Rainfall check -6 (For September 2016)

Update added at the end of the article on 29th September 2016.

Previous articles:-

Rainfall check - part 1  (Pre-Monsoon showers)

Rainfall check - part 2  (Cyclone Roanu in Bay of Bengal)

Rainfall check - part 3  (Late arrival of SW Monsoon)

Rainfall check - part 4  (For July 2016)

Rainfall check - part 5 (For August 2016)

The scenario for Chennai September 2016 is promising with rains already having started. Right from August 20^th, the planetary combinations for rainfall in Southern parts of India became favourable. It was written in my last month's Rainfall check.

In my post written on February 6th 2016, I noticed scope for formation of storms in August 2016 and wondered whether storms are common in August.

It did turn out that a Low Pressure had formed in the Bay in August and lent some impact to Chennai.

On the Update given on 30^th August, I wrote about the upcoming rains.

The rainfall during Sun’s sojourn through the star (Purva Phalguni) is something which will become proof of prediction in any current period. That means, if it rains in a particular place on the day / at the time of Sun entering a star it can be taken to mean that it will be wet in that place throughout the period of 13 to 14 days of Sun’s movement across that star.

On 30^th August, sun entered Purva Phalguni after 2 PM. It started raining then in my place of observation and it continues to be wet / raining till the time of writing this on 1^st September. The daily Garbottam chart also shows that it will rain on a regular basis during this part of Sun’s movement.

The rainfall prediction based on daily Garbottam observed 6 and a half months ago (Between February 22^nd to March 23^rd) is given below. Dates 1,2,3, 8 and 9^th September had good Garbottam in the corresponding dates and also Moon joining malefics like Rahu and Mars. This is shown in red colour in the chart. The rule is that if sun or moon joins malefics on the day of Garbottam, the rainfall period will see rains accompanied with thunders / storms / hail storms.

Another feature in the Garbottam chart given below is that there was a solar eclipse on the Garbottam observation period. Usually eclipses would mar the rainfall on the rainfall- impact day. That comes on 15^th and 16^th September. The corresponding dates also did not show Garbottam features.

Planetary combinations for rainfall.

Planetary combination for rainfall (ativrishti yoga) continues to exist in the month of September.

(1) Budha- Shukra Sameephya (closeness of Mercury and Venus) is getting over on 12^th September. This marks the end of SW Monsoon for the country.

The next closeness begins of October 27^th 2016 and lasts till 29^th December. That would ensure good rainfall in general thereby ensuring presence of NE Monsoon at that time. Day to day details of that period would be written in a separate post soon.

(2) Presently the following planetary combinations are favouring rainfall in southern regions of India.

a. Mercury is combust and in retrogression. Retrogression started on 30^th August. It was accompanied with a spurt in rainfall in Chennai. Combustion starts on the night of 6^th September. This is likely to trigger a meteorological phenomenon. The IMD foresees upper cyclonic circulation to be formed on 5^th September.

b. On 1^st September Mercury is crossing Jupiter by retrogression. This triggers rainfall. Mercury is crossing in Uttra Phalguni star which signifies countries of the South. This includes the regions of Eastern Ghats, Mahendra parva, Malaya parva (Kerala), catchment areas of Kavery, Vena (Pennai) etc, Ceylon, Kollam and western parts of Karnataka.

c. Sun is crossing Rahu on 3^rd, 4^th and 5^th September. This is also conducive for a trigger factor for some meteorological phenomenon. Rainfall is assured on these days in regions covered by Purva Phalguni namely South east India from Oddhisha to Andhra.

d. Till September 9^th all planets are behind the Sun. This ensures good rainfall until then in south east regions of India. After that Mercury crosses past the Sun to be in front of it thereby breaking the line-up. By 12^th September Mercury goes farther away from Venus thereby bringing an end to rainfall. Normally when this happens in September, it was found to mark the end of SW Monsoon in the past years.

e. However Venus – Jupiter continues in Virgo even after 9^th September. On 9^th Venus comes out of Nirjala Nadi – that is its sojourn in Uttra Phalguni. When Venus is crossing Uttra Phaoguni the rainfall will be deficient. Venus comes out of that phase and starts influencing rainfall along with Jupiter in the southern parts of India. Virgo signifies South. Hastha (in which Venus now passes through) and Uttra Phalguni (in which Jupiter is moving) signify regions of the South as mentioned in point b.

f. On 17^th September Sun enters Virgo. At that time Sun, Mars and Saturn will be in alternating signs. Sun will be in Virgo. Saturn and Mars will be in Scorpio, the sign that alternates with Virgo. This is a very good sign of plentiful rainfall. The same planetary combination occurred during Chennai floods last year. But unfortunately this combination will exist for only 24 hours. Mars will move out of Scorpio on 18^th September. Looking at Garbottam chart 17^th shows moderate rainfall, but 18^th is dry. This might indicate that favourable meteorological features might come up around that time but would get decimated soon. Thereafter the rainfall features are weak till the end of September. 

UPDATE on 25th September:-

The Garbottam chart for Chennai was almost exact on realization of rainfall except on 2 days. They were Sep 8th and Sep 15th. 

The corresponding Garbottam day for Sep 8th had moon conjunct with Rahu thereby indicating rainfall accompanied with thunder or storms. Surging clouds were witnessed on the evening of 8th but it did not rain. The plausible rationale is that the Garbottam features were not strong. My data shows that the corresponding day (March 1) had cloudy and cool breeze between 8 AM and 9 AM. This should have given rains, but a major planetary event was happening on 8th. Mercury was re-entering Leo backwards on that date. Usually, when it enters the next sign, it had triggered rainfall. But now it is entering the previous sign by backward motion, it had spoiled the rainfall! A spoiled rainfall / failed Grbottam must give plenty of rainfall in the next possible date. It happened on Sep 15th!

Ironically Sep 15th was  not supposed to have rainfall due to solar eclipse on the corresponding date. But it rained on 15th. When I checked the data and the thithi etc I found that though Amavasya started at 10-34 AM on March 8th, solar eclipse started on the early morning of March 9th. Garbottam had happened on 8th March around 11-30 AM. This was soon after Amavasya began. This shows that Garbottam can give rains if eclipse was not running at that time. This also means that the entire day need not be rejected on account of eclipse. Only the exact timing matters. Moreover the deferred rainfall due to Mercury's re-entry into the previous sign had to give its due on this date as it is the next major Garbottam realization day. 

***********

The general rainfall scenario for this month of September followed the planetary predictions - but with an exception. From September 21st onwards, heavy rains lashed Andhra Pradesh and Telangana with Hyderabad receiving the century's highest rainfall for September during this period. Many areas were flooded with Mahanadi posing flood-threat.

Source: Skymet weather

Earlier in the article I have noted down the date - 17th September as the date capable of giving heavy rains. But the combination dissipated within 24 hours. 

The heavy rainfall that started on 21st can be linked to the movement of Mercury. Mercury was in retrogression from August 30th onwards. It did rain on that date. Further on Mercury moved backwards and entered the previous sign Leo on September 8th - 9th. The re-entry failed to give rain to South India / Tamilnadu (Mercury in Uttara Phalguni) at that time. Mercury kept moving into the sign till 21st September. On that date it reached the limit of its retrogression and on 22nd it started the forward motion. These two dates were marked with heavy rains on the regions denoted by Purva Phalguni as Mercury was moving in that star. The regions coming under Purva Phalguni are those from Andhra Pradesh to Oddhisha, Kiskinda (North of Deccan plateau) South of Vindhya mountains. These regions received heavy rainfall on the dates starting from Mercury's turn around motion. 

These rains will continue till 30th September as Mercury continues to be in Purva Phalguni until them. Thereafter it enters Uttara Phalguni. Uttara Phalguni indicates region south of Andhra, that is, Tamilnadu. On 3rd October, Mercury re-enters Virgo where it will be chasing Jupiter. Normally entry into a sign has come with rainfall. This time it is re-entry in the forward direction. This is likely to trigger rainfall as Garbottam chart for October for Chennai shows rainfall from October 4th onwards. 



UPDATE on 29th September:

It rained well since 26th September in Chennai in my place and other parts of Chennai. The Garbottam chart shows rains on 25th September and not on dates after that. When I checked the data, I found that the Garbottam occurred on 17th March in Arudra star. Though the corresponding date is 25th September, the garbottam in Arudra can give rains for many days in the rainfall realisation  date. As per rule if good Garbottam occurs in Arudra star in the month of Panguni, it would rain for 24 days in the realisation period. 

Quoting from my first article in the current series on Rainfall observation (here):-

On March 16th and 17th when Moon was transiting Arudra there was cloudiness at night and day. Sun was hidden for most part and there was pleasant breeze. The result started in 26th September and is likely to continue for 24 days as per rule. The further Garbottam chart for October shows wetness on most days in October though the intensity of rains is not high on all days. 

Another feature corresponding to the rainfall date is the forward transit of Mercury after retrogression in Purva phalguni star. Generally Purva Phalguni gives rains. Moon is also presently transiting the sign of Leo where Purva phalguni is located. All these combine to ensure wet climate.

SWM retreat:

As per IMD, SWM started retreating from 28th September onwards. In the article above I connected the retreat / withdrawal to the ending of Mercury- Venus closeness. It occurred on 12th September. But the actual retreat started on 28th September. When I checked the distances between Mercury and Venus, I found out a new revelation. Mercury and Venus were at their maximum gap of 48 degrees from 28th September onwards. This lasts till 5th October. From 6th October onwards, the gap is getting reduced gradually degree by degree. Therefore the learning is that monsoon retreat starts when these two planets reach the maximum distance between themselves.  

On 27th October the closeness between Mercury and Venus begins thereby ushering in a rainfall period again which can be linked to NEM. On that date, Mercury is in deep conjunction with Sun and will be behind Venus by 7 degrees. This is perfect setting for good rainfall. 

However my Garbottam chart for October shows that on the corresponding Garbottam date for 25th October - which was April 17th, , wind direction changed for the first time to south- south west. That means wind direction will be from North - North east from 25th October onwards. I am eager to check this onset of wind in October. The details will be posted shortly. 

Rainfall check -5 (For August 2016)

Update added at the end of the article on 30th August 2016

Previous articles:-

Rainfall check - part 1  (Pre-Monsoon showers)

Rainfall check - part 2  (Cyclone Roanu in Bay of Bengal)

Rainfall check - part 3  (Late arrival of SW Monsoon)

Rainfall check - part 4  (For July 2016)

The month of August 2016 comes with some important planetary events that cause widespread and plentiful rainfall. The dates of those important events are listed below.

July 31 – August 1= Venus enters the next sign Leo to join Mercury, Rahu and Jupiter. There will be a spurt in rainfall or a meteorological event on these days that triggers rainfall.

Places benefited by rainfall = Leo is the sign where this conjunction happens and where Venus enters. Leo signifies eastern direction. Countries in the eastern part of India including the places in the east coast of Peninsular India.

Venus enters Magha star which indicates South Eastern sections of India. According to Brihad samhita, this includes the countries of Kosala, Kalinga, Vanga, Upavanga, Jatharanga, SUlika, Vidabhas, Vatsa, Andra, Chedi, Urdhvakantha, the islands of Vrisha, of Nalikera and if Carma, the countries of Vidarbharaga and other countries in the Vindhya mountains, of Tripuri, Shmasrudharas, Hemakudya, Vyalagriva, Mahagriva, Kishkindha, Kantakasthala, Nishada, Purika, Dasharna, Nagna, Parna and Shabara.

In a nutshell these regions are in and around the Vindhya mountain ranges. The eastern coast of India upto Andhra also is included in the list. Middle parts of Peninsular India also is included.

I have tried to locate some of the regions that can be identified from this list in the following map of India

These regions will experience a spurt in rainfall.

  

August 9 = Mercury crosses Rahu. Whenever Mercury and Venus cross Rahu or Ketu there is a spurt in rainfall or a meteorological event. Thereafter, Mercury is close behind Jupiter with no planet in between. This is a fine ativrishti yoga that causes heavy rainfall.

Mercury crosses Rahu in Purva Phalguni (Pooram). This covers the same places that were benefited by plentiful rainfall in July when Jupiter was crossing Purva phalguni. This includes the places benefited by transit of Venus to Leo on August 1.

Places benefited by rainfall = (Same as above in the map) Kosala, Kalinga (Oddisha), Vanga, Upavanga, Jatharanga, Vidharba, Vatsa, Andhra, Chedi, countries in and around the Vindhya mountains, Kishkindha, Nishada, Sabara etc will receive good rains.

August 16 = 3 important meteorologically important planetary events happen on this date. (1) Sun enters Leo to join Venus, Mercury, Rahu and Jupiter. (2) On this date, Venus crosses Rahu (3) Jupiter enters Virgo.

Sun followed by all planets cause flood like situation.

Venus crossing Rahu causes a spurt / trigger to rainfall by means of a meteorological event. Both these events are associated with heavy rains and floods. Quoting from my article on the 5th day of Solar Garbottam that was posted on 4^th January 2016, there is likely to be a repeat of 2011 floods after 16^th August.

From the same article, another observation on conjunction of Mercury / Venus with Rahu / Ketu is reproduced below.

The line-up of all planets behind the Sun from 16^th August and conjunction of Venus and Rahu happening on the same date are indicative of spurt in rainfall and floods in the following regions indicate by Magha, Purva phalguni and sign Leo.

The places are the same as written above – both north and south of Vindhyas (Madhyapradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh ),  central Peninsular India, south east coast of Peninsular India that include Oddhisha, Andhra, Bengal, countries of Kosala, Tripura, Vidhabha, Hemakuta, Kishkindha, Mahanadhi etc. These regions are vulnerable for floods. The rivers in this region (shown in the map above) are likely to overflow. The elongated circle shows the regions vulnerable for heavy flooding. As Vindhya region gets repeated in all these planetary combinations, Narmada river can be expected to be in spate.

August 20 = Mercury enters Virgo to be with Jupiter. Mercury – Jupiter closeness with no planet in between is a good ativrishti yoga.

Places benefited by rainfall = Virgo stands for South. Uttra Phalguni in which Mercury – Jupiter closeness happens indicates south India as a whole including Karnataka, Kerala and Tamilnadu. In the terms of Brihad samhita, regions of Kaveri river, Vena river (Pennai) Ruhyamukha parvada, Malya parvada, Mahendra parvada, Konkan, Nasik, Chitrakuta, Avanti are indicated by Uttar Phalguni.

 August 25 = Venus enters Virgo. This triggers a meteorological event. The places as mentioned above in the South are benefited by plenty of rainfall.

Rainfall scenario for Chennai.

The solar Garbottam observed on 2^nd and 3^rd January 2016 is indicative of rainfall in the first fortnight and the 2^nd fortnight of August respectively. Those 2 days (4th day Garbottam and 5th day Garbottam) showed less or nil features of positive Garbottam for Chennai though the planetary combinations are good for rainfall from SW Monsoon.

However the day-to-day observation of Garbottam in January- February  showed hope for rainfall in the second half of August for Chennai. The chart showing the August prospects is produced below.

Inference:-

·   

    August begins with mild rainfall or cloudiness.

·       From the middle of August wet days begin.

·       22^nd August is the day of AavaNi Muzhakkam (6^th day of Aavani). Thunderbolts must be heard on that day if the remaining season is to experience plentiful rainfall.  The Garbottam chart shows dry weather on that day.

·       Yet another school of Thought says that AavaNi muzhakkam must be observed on 8^th day of Aavani. This is 24^th August. On that day there must be heavy thunderbolts if the ensuing rainfall season (NEM) has to be bountiful. Garbottam chart shows that there will be rains on that day thereby enhancing the chances of presence of cloud formation / thunderbolts on that day.

·       Keeping up with tradition, there will be rains on the night of Gokulashtami this year. Gokulashtami is on 24^th August. Vaikanasa Sri Jayanthi is on 25th and Pancharatra Sri Jayanthi is on 26^th August. On these days there is likely to be rains at night as per Garbottam chart.

Particularly the day that corresponds to 25^th August showed good cloud formation hiding the sun. Writing on that I produced some photos of clouds as on 15^th February 2016 which is related to rainfall prospects on 25^th August.

Sun at Noon on 15^th February 2016.

 This was seen at noon time of 15-02-2016.  Surging layers of dark clouds were coming from the southern sky.

If this materialises into rainfall on 25^th August, there must be rainfall at midnight of 25^th and the rainfall must come from northern direction.  Let me wait and watch.

A word of caution after observing July rainfall based on related Garbottam.

Rains had materialised if the Garbottam day had good winds, dark clouds hiding the sun and drizzles for at least half an hour. When only the first 2 were noticed for 10 to 15 minutes (less than half an hour), the realisation day experienced cloudy weather but rains eluded. Overall, it was observed that Garbottam had kept its date by showing atleast cloudy weather and mild drizzles on the rain- realisation dates of July. One can check it with July Rainfall check blog.  

UPDATE on 13th August 2016.

On August 9th Mercury crossed Rahu. As earlier said in the article, Venus, Mercury or Jupiter crossing Rahu or Ketu cause a spurt in the rains or trigger to the rains or trigger a meteorological event. The following was reported in www. chennairains.com on 10th August 2016.

Season's first monsoon Depression was triggered on 9th August and was located in the regions signified by Purva Phalguni in which Mercury crossed Rahu on 9th August. The regions as written above in the article are 

// Kosala, Kalinga (Oddisha), Vanga, Upavanga, Jatharanga, Vidharba, Vatsa, Andhra, Chedi, countries in and around the Vindhya mountains, Kishkindha, Nishada, Sabara etc will receive good rains.//

The eye of the depression is in Kalinga (Oddisha), vanga(Bengal) etc which can be made out from the map.

The next meteorological event is expected to be triggered on 16th August which can bring devastating floods as per the line-up of all the planets happening behind the Sun with Sun entering Leo on 16th August. 

The notification released by the IMD at 10 PM today says that a low pressure area is likely to develop in North West Bay around 16th August. 

UPDATE on 15th August 2016. 

The rainfall triggered by August 9th planetary combination had gone well with the places related to it, namely Madhya Pradesh (Vindhya regions) and Vanga (Bengal / Kolkatta)

The report on rainfall scenario in Madhya Pradesh posted today (15th August) can be read here. The salient feature of that report is reproduced below.

The Kolkatta scenario can be read in this link posted by Skymet today (15th August).

The bottom line of these scenario is that SWM had benefited the places which are not usually benefited. In the first article in this series written on December 25, 2015, I had written that the upcoming year (2016) of Durmukhi varusham will see mixed trend of rains owing to Neela Megha and thunder storm related rains owing to Mars becoming the Meghadhipathi and also the ruling planet of Arudra Pravesha. The trend so far is on these lines only. Reproduced below is that part of the article posted on 25th December 2015. (Next year mentioned there refers to 2016 Monsoon season)

  

The insights gained until now on Garbottam - realization theories:

So far it has been observed that planetary combinations play a greater role in influencing rainfall. I am waiting for tomorrow (16th August) for the kind of meteorological developments related to the ones I have written in the above article. I consider it as the ultimate check point which must be followed by me in writing down the rainfall situation for the rest of the months, particularly NE Monsoon. It is because planetary combinations are conducive  for about a month between October and November for very good rainfall from NE Monsoon, but local garbottam observation for Chennai is bleak and shows sparing rainfall for Chennai in particular. It may not be so for South Tamilnadu. Just waiting to cross check with the developments in the coming week.

UPDATE on 16th August 2016.

System forming in West Bay of Bengal that is likely to influence rainfall in east India in the coming days. Source- Skymet weather

Another system developing in the North Bay which will manifest on 20th August. Note the dates tallying with planetary combinations. The following is from IMD.

UPDATE on 30th August 2016.

Planets have kept their date with rainfall! On 25th August, Venus entered Virgo to join with Mercury and Jupiter. This could trigger rainfall in Southern regions, I had written in the article above. The rains started on that day in Chennai and coastal Tamilnadu and Andhra. At the same time Parts of Kerala and Cauvery catchment regions in Karnataka also started receiving rainfall. 

More interestingly, the direction of rainfall for coastal regions of Tamilnadu particularly Chennai was from NE as though this is NEM season. But in my post written on February 6th 2016 I wrote about peculiar hot and cold conditions witnessed on that date with movement of wind from SW to NE. This means the rainfall days after 6 and a half months, the direction of rains / winds would be from NE which can happen only if there is Depression of Low Pressure in the Bay of Bengal in August. Normally Bay Depressions / Low Pressures are rare in August. In that post I had a discussion with Mr Srikanth of Chennairains.com on the probability of having Bay Depression in August.

But now it has turned out to be a Low Pressure in the Bay off Vijayawada which is giving current rains to Chennai, though coastal Andhra is greatly getting benefited by this now. 

The dates tallied with movement of Venus into Virgo. 

Two more events happened in this period on 30th August. 

(1) Mercury started retrogression while being within 1 degree in front of Jupiter. It is going to cross Jupiter tomorrow (31st August) This has given rise to widespread rains to Chennai now with daily Garbottam also favouring it.

(2) Sun entered the next star, i.e., Purva Phalguni today (30th August). The rainfall rule is that if it rains on the day Sun enters a star, it would rain throughout the 14 day period of Sun crossing over that star. The Daily Garbottam chart for September (which will be posted on 1st September) shows that this period would be wet! 

This feature also means that the same period next year (when Sun re-enters Purva Phalguni in 2017) there wont be rains for the duration of 14 days that Sun crosses over. 

Another observation was that Ganges overflowed and caused floods affecting 30K people in the period after August 16th. Many places in Central India are experienced flood during the same period. 

29th July 2016 – watch out this day to predict NE monsoon.

Update added at the end of the article on prediction of NE Monsoon based on this day. 

Tomorrow the 29^th of July is important on 2 counts for rainfall prediction. One is that it is ‘Rohini Yoga’ day – a day that is watched intensely throughout the period of moon crossing Rohini star. This day is watched to predict rainfall in the next 4 months that include NE monsoon season for Tamilnadu.

This day occurs every year, but what is additionally occurring this year is that this day coincides with the waning phase of Dasami and Ekasdasi. This combination is called “Aadi-thithi-k-kuri” This is a rare occurrence which was pinpointed in Arcot Panchangam and interpreted to indicate once in 400 years rains.

On this day if thunder showers are experienced at twilight, there will be good rains in the next 4 months. Even the presence of thunder clouds on this day is said to favour good rainfall in the next 4 months. So anyone from anywhere in India can watch for thunder showers or cloudy weather on this day in their location to know whether there will be rains in their place of observation.

As far as Chennai is concerned, the corresponding day for 3rd day of Solar Garbottam that started from the evening of 31^st December 2015 till the evening of 1^st January 2016 was favourable for rainfall between 19^th July 2016 and 2^nd August 2016. The direction of rainfall would be from South and south west during this period. So far we have witnessed wet days during this period. For Chennai 29^th and 30^th July must have good rainfall if we go by the daily Garbottam in the corresponding dates of January 19^th and 20^th of 2016.

(For details of this chart read Garbottam chart for July  posted on 6^th Feb 2016)

If the Garbottam keeps up its promise of rainfall tomorrow, then the NE season will be good for Chennai. Details Garbottam charts for NE season will be posted soon.

Coming to the first feature called “Rohini Yoga” this concept was first communicated by Narada to Brihaspati from whom it was transferred to Garga, Parasara, Kashyapa and Maya.

Rohini yoga starts when Moon enters Rohini at 6-45 AM tomorrow (on 29^th July) and exits Rohini at 5-13 AM on 30^th July.

This period of roughly 22 and a half hours must be divided into 8 equal parts which comes to roughly 2 hours 50 minutes each. Each part relates to one fortnight each starting from the month of Aavani and ending in Karthigai. According to Rishi Garga, the observation is enough for the day time of Rohini. This day time must be divided into 4 parts with each part relating to the months from Aavani onwards. We can check both, but for commoners like us the day time observation only is possible.

Watch the wind.

During each part of the Rohini day one must watch the nature of wind and its direction. Winds must be breezy and not wild. Winds coming from North and north east favour good rainfall later. If the winds blow from a fixed direction, there will be rains in that direction benefiting the lands in that direction. In olden days a white cloth was tied on top of the poles to see the nature and direction of the wind.

Watch the cloud.

·       Formation of huge clouds, black in certain parts and white in certain parts and appearing to be twisted together.

·       Sky filled with black clouds everywhere with lightening

·       Clouds appearing like huge elephants and dark in colour.

·       Immediately before sun rise and after sun set, clouds must “appear in the colour of  blue lotus and with lightning, resemble the dark Vishnu in cloth of gold.” (Brihad samhita 24-18).

The part of the day when these features of wind and cloud are present will indicate good rainfall in the corresponding part of the next 4 months.

At night moon must be seen on the north east of Rohini star. This ensures good rainfall in the upcoming months. (Moon will be seen after mid night tomorrow at 2-20 AM).

Combination of the 2 features.

While Rohini Yoga does not foresee rainfall tomorrow but only cloudy weather accompanied with lightening and thunder, the Aadi-thithi-k-kuri of Rohini joining Dasami and Ekadasi comes with thunder showers at twilight, particularly evening twilight. It also comes with cloudy weather for 3 days – from the preceding to the succeeding day. The Solar Garbottam shows rainfall on Rohini day and the day after. Let us wait and watch.

PS: Behind all this, a lurking question in my mind is why the rainfall for the current period of Mercury – Venus closeness is not as expected to be abundant. The one feature that seems to mar rainfall for the whole of India is the transit of Saturn in Anusha (Anuradha) star. It is called Vayu nadi that shows windiness but no rains. In fact the winds will carry away the clouds resulting in failure of rainfall. Barring Saturn, other planets are not in afflicting positions. This feature of Saturn also must be borne in mind while predicting rainfall.

1	Vayu Nadi	Kri, Vishaka,  Anusha, Bharani	Saturn	Windy, No rains
2	Vayu Nadi	Ro, Swati, Jyesh, Aswini	Sun	Windy, Rains
3	Dahana Nadi	Mri, Chith, Moola, Revathy	Mars	Heat, Dry weather
4	Sowmya Nadi	Aru,  Hastha, P-dhada, U-Bhadra	Mercury	Windy, Less rains
5	Nirjala Nadi	Punar,  U.Phal, U-shada, P-Bhadra	Venus	Cloudy, But no rains
6	Jala Nadi	Pushya, P.Phal, Abhijit, Shatabhishak	Jupiter	Plentiful rainfall
7	Amirtha Nadi	Aslesha, Magha, Sravana, Dhanishta	Moon	Excessive rainfall

UPDATE after watching the day:-

Going by Rishi Garga's rule of watching the day time of Rohini into 4 parts, the first part was cool, cloudy, breezy and even accompanied with drizzles. Therefore rains can be expected in AavaNi. The Garbottam chart for AavaNi for Chennai also shows rains in AavaNi (Aug - Sep) 

The 2nd part of the day was hot and the air was still but towards the end it became breezy, cool with clouds covering the sun. This can be interpreted to mean that the last week of Purattasi would see rains. This also tallies with Solar Garbottam for that part of the year.

The 3rd part of the day was hot with no winds. However the end of the 3rd part of the day and the beginning of the 4 part of the day saw good formation of the clouds in south and east and some breezy weather. Towards sunset all clouds faded away and it was reported that it rained in the sea after nightfall. A few places in chennai received drizzles or mild showers at night. No thunderbolts were heard in my place of observation.

This can be interpreted to mean that there will be rains in the 2nd half of Aippasi and the 1st half of Karthigai. (November). The lesser intensity of clouds and breeze show that 2015 like disastrous rains can not be expected this year.