A political blog from me after a long time!
With the 2024 Lok Sabha election nearing fast, we are getting to hear multiple interpretations on the state of things. Foremost is about the state of alliances in Tamilnadu. With EPS looking unwilling to align with the BJP, there is a common perception that it will lead to a 3-cornered contest which would work to the advantage of the ruling DMK.
This stark fact is known to the BJP as well and as such we can expect the BJP think tank at the center to create a 2-cornered contest. They won’t allow a 3-cornered contest in Tamilnadu. How this will take shape is palpable from certain quick developments seen in the recent days. These developments work in two ways – political and creation of an environment.
Politically, the game of waiting on EPS is almost over. After his return from Delhi, Annamalai has upped the ante for go-it-alone mode which means retaining the lead in the NDA alliance and not depending on the ADMK. This might send shock waves in both the ADMK and the BJP over the prospect of three or multi cornered contest, but think of the way politicians behave. Politics means life time business for most in the two Dravidian parties. They cannot exist without power or brokerage. They will sway towards the side where the winds are favorable. The early indication on the ADMK camp has become palpable recently.
OPS was a given a breathing space just a few days ago when he was given an audience with the top brass of the BJP including the Prime Minister on the sidelines of the swearing-in of the Gujarat Assembly. OPS, and not EPS was spotted in the front row of that ceremony. Is the central BJP having second thoughts on EPS? Have they decided to lend tacit support to OPS with a view to garner Thevar segments?
Imagine a scenario when OPS severs from the ADMK and forms his own faction; he will be taken into the NDA. But do you think that the whole of lot of seasoned politicians in the EPS camp would remain as dump spectators? They knew very well that they cannot win in a 3-cornered contest in 2024. The situation will be no different in 2026 too. Political acumen dictates that they join with OPS, though there may not be many direct entrants to the BJP. I expect a considerable number of MLAs (both sitting and ex) to throw their weight behind OPS. This would be more certain, if the DMK also is headed for a split.
Yes, split in the DMK appears very certain given the hard fact that the CBI is tightening its noose around Kanimozhi. From Delhi Rajagopal’s inputs it looks certain that Kanimozhi along with A. Raja is going to face legal troubles. Does this not offer an opportunity to fix a deal to make Kanimozhi do a Shinde in Tamilnadu? (Tempted to link Annamalai’s soft corner for Trichy Surya for the likely utility he can offer in this scenario).
The elevation of Udayanidhi had not come a day later that there are more cons than pros in his elevation. The old-timers who are not willing to carry a fresh sand bag (Manal Moottai) in Udayanidhi would be more than willing to side with Kanimozhi who would be happier to start her own party “KDMK” (Karunanidhi DMK).
This is likely to get the support of M.K. Azhagiri too whose bastion (Madurai) is becoming the focus of attention for the BJP as the venue for G-20 meetings. Azhagiri may be lying low but his supporters are just dormant and bidding their time. Moreover, would Azhagiri lose a chance to promote his son when he gets a chance to checkmate the rise of Stalin’s son?
If the DMK is splitting, it means NDA’s chances are increasing. The ADMK split would be complete with more heavyweights coming to OPS camp. Should I need to tell that OPS and Kanimozhi would be part of the NDA then?
A split DMK and a split ADMK would make the contest in favor of the NDA.
The final nailing would be given by the Prime Minister Modi, the Master Strategist!
What Rangaraj Pandey told in Tamilnadu Dialogues would become true. Modi would contest from Tamilnadu – preferably from Kanchi – in addition to his present constituency Varanasi.
The environment comes into focus here.
The focus of Kasi-Tamil Sangamam on ordinary people from mofussil and rural regions of Tamilnadu would have a pro-Modi impact on the rural populations who care to go to the polling booth. The local booth-worker network of the TNBJP has a big role.
Modi’s love for Bharatiyaar makes me think that he may be toying with the idea of contesting from Kanchipuram – a place mentioned by Bharatiyar in the context of Kashi (making a communication equipment to deliver the poems of Kashi-poets to Kanchi). If he contests from Kanchipuram, it would have an impact on the whole of Chennai which is mostly a DMK stronghold. That hold of the DMK would be broken by Modi contesting from Kanchi.
With Kanimozhi faction and OPS faction coming into reality and joining the NDA (no other go once they come out) and scores of others coming under the NDA, it would enable an all-round presence throughout Tamilnadu. Modi entering the fray in Tamilnadu in that scenario would definitely charge the atmosphere. This is more probable in the given situation and the kind of developments in the last few days – that can avert a 3-cornered contest.
The loser will be EPS who seems to think that is a la Jayalalithaa!
Jayalalithaa was taller enough to challenge Modi – and ask the electorate to choose between Lady and Modi. But today there is no challenger to Modi and EPS is no Lady! High time EPS realizes this or else… Handling Tamilnadu to opt for 2-cornered contest is not a tough task for the strategists of the BJP.
PS: The hate Modi campaign by Dravida Model people is centred around GST and Demonetization. It's good these two are now under the purview of the Supreme court. A favourable verdict before 2024 elections will go a long way in defusing the hate campaign of the D Stock.
The only other hate factor is the propaganda that BJP is 'matha- vaada katchi'. By consolidating majority vote bank, possible to do a cake-walk