Rainfall Check -8 (Assessment of Solar /Margazhi Garbottam with real time rainfall)

Previous articles:-

Rainfall check - part 1  (Pre-Monsoon showers)

Rainfall check - part 2  (Cyclone Roanu in Bay of Bengal)

Rainfall check - part 3  (Late arrival of SW Monsoon)

Rainfall check - part 4  (For July 2016)

Rainfall check - part 5 (For August 2016)

Rainfall check - Part 6 (For September 2016)
Rainfall check -7 (North East Monsoon)

As we are nearing the end of NEM season, I would like to check the validity of Solar Garbottam that was done in last Margazhi between 29^th December 2015 and 11^th January 2016. This period was the time the Sun was transiting Pooradam (Purvashada) star in the solar month of Margazhi (Sagittarius). The first article in the series of observation of Garbottam in that period can be read here. All the articles on the entire 13 day period of Garbottam observation can be read here.

To give a brief on that Garbottam, traditional astrological view is that the entire period of 13 to 14 days of transit of Sun in the star Pooradam (Purvashada) in the month of Margazhi (Margashira) gives clues on the behaviour of rainfall prospects for the entire period of the next rainfall season starting from June and ending in December. Five features related to the atmosphere is observed on these days continuously with (roughly) each two hours corresponding to one day starting from the date when the Sun enters Arudra star in the opposite side of the zodiac six and a half months after this observation is done. The five features are nature of the wind, rainfall or drizzle, lightening, sound of thunder and nature & shape of clouds.

While this observation is being done at atmospheric level, behaviour of terrestrial animals and planetary positions are also observed simultaneously to arrive at a conclusion whether “pregnancy” of clouds or “fetal formation of clouds’ had taken place. The basic idea is that there is a gestation period for rainfall fructification. Since the initial formation or seeding is involved followed by a gestation period, the initial seeding / information is compared to pregnancy and hence the name Garbottam – checking the nature of Garbha. Garbottam is a Tamil word.

To put it more clearly, if there is rainfall on a particular day, the meteorological features that gave rise to that rainfall have had their first development 195 days prior to that. In other words, the meteorological conditions that prevailed on a day would give its effect on the 195^th day when earth would be exactly 180 degrees away from that day.

In the case of Sun’s transit in Pooradam star, each moment of sun’s movement gives rise to features and factors that determine the rainfall that comes for a long period of 6 to 6 and a half months starting from 6 and a half months later. That would start from the time the Sun would be 180 degrees from the dates of Margazhi Garbottam.

Though I had written about almost all the salient features of how to predict rainfall through Garbottam and other factors in a 7-part article in this link in 2013, I did a personal observation of these features only in the last season (2015-2016 Margazhi) after Chennai was devastated by floods. It was on an interaction with Mr Srikanth of Chennai rains dot com that I started this analysis seriously while simultaneously learning about basic scientific ideas of rainfall prediction and doing astrological checking of rainfall data of the past years. Though day-today observation that corresponds to rainfall on the 195^th day thereafter has been mostly successful as can be checked from the previous parts in this series, the reliability / success rate of Margazhi Garbottam remains to be analysed.

This analysis is all the more important as this gives an overall picture of both SWM and NEM season for India. A concise analysis of this Garbottam done in last Margazhi with the reality check of the rainfall in the present year (since June) in Chennai is given below. As the observation was done from a place in South Chennai, what is given here pertains to realisation of rainfall in that part of Chennai where the observation was made. (The theory of Garbottam requires visual observation to be done in every place to assess the realisation of rainfall in that place).

Day	Date of Garbottam	Observation  & Prediction	Date of Impact (Fortnight)	Actual impact
1	29th  – 30th Dec 2015	Wind-  Weak Drizzles- Nil Lightening- Nil Thunder-Nil Clouds- Weak Prediction:- Drizzles, Scattered rainfall	21st June to 4th July 2016	Drizzles – Between 21st to 25th June. Moderate rains – Between 26th to 28th  June.
2	30th -31st Dec, 2015	Wind- Moderate in 2nd half. Drizzles- Nil Lightening- Nil Thunder-Nil Clouds- Moderate. Prediction:- Scattered rainfall, particularly in the 2nd half.	5th July to 18th July 2016	Moderate rains – On 6th &7th July. And in the last few days of the fortnight.
3	31st Dec- 1st Jan, 2016	Wind-  Satisfactory Drizzles- Nil Lightening- Nil Thunder-Nil Clouds- Good Prediction:- Generally wet throughout the fortnight especially in the 2nd half.	19th July to 1st August 2016	Moderate rains- In the beginning and the end of the fortnight.
4	1st-2nd Jan 2016	Wind- Dry and strong, Drizzles- Nil Lightening- Nil Thunder-Nil Clouds- Nil. Prediction:- Dry and windy	2nd August to 16th August 2016	Dry weather.
5	2nd-3rd Jan 2016	Wind- Hot wind at noon, still air at night Drizzles- Nil Lightening- Nil Thunder-Nil Clouds- Nil Prediction:- Dry weather.	17th August to 30th August 2016	Moderate rains in the last few days of the fortnight. (Note: daily Garbottam supported rains on those days)
6	3rd – 4th Jan, 2016	Wind- Mild breeze at twilights. Drizzles- Nil Lightening- Nil Thunder-Nil Clouds- Few aquatic clouds at noon, Prediction:- Mostly dry weather. Might drizzle here and there.	31st August to 13th September 2016.	Rained on 8th Sep.
7	4th- 5th Jan, 2016	Wind- Gentle winds Drizzles- Nil Lightening- Nil Thunder-Nil Clouds-Good and of aquatic shapes. Prediction:- Wet conditions	14th September to 26th September 2016.	Rained on 15th and 26th September 2016.
8	5th-6th Jan, 2016	Wind- Gentle breeze in 2nd half. Drizzles- Nil Lightening- Nil Thunder-Nil Clouds- Good but aquatic forms were absent. Prediction:- Good rains in last quarter.	27th September to 10th October 2016.	Rained in first quarter and last quarter too.
9	6th-7th Jan, 2016	Wind- Occasional breeze. Drizzles- Nil Lightening- Nil Thunder-Nil Clouds- Less formation. Prediction:- Mild rains in the 2nd half.	11th October to 23rd October.	Mild rains in the 2nd half.
10	7th-8th Jan, 2016	Wind- Hot wind at noon, still air at night Drizzles- Nil Lightening- Nil Thunder-Nil Clouds- Nil Prediction:- Dry weather.	24th October to 6th November.	Failure of cyclone Kyant
11	8th-9th Jan, 2016	Wind- Gentle breeze often Drizzles- Nil Lightening- Nil Thunder-Nil Clouds- Moderate in afternoon Prediction:- Isolated rains in 2nd half of the fortnight.	7th November to 19th November	Moderate rainfall in the 2nd half of fortnight.
12	9th-10th Jan, 2016	Wind- Very less Drizzles- Nil Lightening- Nil Thunder-Nil Clouds- Very less Prediction:- Isolated rains in the 2nd half of the fortnight.	20th November to 2nd December.	Dry conditions.
13	10th-11th Jan, 2016	Wind- Moderate in the first half Drizzles- Nil Lightening- Nil Thunder-Nil Clouds- Good in the afternoon Prediction:- Isolated rains in the 1st half of fortnight and good rains in the 2nd half of the fortnight.	3rd December to 15th December.	Good rains from Cyclone Vardah in the 2nd half of fortnight.

Success rate of Solar / Margazhi Garbottam.

Overall 12/13 days matched with the reality conditions in the rainfall season of 2016. The one day that did not match was the 5^th day (2^nd to 3^rd January 2016)

The 5^th day Garbottam showed absolute dry conditions, but the impact period (17^th to 30^th August 2016) saw cloudy weather in the 2^nd half of the fortnight with rainfall starting on 25^th August in my place of observation. This can be attributed to the Daily Garbottam that showed prospects for rainfall in that period.

The running star of the Garbottam day being Rohini and Arudra, it ensured rainfall.

Another reversal was noticed on the 12^th day too. While the Garbottam prediction was isolated rains in the 2^nd half of the fortnight (20^th Nov to 2^nd Dec 2016), there was no rain in the expected period.

On checking the 12th day Garbottam article, I found that the features were very less. I had in fact given the title as ‘failure’.  Gentle winds were felt around 3 PM on that day for a brief time. That was not sufficient cause for rain-giving Garbottam.  This deficient condition must be borne in mind in future while assessing the strength of the Garbottam features.

Good rainfall period.

Only 3 / 13 days of Solar Garbottam showed some scope for rainfall.  Of them the best was the 3rd day (19^th July to 1^st August 2016). Though gentle winds were less, the sky was overcast for most of the day time. No other day in that entire Garbottam period was like that.

Then the 7^th day (14^th September to 26^th September 2016) and the 13^th day (3^rd December to 15^th December 2016) also showed moderate cloud formation and gentle winds. The other days did not have good Garbottam features.

Could I have predicted the dry NEM from Solar Garbottam?

I think I had but did not make it a specific point as I was keen on checking the reliability of this data. 

Since my place of observation receives rainfall mostly from NEM, the days that cover the NEM period gain significance. The days, 9, 10, 11 and 12 of Solar Garbottam were a disaster with dry conditions.  The very titles I had given to those articles reveal that.

Day-9 of Garbottam year 2015-16 – weaker than 8th day.

Day – 10 of Garbottam 2015-16 – a case of mis-carriage!

Day – 11 of Garbottam 2015-16 - yet to pick up.

Day – 12 of Garbottam 2015-16 – a failure.

This covers the period between 10^th October 2016 to 2^nd December 2016.

Why it was dry during those 4 crucial Garbottam days?

I have an answer which I discussed in those articles.

There are 2 important spoilers of Garbottam, (1) Eclipse happening on the day of Garbottam and (2) Planetary war occurring on the day of Garbottam.

In the Solar Garbottam season of 2015 -16, a planetary war occurred between Saturn and Venus on the days mentioned above. Planetary war means one planet coming within one degree of the other. The planet which is behind the other is said to have been defeated.

From the noon of 8^th January till 7 AM on 10^th January (10^th, 11^th and 12^th days of Solar Garbottam). Venus was behind Saturn within one degree. By this Venus is said to have been defeated by Saturn. When Saturn is in front of Venus, it would cause famine like conditions. On these days of planetary defeat, the Garbottam features also looked spoiled. This started on the 10th day  afternoon when Venus entered within one degree distance of Saturn. It must be noted that the cyclone Kyant failed during the period corresponding to the 10^th day of Solar garbottam.

On the 10^th  day (8^th January 2016) the Sun was crossed by dark clouds by 1 PM

A  little later this was how the clouds looked: sort of scorched.

 By 3PM the clouds looked shattered like this and were gone.

This is mis-carriage of the foetus of clouds!

For the entire duration of this planetary defeat, the NEM had remained dry.

Interestingly, the daily Garbottam of the day when planetary war started (at noon) gave rainfall on the 195^th day (on the mid night of 18^th July).

This shows daily Garbottam does give its share of rains. The planetary war is more crucial during the Solar Garbottam days.

All the above are applicable to my place in South Chennai.

However the presence of planetary war during the period of Solar Garbottam could mar rainfall wherever the rainy season was due in India.

Overall rainfall season 2016 for India.

At the national level, planetary combinations have played a major role. From what I observed in this year, I can say with high level of confidence the following.

·       Whenever Venus and Mercury enter the next sign (during rainy season), there will be a trigger to rainfall in the places indicated by the direction of the sign occupied by the planet and in the places indicated by the star in which the planet is transiting at that moment.  There is an exception in that if these planets re-enter the next sign after regressing into the previous sign, the re-entry does not cause rainfall.

·       Whenever Mercury or Venus start combustion and come out of combustion, there will be a spurt in rainfall. The places are as indicated above.

In the above two occurrences, there is a high probability of some formation of a system to generate rainfall.

·       Closeness of Mercury- Venus gives rainfall and cause rainfall generating features. With the gap between them reducing more and more, higher chances of continuing rainfall can be seen. When the cross each other, there is a spurt in rainfall.

·       On the contrary when the gap between them starts increasing, say reaching to the extent of  40 + degrees, withdrawal of monsoon happens.

·       Sun in front of all planets of behind all planets does result in good rainfall in the places indicated by Mercury and Venus and Jupiter if it is also close to them.

·       Sapta Nadi Chakra plays a greater role in helping or spoiling the rainfall. In the year 2016, the transit of Saturn and Jupiter in Sapta Nadi stars had influenced greatly the nature and amount of rainfall.

 Sapta Nadi Chakra shows the transit of the 7 planets (grahas) in specific stars. This is an age old concept and I found that to be in complete control of the rainfall condition this year. This chakra is given below.

1	Vayu Nadi	Kri, Vishaka,  Anusha, Bharani	Saturn	Windy, No rains
2	Vayu Nadi	Ro, Swati, Jyesh, Aswini	Sun	Windy, Rains
3	Dahana Nadi	Mri, Chith, Moola, Revathy	Mars	Heat, Dry weather
4	Sowmya Nadi	Aru,  Hastha, P-shada, U-Bhadra	Mercury	Windy, Less rains
5	Nirjala Nadi	Punar, U.Phal, U-shada, P-Bhadra	Venus	Cloudy, But no rains
6	Jala Nadi	Pushya, P.Phal, Abhijit, Shatabhishak	Jupiter	Plentiful rainfall
7	Amirtha Nadi	Aslesha, Magha, Sravana, Dhanishta	Moon	Excessive rainfall

In 2016, Saturn was in Anusha (Vayu nadi) between 8^th July and 17^th September – a major period covering South West Monsoon. With this major dampener, whatever other positive features of planets were there, they were fighting and struggling to give whatever rainfall that was realised.

At the same time, Jupiter was in Jala Nadi in Purva phalguni star in forward motion from 9^th May to 24^th July. This comes in the period of beginning of SWM.

·       Opposition of malefics (Mars and Saturn) to Mercury and Venus did delay the onset of SWM, but Jupiter in Jala nadi gave most of the rainfall of the SWM season.

·       Though by August 16^th all the planets came on one side of the Sun which is a good feature for flood like situation, it did not happen in large scale due to Transit of Saturn in Vayu nadi. Only those places coming under the influence of Venus (Central India) experienced flood like situation.

·       The NEM season flopped perhaps due to planetary war during the Solar Garbottam.

·       Though a major feature of Mars, Saturn and Sun coming in alternate signs did happen from mid-November onwards, it did not give desired rainfall, as Mars was in the lead of all the planets from then onwards. This onward march of Mars continues till June 2017 which is a cause of concern. For the time being, this feature cannot give heavy rainfall even if daily Garbottam supports rainfall in a place.

·       By 29^th December 2016, Mercury- Venus closeness is over. With that NEM can be said to have ended.

 

Conclusion:

With this the rainfall check for the current year comes to an end. The next season of Solar Garbottam for 2017 season begins on 28^th December 2016 and ends on 10^th January. The above assessment of last Garbottam makes me think that it is far reliable to get general hints on the nature of both SWM and NEM season.  Having gained good insights in a year long observation and interpretation, I am planning to begin the series for the next season in an easier- to- follow way, for interested readers to do the check in their respective locations.

Related articles:

Solar Garbottam series of 2015-16

Garbottam begins at 5 PM on 29th December 2015.

Day -1 of Garbottam and Arudra Pravesham.

Day - 2 of Garbottam, year 2015-16.

Day -3 of Garbottam year 2015-16

Day – 4 of Garbottam year 2015-16 is disappointing!

Day – 5 of Garbottam year 2015-16 - disappointing for Chennai but good for SW Monsoon.

Day – 6 of Garbottam year 2015-16, Swati day.

Day – 7 of Garbottam year 2015-16 is average.

Day – 8 of Garbottam year 2015-26 – wet Navaratri.

Day-9 of Garbottam year 2015-16 – weaker than 8th day.

Day – 10 of Garbottam 2015-16 – a case of mis-carriage!

Day – 11 of Garbottam 2015-16 - yet to pick up.

Day – 12 of Garbottam 2015-16 – a failure.

Day – 13 (last day) of Garbottam 2015-16 – rains in December.