep and Mumbai. The North- North east indicator which in normal circumstances should have helped northern limits of NEM regions, dragged it to NE India and Bangladesh. What was South West went beyond India and benefited Arabian Peninsula. What was east rained at Philippines!

Witnessing all these, the inference we can make is that in the absence of Solar or Margazhi Garbottam, the rainfall expected over larger regions under the aid of planetary combinations do not necessarily materialise.  

For Chennai, the local Garbottam also was for a few days in NEM and that is what had happened.
In this NEM (2017) 2/3 features did not support rainfall for Chennai. They are Solar Garbottam and local Garbottam. Even though 3 sets of planetary combinations were present from 13th December onwards, they could not bring in rainfall.

Since the same trend is found throughout Tamilnadu, I have to assume that solar and local Garbottam were negative for rest of TN also. If more people start watching Garbottam in their respective regions at least during the Solar Garbottam, it will be useful to draw better inferences.

PS.

I am planning to start a blog exclusively for astro-weather prediction. I will start posting the basics of Garbottam and how to predict rainfall through that. Initial post will be intimated in the current blogspot while no more weather posts will appear here. Interested ones are kindly asked to follow that blog (after the announcement is made here). However I will be regularly tweeting my posts of the weather blog.  





Thursday, November 2, 2017

Rainfall check - 8 (NEM - Nov-Dec 2017)

Previous articles:-

This blog is posted at a time Southern India is receiving good rains and Chennai at the verge of fear of a repeat of NEM 2015. The SWM season was good for Chennai in particular, receiving rains from Kaalamegha. The current year being Kaalamegha and the Meghadhipati being Mercury, sudden formation of dark thunderclouds happened on many days during the day-time giving some fleeting moments of sudden rains. In the NEM season, the following are the rainfall support features.

Rainfall-support features:

1. Venus in the eastern sky before dawn transiting the stars Magha, Purva phalguni, Uttra Phalguni, Hasta and Chitra between September 15th and November 8th. The following was written on Sep 1st (here)


2. Combustion of Mercury for a prolonged period between 22nd September and 31st October. The following was written on Sep 1st.


The next combustion dates are between 6th December and 18th December, 2017. This period will be wet while the start and end dates would see heavy rainfall.

3. Combustion of Venus between 6th December 2017 and 10 February 2018. Like Mercury, when Venus enters combustion, there will be heavy rains on that date and rainfall would continue during the combustion period. If the combustion period falls in winter season, there would fog or snow or dip in temperature depending on the place. There are enough indications including this feature for colder winter and snowfall in high latitudes in 2017-18.

4. Venus – Jupiter conjunction between 3rd November and 26th November. This ensures good rainfall.

5. Mars and Saturn in alternate signs (7th and 9th) from the moon there will be heavy rainfall. On 1st and 2nd December, this combination occurs.  Again from 16th December onwards, Mars, Saturn and Sun are going to be in alternate signs. This feature was found during floods in the past.

6. Sun in Vayu Nadi between 23rd October and 6th November. This causes rainfall combined with winds.

7. Mercury- Venus closeness begins on 13th December and lasts till 9th January 2018. This is a strong rainfall supportive feature.


Rainfall spoiling features:

1. Mars in Dahana Nadi between 19th November and 10th December. This would cause dry weather.

2. Saturn in front of all planets until 6th December.


Inference:

Taking the last feature first, Saturn in front of all planets would cause dry weather. Similarly Mars in front of all planets would cause dry weather. The near drought conditions since  August 2016 till July this year could be attributed to Mars moving in front of all the planets. This year Saturn was in the lead but it was not a bad spoiler of rains like Mars was. Reasons could be that Mars (fiery planet) in the front is more damaging than Saturn in the front. Second, there were rainfall support features this year but they were almost absent last year when Mars was in the forefront. So a combined effect seems to play a role in bringing rainfall.

This season (NEM) Venus in the east in the 5 stars had turned to be a first rate supporter of rainfall.  Till now I was of the opinion that Mercury- Venus closeness was a pre-condition for good rainfall. Though that works unmistakably in giving rainfall, Venus’s transit in those 5 stars proved to be a more effective feature for rainfall even in the absence of Venus- Mercury closeness.

This feature is anyway needed to be watched in upcoming years, as a reversal of the direction (in west) in the same stars would cause drought!

November 2017

In November Venus Jupiter combination is a major contributor for rainfall (between 3rd and 26th November), but Mars is likely to play spoilsport almost during the same time when it transits Dahana Nadi between 19th Nov and 10th Dec.

Looking at the record of Solar / Margazhi Garbottam observed in Dec 2016 – Jan 2017, (here), dry weather is indicated after 8th November and revival from December in tune with beginning of Mercury – Venus closeness. The relevant part of the chart is shown below. The last 2 columns indicate rainfall realisation periods.



December 2017:

December looks like a clean sweep for Mercury- Venus closeness on the one hand while Saturn and Mars transit alternate signs could do a supportive role. Yet another support comes from Venus entering combustion. There is only one spoiler with Mars transiting Dahana nadi but that ends on 10th December. Thereafter, Mercury- Venus closeness begins. So December seems to be wetter than November.

Now the big question – will Chennai see a repeat of 2015?

Till 8th November there will be rains due to the transit of Venus. This  would continue due to conjunction of Venus with Jupiter till 26th November.  But if Mars plays a spoilsport in Dahana nadi (between 19th Nov and 10th Dec), there will be a respite from rainfall. Again rainfall starts from 13th December and continues. The gap of nearly 20 days (Mars in Dahana nadi) can go a long way in averting a disastrous flood for Chennai even if rainfall picks up after 13th December. So another period to test an astrological feature (Mars in Dahana nadi) in the coming days!

However with 3 strong rainfall support features happening in December with no spoilers around, I am afraid we may have to be well prepared for woeful times. (1) Mercury- Venus closeness, (2) both Mercury and Venus entering combustion and (3) importantly Saturn, Sun and Mars coming in alternating signs are all plentiful rainfall features with the last one found to be present during floods in the past.

Split-up details can be found in the table below:

1
October 31
Mercury comes out of combustion.
Spurt in rainfall in South West India / SW Tamilnadu.
2
November 3
Venus enters next sign to join Jupiter.

Conjunction of Venus- Jupiter begins.

Spurt in rainfall in South India.
3
Till November 8
Venus in Chitra
Rainfall in South India.
4
November 13, 14
Venus crosses Jupiter.
Some meteorological event in the South (Bay).
5
November 19
Mars enters Chitra (Dahana Nadi)
Reduction in rainfall in S.India.
6
November 26
Venus enters next sign
Spurt in rainfall in S.India.
7
December 3
Mercury begins retrogression.

Saturn and Mars in alternate signs with  Moon in trinal signs to them.
Some meteorological event in South (Bay) Rainfall.
8
December 6
Mercury begins combustion.

Venus begins combustion.
Spurt in rainfall as both these planets begin combustion at the same time.

Rainfall in SW Tamilnadu, South India.

9
December 10
Mars comes out of Dahana Nadi
Dry weather ends.

10
December 13
Mercury- Venus closeness begins
Some meteorological event. North part of east coast will get rains.
11
December 15
Venus crosses Mercury in forward motion.
Spurt in rainfall in South India / TN.
12
December 16
Sun enters next sign to join with Saturn.

Saturn, Sun and Mars in alternate signs. Continues till season ends.
Heavy rainfall period in east coast, south west Tamilnadu.
13
December 18
Mercury comes out of combustion
Heavy rainfall in North and SW TN/ SW India.
14
December 28, 29, 30
Saturn, Sun and Mars in alternate signs with Moon in trinal signs.
Heavy rainfall in SW Tamilnadu.