Third phase of the Crescent Moon (மூன்றாம் பிறை) and rainfall.

The 3^rd day of waxing Moon holds the clue to the nature of the monsoon in the upcoming season.  This phase of the moon is popularly known as “MoonRaam piRai” (மூன்றாம் பிறை)– the 3^rd phase of the crescent moon. People consider it to be rare to see this as it will be low in the sky and hidden by clouds in the monsoon season.  But this phase of the crescent must be somehow sighted to make sure that the tips of the crescent are in the expected positions that guarantee good monsoon and reasonable price level ( as a result of good monsoon). This also means that the path of moon and earth has to be in ideal places which ensure ideal meteorological activities for a good monsoon. 

The two tips of the crescent are in north and south directions.  The tips may be even or one tip may be higher than the other. The comparison between the tips is done on “MoonRaam piRai”. One can find a mention such as “indru pirai vada kOdu uyara mazhai subiksham” (இன்று பிறை வட கோடு உயர மழை சுபிக்ஷம்) in the daily sheet calendar. The position of a tip at a higher level than the other in certain months ensures good rainfall.

The northern tip must be higher than the southern tip for the eight months starting from the solar month of  Vaigasi / Taurus until the solar month of Margazhi / Sagittarius.
 

The two tips must be even in the next two months of Thai and Maasi. 

The Southern tip must be higher than the northern tip in the next months of  Panguni and  Chiththirai.

If the tips look different from the way stipulated above, there will be terrible famine in the land. 

This factor also must be checked and read in combination with other factors of prediction of rainfall.

For example today (12^th January 2016) is the day of 3^rd crescent (MoonRaam PiRai). The month is Margazhi. Therefore the northern tip must be higher than the southern tip. But there was slight tilt towards the southern tip and the southern tip looked slightly (very slightly) higher than the northern tip. This reduces by little the normal rainfall expected in the paksha (lunar fortnight) that comes after 195 days.

Today is waxing phase of Margazhi. The corresponding paksha after 195 days is calculated as the opposite paksha after 6 months. That will be the waning phase of Aani month.

This corresponding paksha comes between 23rd June and 6th July 2016. This happens to be the corresponding fortnight for the 1st day of Garbottam.

According to the 1^st day of Garbottam, there will be less than average rainfall in that fortnight in my place of observation in Chennai. This is confirmed by the southern tip of the crescent moon going higher today.

On the whole, if the tips are in expected positions in all the months of the year, it indicates normal rains in general.

The list of dates of 3^rd crescent in the upcoming months is given here for checking.

Thai – 11^th February 2016 – The tips must be even. - Impact period July 22nd to August 4th 2016.

Maasi – 11^th March 2016 – The tips must be even. - Impact period August 21st to September 3rd 2016

Panguni – 9^th April 2016 – The southern tip must be higher than the northern tip. - Impact period September 19th to October 3rd 2016.

Chitthirai – 9^th May 2016 - The southern tip must be higher than the northern tip. Impact period - October 18th to November 2nd 2016.

Vaikasi – 7^th June 2016 – The northern tip must be higher than the southern tip. - Impact period - November 17th to December 1st 2016.

It will be difficult to sight the crescent in the following months.
However, the tip in proper position in these months will ensure good rains in the season.

Aani – 7^th July 2016 - The northern tip must be higher than the southern tip.

Aadi -   5^th August 2016 - The northern tip must be higher than the southern tip.

AavaNi -  4^th September - The northern tip must be higher than the southern tip.

Purattasi – 4^th October - The northern tip must be higher than the southern tip.

Aippasi – 3^rd November - The northern tip must be higher than the southern tip.

Karthigai -  2^nd December - The northern tip must be higher than the southern tip.