Rainfall Check – 5 (July 2017)

Previous articles:-

Rainfall 2017 – Level 1(Panchanga-based)

Rainfall 2017 – Level 2 (Planetary combinations)

Rainfall 2017 – Level 3 (Margazhi / Solar Garbottam).

Margazhi Garbottam 2016-17 in a nutshell.

Rainfall 2017 - Level 4 (Daily Garbottam)

Rainfall Check -1 (March 2017)

Rainfall check - 2 (April 2017)

Rainfall check - 3 (May 2017)

Rainfall check -4 (June 2017)

The month of July 2017 begins with 2 positive features and one negative feature, all of whom have long term and long range applications.

The foremost  positive feature or rather redeeming feature is that the forward march of the fiery planet, Mars, was put under check for the first time after nearly 10 months (since 25^th  August 2016) by a meekly Mercury just a couple of days ago, on 28^th June, 2017. For these 10 months a dry and dragging force was associated with Mars in upsetting the rainfall expectation and realisation. That is now removed, though the final easing of conditions would begin from 29^th July when Sun overtakes Mars.

The 2^nd positive feature is that Sun, Mars and Saturn are going to be in watery signs during the 2^nd half of the month when Sun enters Cancer on 16^th July. This position keeps them in alternate and odd signs to each other. This positional relationship between these 3 planets was the same as how it was during Chennai floods in Nov- Dec 2015. This time the location of rainfall is North India as Cancer and Scorpio occupied by them indicate North.

In addition to this, from 4^th July onwards Saturn and Jupiter are going to be in watery Navamsa throughout the month of July and frequently joined with other planets such as Sun, Mars and Mercury. All through that time, Venus and Rahu are going to be in fixed signs. This combo package is supposed to bring in copious rainfall in Northern parts of India as watery signs stand for Northern direction.

The only depreesing feature throughout this month is that Venus and Mercury are moving away from each other throughout this month. The distance between them ranges from 55 degrees on 1^st July to 66 degrees on 31^st July.

Whenever these two planets are nearer to each other, there will be copious and continuous rainfall. When they are conjunct, the rainfall will be heavy and mostly triggered by cyclones. But this widening gap between them is a worrisome feature. This gap keeps increasing till 27^th August.

So we can expect the rainfall for July to be pulled by two extreme features. This being the 2^nd year of my personal observation of weather on a daily basis, the continued presence of Saturn and Jupiter in watery Navamsa and the presence of Saturn, Mars, Sun and Mercury in watery signs is something I am observing for the first time  in the background of absence of Mercury- Venus closeness.

In the past, Mercury- Venus closeness was present in most of the instances of rainfall.  Now in the absence of this feature, I am not able to rule out rainfall with so many planets getting associated with watery signs. Any success of rainfall in this month must be attributed to the planets in watery signs, and particularly to Sun, Mars and Saturn in watery signs that are in odd numbers to each other. Lack of rainfall would mean that Mercury- Venus closeness is a must for good rainfall.

The following table reveals the dominance of the planets in watery signs.

	Date	Astrological features	Event	Location	Spoilers, if any
1	July 1	Mercury continues in combustion	Rainfall	West India (Gemini)	Mars in the lead. Ven- Sat opposition
2	July 1	Saturn in watery sign in Rasi and Navamsa	Rainfall	North India. (Scorpio, Pisces)	Mars in the lead. Ven- Sat opposition
3	July 4	Mercury comes out of combustion. + Mercury rises in the west. + Mer, Jup, Sat and Sun in watery Navamsa.	Spurt in Rainfall	West and North India	Same as above.
4	July 6	Mer, Sat, Moon in watery signs + Ven and Rahu in fixed signs. + Jup, Sat and Ven in watery Navamsa	Rainfall	North India (Mer in cancer & Sat in Scorpio), Parts of East India (Rahu in Leo) Parts of South India (Ven in Taurus)	Same as above
5	July 11	Mars enters cancer (watery sign). Mer, Mars & Sat in watery signs, + Moon in Amirtha Nadi (Sravana) + Mer, Mars, Sat, Jup and Moon in watery Navamsas.	Rainfall	North India in the Gangetic plain	Same as above.
6	July 13, 14, 15	Sat, Mer, Mars in watery signs. + Moon conjunct with Ketu. Then enters watery sign. + Ven, Rahu in fixed signs. + Sat, Mars, Jup in watery Navamsas	Rainfall	North and North west India. Gangetic plains.	Same as above.
7	July 16	Sun enters cancer. Sun, Mars and Saturn in watery signs and in odd signs to each other with Moon in watery sign, in 5th and 9th signs from them. + Sun, Mars, Sat and Jup in watery Navamsa	Heavy rainfall.	North and east India.	Same as above
8	July 21	Mercury enters Leo to join with Rahu. Ven, Mer, Rah in fixed signs while Sat, Mars and Sun are in watery and odd signs to each other	Rainfall	North and East India	Same as above.
9	July 23, 24, 25	Sat, Sun and Mars in watery signs and in odd signs to each other. Moon joins them. + Sat and Jup in watery Navamsas.	Rainfall	North India	Same as above.
10	July 26, 27 and 28	Sun in deep conjunction with Mars Sun, Mars and sat in alternating and watery signs. + Moon joins Rahu	Rainfall	North India	Same as above
11	July 26	Venus enters next sign, Gemini. + Comes out of opposition to Saturn	Rainfall	West, North West India	Same as above
12	July 29	Sun overtakes Mars for the first time after11months	Reduction in heat conditions in general	North India

Outlook for Chennai.

The Chennai scenario is depressing. The local Garbottam hinting at rains on 29^th and 30^th June did not materialise, though there were drizzles in some parts of Chennai on 30^th June. One reason could be the lack of support from planetary combinations.  Presently the planetary combinations at Gemini are active in giving rainfall. Gemini signifies west and is occupied by Mercury which was in combustion right from 9^th June. When Mercury entered Sowmya Nadi (Arudra star) on 21^st June, rainfall picked up in the western section of India. This combustion ends on 4^th July. Other features are given in the above table.

When a local Garbottam fails to give expected rainfall in a place due to some reason, it would anyway give rainfall that is due in the next Garbottam date but accompanied with gusty winds or hails.  This was noticed on 27^th June when parts of Chennai experienced rainfall accompanied with heavy winds. The previous day was supposed to have experienced some rainfall but that rainfall did not materialise. The very next day also was in the Garbottam radar. It rained then but accompanied with gusty winds. By 27^th June, planetary support for rainfall ended for Chennai.

The last 3 days of June (28^th, 29^th and 30^th) also were supported by local Garbottam. I have added an update on the reality check at the end of the article on June Rainfall (Read here). The next rainfall date is likely to be gusty. July 1^st happens to be such a date as it is supported by local Garbottam. The corresponding Garbottam dates were 20^th and 21^st January 2017.

One can see the rain bands at the present times (on 30^th June) in North and west India corresponding to the cloud movement on 20^th and 21^st January (satellite pictures below). The only disappointment is Chennai. A plausible explanation for this is the lack of support from planetary combinations. Only Western section is in the planetary line of rainfall. Added to this is the dragging effect by the absence of Mercury- Venus closeness.

The rainfall realisation time for these two dates comes at night / evening / sun set on 1^st July.

The next probable date is July 6^th which corresponds to 26^th January (satellite picture below). On that date it rained in many places in Chennai but not in may place. We have to wait and see if it rains on that date.

One can see the cloud cover on 26^th January in North and North West India. It coincides with current position of planets in watery signs that signify North.

Now let’s take a look at the Garbottam chart for Chennai for July.

 July is not at all promising for the parched Chennai!

Updated on 6th August 2017:-

Final Rainfall tally for July 2017
First 2 columns pertain to Garbottam observation. 
In the last column marked 7, the actual rainfall realization is marked in blue.
The red one is failure of expected rainfall. 

Important observations and learnings are:- 

# The first rain expected on July 1st came on July 3rd. Upon checking, the thithi is split at the time of garbottam. So pinpointing the date becomes messy. For example assume that there was garbottam between 8 AM and Noon on a day. During garbottam a thithi may end and another may begin. Assume that Navami ends and Dasami begins. So it must rain at the night of both Navami and Dasami. On the rainfall realization time, this would be split into two days as the night time of Dasami would come nearly 24 hours after night time of Navami. 

# Another problem in the ascertaining the thithi, particularly during Garbottam, is the variations between Panchangs on duration of a thithi. Thithi at Garbottam is very important and must be accurate to decide on the rainfall thithi. So this kind of errors can be seen. 

# Based on this when rainfall realization occurs a day after the garbottam thithi, it might be due to this error in thithi duration.

# When it occurs 2 days after the garbottam, division of a thithi at the time of garbottam can be noticed/ The failure of rainfall on 1st July and its arrival on 3rd July come under this category.

# Rainfall between 6th to 9th come under this category. The rainfall on 12th also come under this category. 

# The drizzles on 18th and 19th are associated with garbottam that was noticed a month later. 

The is due to the jumping of months - like in adhik masa.

Normally two lunar phases come one after the other in a solar month (the counting of dates for rainfall is done on the basis of solar months)

At times, one lunar phase comes almost exactly in the middle of the solar month and the other comes in two halves in the beginning and end of the month.

For example assume that 2nd half of waxing phase comes in the first week of a solar month. This is followed by a full waning phase. This is followed by the 1st half of the next waxing phase in the last week of the solar month. The dates based on thithis of the lunar phase gets jumbled in Gregorian calendar . 

This happened in July rainfall period. Take a look at July 19th. 

The corresponding Garbottam was on Feb 8th which was a dry day. So I didn't expect any rainfall on 19th July. But it drizzled in my location and reasonably well in some parts of Chennai on 18th and 19th July. 

While preparing August chart, I noticed., the date March 8th tallies with previous phase, that is in the previous part of the month. This shows that we have to check the next month's garbottam dates also for the previous month's rainfall.

July 19th got rains on that basis. The thithi conjunction resulted in the rainfall splitting into 2 days. 

The next date of rainfall was July 29th.

Rainfall of July 29th in my place has no garbottam to back up.
But it was an important date as Sun crossed Mars on that date.
Mars was in the forefront for nearly a year.
When Sun was nearing Mars there was a sudden spurt in temperature. 
But at the time of Sun taking over Mars it rained. 

But on that day, the "Kaappu-kattal" ceremony in a Mariamman temple in my locality was performed to initiate a Utsav for Amman. The local belief is that it will rain on the day of Kappu-kattal. Homas, chantings and unknown causes are also responsible for unexpected rains (July 29th rain was unexpected as there was no support by garbottam, but Moon - Jupiter conjunction was there at the time of rainfall).

The general belief in our country is that "nallaar oruvar uLarEl, avar poruttu, ellaarkkum peyyum mazhai" 

Auvaiyar has said:-

நல்லார் ஒருவர் உளரேல் அவர் பொருட்டு
எல்லார்க்கும் பெய்யும் மழை

Perhaps this also must be borne in mind........