Wednesday, February 3, 2016

Garbottam chart of January 2016 – Impact on July – August 2016

Garbottam is seen in two ways. One pertains to a larger period of six and a half months of the Monsoon period starting from June to December. This is done on the dates that Sun is transiting Poorvashada star in the month of Margazhi. This year this period lasted for 13 days between the evening of 29th December 2015 and the evening of 11th January 2016. Daily observation for this period can be read here. A consolidated chart on the observation of this period will be posted separately.

The second type of observation of Garbottam pertains to daily observation starting from Margazhi to Vaikasi. The rainfall occurrence can be predicted on the 195th day from the day of observation. For the first time I have started the observation on a daily basis. I am noting them down in a diary on the corresponding impact date. This can give a better understating of the Garbottam principles. 

The observation pertains to my place of observation which is in a suburb of South Chennai. Since I started the observation from 29th December 2015, the corresponding dates start from July 2016 only. In the absence of observation in the previous period, it is not possible to predict for the dates in June 2016.

The results may go wrong or right. If it goes wrong, I consider it as lacunae in understating the principles of Garbottam told in Brihad Samhita and Prasna Marga, the two sources which are my guiding lights. Moreover it is also told in these texts (particularly Brihad samhita) that a good Garbottam may fail to give good rains on the 195th day, if the planetary positions on that day are not supportive of rainfall. In that case it would not rain on that 195th day. But it would rain in the next Garbottam supported-day, as a shower of hail or thunderstorm. (Brihad Samhita 21-33). Therefore the rainfall yoga combinations of planets on the impact dates must be checked while predicting the rainfall on the 195th day.

The Sapta Nadi Chakra of planets – star combination must be checked for rainfall on the impact day (195th day). It is given below. More planets on no-rain Nadi would reduce the impact of a good Garbottam.

1
Vayu Nadi
Kri, Vishaka,  Anusha, Bharani

Saturn
Windy,
No rains
2
Vayu Nadi
Ro, Swati, Jyesh, Aswini

Sun
Windy, Rains
3
Dahana Nadi
Mri, Chith, Moola, Revathy
Mars

Heat,
Dry weather
4
Sowmya Nadi
Aru,  Hastha, P-shada, U-Bhadra

Mercury
Windy,
Less rains
5
Nirjala Nadi
Punar, U.Phal, U-shada, P-Bhadra
Venus
Cloudy,
But no rains
6
Jala Nadi
Pushya, P.Phal, Abhijit, Shatabhishak
Jupiter
Plentiful
rainfall
7
Amirtha Nadi
Aslesha, Magha, Sravana, Dhanishta

Moon

Excessive
rainfall



































Hail or thunderstorm or storms are indicated if Moon and Sun joins malefics such as Saturn, Mars and Rahu in the Garbottam observation day. So they must also be incorporated in the prediction model.

The conjunction of planets (Graha Yuddha) on the Garbottam observation day does not produce rainfall even if there is good Garbottam on the observation date and good planetary combination on the impact date. These must be also incorporated in the model.

Experimentally I am including the specific stars (transited by Moon on a day) on observation dates that are supposed to give abundant rainfall if there is good Garbottam on those stars.

These stars are
Purvashada (Pooradam),
Uttarashada (Uttradam),
Purva Bhadrapada (Purattadhi),
Uttarabhadrapada (Uttrattadhi) and
 Rohini.
Good Garbottam on these dates will give abundant rainfall on the corresponding 195th day.

When Moon is crossing Arudra, Aslesha (Ayilyam), Magha , Swati and Satabhishak (sadayam), the subsequent rains will go on for many days for specific Garbottam months. If good Garbottam is observed in any of these stars
In Margazhi – rainfall for 8 days starting from the corresponding 195th day.
In Thai - for 6 days
In Maasi -16 days
In Panguni – 24 days
In Chittrai– 20 days
In Vaiskasi – 3 days.

This can be checked in the observation done on day to day basis.

The day-to-day Garbottam observed in the month of January 2016 is given below. The 5 features of Garbottam are given in 3 columns (columns 2,3 & 4). Minimum 2 features namely Cloud and wind factors must be present for moderate Garbottam. They are clubbed together in column 2.

When clouds are abundant in the sky and hide the sun and bring out coolness and darkness that ensures very good rainfall. Based on that, the nature of rainfall is given in one column 6.

Drizzle is given in a separate column as it multiplies rainfall on impact day. Thunder (low, rumbling) and lightening are clubbed in one column. So far this was not observed in my place of observation. This feature will gain momentum in the months of Panguni and Chithrai.

The time period of rainfall (column 7) is included on an experimental basis as it depends on the time of Garbottam observed on the thithi of the observation date. I have noted down the start and end of the thithi for observation and impact dates in my dairy. As they are very detailed, I have given a general outlook in the chart while I will be doing a detailed observation in my diary in terms of hours.
I intend to produce monthly charts like this till Vaikasi when the Garbottam observation period ends.

Vaikasi corresponds to Karthigai rains. That marks the end of North east monsoon. For places other than east India and Tamilnadu, observation up to Panguni is enough. That marks the end of South West monsoon.

The entire chart pertains to my place of observation Chennai. However based on the intensity of Garbottam features in my place I foresee widespread impact throughout Chennai on specific dates. They are given at the last column and in the Inference section that follows that chart.  

This year I will be checking this chart for the impact on the whole of Chennai to know how far the Garbottam in my place of observation is applicable to entire Chennai.

The entire chart originally prepared was for January 2016. But due to problems in uploading that chart, I have split into two, the first one for Margazhi (Jan 1 to 14th) and the second one for Thai (Jan 15th to 31st). Click the charts to see the details. 

For Margazhi in the first half of Janaury.



For the month of Thai in the 2nd half of January.



Inference:-

1. Precipitation is indicated from 10th July to 5th August 2016. From 10th to 18th July Moon joins malefic planets. Indicative of rains from storms or rains associated with thunder.

2. Rain on July 18th is shattered by Graha Yuddha (planetary conjunction) on the observation date.

3. For the entire period of 31 days in July and August shown above (January Garbottam), the planetary combinations are conducive for rainfall.

4. In Sapta Nadi Chakra, no planet is in obstructive star. Jupiter will be  in Purva phalguni (Pooram) in Jala Nadi indicating plentiful rains. Planetary positions are helpful on impact dates.

5. January 13th had Satabhishak. Since the month is Margazhi, a good Garbottam must give rainfall for 8 days starting from the 195th day, i.e., from July 23 to July 30. The table shows that Garbottam had continued for the next 8 days to facilitate rainfall. Only July 28th is an exception.


January 13th, 3 PM at Satabhishak.

6. The next such day is Arudra in Thai month (January 22nd) . There was good Garbottam with an additional feature of a drizzle. This must give rainfall for 6 days starting from the 195th day, i.e., from August 1st to August 6th. The table shows that Garbottam on the corresponding dates were present.


January 22nd, after noon at Arudra

7. These two periods – 23rd July to 30th July and 1st August to 6th August – can give rainfall in my place of observation only if the climate is conducive for the whole of Chennai. Therefore I take this as an indication of wet days for entire Chennai on these dates.

8. Good Garbottam on Uttra Bhadrapada and Rohini (January 15th and 20th) shows that the rainfall will be heavy and widespread on 25th and 30th July 2016. A few hours before or after these dates can be added as the corresponding thithi varied.


January 15th, 4-30 PM at Uttra Bhadrapada




January 20th, 10-30 AM at Rohini.

9. The day to day observation of January Garbottam vindicates the earlier observation of 13-day Garbottam which showed the 2nd Day of Garbottam to give rainfall between 5th July and 19th July and  3rd day Garbottam to fetch rainfall between 19th July to 2nd August. 

The above charts of daily observation further confirms the results of the 2nd and 3rd day of Garbottam when Sun was transiting Purvashada in Margazhi. 

The 2nd day of Garbottam observation was 
"30% rainfall of the season expected in my place of observation for the period between 5th July and 19th July."

The 3rd day of Garbottam observation was
"The period between 19th July and 2nd August would see wet days with occasional rainfall here and there in my place of observation."

The above charts give a fine-tuned version of the 2 fortnights for these 2 days of Garbottam which must be cross checked at the time of impact dates. 

So far the daily charts coinciding with fortnightly indications by the 2nd and 3rd days of Garbottam show that they do tally and that there is substance in this type of rainfall astrology.



Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Discovery of ‘river’ in the Bay of Bengal – vindicates the route of Ganges in the channel dug by Sagaras

A decade old research by NIO in collaboration with French scientists have found out that a river flows in the Bay of Bengal along the east coast starting from the estuary of Ganges up to the tip of South India. The waters poured into the Bay of Bengal by Ganges and Brahmaputra and the east flowing rivers such as Mahanadhi, Godavari and Krishna flow together for a width of 100 km down towards the south and to a depth of 40 meters from the surface. These rivers pour nearly 1100 cubic kilometres of fresh water from the monsoon rains into the Bay. Thus by the time the monsoon season gets over, this fresh water poured into the Bay by these rivers flow along the east coast and reach the tip of the South India and even circling Srilanka. The researchers have come up with this map of the flow of this river in the Bay.



Arrows showing the origin of the 'river in sea' in the Bay of Bengal all the way to the end. Locations from where fishermen collected water samples are named along the coast.
© Gopalakrishna, V. V. et al.


This discovery is a confirmation of what I have been repeatedly writing from 2008 onwards - on the presence of a channel bordering the east coastal line of South India, dug by the sons of King Sagara, the ancestor of Rama in which the river Ganges flowed down for the first time after the Gangotri melted to form the Ganges river. My detailed article in Tamil written in 2011 can be read here.

The digging ended at Setu in Rameswaram (read here). The Sagaras went on digging around Srilanka, circled it and ended up at Setu as that place (Setu) was hard to dig and had hot springs. The Ramayana description of Minaka Mountain encountered by Hanuman shows that there was volcanism or a vent in the mantle cover underneath that place. This is a fact, as studies done by the Geological Survey of India have found out hot springs of 60 to 70 degree Celsius along the Setu bund.  (Read here). (The sea near this place in Rameswaram is called as Agni Theertham even today). The heat of the springs had killed the Sagaras. Their ashes washed by the River Ganga could give them salvation. It was for this reason Bhagiratha, the descendant of Sagara, did penance to bring Ganga from the Himalayas.

What had actually happened was that the Gangotri glacier melted due to increasing heat at the end of Ice Age, sometime around 10,000 years BP and flowed down, initially as a lean stream. It flowed in the path dug by the Sagaras, according to Ramayana description. That path entered what is now Bay of Bengal. The Sagaras had dug along the east coast of India. The Ganges had entered that path and ended at Setu. As time went by Gangotri started melting more and more and the river Ganges started getting more water. But by then the water level at the Bay also had risen up and the shore lines had advanced towards land, sinking the channel of Sagaras underneath it. The location of this channel exists close to the shoreline as the land mass of India was slightly extended towards the Bay.

One can see the shoreline extended throughout the east and south of India.

The Bathometry analysis of the Bay of Bengal done by the researchers of NIO shows 4 strands parallel to the east coast at depths of 130, 80, 60 and 30 metres in this section. They consider it to be the marks of “sea level regressional phases” during the period between late Pleistocene and Holocene.  It must be remembered that at the start of Holocene (13,500 years ago), the ocean level was 120 metres lower than now. The Bay of Bengal being higher than the Indian Ocean must have had much lower water level. That means shore line existed until the outer most strand that was at a depth of 130 meters. The width of this extended shore line is not given by the researchers. But this area is enough for someone to make a tunnel. That is, this region offers scope to believe that the Sagaras dug along this patch of land along the shores.

This patch of land now under water is our focus of attention. It is here the river carrying the waters of Ganga and Brahmaputra are flowing along with the waters of Mahanadhi, Godavari and Krishna after picking up their water enroute. This water can be noticed from to the surface up to 40 meter depth in this length. And it flows to a width of 100 km. This is perfectly fine. But the question is why they should take a coastal route. Why didn’t the waters of these huge rivers just spread out in front of the estuaries?

In fact the bathymetry analysis of the Bay by NIO (here) says that the sedimentation brought by Ganga and Brahmaputra is so thick that it is 21 km thick at the apex of the Bengal Fan (near the estuary) and goes up to 7 degree South where it is a few hundreds of metres think. This has made the bottom of the Bay look plain and featureless. This also shows that the river water had spread straight into the Bay.


The above picture shows bathymetry of Indian Ocean along with the Bay of Bengal. One can see a light blue feature in the whole of Bay showing a more or less plain bottom. The arrow mark shows the Ninety East Ridge which is buried under the sediment as it nears the Indian land mass in the north.

It is logical to expect the waters of the rivers to spread in front their mouths. But why should they take a coastal route if not for the presence of a coastal channel that is at a higher level than the rest of the Bay?



The above picture shows the coastal band and the estuaries. Though water from the rivers had flushed into the Bay they had also taken coastal route throughout.

The coastal strands noted in the NIO study at depths of 40, 60, 80 and 130 meters may have a reason other than regressional coast line. Note the route of the coastal strands mapped by the NIO and compare with the recent discovery of the route of this river.



Route of the river mapped by NIO.

The route is the same as seen in the previous map.

What remains after the discovery of the coastal flow of the river water is the confirmation of  a verse by Valmiki in Ramayana that Sagar, the lord of the sea (in the Bay of Bengal) as it appeared to Rama (at Rameswaram) flowed down with the Ganga’s waters as the chief among the other river waters until that spot. “Ganga sindhu pradhanaabhir aapagaabhi” (Valmiki Ramayana, 6-22-22).

These waters were stopped by the Setu built by Rama’s Varana sena. Rama praises the Setu as “Paramam Pavithram, Maha Paathaka nashanam”  (Valmiki Ramayana 6-123-21). It is because water from the sacred rivers of Ganga, Brahmaputra, Mahanadhi, Godavari and Krishna are available together at Setu, enabling people take a dip at all the waters at one place. 

History of Rama shows that this combo river flowed down the channel dug by Sagara. Today’s researchers have found out that there is indeed a combo river flowing along this route. Future research is needed to show that this channel was facilitated by man-made action!

Related articles:



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From


Fishermen point scientists to ‘river in sea’

K. S. Jayaraman

Fishermen plying on the eastern coast of India have helped scientists discover a fresh water ‘river' that forms in the Bay of Bengal just after monsoon season1.

Arrows showing origin of the 'river in sea' n the Bay of Bengal all the way to the end. Locations from where fishermen collected water samples are named along the coast.© Gopalakrishna, V. V. et al.

The ‘river in the sea’ forms in northern Bay of Bengal at the end of the monsoon and ‘vanishes’ gradually after a while. About 100 kilometres wide, it flows southward hugging the eastern coast of India and reaching the southern tip after two and a half months. The seasonal river in the sea was discovered by salinity measurements of sea water samples collected by fishermen along the coast. 
The Bay of Bengal receives intense rainfall during the monsoon. This, and the run-offs from the rivers -- Ganges, Brahmaputra, Mahanadi, Godavari and Krishna -- bring around 1100 cubic kilometres of freshwater into the bay between July and September.

"This very intense freshwater flux into a relatively small and semi enclosed basin results in dilution of the salt in seawater," says one of the lead researchers V. V. Gopalakrishna, a scientist at the National Institute of Oceanography (NIO), Goa. The diluting effect gets concentrated in the upper 40 metres of the bay waters, resulting in a stark contrast between surface freshwater and saltier water below, he says. 

The presence of low salinity water (called stratification in oceanography parlance) over the Bay of Bengal prevents vertical mixing of sea water. This results in the accumulation of more heat in the near-surface layers, Gopalakrishna says. The sea surface temperature remains above 28.5°C, a necessary condition to maintain deep atmospheric convection and rainfall. Similarly, strong salinity stratification close to the coast would mean more intense tropical cyclones, he says. 

Earlier studies have shown that salinity plays a crucial role in influencing climate variability and cyclone activity. However, lack of in-situ observations in the bay hampered clarity on the temporal and spatial distribution of salinity near the coast. 

To fill this gap, the NIO engaged fishermen at eight specific stations along the east coast to collect seawater samples every five days in clean bottles. The bottles, marked with the date of collection, have been routinely brought back to NIO since 2005 for salinity measurements. 

The new dataset revealed a salinity drop of more than 10 grams per kilogram of water in the northern Bay of Bengal at the end of the summer monsoon. This relatively fresh water propagates southward as a narrow (100 km wide) strip along the eastern coast of India, according to the scientists. 

"Local fishermen have been a great help in developing this coastal network," Matthieu Lengaigne of the collaborating institute, French Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, told Nature India." 
This knowledge may help us validate models used to predict cyclones evolution in the Bay of Bengal," Lengaigne says. The study demonstrates the possibility of building a scientifically usable observational network at low cost by relying on local communities, he says. 

Following the success of the Indian programme, Sri Lankan oceanographers have initiated a similar network around Trincomalee and Colombo. 

While the scientists have so far focused on salinity measurements, they contend that the coastal seawater sampling programme could also be used for regular monitoring of other oceanic parameters such as phytoplankton or bacteria.


References
1. Chaitanya, A. V. S. et al. Salinity measurements collected by fishermen reveal a ‘river in the sea’ flowing along the east coast of India. Bull. Am. Meteorol Soc. (2014) doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00243.1



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From


Fishermen discover river in Bay of Bengal

By



Continuous monitoring of salinity levels for nearly a decade confirmed the river’s presence. Photo: Special Arrangement

Movement of freshwater mass begins at the end of the summer monsoon
Fishermen have helped oceanographers discover a river in the sea that has been meandering its way along the eastern coast of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) after summer monsoon. A decade-long coastal salinity observations, carried out at eight collection points with local fishers from Paradeep downwards up to Colachel, allowed a detailed description of this uncommon oceanic feature.
The movement of the freshwater mass begins at the end of the summer monsoon and survives for nearly two-and-a half months. It also travels over 1000 km from the northern BoB to the southern most tip of India, say scientists.

A research paper on the formation of the “river in the sea flowing along the eastern coast of India” was recently published in the Bulletin of American Meteorological Society.

The presence of the river was confirmed through continuous monitoring of salinity levels for nearly a decade, said V. V. Gopala Krishna, Chief Scientist of the National Institute of Oceanography, Goa, the Principal Investigator of the project supported by the Ministry of Earth Sciences.

Sorbonne University and LOCEAN Laboratory, Paris, and the Indo-French Cell for Water Sciences, Goa, partnered in the research work.

The southwest monsoon roughly lasts from June to September. During this period, water vapour collected at the ocean surface by the powerful southwesterly winds is flushed over Indian continent and the BoB.

A large fraction of the monsoon shower reaches the ocean in the form of runoff and contributes to the freshwater flux into the BoB in equal proportion with rainfall over the ocean.

The large rivers — Ganges, Brahmaputra and the Irrawaddy, and three small others — Mahanadi, Godavari, and Krishna — together contribute approximately 1100 km of continental freshwater into the BoB between July and September.

This very intense freshwater flux into a relatively small and semi-enclosed basin results in an intense dilution of the salt contained in seawater, explained the paper.

The over 100 km-wide freshwater mass that is formed from river discharges and runoffs is transported down south by the East Indian Coastal Current, the western boundary current of the BoB. The freshwater signal generally becomes smaller and occurs later while progressing toward the southern tip of India, the paper said.

The salinity distribution in the BoB may impact cyclones and regional climate in the BoB. However, the paucity of salinity data prevented a thorough description of the coastal salinity evolution.

This lacuna was addressed by including fishermen in sea water sample collection process. Fishers collected seawater samples once in five days in knee-deep water at eight different coastal stations along the coastline. The samples were analysed at the modern lab of the institute and compared with open-ocean samples to obtain a picture of the salinity evolution, researchers said.
According to the research paper, the occurrence of this river in the sea along the eastern coast of India was probably not a generic feature that could be observed in many locations in the world.

The peculiar geography of the northern Indian Ocean that resulted in both a massive inflow of freshwater into the semi-enclosed northern BoB and the strong coastally trapped currents along the eastern coast of India were responsible for the formation of the river, the paper suggested.




Save the planet by giving up beef.

From

GIVE UP BEEF AND SAVE THE PLANET

By


There is a big debate about global warming and carbon foot prints in the Group of Twenty (also known as the G-20 or G20) and other forums and India listens to western lectures on dangers of coal and emissions etc.

So far the discussion is only on fossil fuels and items like concrete constructions but not on eating habits of people. The latter contributes much more to global warming and Ecological destruction. We often do not bring that to the top of the table since all discussion is essentially West determined.

An interesting report in Scientific American says

Most of us are aware that our cars, our coal-generated electric power and even our cement factories adversely affect the environment. Until recently, however, the foods we eat had gotten a pass in the discussion. Yet according to a 2006 report by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), our diets and, specifically, the meat in them cause more greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, nitrous oxide, and the like to spew into the atmosphere than either transportation or industry. (Greenhouse gases trap solar energy, thereby warming the earth’s surface. Because gases vary in greenhouse potency, every greenhouse gas is usually expressed as an amount of CO2 with the same global-warming potential.)

Further it is suggested that

Curbing the world’s huge and increasing appetite for meat is essential to avoid devastating climate change, according to a new report. But governments and green campaigners are doing nothing to tackle the issue due to fears of a consumer backlash, warns the analysis from the think-tank Chatham House.

The global livestock industry produces more greenhouse gas emissions than all cars, planes, trains and ships combined, but a worldwide survey by Ipsos MORI in the report finds twice as many people think transport is the bigger contributor to global warming.

More importantly it is to be noted that the study shows red meat or beef dwarfs others for environmental impact, using 28 times more land and 11 times water for pork or chicken.
Beef’s environmental impact dwarfs that of other meat including chicken and pork, new research reveals, with one expert saying that eating less red meat would be a better way for people to cut carbon emissions than giving up their cars.

The heavy impact on the environment of meat production was known but the research shows a new scale and scope of damage, particularly for beef. The popular red meat requires 28 times more land to produce than pork or chicken, 11 times more water and results in five times more climate-warming emissions. When compared to staples like potatoes, wheat, and rice, the impact of beef per calorie is even more extreme, requiring 160 times more land and producing 11 times more greenhouse gases.
“The biggest intervention people could make towards reducing their carbon footprints would not be to abandon cars, but to eat significantly less red meat,” Benton said. “Another recent study implies the single biggest intervention to free up calories that could be used to feed people would be not to use grains for beef production in the US.” However, he said the subject was always controversial: “This opens a real can of worms.”

Prof Mark Sutton, at the UK’s Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, said: “Governments should consider these messages carefully if they want to improve overall production efficiency and reduce the environmental impacts. But the message for the consumer is even stronger. Avoiding excessive meat consumption, especially beef, is good for the environment.”

Why is rearing meat so bad for the environment?

  • Livestock production accounts for 14.5 per cent of global greenhouse emissions, the same amount produced by all the cars, planes, boats and trains in the world. “A single cow can belch up to 500 litres of methane every day”, writes the BBC’s Dr Michael Mosley, a gas that is 25 times more potent than a carbon dioxide. “Multiply that by the 1.5 billion cattle we have on our planet and that’s a lot of gas.”

  • It is inefficient. It takes, on average, 3kg of grain to produce 1kg of meat and two thirds of all agricultural land is used to grow feed for livestock, whereas only eight per cent is used to grow food directly for human consumption. These are “basic laws of biophysics that we cannot evade,” says the study’s lead researcher, Bojana Bajzelj from the University of Cambridge.

  • It places pressure on dwindling freshwater supplies and destroys forest and grasslands, which are turned over for grazing. Soil erosion, soil and water pollution from fertilisers and animal waste are other ways the meat industry impacts the environment.

  • Scientists also argue that we need to stop wasting so much food, as on average, 7.2 million tonnes of food is wasted in the UK each year.
In conclusion, we should put forward arguments and turn the debate on its head by asking the West to close down steak houses and consume less red-meat/ beef rather than meekly accepting their arm twisting.