கர்போட்டம் பார்க்கலாமா? (காணொளி)

கர்போட்டம் என்னும் சொல்லை நாம் தமிழ் பஞ்சாங்கங்களில் பார்க்கிறோம். மார்கழி மாதம் சூரியன் பூராடம் நட்சத்திரத்தில் சஞ்சரிக்கும் காலமே கர்போட்டம் பார்க்கும் நேரமாகும். அப்பொழுது உலகிலும், வானிலும் தெரியும் சில அறிகுறிகளைக் கொண்டு, அடுத்த வருடம் எப்பொழுது மழை பெய்யும் என்று கண்டு பிடிக்கும் பழமையான முறையே கர்போட்டம் என்பதாகும். அதைப் பற்றிய அறிமுகத்தை இந்தக் காணொளி தருகிறது.

Solar (Margazhi) Garbottam is the basis for general prediction of monsoon next year.

After 2 years of round-the-year observation of astro-meteorology, I have zeroed in on certain features as most reliable ones. They are three in number.

(1) Solar or Margazhi Garbottam that lasts for nearly13 days. This is the time Sun is moving across Purvashada (Pooradam). Each day of this period corresponds to roughly 13 days of Sun’s transit in a star starting from Arudra which happens in June, that is., Vaikasi.

(2) Daily Garbottam which is to be watched every day from December to July. Every day of this period corresponds to 195^th day later. Presence of Garbottam on a day is indicative of rainfall after 195 days.

(3) Planetary combinations that support or spoil rainfall at the time of rainfall.

All the three are supposed to work in tandem and must work in tandem to ensure good rainfall. In 2016 they were so and we found only less deviation. Whether rainfall is good or bad, these three must indicate the same thing.

The situation is a little different in 2017 as we find non-concurrence within these three. When non-concurrence is there, which one takes the lead is found out in this year’s situation.

This year (2017) there were 2 major planetary combinations - one occurred in SWM and another (others) in NEM season. The former one was a singular event of Venus in eastern sky in the morning transiting stars Magha to Chitra between Sep 15^th and Nov 8^th. This corresponded to Solar Garbottam which was posted on 12th Dec, 2017 The relevant part of the table from that post is reproduced below. It rained during this period till Venus completed this transit on 8^th November.

Day	Date of Garbottam	Observation	Date of Impact (Fortnight)	Prediction
7	3rd - 4th Jan, 2017	Wind- Occasional Drizzles- Nil Lightening- Nil Thunder-Nil Clouds-Good	13th September to 26thSeptember 2017.	Good rains in the 2nd quarter of the fortnight. Between 18thand 21st Sep 2017.
8	4th – 5th Jan, 2017	Wind- Occasional Drizzles- Nil Lightening- Nil Thunder-Nil Clouds- Moderate to Good.	27th September to 10th October 2017.	Moderate rainfall in the 2nd quarter of the fortnight. Between 29th Sep and 2ndOctober 2017
9	5th - 6th Jan, 2017	Wind- Good Drizzles- Nil Lightening- Nil Thunder-Nil Clouds- Good	11th October to 23rd October 2017.	Good rainfall in the middle of the fortnight. Between 14thand 18thOctober 2017.
10	6th - 7th Jan, 2017	Wind- Good. Drizzles- Nil Lightening- Nil Thunder-Nil Clouds- Good.	24th October to 6th November 2017.	Rainfall in the 1st week of November.
11	7th - 8th Jan, 2017	Wind- Nil Drizzles- Nil Lightening- Nil Thunder-Nil Clouds- Nil	7th November to 19thNovember 2017.	Dry weather.
12	8th - 9th Jan, 2017	Wind- Nil Drizzles- Nil Lightening- Nil Thunder-Nil Clouds- Nil.	19th November to 2ndDecember 2017.	Dry conditions.
13	9th - 10th Jan, 2017	Wind- Occasional Drizzles- Nil Lightening- Nil Thunder-Nil Clouds- Good.	2nd December to 15thDecember 2017.	Good rains in the middle of the fortnight. Between 6thand 10thDecember 2017.

One can notice that Solar Garbottam gave dry days from the 2^nd week of November till the end of December with only a few days (6^th to 10^th   Dec) showing rainfall. This means the major part of NEM 2017 is dry.

Coming to the planetary combinations, the last set of planetary combinations for the year in support of rainfall started on 13^th December (Venus- Mercury closeness) while another set started on 16^th December. This happened almost in the fag-end of the NEM season. Both of them continued till December end with the former ending on 9^th January 2018 and the latter on 14^th January 2018.

The reality check shows that the planetary combinations didn’t work in the absence of Solar Garbottam.

The potency of these sets of planetary combinations cannot be doubted as we saw the dates of their occurrence tallying with the directions exactly – but not within the location of NEM. For example, the western section indicated by them pulled cyclone Ockhi to west of India, to Lakshadweep and Mumbai. The North- North east indicator which in normal circumstances should have helped northern limits of NEM regions, dragged it to NE India and Bangladesh. What was South West went beyond India and benefited Arabian Peninsula. What was east rained at Philippines!

Witnessing all these, the inference we can make is that in the absence of Solar or Margazhi Garbottam, the rainfall expected over larger regions under the aid of planetary combinations do not necessarily materialise.  

For Chennai, the local Garbottam also was for a few days in NEM and that is what had happened.

In this NEM (2017) 2/3 features did not support rainfall for Chennai. They are Solar Garbottam and local Garbottam. Even though 3 sets of planetary combinations were present from 13^th December onwards, they could not bring in rainfall.

Since the same trend is found throughout Tamilnadu, I have to assume that solar and local Garbottam were negative for rest of TN also. If more people start watching Garbottam in their respective regions at least during the Solar Garbottam, it will be useful to draw better inferences.

PS.

I am planning to start a blog exclusively for astro-weather prediction. I will start posting the basics of Garbottam and how to predict rainfall through that. Initial post will be intimated in the current blogspot while no more weather posts will appear here. Interested ones are kindly asked to follow that blog (after the announcement is made here). However I will be regularly tweeting my posts of the weather blog.  

Rainfall check - 8 (NEM - Nov-Dec 2017)

Previous articles:-

Rainfall 2017 – Level 1(Panchanga-based)

Rainfall 2017 – Level 2 (Planetary combinations)

Rainfall 2017 – Level 3 (Margazhi / Solar Garbottam).

Margazhi Garbottam 2016-17 in a nutshell.

Rainfall 2017 - Level 4 (Daily Garbottam)

Rainfall Check -1 (March 2017)

Rainfall check - 2 (April 2017)

Rainfall check - 3 (May 2017)

Rainfall check -4 (June 2017)

Rainfall check - 5 (July 2017)

Rainfall check - 6 (August 2017)

Rainfall check -7 (September 2017)

This blog is posted at a time Southern India is receiving good rains and Chennai at the verge of fear of a repeat of NEM 2015. The SWM season was good for Chennai in particular, receiving rains from Kaalamegha. The current year being Kaalamegha and the Meghadhipati being Mercury, sudden formation of dark thunderclouds happened on many days during the day-time giving some fleeting moments of sudden rains. In the NEM season, the following are the rainfall support features.

Rainfall-support features:

1. Venus in the eastern sky before dawn transiting the stars Magha, Purva phalguni, Uttra Phalguni, Hasta and Chitra between September 15^th and November 8^th. The following was written on Sep 1^st (here)

2. Combustion of Mercury for a prolonged period between 22^nd September and 31^st October. The following was written on Sep 1^st.

The next combustion dates are between 6^th December and 18^th December, 2017. This period will be wet while the start and end dates would see heavy rainfall.

3. Combustion of Venus between 6^th December 2017 and 10 February 2018. Like Mercury, when Venus enters combustion, there will be heavy rains on that date and rainfall would continue during the combustion period. If the combustion period falls in winter season, there would fog or snow or dip in temperature depending on the place. There are enough indications including this feature for colder winter and snowfall in high latitudes in 2017-18.

4. Venus – Jupiter conjunction between 3^rd November and 26^th November. This ensures good rainfall.

5. Mars and Saturn in alternate signs (7^th and 9^th) from the moon there will be heavy rainfall. On 1^st and 2^nd December, this combination occurs.  Again from 16^th December onwards, Mars, Saturn and Sun are going to be in alternate signs. This feature was found during floods in the past.

6. Sun in Vayu Nadi between 23^rd October and 6^th November. This causes rainfall combined with winds.

7. Mercury- Venus closeness begins on 13^th December and lasts till 9^th January 2018. This is a strong rainfall supportive feature.

Rainfall spoiling features:

1. Mars in Dahana Nadi between 19^th November and 10^th December. This would cause dry weather.

2. Saturn in front of all planets until 6^th December.

Inference:

Taking the last feature first, Saturn in front of all planets would cause dry weather. Similarly Mars in front of all planets would cause dry weather. The near drought conditions since  August 2016 till July this year could be attributed to Mars moving in front of all the planets. This year Saturn was in the lead but it was not a bad spoiler of rains like Mars was. Reasons could be that Mars (fiery planet) in the front is more damaging than Saturn in the front. Second, there were rainfall support features this year but they were almost absent last year when Mars was in the forefront. So a combined effect seems to play a role in bringing rainfall.

This season (NEM) Venus in the east in the 5 stars had turned to be a first rate supporter of rainfall.  Till now I was of the opinion that Mercury- Venus closeness was a pre-condition for good rainfall. Though that works unmistakably in giving rainfall, Venus’s transit in those 5 stars proved to be a more effective feature for rainfall even in the absence of Venus- Mercury closeness.

This feature is anyway needed to be watched in upcoming years, as a reversal of the direction (in west) in the same stars would cause drought!

November 2017

In November Venus Jupiter combination is a major contributor for rainfall (between 3^rd and 26^th November), but Mars is likely to play spoilsport almost during the same time when it transits Dahana Nadi between 19^th Nov and 10^th Dec.

Looking at the record of Solar / Margazhi Garbottam observed in Dec 2016 – Jan 2017, (here), dry weather is indicated after 8^th November and revival from December in tune with beginning of Mercury – Venus closeness. The relevant part of the chart is shown below. The last 2 columns indicate rainfall realisation periods.

December 2017:

December looks like a clean sweep for Mercury- Venus closeness on the one hand while Saturn and Mars transit alternate signs could do a supportive role. Yet another support comes from Venus entering combustion. There is only one spoiler with Mars transiting Dahana nadi but that ends on 10^th December. Thereafter, Mercury- Venus closeness begins. So December seems to be wetter than November.

Now the big question – will Chennai see a repeat of 2015?

Till 8^th November there will be rains due to the transit of Venus. This  would continue due to conjunction of Venus with Jupiter till 26^th November.  But if Mars plays a spoilsport in Dahana nadi (between 19^th Nov and 10^th Dec), there will be a respite from rainfall. Again rainfall starts from 13^th December and continues. The gap of nearly 20 days (Mars in Dahana nadi) can go a long way in averting a disastrous flood for Chennai even if rainfall picks up after 13^th December. So another period to test an astrological feature (Mars in Dahana nadi) in the coming days!

However with 3 strong rainfall support features happening in December with no spoilers around, I am afraid we may have to be well prepared for woeful times. (1) Mercury- Venus closeness, (2) both Mercury and Venus entering combustion and (3) importantly Saturn, Sun and Mars coming in alternating signs are all plentiful rainfall features with the last one found to be present during floods in the past.

Split-up details can be found in the table below:

1	October 31	Mercury comes out of combustion.	Spurt in rainfall in South West India / SW Tamilnadu.
2	November 3	Venus enters next sign to join Jupiter. Conjunction of Venus- Jupiter begins.	Spurt in rainfall in South India.
3	Till November 8	Venus in Chitra	Rainfall in South India.
4	November 13, 14	Venus crosses Jupiter.	Some meteorological event in the South (Bay).
5	November 19	Mars enters Chitra (Dahana Nadi)	Reduction in rainfall in S.India.
6	November 26	Venus enters next sign	Spurt in rainfall in S.India.
7	December 3	Mercury begins retrogression. Saturn and Mars in alternate signs with  Moon in trinal signs to them.	Some meteorological event in South (Bay) Rainfall.
8	December 6	Mercury begins combustion. Venus begins combustion.	Spurt in rainfall as both these planets begin combustion at the same time. Rainfall in SW Tamilnadu, South India.
9	December 10	Mars comes out of Dahana Nadi	Dry weather ends.
10	December 13	Mercury- Venus closeness begins	Some meteorological event. North part of east coast will get rains.
11	December 15	Venus crosses Mercury in forward motion.	Spurt in rainfall in South India / TN.
12	December 16	Sun enters next sign to join with Saturn. Saturn, Sun and Mars in alternate signs. Continues till season ends.	Heavy rainfall period in east coast, south west Tamilnadu.
13	December 18	Mercury comes out of combustion	Heavy rainfall in North and SW TN/ SW India.
14	December 28, 29, 30	Saturn, Sun and Mars in alternate signs with Moon in trinal signs.	Heavy rainfall in SW Tamilnadu.

Rainfall check - 7 (September 2017)

Previous articles:-

Rainfall 2017 – Level 1(Panchanga-based)

Rainfall 2017 – Level 2 (Planetary combinations)

Rainfall 2017 – Level 3 (Margazhi / Solar Garbottam).

Margazhi Garbottam 2016-17 in a nutshell.

Rainfall 2017 - Level 4 (Daily Garbottam)

Rainfall Check -1 (March 2017)

Rainfall check - 2 (April 2017)

Rainfall check - 3 (May 2017)

Rainfall check -4 (June 2017)

Rainfall check - 5 (July 2017)

Rainfall check - 6 (August 2017)

Almost half way through the rainfall season, two rainfall supportive features have emerged as reliable ones, that were outlined earlier and subject to observation.

(1) The Megha and Meghadipati of the Year.

These two were discussed in the 1^st article of this series. The Megha for the current year is Kāḷa megha and Meghadhipati is Mercury.

From the 1^st  article posted on 26th December, 2016 :-

So far, rainfall in most parts of India had come from Kāḷa megha formation of clouds. Tamilnadu in particular received rainfall from this kind of Megha (Thunder shower). Mercury as the Meghadhipati of the current year plays supportive role for Kāḷa megha.

Inference:- When Megha and Meghadhipati concur with each other, the feature (rainfall or lack of it) indicated by them becomes the general feature of the overall rainfall scenario.  

(2) Venus- Mercury closeness.

When these two planets move towards each other there had been a spurt in rainfall. The periods of closeness for this year was posted on 27^th Dec 2016, in this link.

Now that we are in the third round of such closeness, we can expect good rainfall based on the past experience from the former two periods

Within this period, the planetary based rainfall supportive periods was posted on the same article on 27^th December, 2016.

The following is taken out from that article:-

Inference:- Venus – Mercury closeness  is an unmistakable feature which this writer cross-with past data. Rainfall could have occurred in the absence of this closeness. But this closeness had ensured rainfall.

The astrological feature to be tested in September 2017.

Venus is the foremost planet coming to the aid of rainfall. Whenever it is moving ahead of Mercury and Sun, it is supposed to give plentiful rainfall. But this year it is behind these two for most part. However, a specific location of Venus in certain stars is supposed to give plentiful rainfall. This feature is going to appear in September and continue for some time.  This is the first time in my personal observation since last year, this feature is coming up and I hope it comes out true.

Venus in the Eastern sky transiting Magha, Purva Phalguni, Uttara Phalguni, Hasta and Chithrai gives plentiful rainfall. This begins on 15^th September and ends on 8^th November 2017.

Till the end of year, Venus is going to be behind the Sun. Between 5^th and 9^th of January 2018, it is going to cross the Sun after more than a year. In a rainy season this could give heavy rains. But this feature coming in January makes me think that it would trigger heavy fog. Cloudy days observed in August (Tamil month of Avani) correspond to this period. The upcoming year could very start with cold and foggy nights. Places in Europe and the USA could experience heavy snowfall right from the middle of December 2017, when Venus- Mercury closeness begins.

Coming to the topic of this article:-

Rainfall supportive features in September:-

(1) Venus- Mercury closeness between 27^th August to 8^th October.

With Mercury in retrogression, these two planets seem to be moving towards each other. On 1^st September they are 22 degrees apart. This gap narrows down up to 10 degrees on 14^th September, after which they start drifting apart (due to end of retrogression of Mercury). By the end of the month the distance is 19 degrees which is within supportive range.

(2) Venus in the eastern sky in Magha, Purva Phalguni till the end of the month.

This begins on 15^th September. This is supportive of rainfall. The increasing distance with Mercury (previous feature) is offset by this transit of Venus.

(3) Combustion of Mercury.

Mercury comes out of combustion on September 4^th and re-enters combustion on September 22^nd.  These two dates trigger rainfall. This can be split into 2 periods. (1) 19^th August – 4^th September and (2) 22^nd September – 31^st October. Usually combustion periods see rainfall.

The stars transited by Mercury during these two periods cover Central India and North Interior Peninsular India. The 2^nd part starting on 22^nd September covers entire South India including Kerala. Kerala, so far a deficit State in the current period of monsoon, is likely to get good rainfall after 22^nd September that would continue for a month. I am saying this based on past records of good rainfall during combust period of Mercury (applicable to Venus as well).

(4) Mars in Leo, behind the Sun and conjunct with benefics in the rainy season.

From 15^th September onwards Mars is going to be joined with Venus and Mercury, the two benefic planets. At that time Mars will be behind the Sun. This combination occurring in Leo in the rainy season ensures good rainfall. This continues till 27^th September when Mercury leaves the combination.

Rainfall spoiling features.

 (1) All planets behind Saturn from 17^th September. This will cause dry conditions.

Inference:-

No planets are present in any spoiling star in the Sapta Nadi chakra.

With 4 features in support of rainfall and only one as a spoiler, September is likely to see good rainfall. The following table is prepared on the basis of planetary conditions and applicable to India as a whole.

	Date	Astrological features	Event	Location	Spoilers, if any
1	Sep 1	Mercury nearing Mars within 1 degree	Rainfall	East and South east India
2	Sep 2-4	Mercury- Mars conjunction. Mercury crosses Mars from behind.	Rainfall	East and South east India
3	Sep 2-4	Moon in Amirtha Nadi & conjunct with Ketu & in opposition to Venus+Rahu in watery sign.	Rainfall	North west India
4	Sep 4	Mercury comes out of combustion.	Spurt in rainfall	East, Central east India.
5	Sep 12- 16	Venus – Rahu conjunction in watery sign.	Rainfall	Central India, South East and east Peninsular India.
6	Sep 14	Mercury – Venus closest to each other at a distance of 10 degrees. Venus crosses Rahu (Some meteorological event possible)	Heavy rainfall	Central India, South East and Peninsular India
7	Sep 15	Venus enters next sign (Leo). Venus in eastern sky in star Magha. Mars+ benefics in Leo (Mer & Ven) Moon in watery sign and watery Navamsa. (Some meteorological event possible)	Heavy rainfall	Central India, South East and Peninsular India
8	Sep 16-17	Sun enters next sign  and comes in alternate sign to Saturn + all the above mentioned in Point 7.	Heavy rainfall	Central India, South, South East and Peninsular India	All planets behind Saturn
9	Sep 14 - 17	Mercury in conjunction with Mars. + In Leo, with Venus in conjunction	Rainfall	Central India, North Interior Peninsula, East and West coastal Peninsula.	”
10	Sep 22	Mercury begins combustion	Spurt in rainfall.	South India including Tamilnadu	”
11	Sep 22 – Sep 30	Mercury continues combustion period	Rainfall	South India covering Kerala and Tamilnadu & Cauvery basin	”
12.	Sep 26-27	Mercury enters next sign to join Sun	Spurt in Rainfall	South India covering Kerala and Tamilnadu & Cauvery basin	”
13.	Sep 29-30	Moon in Amirtha nadi + Joins Ketu.	Rainfall	North West India	”

Inference:- Overall the planetary combinations are conducive for widespread and regular rainfall in the region starting from Vindhyas in Central India up to southern end of Peninsular India. The main features I am banking on are (1) the transit of Venus in the eastern sky in Magha and Purva Phalguni, (2) the closeness between Venus and Mercury and the (3) a repeat combust period of Mercury.

These rare features of rainfall are (1) transit of Venus in Magha, Purva Phalguni in the eastern pre-dawn sky and (2) Mars in Leo behind the Sun but along with benefics.

If this month finds good rainfall as written in the table above, I will attribute it to these two features. With these transits happening in Magha and Purva phalguni, all the regions in and around Vindhya range and the regions to the south of it are indicated as beneficiaries.

Rainfall scenario for Chennai.

Interestingly, the Garbottam chart for September for Chennai is bleak with just 2-4 days of rainfall between 12^th  and 15^th September.  But corroboratory indications from Margazhi Garbottam support rainfall on many days in September. Following was the relevant part of the table of Margazhi Garbottam for Chennai posted by me on Jan 12, 2017

The dates in this table are not supported by daily Garbottam that I watched (in the corresponding period in March-April). But this table corresponds with planetary table (above).

Putting them together, it is inferred that night time Garbottam would cause rainfall in the indicated period of the above two tables. What I watched was the conditions during day time. There is no way to watch the Garbottam that occurred at night. Night time Garbottam gives rainfall during the day time. Last month, it rained during the day time (late afternoon) on many days which did not show up as Garbottam in my chart. So it is understood that Garbottam clouds were present at corresponding dates at night time.

So it is inferred that day time or twilight time rainfall is likely to occur on more days of September for Chennai.  Almost all dates in the planetary chart displayed above pertain to South India and South East India that pertain to Tamilnadu. Daytime rainfall is likely on most of these days in and around Chennai except 4 days from 12^th to 15^th September when night time rainfall can be expected. Overall, September is going to be wet for Tamilnadu and Chennai.