Thursday, December 31, 2015

Day - 2 of Garbottam, year 2015-16.


The 2nd day of the Garbottam of 2015-16 (Manmatha year) started at around 5 PM of 30th December 2015 and ended at 5 PM (approximately) on 31st December 2015. 

It will have an impact on the rainfall from 5th July 2016 to 19th July 2016. 

On the basis of 195 days gap, the 2nd day of Garbottam will have a bearing on rainfall on 9th July from any place of observation. The rationale is this. This 2nd day of Garbottam happens on Panchami of the waning period of Margazhi. It will have an impact on the day of Panchami in the waxing period of Aani. That date is 9th July 2016.

Compared to day 1 of Garbottam in my place of observation, the 2nd day was a little better. On the 1st day, clouds were almost absent, but soon after the 2nd day started, long streaks of clouds could be noticed at night. I didn’t stay awake to watch the night time conditions, but farmers of olden days used to watch the night time conditions too.

But by day break on 31st December, bunches of sponge like clouds could be seen moving from the Northern direction. I could even spot swan like clouds and a crocodile like clouds with mouth wide open.

One can make out the figure from the shape of the clouds. Sometimes clouds would appear like castles. Sometimes clouds appear like birds and animals. Sometimes clouds appear like aquatic animals. During Garbottam days, clouds appearing like aquatic animals are one of the good signs for rainfall in the corresponding period later.

There is nothing unscientific or ridiculous about the shapes of clouds. The shapes of clouds indicate the kind of wind movement from different directions and their interaction. For aquatic animal shapes, say for swans, the huge body with a head and a long beak can be formed by a specific pattern of wind movement at that layer of atmosphere. For crocodile formation which is identifiable by the long open mouth and a long body, similar kind of cross wind patterns are to be there to distinguish between body and head and mouth or beak.

In the case of castle formations, such crossing wind patterns are largely absent. The wind currents chisel the outer shapes of the clouds. For animals and bird, the crossing wind patterns are different. If we watch the shapes of clouds in different seasons and figure out the shapes, we will be able to appreciate the invisible movement of winds in causing such shapes.

During Garbottam days, the clouds forming shapes of aquatic animals are ideal for the kind of the wind patterns that must be there to have an impact on good rainfall at a later date.

On the 2nd day of Garbottam (31st Dec), I was excited to see a huge swan shaped cloud moving swiftly from north to south at around 8 AM. Fish like formations were also seen but they quickly changed shapes. At around noon, I noticed swan shaped clouds with distinct beak and neck. There were stork like formations too which were half bodied. By 4 PM, I noticed many tortoise shaped clouds. Though I could not watch the sky continuously, I was checking every now and then.

Right from morning till the end of day -2, the region around the horizon all around was covered with clouds. A completely overcast sky is a good sign of pregnancy of rainfall. But the sky was not overcast, though it was so only for about 30 degrees above the horizon on all sides. At other places, bunches of clouds, some of them in aquatic animal shapes were seen moving from the North which is a good sign.

Apart from the clouds, the mild breeze in the morning and evening (sea breeze?) and red sun at sun set were the features noticed on the 2nd day of Garbottam.  

The observation of the 5 factors for day-2 are as follows:

(1) Wind:- Cool breeze was felt in the morning. Mild wind in general.
Result:- A moderate factor of 20% strength for rainfall from 5th July to 19th July in my place of observation. However the cool breeze in the morning shows scattered rain or drizzles at night in that period.

(2) Rain:- Nil.
Result:- Does not indicate rains in the said period.  I read that some parts of South Tamilnadu experienced rains today (2nd day of Garbottam). Rains are not good signs of rainfall later in the corresponding period in the rainy season. Drizzles are ideal for good pregnancy of rainfall.   

(3) Lightening:- Nil.
Result:-  Does not indicate rains in the said period.

(4) Thunder:- Nil.
Result:- Does not indicate rains in the said period.

(5) Clouds:- Long  clouds noticed at night. Day time clouds were whitish and at times tinged with halo. Aquatic shaped clouds noticed at time during the day. Sky not completely overcast.
Result:- This factor is satisfactory but not completely ideal.

3-some features:-

(1) Terrestrial :- Behaviour of birds and cows satisfactory.

(2) Atmospheric :- Of the 12 features noted in my blog onGarbottam, (1) gentle breeze was there in the morning. (2) Sun was encircled with bright halo, but could not watch the moon. (3) Aquatic shaped clouds were seen, more around noon. (4) Wind direction was from the North. (5) Mildly reddish sky at sunset. From these, I deduce the atmospheric features were little above average.

(3) Planetary:- (1) Planets and stars appeared as whitish and faint discs. (2) Sun was red at sun set. (3) Except Jupiter all the other planets were in Southern declinations. Planets in northern declinations are desirable.

Interpretation:-

Only the cloud and atmospheric condition was present at an average level. This was noticed at day time and around noon. It must be observed whether this gives moderate rainfall on 9th July in my place of observation at night time.

For the Garbottam strength, the overall scenario has 2 out of 5 features  (wind and cloud) in good condition. This must give 30% rainfall of the season expected in my place of observation for the period between 5th July and 19th July.

Now coming to the planetary position at that time in July 2016, they are pretty good.

Those features (ativrishti yoga) are listed below:

(1) On 7th July, the closeness of Mercury and Venus (Budha- Shukra saameepyam) starts.

(2) Until then Sun, Mercury and Venus are together in Gemini with Venus in front of the other two. Mercury crosses Sun by the 7th of July. Usually under this circumstance it will rain in the rainy season.

(3) Both Mercury and Venus were combust until then.

(4) Venus re-emerges from combustion by 7th July, but it re-emerges in Punarpoosam which reduces the rainfall.

(5) Both Mercury and Venus are in the West.

(6) On 9th July which is the 195th corresponding day for today (2nd day for Garbottam), Venus – Mercury closeness continues with Venus in the front and in watery sign and both of them in the same Navamsa. This is a good sign of rainfall.

(7) On the night of  9th July, Moon enters Uttram (Uttra Phalguni), the watery star which adds strength to the Venus – Mercury position.

Therefore, by the principle of 195th day rainfall, there is a likelihood of rains at night time on 9th July in my place of observation though it would not be heavy.

However, the planetary positions being good at that time (5th July to 19th July), the SW monsoon would have advanced by then to its usual locations in India.


Related articles:







Day -1 of Garbottam and Arudra Pravesham.

First day of Garbottam ended around 5 PM  on 30th December 2015.

I thought of writing down the observation of Garbottam days and check with corresponding days of future along with other astrological factors to arrive at a better understanding of prediction of rainfall.
The following was my observation done at a place in the suburb of Chennai. The impact is valid from 21st June to 5th July 2016.

The 5 factors

(1) Wind:- Still air at the time of beginning of Garbottam at 5 PM on 29th Dec, 2015. Cool breeze was felt in the morning. Not very windy in general.
Result:- Not a strong factor for rainfall from 21st June to 5th July in this place of observation. However the cool breeze in the morning shows scattered rain or drizzles at night in that period.

(2) Rain:- Nil.
Result:- Does not indicate rains in the said period.

(3) Lightening:- Nil.
Result:-  Does not indicate rains in the said period.

(4) Thunder:- Nil.
Result:- Does not indicate rains in the said period.

(5) Clouds:- Cloudless at the beginning of Garbottam. Small groups of scattered clouds till midnight. No cloud formation during the day time too.
Result:- Does not indicate rains in the said period.

Interpretation:-
If all the 5 factors are present, heavy rainfall would occur in the said period. But only one feature was present in lesser magnitude. This works out to less than one third of the rainfall if we reduce the optimum rainfall by a quarter for the absence of each factor. We have to see whether this works out to 30% or less of the usual rainfall for this period.

3-some features:-

(1) Terrestrial :- Good.

(2) Atmospheric :- Of the 12 features noted in my blog on Garbottam, (1) gentle breeze was there in the morning. (2) Sun encircled with bright halo, but no halo around Moon.

(3) Planetary:- (1) Planets and stars appeared as clear, bright discs. Arudra (Betelgeuse) was blood red which was its original colour. (2) Sun was red at sun set. (3) Except Jupiter all the other planets were in Southern declinations.

Interpretation:-
Except red Sun and clear stars, other features were absent. Planets in southern declination are not good indicators for rainfall. Less than average rainfall for the said period in the place of observation is indicated.

Day 1 of Garbottam indicates Arudra Pravesham. Therefore it is imperative to check the nature of Arudra Pravesham.

Arudra Pravesham is the entry of the Sun in Arudra star in the next season (2016). This entry is an important indicator for general rainfall nature of the season. The day of the entry, the thithi, yoga and karana at that time, the lagna of the entry time, the kala (day or night) and the location of the moon at that time are noted to judge the nature of the rainfall season that comes after the entry. The details of how to see them are given in my blog on solar ingress.

The prediction based on Arudra Pravesham is important as it was noted in my blogs earlier. In one of my earlier blogs, I commented about the nature of Arudra Pravesham of Jaya varushm for the Monsoon season of 2014. It is reproduced below.
  



The Arudra Pravesha on 22nd June 2014, 10-35 AM happened in the fiery Leo lagna with Moon in fiery sign. The yoga was unfavourable Atiganda. The time of the day also was unfavourable as it was day time. Though other factors were favourable, the important ones namely lagna, moon sign and kaala were unfavourable and were associated with heat. Though the year Megha was Vaayu and Raja and Mantri (of the Nava nayaks of Solar ingress in Mesha) were favourable, the Arudra Pravesha lagna and other features being unfavourable, there was a kind of tug of war between the Mesha ingress features and Arudra ingress features. Based on other features, I went with indicators of Arudra ingress and expected lack of rains.

That year (2014) indeed experienced less rainfall. The IMD report confirmed this. The abstract of it is reproduced below.



The report refers to ‘border line El Nino’ for this deficient rainfall. The El Nino has an explanation in astrology is what I wish to state.

The deficit of 2014 season can be explained by other astrological factors too, which I would do later. (In fact I am working on all the reports of IMD in its website, to arrive at a better understanding from astrological view point.)

For the upcoming season, the Arudra Pravesham is discussed below.

 The upcoming year’s Arudra Pravesham is not all that good and not very bad. Sun enters Arudra on 21st June 2016 at 11 PM in the night.  

The day is Tuesday (not good)
The thithi is Krishna Dwitheeya (good)
The nakshatra is Purvashada (very good)
The Yoga is Brahma yoga (not good)
The Karana is Taitula karana (good)
The lagna is  Kumba lagna (not good)
The Kala is and night time nearing mid night (good).
At that time Moon will be in Sagittarius (not good) but in the watery star Pooradam (Purvashada) (Very good).

Moon’s position, the star Purvashada and kaala (night time) are powerful enough to cause good rains, though the Meghadhipathi  (among Nava nayakas) is Mars and the day of entry is Mars. This ensures above normal rainfall for the whole season of 2016 upto December.

Though, the Arudra Pravesham period may not experience good rains in my place of observation, it would rain on the path of the SW monsoon by more than average.

In this context, the Megha is Neela Megha which gives mixed rainfall – with more rains in one place and deficient rains in another. Garbottam observation would indicate this trend in different places.
Another important feature we must note is the position of planets at the time of Arudra Pravesham and the rainy season in general. The study of IMD reports gives a number of clues on what to look for and how the rainfall yogas (Anavrishti and Ativrishti) play a role. I will write them one by one in future blogs.

For the current topic, on the day of Arudra Pravesha in 2016, Venus is conjunct with Sun and is combust. Venus is forward to Sun and Mercury is behind the Sun. Venus and Sun will be in Arudra while Moon will be opposite to them in Pooradam. This is ideal for good rainfall.

Generally Venus in combustion causes good rainfall. The combustion starts 10 degrees before Sun and ends at 10 degrees after Venus crosses the Sun. On April 29th 2016, Venus enters into combustion while Mercury is retrograde in the front of Sun. All the three, Sun, Venus and Mercury are in the same sign which is Aries. This gives thunderstorms or pre-monsoon rains. But as the planets progress, the combustion continues into Taurus when Sun- Venus come opposite to Saturn and Mars in Scorpio. Though these two malefics in a watery sign is good for rainfall, their opposition to monsoon causing Venus and Mercury at the time of start of Monsoon is not good. So I foresee a delayed onset of SW monsoon.

Anyway the combustion of Venus continues at the time Arudra Ingress of the Sun. At that time opposition from Saturn and Mars is over. So the Arudra Pravesham on 21st June must come with good progress of the SW monsoon. 

The end of combustion of Venus is also a factor in determining the rainfall.

In this scheme, the sky is divided into 6 Mandalas of stars and the re-emergence of Venus in a Mandala determines the rainfall. (see at the end of the article)

On July 10th 2016, Venus re-emerges from combustion in the 2nd Mandala (Poosam). This gives less than average rainfall.

So the early pointers are for ups and downs in rainfall in the early part of SW monsoon season, though the extent of the rainfall is such that it is mixed, more at one place and less at another. In my place, the 1st day of Garbottam shows that it will be scanty atleast until 5th July.

Let me observe the 2nd day of Garbottam and look at other astrological features.

*******

The 6 Mandalas of the sky for the re-emergence of Venus after combustion are as follows:
1st Mandala  = Bharani, Krittikai, Rohini, Mrigashirsham (4 stars)
2nd Mandala =  Arudra, Punarvasu, Poosam, Aslesha (next 4 stars)
3rd Mandala = Magha, Purva phalguni, Uttara Phalguni, Hastham, Chittrai (next 5 stars)
4th Mandala = Swathi, Vishaka, Anusha (next 3 stars)
5th Mandala = Jyeshta, Moola, Purvashada, Uttara shada, Sravana, (next 5 stars)
6th Mandala = Dhanishta or Avittam, Shathabhishak or Sadhayam, Purva bhadrapada, Uttara Bhadrapada, Revathy, Ashwini (next 6 stars).

If Venus re-emerges after combustion in the 1st and 2nd Mandala, rains will be below average.
If it re-emerges after combustion in the 3rd and 5th Mandala, there will be little rain and famine conditions will prevail.
If it re-emerges after combustion in the 4th and 6th Mandala, there will be copious rains.