Previous articles:-
As we are nearing the end of NEM season, I would like to check the validity of Solar Garbottam that was done in last Margazhi between 29th December 2015 and 11th January 2016. This period was the time the Sun was transiting Pooradam (Purvashada) star in the solar month of Margazhi (Sagittarius). The first article in the series of observation of Garbottam in that period can be read here. All the articles on the entire 13 day period of Garbottam observation can be read here.
Rainfall
check - part 1 (Pre-Monsoon showers)
Rainfall
check - part 2 (Cyclone Roanu in Bay of Bengal)
Rainfall
check - part 3 (Late arrival of SW Monsoon)
Rainfall
check - part 4 (For July 2016)
Rainfall
check - part 5 (For August 2016)
As we are nearing the end of NEM season, I would like to check the validity of Solar Garbottam that was done in last Margazhi between 29th December 2015 and 11th January 2016. This period was the time the Sun was transiting Pooradam (Purvashada) star in the solar month of Margazhi (Sagittarius). The first article in the series of observation of Garbottam in that period can be read here. All the articles on the entire 13 day period of Garbottam observation can be read here.
To give a brief on that Garbottam, traditional
astrological view is that the entire period of 13 to 14 days of transit of Sun
in the star Pooradam (Purvashada) in the month of Margazhi (Margashira) gives
clues on the behaviour of rainfall prospects for the entire period of the next
rainfall season starting from June and ending in December. Five features
related to the atmosphere is observed on these days continuously with (roughly)
each two hours corresponding to one day starting from the date when the Sun
enters Arudra star in the opposite side of the zodiac six and a half months
after this observation is done. The five features are nature of the wind,
rainfall or drizzle, lightening, sound of thunder and nature & shape of
clouds.
While this observation is being done at atmospheric
level, behaviour of terrestrial animals and planetary positions are also
observed simultaneously to arrive at a conclusion whether “pregnancy” of clouds or “fetal
formation of clouds’ had taken place. The basic idea is that there is a gestation
period for rainfall fructification. Since the initial formation or seeding is
involved followed by a gestation period, the initial seeding / information is
compared to pregnancy and hence the name Garbottam – checking the nature of
Garbha. Garbottam is a Tamil word.
To put it more clearly, if there is rainfall on a
particular day, the meteorological features that gave rise to that rainfall
have had their first development 195 days prior to that. In other words, the
meteorological conditions that prevailed on a day would give its effect on the
195th day when earth would be exactly 180 degrees away from that
day.
In the case of Sun’s transit in Pooradam star, each
moment of sun’s movement gives rise to features and factors that determine the
rainfall that comes for a long period of 6 to 6 and a half months starting from
6 and a half months later. That would start from the time the Sun would be 180
degrees from the dates of Margazhi Garbottam.
Though I had written about almost all the salient
features of how to predict rainfall through Garbottam and other factors in a
7-part article in this
link
in 2013, I did a personal observation of these features only in the last season
(2015-2016 Margazhi) after Chennai was devastated by floods. It was on an
interaction with Mr Srikanth of Chennai
rains dot com that I started this analysis seriously
while simultaneously learning about basic scientific ideas of rainfall
prediction and doing astrological checking of rainfall data of the past years.
Though day-today observation that corresponds to rainfall on the 195th
day thereafter has been mostly successful as can be checked from the previous parts
in this series, the reliability / success rate of Margazhi Garbottam remains to
be analysed.
This analysis is all the more important as this
gives an overall picture of both SWM and NEM season for India. A concise
analysis of this Garbottam done in last Margazhi with the reality check of the
rainfall in the present year (since June) in Chennai is given below. As the
observation was done from a place in South Chennai, what is given here pertains
to realisation of rainfall in that part of Chennai where the observation was
made. (The theory of Garbottam requires visual observation to be done in every
place to assess the realisation of rainfall in that place).
|
Day
|
Date
of Garbottam
|
Observation & Prediction
|
Date
of Impact
(Fortnight)
|
Actual
impact
|
|
1
|
29th – 30th Dec 2015
|
Wind- Weak
Drizzles-
Nil
Lightening-
Nil
Thunder-Nil
Clouds-
Weak
Prediction:-
Drizzles,
Scattered rainfall
|
21st
June to
4th
July 2016
|
Drizzles –
Between 21st to 25th June.
Moderate rains – Between 26th to 28th June.
|
|
2
|
30th
-31st Dec, 2015
|
Wind-
Moderate in 2nd half.
Drizzles-
Nil
Lightening-
Nil
Thunder-Nil
Clouds-
Moderate.
Prediction:-
Scattered
rainfall, particularly in the 2nd half.
|
5th
July to
18th
July 2016
|
Moderate rains –
On
6th &7th July.
And
in the last few days of the fortnight.
|
|
3
|
31st
Dec- 1st Jan, 2016
|
Wind-
Satisfactory
Drizzles-
Nil
Lightening-
Nil
Thunder-Nil
Clouds-
Good
Prediction:-
Generally
wet throughout the fortnight especially in the 2nd half.
|
19th
July to 1st August 2016
|
Moderate rains- In the beginning and the end of the fortnight.
|
|
4
|
1st-2nd
Jan 2016
|
Wind-
Dry and strong,
Drizzles-
Nil
Lightening-
Nil
Thunder-Nil
Clouds-
Nil.
Prediction:- Dry and windy
|
2nd
August to 16th August 2016
|
Dry weather.
|
|
5
|
2nd-3rd
Jan
2016
|
Wind-
Hot wind at noon, still air at night
Drizzles-
Nil
Lightening-
Nil
Thunder-Nil
Clouds-
Nil
Prediction:-
Dry
weather.
|
17th August to 30th
August 2016
|
Moderate rains in the last few days of
the fortnight.
(Note: daily
Garbottam supported rains on those days)
|
|
6
|
3rd
– 4th Jan, 2016
|
Wind-
Mild breeze at twilights.
Drizzles-
Nil
Lightening-
Nil
Thunder-Nil
Clouds-
Few aquatic clouds at noon,
Prediction:-
Mostly
dry weather. Might drizzle here and there.
|
31st
August to 13th September 2016.
|
Rained
on 8th Sep.
|
|
7
|
4th-
5th Jan, 2016
|
Wind-
Gentle winds
Drizzles-
Nil
Lightening-
Nil
Thunder-Nil
Clouds-Good
and of aquatic shapes.
Prediction:-
Wet
conditions
|
14th
September to 26th September 2016.
|
Rained on
15th and 26th September 2016.
|
|
8
|
5th-6th
Jan, 2016
|
Wind-
Gentle breeze in 2nd half.
Drizzles-
Nil
Lightening-
Nil
Thunder-Nil
Clouds-
Good but aquatic forms were absent.
Prediction:-
Good
rains in last quarter.
|
27th
September to 10th October 2016.
|
Rained in
first quarter and last quarter too.
|
|
9
|
6th-7th
Jan, 2016
|
Wind-
Occasional breeze.
Drizzles-
Nil
Lightening-
Nil
Thunder-Nil
Clouds-
Less formation.
Prediction:-
Mild
rains in the 2nd half.
|
11th
October to 23rd October.
|
Mild rains
in the 2nd half.
|
|
10
|
7th-8th
Jan, 2016
|
Wind-
Hot wind at noon, still air at night
Drizzles-
Nil
Lightening-
Nil
Thunder-Nil
Clouds-
Nil
Prediction:-
Dry
weather.
|
24th
October to 6th November.
|
Failure of
cyclone Kyant
|
|
11
|
8th-9th
Jan, 2016
|
Wind-
Gentle breeze often
Drizzles-
Nil
Lightening-
Nil
Thunder-Nil
Clouds-
Moderate in afternoon
Prediction:-
Isolated
rains in 2nd half of the fortnight.
|
7th
November to 19th November
|
Moderate
rainfall in the 2nd half of fortnight.
|
|
12
|
9th-10th
Jan, 2016
|
Wind-
Very less
Drizzles-
Nil
Lightening-
Nil
Thunder-Nil
Clouds-
Very less
Prediction:-
Isolated rains in the 2nd
half of the fortnight.
|
20th
November to 2nd December.
|
Dry conditions.
|
|
13
|
10th-11th
Jan, 2016
|
Wind-
Moderate in the first half
Drizzles-
Nil
Lightening-
Nil
Thunder-Nil
Clouds-
Good in the afternoon
Prediction:-
Isolated
rains in the 1st half of fortnight and good rains in the 2nd
half of the fortnight.
|
3rd
December to 15th December.
|
Good rains
from Cyclone Vardah in the 2nd half of fortnight.
|
Success rate of Solar / Margazhi Garbottam.
Overall 12/13 days matched with the reality
conditions in the rainfall season of 2016. The one day that did not match was
the 5th day (2nd to 3rd January 2016)
The 5th day Garbottam showed absolute dry
conditions, but the impact period (17th to 30th August
2016) saw cloudy weather in the 2nd half of the fortnight with
rainfall starting on 25th August in my place of observation. This
can be attributed to the Daily Garbottam that showed prospects for rainfall in
that period.
The running star of the Garbottam day being Rohini
and Arudra, it ensured rainfall.
Another reversal was noticed on the 12th
day too. While the Garbottam prediction was isolated rains in the 2nd
half of the fortnight (20th Nov to 2nd Dec 2016), there
was no rain in the expected period.
On checking the 12th
day Garbottam article, I found that the features were very less. I had in fact
given the title as ‘failure’. Gentle
winds were felt around 3 PM on that day for a brief time. That was not
sufficient cause for rain-giving Garbottam.
This deficient condition must be borne in mind in future while assessing
the strength of the Garbottam features.
Good rainfall period.
Only 3 / 13 days of Solar Garbottam showed some
scope for rainfall. Of them the best was
the 3rd
day (19th July to 1st August 2016). Though gentle
winds were less, the sky was overcast for most of the day time. No other day in
that entire Garbottam period was like that.
Then the 7th day (14th
September to 26th September 2016) and the 13th day (3rd
December to 15th December 2016) also showed moderate cloud formation
and gentle winds. The other days did not have good Garbottam features.
Could I have predicted the dry NEM from
Solar Garbottam?
I think I had but did not make it a specific point
as I was keen on checking the reliability of this data.
Since my place of observation receives rainfall
mostly from NEM, the days that cover the NEM period gain significance. The
days, 9, 10, 11 and 12 of Solar Garbottam were a disaster with dry
conditions. The very titles I had given to
those articles reveal that.
This covers the period between 10th
October 2016 to 2nd December 2016.
Why it was dry during those 4 crucial Garbottam
days?
I have an answer which I discussed in those
articles.
There are 2 important spoilers of Garbottam, (1) Eclipse happening on the day of Garbottam and (2) Planetary war occurring on the day of Garbottam.
In the Solar Garbottam season of 2015 -16, a planetary war occurred between Saturn and Venus on the
days mentioned above. Planetary war means one planet coming within one degree
of the other. The planet which is behind the other is said to have been
defeated.
From the noon of 8th January till 7 AM on
10th January (10th, 11th and 12th
days of Solar Garbottam). Venus was behind Saturn within one degree. By this
Venus is said to have been defeated by Saturn. When Saturn is in front of
Venus, it would cause famine like conditions. On these days of planetary
defeat, the Garbottam features also looked spoiled. This started on the 10th
day afternoon when Venus entered
within one degree distance of Saturn. It must be noted that the cyclone Kyant failed during the period corresponding
to the 10th day of Solar garbottam.
On the 10th day (8th January 2016) the Sun was
crossed by dark clouds by 1 PM
A little later this was how the clouds looked:
sort of scorched.
By 3PM the
clouds looked shattered like this and were gone.
This is mis-carriage of the foetus of clouds!
For the entire duration of this planetary defeat,
the NEM had remained dry.
Interestingly, the daily Garbottam of the day when
planetary war started (at noon) gave rainfall on the 195th day (on
the mid night of 18th July).
This shows
daily Garbottam does give its share of rains. The planetary war is more crucial
during the Solar Garbottam days.
All the above are applicable to my place in South
Chennai.
However the presence of planetary war during the
period of Solar Garbottam could mar rainfall wherever the rainy season was due
in India.
Overall rainfall season 2016 for India.
At the national level, planetary combinations have
played a major role. From what I observed in this year, I can say with high level
of confidence the following.
· Whenever
Venus and Mercury enter the next sign (during rainy season), there will be a
trigger to rainfall in the places indicated by the direction of the sign
occupied by the planet and in the places indicated by the star in which the
planet is transiting at that moment.
There is an exception in that if these planets re-enter the next sign
after regressing into the previous sign, the re-entry does not cause rainfall.
· Whenever
Mercury or Venus start combustion and come out of combustion, there will be a
spurt in rainfall. The places are as indicated above.
In the above two occurrences, there is a high
probability of some formation of a system to generate rainfall.
· Closeness
of Mercury- Venus gives rainfall and cause rainfall generating features. With
the gap between them reducing more and more, higher chances of continuing
rainfall can be seen. When the cross each other, there is a spurt in rainfall.
· On
the contrary when the gap between them starts increasing, say reaching to the
extent of 40 + degrees, withdrawal of
monsoon happens.
· Sun
in front of all planets of behind all planets does result in good rainfall in
the places indicated by Mercury and Venus and Jupiter if it is also close to
them.
· Sapta
Nadi Chakra plays a greater role in helping or spoiling the rainfall. In the
year 2016, the transit of Saturn and Jupiter in Sapta Nadi stars had influenced
greatly the nature and amount of rainfall.
Sapta Nadi
Chakra shows the transit of the 7 planets (grahas) in specific stars. This is
an age old concept and I found that to be in complete control of the rainfall
condition this year. This chakra is given below.
1
|
Vayu Nadi
|
Kri, Vishaka, Anusha, Bharani
|
Saturn
|
Windy,
No rains
|
2
|
Vayu Nadi
|
Ro, Swati, Jyesh, Aswini
|
Sun
|
Windy, Rains
|
3
|
Dahana Nadi
|
Mri, Chith, Moola, Revathy
|
Mars
|
Heat,
Dry weather
|
4
|
Sowmya Nadi
|
Aru, Hastha, P-shada, U-Bhadra
|
Mercury
|
Windy,
Less rains
|
5
|
Nirjala Nadi
|
Punar, U.Phal, U-shada, P-Bhadra
|
Venus
|
Cloudy,
But no rains
|
6
|
Jala Nadi
|
Pushya, P.Phal, Abhijit, Shatabhishak
|
Jupiter
|
Plentiful
rainfall
|
7
|
Amirtha Nadi
|
Aslesha, Magha, Sravana, Dhanishta
|
Moon
|
Excessive
rainfall
|
In 2016, Saturn was
in Anusha (Vayu nadi) between 8th July and
17th September – a major period covering South West Monsoon.
With this major dampener, whatever other positive features of planets were
there, they were fighting and struggling to give whatever rainfall that was
realised.
At the same time, Jupiter
was in Jala Nadi in Purva phalguni star in forward motion from 9th May to 24th July. This comes
in the period of beginning of SWM.
· Opposition
of malefics (Mars and Saturn) to Mercury and Venus did delay the onset of SWM,
but Jupiter in Jala nadi gave most of the rainfall of the SWM season.
· Though
by August 16th all the planets came on one side of the Sun which is
a good feature for flood like situation, it did not happen in large scale due
to Transit of Saturn in Vayu nadi. Only those places coming under the influence
of Venus (Central India) experienced flood like situation.
· The
NEM season flopped perhaps due to planetary war during the Solar Garbottam.
· Though
a major feature of Mars, Saturn and Sun coming in alternate signs did happen
from mid-November onwards, it did not give desired rainfall, as Mars was in the
lead of all the planets from then onwards. This onward march of Mars continues
till June 2017 which is a cause of concern. For the time being, this feature
cannot give heavy rainfall even if daily Garbottam supports rainfall in a
place.
· By
29th December 2016, Mercury- Venus closeness is over. With that NEM
can be said to have ended.
Conclusion:
With this the rainfall check for the current year
comes to an end. The next season of Solar Garbottam for 2017 season begins on
28th December 2016 and ends on 10th January. The above assessment
of last Garbottam makes me think that it is far reliable to get general hints
on the nature of both SWM and NEM season. Having gained good insights in a year long
observation and interpretation, I am planning to begin the series for the next season
in an easier- to- follow way, for interested readers to do the check in their
respective locations.
Related articles:
Solar Garbottam series of 2015-16
