Garbhottam: Ancient Rainfall Prediction Method ( MY paper published in the IKS)

"Garbhottam," is a traditional Indian system that uses planetary positions, lunar phases, and specific astronomical alignments to forecast monsoon patterns and rainfall intensity. It's a fascinating blend of ancient wisdom and celestial observations, offering insights into how historical astrological principles were applied to a vital natural phenomenon. 

In this paper on Garbhottam, I have incorporated scientific interpretation to enhance its acceptability and suitability. This paper was sent for a volume of the IKS where it was peer-reviewed and approved for publication. The paper can be read in the following IKS Book edited by Dr. Seema Kohli.

The paper is reproduced below:

Title: Garbhottam: Ancient Rainfall Prediction Method

Abstract

India, an agrarian economy reliant on seasonal rainfall, has traditionally employed indigenous methods to predict rainfall and to plan agricultural operations. One such age-old prediction model is “Garbhottam,” which is still referenced in Tamil Almanacs today. Despite frequent references, the core principles of “Garbhottam” remain largely unexplained. Translating to “nature of pregnancy,” this ancient concept likens cloud formation to conception, occurring during specific months, with successful conception yielding rainfall in the subsequent season. Unfortunately, individuals familiar with Garbhottam are scarce, and it is mainly the older generation who possess fleeting awareness of this concept, garnered from observing their elders. Given the alarming erosion of knowledge surrounding this method, a comprehensive study was conducted to compile and analyze all available textual references. Additionally, personal observations were recorded over a nine-year period to validate the findings. This paper presents distilled knowledge gleaned from ancient texts corroborated by extensive personal observations.

Key words: rainfall, pregnancy of clouds, garbottam, Brihat Saṃhitā, Praśna Mārga, monsoon, Pūrvaśādha, Pāvai Nonbu.

Introduction

The concept of Garbhottam has its earliest recorded references in two ancient Indian sources: Valmiki Ramayana and a verse from the Aśvamedha yajna. In Ramayana, Lord Rama vividly describes the rainy season phenomenon by likening the clouds to being ‘pregnant’, illustrating the idea of Garbhottam.

nava māsa dhṛtam garbham bhāskārasya gabhastibhiḥ |

pītvā rasam samudrāṇām dyauḥ prasūte rasāyanam || (Valmiki Ramayana: 4-28-3)

This verse translates to: “The sky, having borne the water absorbed by the Sun's rays from the oceans for nine months, delivers water, the essence of all juices.”¹

Spoken by Rama in the Bhādrapada month, this reference suggests that the nine-month gestation period for rainfall commenced in the Pushya month. Rama’s mention of the Sun (Bhāskara) sucking water from the oceans indicates that the Sun, having a crucial role in rainfall, was likely positioned in either Sagittarius (Dhanus) or Capricorn (Makara) at the time of conception.

In essence, the ancient Indians perceived the water cycle as a process where the sky became “pregnant” with water, nurturing it for nine months before delivering it as rainfall, much like a human foetus develops in the womb. Remarkably, the concept of ‘Nava māsa garbha’ has been retained in the Tamil lexicon as Garbhottam.

Garbhottam concept is rooted in the idea that rainfall is predictable. This notion is highlighted in the Aśvamedha yajna ritualistic dialogue, where the question “Who is called Pūrvachitti (पूर्वचित्ति)?” is answered with: “The forthcoming rain is called Pūrvachitti.”  Rainfall can be predicted in advance because the conditions that lead to its formation occur well beforehand, allowing for forecasting of whether it will rain. Reaffirming this, Varāhamihira says in Brihat Saṃhitā (Ch 21- 3,4),²

"The predictions of an astronomer who pays exclusive attention, both day and night to the indications of rain afforded by pregnant clouds, will as little fail of success as the words of rishis.

What science can probably excel, in interest, the science relating to the prediction of rain, by a thorough study of which one though ignorant in other matters passes for a great astrologer in this Kaliyuga."

Varāhamihira credits renowned Rishi-s for their significant contributions to predicting rainfall. Their insightful views on the long-range prediction of rainfall are extensively discussed in eight chapters of Varāhamihira’s Brihat Saṃhitā.²

A careful reading of these chapters reveals a remarkable depth of detail, including predictions about the timing, duration, location, extent, quantity, and quality of rainfall, all of which can be detected as early as six months prior to the onset of rains.

Interestingly, the Brihat Saṃhitā describes a concept of pregnancy that yields rainfall in six and a half months, or precisely, on the 195^th day. In contrast, the Garbhottam method used in Tamil lands refers to a pregnancy duration coinciding with the Sun’s transit in a specific star, providing valuable insights into the rainfall scenario for the entire season, covering both the Southwest and the Northeast monsoon periods.

Thus, two distinct concepts emerge: one yielding rainfall on the 195^th day, and another spanning a longer duration of six months. It is likely that Rama’s observations, as mentioned earlier, are based on the second concept. This study provides an in-depth explanation of both concepts, offering a comprehensive understanding of traditional Indian methods for predicting rainfall.

Data sources

According to Varāhamihira, the Vedic sages Garga, Parāśara, Kaśyapa, and Vatsa contributed significantly to the literature on Garbhottam and other rainfall prediction methods.

Key texts for reference

Brihat Saṃhitā² (Chapters 21-28)

Praśna Mārga ³ (Chapter 25)

Prerequisites for Garbhottam observation

To practice Garbhottam, one requires:

Ø  Knowledge of the Solar and Lunar months, dates (tithi), and 27 stars of Vedic astrology.

Ø  Astrology software or an almanac to track the transit of the Sun and the Moon through stars.

Ø  Round-the-clock observation of the sky with the naked eye or regular interval observations.

Commencement of observation

The information presented in the Brihat Saṃhitā (Chapters 21-28) and Praśna Mārga (Chapter 25) has been compiled and synthesized to provide a thorough and integrated understanding of the Garbhottam concept.

There are three dates mentioned for beginning Garbhottam observation:

Ø  Siddhasena school: The first day of the bright half of the lunar month of Kārttika (October-November). This day is Śukla Pratipat in Kārttika, which coincides with the complete withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon in North India and the ongoing Northeast Monsoon in South India.

Ø  Sage Garga: The day the Moon transits Pūrvāśādha in the bright half of Mārgashira (November-December). This is Śukla Pratipat of Mārgashira, which coincides with the complete withdrawal of the Northeast Monsoon in South India.

Ø  The day the Sun enters the star Pūrvaśādha.

Of the three schools of thought, the first school, proposed by Siddhasena, is indicative of the onset of the monsoon in late May or early June. The second and third schools correspond to the monsoon’s spread across India by mid-June, with the third school specifically referencing the Garbhottam observation period. Both the second and third schools emphasize the importance of the star Pūrvāśādha, which spans 13°20’ in the sign Sagittarius. As the Sun moves at approximately 1° per day, it takes approximately 13 days and 6 hours to cross Pūrvāśādha, marking this period as ‘Conception time’ or Garbhottam.

Types of Garbhottam observation

There are two primary types of Garbhottam observation:

1. Daily Garbhottam

This observation is made every day,

Ø  from the lunar month of Kārttika to Śrāvaṇa (general)

Ø  from the solar month of Kārttika to Rishabha (West coast of India)

Ø  from the solar month of Dhanus to Mithuna (East coast of India, where the Northeast Monsoon is expected).

2. Mārgashira or Solar Garbhottam

The Mārgashira Garbottam observation is conducted throughout the Sun's transit in the star Pūrvāśādha within the solar month of Mārgashira (Dhanus). This brief 13–14-day observation period, listed in the Pancānga, provides valuable insights into the rainfall scenario for the entire season from June to December. The significance of this observation lies in the association of Pūrvāśādha with Āpas, the Vedic deity governing the water on Earth. The conjunction of the Sun and Pūrvāśādha is believed to facilitate the ‘pregnancy’ of clouds, ultimately influencing the forthcoming rainfall season.

Localized observation

Notably, the observations were specific to the observer’s location. In ancient times, every village had astrologers and even the common people who made these observations. Unlike modern meteorology, which provides forecasts for vast regions, the ancient Indian method offers localized predictions that indicate whether a specific area receives rainfall on a particular day. To make accurate predictions, the observer must be present at a location from Mārgashira (Dhanus) to Phālguna (Mīna).

Rainfall realisation period

The two methods, Daily Garbhottam and Mārgashira Garbhottam (hereafter referred to as Solar Garbhottam), yield different rainfall prediction dates. Daily Garbhottam forecasts rainfall on the 195^th day following observation, whereas Solar Garbhottam, observed over 13-14 days during the Sun's transit in Pūrvāśādha, provides rainfall predictions for six months from mid-June to mid-December.

Daily Garbhottam: To determine rainfall timing, it is essential to consider the Moon’s phase (waxing or waning), the day’s tithi, and the solar month. In the Daily Garbhottam model, when favourable features are observed, the observer must note the solar month, the lunar phase, tithi, and time of day or night. Rainfall will occur six and a half months later as per this model.

Ø  If observed during waning tithi, rainfall will occur in the same tithi during the waxing phase.

Ø  If observed during the day, rainfall will occur at night and vice versa.

Ø  If features are noticed in the east, rain clouds will come from the west and vice versa.

Ø  If features are noticed at morning twilight, rainfall will occur at evening twilight.

For example, if a Garbhottam feature is noticed at noon when Pancamī tithi is present in the waxing phase of Dhanus (Sun in Sagittarius), rainfall will occur at midnight on the Pancamī tithi of waning phase in Mithuna māsa (Sun in Gemini).  While the six-and-a-half-month duration is generally guided by phase and tithi, observations have shown that this may not always correspond to the exact 195^th day. In such cases, the 195^th day takes precedence. The 195^th day correlation signifies that the Earth will be 180 °away from the Garbhottam observation point. The observed Garbhottam features manifest as rainfall when the Earth reaches the opposite location in the ecliptic. Figure 1 illustrates this phenomenon, showing three Garbhottam features observed during daytime on Day-1, which materialized as rainfall at night on the 195^th day.

Figure 1: Daily Garbhottam yielding result on the 195^th day.

Picture credit: Self

As Garbhottam features were observed during the day, rainfall occurred at night. Additionally, the direction of the features, such as lightning, clouds, and wind, which were observed from the east on Day-1, originated from the west on the 195^th day.

Solar Garbhottam: During Solar Garbhottam, each day of observation of the Sun’s transit in Pūrvāśādha corresponds to a specific fortnight (Table 1), starting from the time the Sun enters the star Ārudra in the month of Rishabha which corresponds to the month of June.

Day of Garbhottam	Degree of Pūrvāśādha	Rainfall period: Sun’s transit in	Approximate date
Day-1	1st degree	Ārudra	21st June to 5th July
Day-2	2nd degree	Punarvasu	5th July to 19th July
Day-3	3rd degree	Pushya	19th July to 2nd August
Day-4	4th degree	Aslesha	2nd August to 16th August
Day-5	5th degree	Maghā	16th August to 30th August
Day-6	6th degree	Purva Phalgunī	30th August to 13th September
Day-7	7th degree	Uttara Phalgunī	13th September to 26th September
Day-8	8th degree	Hasta	26th September to 10th October
Day-9	9th degree	Citra	10th October to 23rd October
Day-10	10th degree	Svāti	23rd October to 6th November
Day-11	11th degree	Vishakhā	6th November to 19th November
Day-12	12th degree	Anurādhā	19th November to 2nd December
Day-13	13th degree	Jyeshthā	2nd December to 15th December
Day-14	20 minutes	Mūla	15th December to 21st December

Table 1: Rainfall dates for Solar Garbhottam

Garbhottam features appear intermittently for a few minutes or hours within a day. Notably, every 2-hour duration on the observation day corresponds to one day in the rainfall realization period. In the Solar Garbhottam method, the beginning and end times of the Sun's transit in Pūrvāśādha can be obtained from the Pancānga or from an astrology simulator. To determine rainfall dates, each 2-hour duration from the starting time must be connected to a day in the rainfall period, beginning when the Sun enters Ārudra.

This method has demonstrated remarkable accuracy, successfully predicting rainfall with a 90% success rate over nine years of observation. Given its high efficacy, it is clear why the Garbhottam period was mentioned in the Pancānga-s to this day.

Identifying the Garbhottam day in the Ramayana

The table provides insight into when Rama extolled the rainy season in Kishkindha Kanda. Rama’s specific mention of Sāma gāna in Prauṣṭhapada month (Bhādrapada) indicates that he was referring to Sāma Upākarma, a ritual that occurs on the day of the star Hasta in Bhādrapada in Simha māsa (Valmiki Ramayana: 3-28-54)¹. This period falls between 16^th August and 15^th September, which correspond to day 5 and 6 of Solar Garbhottam in Mārgashira / Dhanus. (The connection between the dates remains the same in sidereal calendar of the Vedic society though the Gregorian date would be different in Rama’s period).

These two days occur when the Sun is transiting the 5^th or the 6^th degree of Pūrvāśādha. This means that sun would be in the 19^th or 20^th degree of Sagittarius. Interestingly, this Garbhottam period is explained in the 16^th sarga of Aranya Kanda when Rama, Sita and Lakshmana were going to the River Godavari at pre-dawn to take bath in the preceding Hemanta ritu. In that walk, Lakshmana was describing every aspect of the Garbhottam feature, including fog that rendered the Pushya constellation invisible after sunset. The fog eventually cleared, but the chilly weather persisted for three Yāma-s, until the trio awoke and headed to the river.

nivṛtta ākāśa śayanāḥ puṣyanītā himāruṇāḥ|

śītā vṛddhatarāyāmās triyāmā yānti sāmpratam|| (3-16-12)¹

This verse looks complex but discernible only when one knows the Garbhottam indicators ingrained within. In the month of Dhanus, when the Sun rises in the 19^th or 20^th degree in Sagittarius, it will set in Punarvasu. About an hour after sunset, Pushya will rise. By then early fog covered the sky that it appeared as though Pushya was sleeping. When the fog cleared, the climate turned very cold and lasted for three Yāma-s (1 Yāma = 2 hours and 24 minutes. Figure 2 depicts this description by Lakshmana.

Figure 2: Garbhottam explained in Ramayana

Picture credit: Self

The remarkable features of Solar Garbhottam resulted in heavy rainfall in the corresponding month of Bhādrapada which was the nineth month, registered as ‘nava māsa garbha’ by Rama (4-28-3)¹.

Basic factors to observe for rainfall prediction

The following factors were observed during the Garbhottam period (both types) to predict rainfall: (1) clouds, (2) wind, (3) drizzle, (4) lightning, and (5) thunder.

Cloud: This was the most important feature of Garbhottam. Modern science focuses on cloud formation for the arrival of rainfall. However, ancient Rishis were looking at the clouds well in advance, say, six and a half months before the arrival of the rainfall! According to them, there are two types of cloud formation found in two different seasons. One was found over four months from Mārgashira to Phālguna. The other was noticed during monsoon rains. The former type is crucial for good rainfall later.

A cloudless sky on the Garbhottam day indicates a dry climate on the 195^th day (Daily Garbhottam) and a dry fortnight if the observation day falls within the Solar Garbhottam period. Particularly in the month of Dhanus, when the Sun crosses Pūrvāśādha, the sky must be filled with clouds. Clouds must have distinct characteristics.

1.     Halo around clouds:

During the months from Mārgashira to Phālguna, the presence of a halo around clouds is a crucial observational feature. It indicates:

Ø  A certain level of heating of the Earth's surface

Ø  Adequate precipitation for cloud formation

Ø  Effective heat deflection by clouds

Ø  Heat retention due to cloud cover

A consistent and optimal presence of these features during the aforementioned months sets the stage for conducive rainfall conditions right from the onset of the Southwest Monsoon (SWM).

2.     Appearance of the cloud:

Another crucial feature is the appearance of the clouds. Specifically:

Ø  Around noon, large and bulky clouds must cross the Sun's disk.

Ø  These clouds should appear dark underneath, as viewed by the observer.

Bunches of clouds will be seen speedily crossing the sky during these months. They appear dark underneath and cross the sun frequently. While crossing the sun, a bright halo must be observed on the outline of the clouds, as shown in the photograph in Figure 3.

Figure 3: Bunch of clouds hiding the sun at noon

Photo credit: Self

Many such bundles of clouds crossing the sun, particularly at noon, are indicative of good Garbhottam. The dark underside of clouds observed around noon is related to the longitudinal thickness of the clouds. When clouds are sufficiently thick: (1) The Sun rays are unable to penetrate the central portion of the cloud. (2) The rays are deflected, creating a glowing outline around the cloud. (3) The cloud appears dark for the observer.

3.     Colour of the cloud

The clouds observed during this period should have a distinctive colour:

Ø  They should appear pearl-like or silver in hue.

Ø  A dull white colour, rather than a bright milk-white tone, is indicative of favourable conditions.

4.     Shape of the cloud

The shape of the clouds is also an important factor:

Clouds that resemble aquatic animals such as swans, crocodiles, fish and Turtles (Figure 4) are considered favourable.  Mountain-like, castle-like, and non-aquatic animal shapes are not indicative of favourable conditions, as they are typically associated with the rainy season.

Figure 4: Turtle-like cloud during Garbhottam period

Photo credit: Self

At times, clouds may appear, as shown in Figure 5, which is not indicative of Garbhottam. The clouds are small, thin, and not high enough in the sky to cross the sun.

Figure 5: Clouds indicative of absence of Garbhottam

Photo credit: Self

Unveiling the science behind ancient observations

The unique cloud formations in Garbhottam can be explained by scientific principles. A recent NASA publication highlights the crucial role of low-level clouds in shaping our climate.⁴   The illustration in Figure 6 from NASA publication demonstrates that “low-level cloud reflects a significant portion of the Sun’s incoming radiation but had little impact on Earth’s outgoing thermal radiation. Overall, low clouds tended to contribute to cooling the planet.”

Figure 6: Low-level clouds reflect solar radiation back into space, thereby cooling the Earth

Picture Credit: Figure 5a in citation 4

The four months starting from Mārgashira are supposed to be sufficiently cool, with low-level clouds hanging around which ensure good monsoon later. The NASA publication further stated the effects of high-altitude clouds (Figure 7). They allow solar radiation to reach the ground, making the Earth warmer.

Figure 7: High-altitude clouds allow heat radiation

Picture credit: Figure 5b in citation 4

The contrast between high and low clouds has profound implications in astrometeorology. According to the NASA publication, high clouds, such as Cirrus clouds, contribute to planetary warming⁴. If high clouds are present during the four-month observation period (Mārgashira to Phālguna), it can lead to excessive daytime heating and increased nighttime cooling. These conditions are detrimental to a healthy monsoon season. Notably, our ancestors recognized these patterns long ago, and modern science is only now validating these observations.

Wind: The Solar Garbhottam period is marked by gentle and cool winds. In particular, this can be observed when the sun is hidden by clouds. The wind direction indicates the direction from which rain-carrying clouds appear on the rainfall date. If the wind blows from the east, the wind and clouds will be from the west on the rainfall realization date. The nature of wind determines the nature of rainfall.

Ø  Gentle and agreeable wind: Favourable for good rainfall.

Ø  Cool breeze from North and Northeast: Indicates good rainfall prospects.

Ø  Heavy winds: Although rain clouds may gather, heavy winds can shatter them, reducing rainfall chances.

Ø  Dust Storm: Typically associated with dry conditions, making rainfall unlikely.

Occasionally, the winds shatter the clouds, as shown in Figure 8. In particular, when a bunch of clouds crosses the sun at noon, it may fizzle out, making the sun appear dim. This indicates the failure of Garbhottam.

                              

Figure 8: Shattered clouds

Photo credit: Self

Another formation of clouds that gets shattered as it crosses the sun is shown in Figure 9. The sun becoming visible through the cloud is not a Garbhottam feature.

Figure 9: Shattered cloud formation

Photo credit: Self

Drizzle: Good cloud formation accompanied by gentle winds is a fundamental characteristic of Garbhottam, which is essential for predicting sufficient rainfall. Furthermore, if the Garbhottam period is marked by a light drizzle, the anticipated rainfall amount is significantly amplified. In contrast, rainfall on the Garbhottam day spoils the rainfall later.

Ø  Heavy rainfall: Negatively impacts rainfall on the corresponding day later.

Ø  Gentle rain or drizzle in Mārgashira or any day: A favourable indicator for good rainfall on the corresponding day later.

Lightning: At times, clouds may gather, suggesting impending rainfall, and lightning may even appear, which can be a promising Garbhottam feature but only if it does not actually rain.

Ø  Lightning: good rainfall

Ø  Rainbow in the morning or evening: good rainfall

Thunder: The roar of thunder is another favourable indicator of Garbhottam, if it is not accompanied by heavy rainfall. However, light rain or drizzles that merely wet the ground are considered beneficial Garbhottam features.

Ø  Low, rumbling roar of thunder: good rainfall.

Ø  Heavy sounding thunder: rain clouds would shatter away.

A combination of all five features - clouds, gentle winds, light drizzles, lightning, and thunder - on a single day is considered a first-rate Garbhottam, indicating a high likelihood of heavy to very heavy rainfall in the observed location. In practical observations, even the presence of just three key features - clouds, gentle winds, and light drizzles–has been sufficient to predict bountiful rainfall on the designated day. Similarly, overcast skies are found to provide rainfall on the corresponding dates.

Role of fog

Solar Garbhottam days are notably characterized by foggy mornings across various parts of India, particularly in the Himalayan States and Delhi. Fog is regarded as a premium Garbhottam feature often associated with intense cloud bursts. While morning fog in South India typically indicates favourable rainfall later, the dense fog prevalent in the Himalayan region has been linked to the devastating rainfall caused by cloud bursts. Interestingly, studies have revealed that the dates of rainfall align with the 195^th day concept of Daily Garbhottam, underscoring the method’s predictive accuracy.

For example, in January 2024, many places in North India including Delhi experienced more than a month of dense fog. The fog condition on 16^th January is shown in Figure 10. The 195^th day for this date was on 28^th July 2024. Delhi received the highest rainfall on a single day (108 mm) in 14 years on 31^st July 2024⁵.

Most of the North Indian States shown under fog in Figure 10 recorded above normal rainfall in July and August 2024. Himachal Pradesh was heavily affected by cloudbursts and flash floods since 25^th July, which caused heavy damage to 14 hydroelectric projects⁶. Heavy fog that reduces visibility to 0 metre as happened in Delhi⁷ will cause incessant rains or cloudburst on or around the 195^th day from then. It can be noticed that several days of dense fog will be associated with cloud bursts and torrential rains six and a half months later.

Figure 10: Dense fog in North India

Picture credit: https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/delhi-weather-today-thick-fog-coldwave-conditions-minimum-temperature-imd-warning-2489128-2024-01-16

Triple observation method

The Garbhottam observation occurs at three levels of Nature. They are

I. Terrestrial factors

II. Atmospheric conditions

III. Planetary influences

Terrestrial indicators: Observing Garbhottam involves observing the harmony of nature. The following signs on land indicate a positive trend.

Ø  Sweet, cheerful chirpings of birds.

Ø  Animals moving freely, relaxed, and making pleasant sounds.

Ø  Kids playing happily and making sweet sounds.

Ø  Trees sprouting new growth, and trees growing healthily without diseases.

Garbhottam nature of Pāvai Nonbu in Mārgashira

In ancient Tamil lands, a unique cultural activity called the Pāvai Nonbu was an integral part of the Mārgashira month. This tradition involved young girls, aged 5-9, creating dolls from river sand, accompanied by playful shouts and laughter. The renowned Tamil poetess and saint, Śrī Āṇḍāḷ, composed 30 verses for the 30 days of the month of Dhanus, with the first 15 verses inviting girls to join her in Pāvai Nonbu. This ancient practice was also documented in Tamil Sangam literature, specifically in the Paripādal (verse 11).

The connection to Garbhottam

The energetic and playful atmosphere created by the children’s activities during the pre-dawn hours of Mārgashira seemed to have a subtle warming effect on the environment. This cultural practice, which involved playing in the cold river water and creating sand dolls, appears to be in harmony with the terrestrial features necessary for a favourable Garbhottam during Mārgashira.

Pāvai Nonbu commenced on the day of the full moon in Ārudra, within the Mārgashira month, with women joining the young girls. Simultaneously, men would perform a yajna (ritual) on the riverbank, seeking timely rainfall. For the remainder of the month, only young children gathered at the riverside, engaging in this joyful and culturally significant activity.

The terrestrial effect of Garbhottam on this cultural activity particularly in Mārgashira has been lost over time. However, this has been compensated for by pre-dawn prayers at many temples, including the temples of Lord Ayyappa, which require men and children to take baths in cold water and visit temples barefoot in pre-dawn hours. The combination of cultural and spiritual activities seems to have been devised by ancient seers with an intention to aid in Garbhottam.

Atmospheric indicators: Observing the skies

The following atmospheric features are considered significant:

Ø  Clouds with a pearl or silver sheen.

Ø  Huge, dense clouds resembling aquatic animals.

Ø  Clouds illuminated by bright sunlight.

Ø  Soft, gentle wind (presence of 3 and 4 together indicates torrential rain on the 195^th day).

Ø  The Sun and Moon are encircled by glossy, bright, thick halos.

Ø  Skies filled with bulky clouds, smooth needle-like clouds (cirrus), or clouds shaped like swords.

Ø  Clouds with a reddish or bluish tint.

Ø  Enjoyable morning and evening twilights.

Ø  Gentle, rumbling thunder.

Ø  Rainbows appearing on the lower horizon.

Ø  A reddish glow on the horizon at dawn and sunset (specific to the Mārgashira and Puṣya months).

Ø  Clouds surrounded by halos.

Month-wise observations for predicting rainfall

The following atmospheric features are observed during specific months to predict rainfall:

Mārgashira (November-December)

Ø  Reddish hue of the sun during morning and evening (Figure 11)

Ø  Sky appears red before sunrise and after sunset

Ø  Clouds surrounded by halos

Ø  Extremely cold temperatures

 

Figure 11: Reddish Sun at sunset

Photo credit: Self

Puṣya (December-January)

Ø  Reddish hue of the sun during morning and evening

Ø  Clouds surrounded by halos

Ø  Excessive snowfall

Māgha (January-February)

Ø  Strong winds

Ø  Sun and moon obscured by clouds or snowfall during sunrise and sunset

Ø  Fog, mist, and extreme cold

Phālguna (February-March)

Ø  Violent storms

Ø  Tawny colour of the sun

Ø  Broken or imperfect halos around the sun and moon

Ø  Glossy clouds moving across the sky

These observations during Mārgashira to Phālguna ensure a good ‘conception of rainfall’.

Caitra and Vaiśākha (March-April to April-May)

During these months, the sky marked by winds, clouds, and halos indicates a conception of rainfall, which will occur on the 195^th day afterwards.

Adverse features affecting rainfall conception (Mārgashira to Phālguna)

The following atmospheric phenomena, observed during the four months from Mārgashira to Phālguna, can disrupt or spoil the conception of rainfall:

Ø  Meteor showers.

Ø  Thunderbolts.

Ø  Dust storms.

Ø  City-like formations of clouds.

Ø  Atmospheric anomalies such as unusual sky colours, clouds, sunrise, and sunset.

Ø  Rainfall occurring during these four months.

Ø  Appearance of comets.

Ø  Eclipses.

Ø  Sunspots.

Planetary factors influencing rainfall conception (Mārgashira to Phālguna)

Favourable planetary indicators

Ø  Bright and clear planetary discs: Planets appear with clear and bright discs at night.

Ø  Northern declinations: Planets moving in northern declinations.

Ø  Luminous moon and stars: The Moon and stars appearing white and radiant.

Adverse planetary indicators

Ø  Eclipses occurring during this period

Ø  Planetary war: Planets in close proximity, with one planet crossing another.

Lunar influence on rainfall

During Mārgashira to Phālguna, when the Moon is in specific stars and the three favourable features align, rainfall is predicted.

Abundant rainfall on the 195^th day: Pūrvāśādha, Uttarāshāḍha, Purva Bhādrapada, Uttara Bhādrapada, and Rohiṇī.

Prolonged rainfall: Ārudra, Aslesha, Maghā, Svātī, and Śatabhiṣak.

Adverse consequences

Conversely, if the three favourable features of conception are marred, dryness prevails.

Case study: The cyclone ‘Gaja’

To crosscheck the method of Garbhottam, satellite images were checked for some cyclones. The initial Garbhottam dates were checked for cloud movement by counting 195 days backward from the cyclone dates. In Figure 12, the images of the cyclone named ‘Gaja’ are shown along with the images on the corresponding Garbhottam days. The Garbhottam dates were marked as input and Cyclone dates as outputs.

Figure 12: Garbhottam (Input) and Rainfall (output) images of Gaja cyclone

Satellite picture credit: Balaji Thirugnanasambandam, student of IIT-M

On 8^th May, a huge mass of clouds entered Peninsular India in the southwest direction. The Gaja cyclone entered Peninsular India from Northeast approximately 195 days after that. A few more cyclones were observed in the satellite maps, and the results were encouraging.

Conclusion

The traditional method of Garbhottam, which relies on round-the-clock personal observations, has shown promising results, and its accuracy can be further enhanced by integrating it with modern meteorological methods. With the advent of satellite imaging, the analysis of cyclones and low-level clouds can be conducted more efficiently and accurately, providing a valuable supplement to personal observations. A nine-year study based on personal observations has demonstrated the potential of Garbhottam in enhancing rainfall prediction accuracy, and its combination with modern technology and astrological principles can lead to better forecasting and decision-making.

References

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2. Iyer, N.C. (Trans). (1987). The Brihat Saṃhitā. Sri Satguru Publications. Delhi.

3. Raman, B.V. (Trans). (1992). Praśna Mārga. Part-II. Motilal Banarsidass Publishers Pvt. Ltd. Delhi.

4. NASA. The Importance of Understanding Clouds. NASA. Retrieved from https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/135641main_clouds_trifold21.pdf?emrc=168c07

5. News Report. India Today. Delhi gets 108 mm rain in 24 hours, highest in a single day in July in 14 years. Retrieved from https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/delhi-rain-record-highest-single-day-july-2574837-2024-08-01  Last updated: Aug 1, 2024.

6. News Report. The Economic Times. 14 hydropower projects damaged due to flash floods in Himachal since July 25.

Retrieved from https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/power/14-hydropower-projects-damaged-due-to-flash-floods-in-himachal-since-july-25/articleshow/112718157.cms    Last updated: Aug 22, 2024.

7. News Report. India Today. Thick fog covers Delhi as cold wave continues; nearly 50 flights, 30 trains affected. Retrieved from https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/delhi-weather-today-thick-fog-coldwave-conditions-minimum-temperature-imd-warning-2489128-2024-01-16 Last updated: Jan 16, 2024.