Rainfall check - 8 (NEM - Nov-Dec 2017)

Previous articles:-

Rainfall 2017 – Level 1(Panchanga-based)

Rainfall 2017 – Level 2 (Planetary combinations)

Rainfall 2017 – Level 3 (Margazhi / Solar Garbottam).

Margazhi Garbottam 2016-17 in a nutshell.

Rainfall 2017 - Level 4 (Daily Garbottam)

Rainfall Check -1 (March 2017)

Rainfall check - 2 (April 2017)

Rainfall check - 3 (May 2017)

Rainfall check -4 (June 2017)

Rainfall check - 5 (July 2017)

Rainfall check - 6 (August 2017)

Rainfall check -7 (September 2017)

This blog is posted at a time Southern India is receiving good rains and Chennai at the verge of fear of a repeat of NEM 2015. The SWM season was good for Chennai in particular, receiving rains from Kaalamegha. The current year being Kaalamegha and the Meghadhipati being Mercury, sudden formation of dark thunderclouds happened on many days during the day-time giving some fleeting moments of sudden rains. In the NEM season, the following are the rainfall support features.

Rainfall-support features:

1. Venus in the eastern sky before dawn transiting the stars Magha, Purva phalguni, Uttra Phalguni, Hasta and Chitra between September 15^th and November 8^th. The following was written on Sep 1^st (here)

2. Combustion of Mercury for a prolonged period between 22^nd September and 31^st October. The following was written on Sep 1^st.

The next combustion dates are between 6^th December and 18^th December, 2017. This period will be wet while the start and end dates would see heavy rainfall.

3. Combustion of Venus between 6^th December 2017 and 10 February 2018. Like Mercury, when Venus enters combustion, there will be heavy rains on that date and rainfall would continue during the combustion period. If the combustion period falls in winter season, there would fog or snow or dip in temperature depending on the place. There are enough indications including this feature for colder winter and snowfall in high latitudes in 2017-18.

4. Venus – Jupiter conjunction between 3^rd November and 26^th November. This ensures good rainfall.

5. Mars and Saturn in alternate signs (7^th and 9^th) from the moon there will be heavy rainfall. On 1^st and 2^nd December, this combination occurs.  Again from 16^th December onwards, Mars, Saturn and Sun are going to be in alternate signs. This feature was found during floods in the past.

6. Sun in Vayu Nadi between 23^rd October and 6^th November. This causes rainfall combined with winds.

7. Mercury- Venus closeness begins on 13^th December and lasts till 9^th January 2018. This is a strong rainfall supportive feature.

Rainfall spoiling features:

1. Mars in Dahana Nadi between 19^th November and 10^th December. This would cause dry weather.

2. Saturn in front of all planets until 6^th December.

Inference:

Taking the last feature first, Saturn in front of all planets would cause dry weather. Similarly Mars in front of all planets would cause dry weather. The near drought conditions since  August 2016 till July this year could be attributed to Mars moving in front of all the planets. This year Saturn was in the lead but it was not a bad spoiler of rains like Mars was. Reasons could be that Mars (fiery planet) in the front is more damaging than Saturn in the front. Second, there were rainfall support features this year but they were almost absent last year when Mars was in the forefront. So a combined effect seems to play a role in bringing rainfall.

This season (NEM) Venus in the east in the 5 stars had turned to be a first rate supporter of rainfall.  Till now I was of the opinion that Mercury- Venus closeness was a pre-condition for good rainfall. Though that works unmistakably in giving rainfall, Venus’s transit in those 5 stars proved to be a more effective feature for rainfall even in the absence of Venus- Mercury closeness.

This feature is anyway needed to be watched in upcoming years, as a reversal of the direction (in west) in the same stars would cause drought!

November 2017

In November Venus Jupiter combination is a major contributor for rainfall (between 3^rd and 26^th November), but Mars is likely to play spoilsport almost during the same time when it transits Dahana Nadi between 19^th Nov and 10^th Dec.

Looking at the record of Solar / Margazhi Garbottam observed in Dec 2016 – Jan 2017, (here), dry weather is indicated after 8^th November and revival from December in tune with beginning of Mercury – Venus closeness. The relevant part of the chart is shown below. The last 2 columns indicate rainfall realisation periods.

December 2017:

December looks like a clean sweep for Mercury- Venus closeness on the one hand while Saturn and Mars transit alternate signs could do a supportive role. Yet another support comes from Venus entering combustion. There is only one spoiler with Mars transiting Dahana nadi but that ends on 10^th December. Thereafter, Mercury- Venus closeness begins. So December seems to be wetter than November.

Now the big question – will Chennai see a repeat of 2015?

Till 8^th November there will be rains due to the transit of Venus. This  would continue due to conjunction of Venus with Jupiter till 26^th November.  But if Mars plays a spoilsport in Dahana nadi (between 19^th Nov and 10^th Dec), there will be a respite from rainfall. Again rainfall starts from 13^th December and continues. The gap of nearly 20 days (Mars in Dahana nadi) can go a long way in averting a disastrous flood for Chennai even if rainfall picks up after 13^th December. So another period to test an astrological feature (Mars in Dahana nadi) in the coming days!

However with 3 strong rainfall support features happening in December with no spoilers around, I am afraid we may have to be well prepared for woeful times. (1) Mercury- Venus closeness, (2) both Mercury and Venus entering combustion and (3) importantly Saturn, Sun and Mars coming in alternating signs are all plentiful rainfall features with the last one found to be present during floods in the past.

Split-up details can be found in the table below:

1	October 31	Mercury comes out of combustion.	Spurt in rainfall in South West India / SW Tamilnadu.
2	November 3	Venus enters next sign to join Jupiter. Conjunction of Venus- Jupiter begins.	Spurt in rainfall in South India.
3	Till November 8	Venus in Chitra	Rainfall in South India.
4	November 13, 14	Venus crosses Jupiter.	Some meteorological event in the South (Bay).
5	November 19	Mars enters Chitra (Dahana Nadi)	Reduction in rainfall in S.India.
6	November 26	Venus enters next sign	Spurt in rainfall in S.India.
7	December 3	Mercury begins retrogression. Saturn and Mars in alternate signs with  Moon in trinal signs to them.	Some meteorological event in South (Bay) Rainfall.
8	December 6	Mercury begins combustion. Venus begins combustion.	Spurt in rainfall as both these planets begin combustion at the same time. Rainfall in SW Tamilnadu, South India.
9	December 10	Mars comes out of Dahana Nadi	Dry weather ends.
10	December 13	Mercury- Venus closeness begins	Some meteorological event. North part of east coast will get rains.
11	December 15	Venus crosses Mercury in forward motion.	Spurt in rainfall in South India / TN.
12	December 16	Sun enters next sign to join with Saturn. Saturn, Sun and Mars in alternate signs. Continues till season ends.	Heavy rainfall period in east coast, south west Tamilnadu.
13	December 18	Mercury comes out of combustion	Heavy rainfall in North and SW TN/ SW India.
14	December 28, 29, 30	Saturn, Sun and Mars in alternate signs with Moon in trinal signs.	Heavy rainfall in SW Tamilnadu.