Saturday, July 9, 2016

Will Chief Justice S.K.Kaul take suo motu cognizance of the suffering of this Thiruchengode woman stigmatized by ‘Madhorubagan’ book?

I am sure many in Tamilnadu must be seething with anger at the insensitivity exhibited in the judgement of the High Court in seeing no offence but only freedom of speech in the way Mr Perumal Murugan, has constructed the ideas behind a still-in practice ritual in a famous temple in his novel “Madhoru Bagan”. One may argue that judgements must be sensible and that insensitivity is not an issue. But coming as it does closely on the heels of the Swathi murder case which received more media publicity after the Madras High Court lambasted the authorities for insensitive treatment to the victim with a remark that “Even a dead person has got right to dignity under the Constitution”, one is at a loss to understand how the esteemed Chief Justice of Madras High Court failed to see the affront cast by the novel on the dignity of every woman who has attended the festival – for countless generations from the past.

The ritual under scanner is one related to childless women circumambulating a stone / boulder called “Varadi-k-kal” (வரடிக்கல்) on top of the hillock of the temple of Arthanareeswara on the day of Vaikasi Vishaka during the annual car festival. Beliefs like this have existed in many other temples in India. One can say that this belief is widespread even today in  temples dedicated to snake god. Circumambulating the peepal tree for begetting children is a more widespread belief which I used to think was even present in Indus sites.



These beliefs could not have continued to exist if the prayers had not fructified. While the devout ones engaged in these rituals believe that God had answered their prayers, Perumal Murugan has thought differently. Claiming to have done a research on how the children are born to these women, he has spun his story that all these women – who were all married and childless, have had intercourse with unknown men in the guise of the ritual and borne children out of it. This has not just offended the people of that geographic region of Tamilnadu where the faith in the ritual still lives on, it has also cast a slur on countless women – all women now living and had lived - who had taken part in the ritual. When confronted to show proof of this which he has claimed in the preface, he had none to show.

In this background the issue has gone to the court. The court did not find anything offensive in his story and instead marked it as ‘freedom of speech’ while in reality it was ‘freedom of imagination’ crossing the border of another person’s dignity.

Not long ago the same court condemned the police with ‘insensitivity’ for having let Swathi uncovered for 2 full hours.

But the Chief Justice does not find anything insensitive with the blanket stigmatisation of the women who take part in that ritual. Strangely enough he has found insensitivity in the eyes of the people who objected to the depiction.

A part of the judgement reads

 “It is not to be judged by the eyes of the insensitive which sees only obscenity in everything… No one reading the novel would be persuaded to draw a definite conclusion as sought to be canvassed by the opponents of the novel that the endeavour of the author was to portray all women coming to the car festival as prostitutes. This is a complete misreading of the novel and its theme.”

Who is insensitive? Whose eyes are insensitive? When I scurried through many articles commenting on this judgement to look for some justice to those unknown women, I could not find any but only one which was written sensibly by none other than Mr S.Gurumurthy. The last paragraph of his essay tells the real pain inflicted by Perumal Murugan, the author of the book.

The last paragraph runs as follows:

An educated lady professional from Tiruchengode, who begot a child by undertaking the Visakam ritual, asked me what those who had read Murugan’s book would think of her and her child. I had no answer.”

Does the learned judge have an answer for this?

He said that no one reading this novel would draw a conclusion on the women who undertook the ritual. Here is one ready to have expressed her anguish to Mr Gurumurthy.

What explanation the Chief Justice can give this women and countless others who are silently suffering?

Will he take suo motu congnizance of the suffering inflicted on this woman by Perumal Murugan and bring justice to her, similar to the way the HC took note of Swathi’s murder?

Does he have the sensitivity to realise that like this woman, countless number of women who have done the ritual have been massacred like Swathi in public and more than that, stripped off their dignity?

*********************************
From

Madhorubagan, satanic verses, polyester prince

By 

S. Gurumurthy

The liberals in and outside the media are celebrating the Madras High Court judgment in the case of Perumal Murugan who wrote a book “Madhorubagan” — the book that had invited massive protests in Western Tamil Nadu by the Kongu Vellalar community who felt hurt by its contents. The High Court has written a long and profound prose on how liberal the Indian Constitution is and the freedom it guarantees. The Murugan case judgment calls for a comment in the backdrop of the country’s political and constitutional ecosystem.

Madhorubagan case


First, the facts of the Murugan case. The judgment sets out the contents of the book and the objections to it in paras 27 to 62, which are important. Madhorubagan is the name of the Hindu temple deity “Arthanareeswara” in Tiruchengode where from Murugan hails. The belief is that on the Vaikasi Visakam day of the temple’s annual car festival, childless couples who circumambulate the ‘Varadi Kal’ [a large boulder on hilltop] would be blessed with a child, known as “Sami Kodutha Pillai” [God Given Child]. Murugan’s book centres around a childless couple, Kali and Ponna of the 1940s. Kali’s mother advises him to allow his wife Ponna into the sexual orgy that takes place on the Vaikasi Visakam day — so that she begets a child through the orgy. 

As Kali refuses, Ponna’s brother tells him that the popular belief “Sami Kodutha Pillai” is only child begotten by women by sex orgy with strangers during Vaikasi Visakam. The imputation is also that most married Kongu Vellalar womenfolk in Tiruchengode indulge in sexual orgies and the childless among them get impregnated in the one night orgy. The festival is a once a year opportunity for youths from “untouchable” community, according to Murugan, to explore their libidos and orchestrate it on Kongu Vellalar community women above 30 years. Murugan even wrote that the youths would boast about how many women they had had sex with on that one night. It does not need a seer to say that unless a community is saintly, it must feel hurt by such writing, hurt to its religious feelings apart.

Facts not denied

The judgment does not indicate that the facts set out by the community are false. The only issue discussed is whether the author had intended the book as fiction or as historical narrative. Far from claiming it as fiction Murugan had said in his preface that he had studied and documented the Tiruchengode orgies. But when, at the peace meet called by government officials, community leaders asked for the documents, he could show none.

Despite the author himself asserting to the contrary [even though he withdrew his claim later], the book has been accepted as fiction in the judgment. Constitutional freedom of expression is not unlimited. Hurting facts maybe permitted. But hurting fiction should not be easily allowed. The law is clear that expressions should not offend decency or morality nor defame anyone or incite violence. Can women of a community be trivialised as amoral like Murugan has done to assert one’s constitutional right? Do such undignified remarks about women, whose dignity is paramount in any civilised society, promote freedom?

Self-exculpatory

The Court has castigated those who protested against the book as “a section of people just seeking to put themselves or their ancestors in the shoes of persons who are affected because of a reference to a location and a folklore, which description of location also stood withdrawn subsequently, since the author believed it was a work of fiction and could have been based anywhere else”. What impression the book intends and creates in the average reader is critical, not what the author Murugan believes, particularly post facto. Murugan’s retroactive belief is clearly self-exculpatory. He has written not about an unspecific section of people, but particularly about the women of the community he names. 

That community and the ritual are connected geographically and could not relate to any other place or any other community. He names and undermines the Kongu Vellalar community women. Imagine the community in Murugan’s book is about a more aggressive community or its ancestors. There would have been no peace meeting as in Tiruchengode — but only massive violence. Threat of violence, a worldly reality, has led to judicial silence, even restraint, on free expression. The most famous case was on Salman Rushdie’s book, “Satanic Verses”. Some 25 years back Islamic cleric Ayatollah Khomeini issued a fatwa to kill him for writing that book. The man is under protection till today. Recall Kamal Haasan’s film Vishwaroopam, three years back. The film cleared by Censor Board was banned in Tamil Nadu on law and order grounds as the protesting Muslims halted Chennai. The ban led to stopping its screenings in neighbouring states, even in a few foreign countries.

Satanic Verses and Polyester Prince

Judicial declarations on liberty and freedom hardly enthuse the people because of lack of consistent and evenhanded approach to all cases. When the Supreme Court denied the right to life and liberty in ADM Jabalpur case during Emergency and post-Emergency pontificated on the right of Maneka Gandhi to passport as part of the right to liberty, it was laughable. Salman Rushdie claimed his “Satanic Verses” was just a fiction and apologised, but no one took notice of it. India which, according to the Murugan case judgment, has “one of the most modern and liberal Constitutions” was the first country to ban Rushdie’s book! Liberals were afraid of challenging the ban. Even if it were challenged no court would have pontificated on the freedom of expression of Rushdie because had the book not been banned there would have been riots all over. Likewise no liberal challenged the ban on Vishwaroopam before courts like Murugan’s admirers enterprisingly do now. The reason is obvious. In the face of threat of violence, no one looks at freedom of expression. Liberals vanish before violent mobs. Take another case, that of Dhirubhai Ambani. This newspaper had carried on a relentless campaign in the 1980s to expose the wrongdoings of Reliance. But the government of the day joined hands with the wrongdoer and raided the paper, arrested the writer, harassed the owners, and filed over 300 criminal cases against it to protect Ambani. Later Hamish MacDonald, an Australian journalist, wrote a book “Polyester Prince” which documented the work of this paper and misdeeds of Ambani. “Polyester Prince” was barred in India. By who? By the judiciary at the lower level! The liberals like those who are crying for freedom of expression today did not take the case to the High Court or Supreme Court. The reason is self-evident. It concerned a most feared and richest Indian business group.

Ban on other books

See the sort of books banned by governments in India. The book “The Reminiscence Of The Nehru Age” by M O Mathai, secretary to Pundit Nehru, which explosively described all important personalities of Nehru era, was banned in 1978. Why? Because it offended the powerful. Freedom of expression didn’t matter. “Understanding Islam through Hadis” by Ram Swarup was banned in 1991. Why? Because it was critical of political Islam. “The Moor’s Last Sigh” a fiction by Salman Rushdie was banned in 1995. Why? It contained a character resembling Balasaheb Thackeray, the powerful Shiv Sena boss, also had a dog named Jawaharlal. The Supreme Court declared the ban unconstitutional in 1996. Yet, the book sellers, fearing violence, refused to stock the book in Maharashtra, the Shiv Sena forte. No liberal approached the Supreme Court for contempt. More.
The “True Furqan”, written by two Muslims Al Saffee and Al Mahdee, was banned for purportedly mocking Islam. A Pune court ordered the copies of the book by Anand Yadav which was derogatory to Tukaram and Dnyaneshwar to be destroyed in June 2014. Clearly, there is no consistency in the executive or judicial approach on objected books. The only guiding principle seems to be whether it will lead to violence.

Constitutional hypocrisy

The Tiruchengode community who were protesting against ‘Madhorubagan’ were ordinary people — dhoti-wearing countrymen, not modern urbanites. Not like the wealthy Ambanis, who could threaten the publisher to pulp the book or politically powerful like those who could get books, like the ones on Pundit Nehru or Bal Thackeray, banned.

The Tiruchengode people conducted a peace talk democratically where Perumal Murugan was invited to produce the evidence he had claimed. There was no violence. No one abused or molested him despite the issue being sensitive. Murugan apologised for his writing because he could not adduce any evidence. Yet the peace meet is regarded as kangaroo court, despite government officials initiating it.

Many disputes in India are settled by informal talks — be it panchayat or community leaders’ intervention. The famous Manipal group dispute lingering for decades in High Courts and Supreme Court was finally solved by a spiritual leader — Veerendra Heggade. A sweeping generalisation is likely to undermine a valuable, cost effective social capital still functioning in many parts of India. The judiciary ought to be empathetic and issue guidelines on how peace meetings or panchayat should be held rather than ridiculing and trivialising them. In communal riots or caste wars, even police invariably resorts to peace meetings and solves issues. Are they too kangaroo courts?

Despite Murugan’s provocative writing against their women, the community gathered for the peace meet, which was held without violence. They need to be patted. In Rushdie and Vishwaroopam cases, the protesters succeeded in their aim by unleashing violence. Were the Tiruchengode people wrong then in holding peace meeting? The conclusion is self- evident: A helicopter view of the cases on ban on books in most cases and selective assertion and celebration of freedom in some other cases exposes political and constitutional hypocrisy that goes on in the name of liberalism and freedom of speech.

Even handed approach needed

A personal account: An educated lady professional from Tiruchengode, who begot a child by undertaking the Visakam ritual, asked me what those who had read Murugan’s book would think of her and her child. I had no answer. Nor can the liberals who celebrate Murugan’s book have any. Thousands of women in Tiruchengode areas suffer this humiliation — silently. I understand their pain. Lesson: A balanced and evenhanded constitutional approach to ban or permit objectionable expression is needed.


Saturday, July 2, 2016

Swathi murder – time for introspection.

The daring murder of Infosys techie Ms Swathi by a stalker has sent shock waves across the society. This murder has definitely sent a sharp tremor in our body as every daughter from our homes is as vulnerable as Swathi. Any girl going to school or college or work place faces the risk of an attack from a stalker having a monster inside him.

This murder had also shaken our conscience as everyone of us have to ask ourselves before criticising the onlookers at the site of the incident, whether we would have acted any differently from those present at that time. Is it apathy or fear and immunity to crime - which one is keeping us at our back-foot when such a gory incident is happening in front of our eyes?

The media as usual did its job of enough character assassination of Swathi while giving space for callous commenters to spin their own versions of Swathi’s past and their imagined lovers of poor Swathi.  It was so sickening to read them all even after appeals were coming from  Swathi’s relatives to stop such speculations.

Media’s insensitivity is equally condemnable in their coverage of the female folks of the killer’s family who are also distressed and shocked at the behaviour of their kin. Photos showing his mother and sister crying while hiding their face from the camera made a pathetic essay on the mindless behaviour of the media.

On the other side of the coin, speculation about the caste and religion of the murderer went to the extent that even a sensible and non-controversial Y.G.Mahendra craeted a flutter inadvertently. S.Ve. Shekar added pep to that.

Now that the killer has been identified and captured we can expect support for him from psychological analysts, human rights specialists and even some caste parties, while the real culprit behind the kind of behaviour of the murderer will be having a gleeful day in having got a wonderful plot.  If you have guessed it right, I am referring to the movie makers!

Someone from that fraternity may even be discussing Swathi’s case right at the moment to make money and fame out of it. The ideas on how to stalk a girl, tease her, please her and bring her around by some ways are there for anyone’s take from the Tamil movies. A hero who looks completely unsuitable for the heroine will be using all kinds of ways of clash and bash to win the girl. If things don’t click, revenge is always there. If revenge is not there, the hero would quit but not without making all nasty comments about the girl.

There will be ‘situation songs’ for these moments and they will be instant clicks with our youth. Take a look at a sample of those songs I picked out from Chennai Times of 29th June 2016.


The worst part of it is that those who inspired the vulnerable youth with their roles in movies are preaching good behaviour to the public. I am referring to actor Kushboo who was making expletives to stop such incidents and accusing the bystanders at the scene of crime. Did she pause for a second to think what impression her role in Chinna Thambi movie would have created on vulnerable minds of both genders?  In that movie she was the youngest sister of a rich family who fell in love with an unlettered but a creative singer who didn’t even know what marriage means. That movie was a hit but no one knows how many impressionable minds were inspired / affected by that movie.

Her husband has an instant appeal with the young and particularly the C class audience with his outwardly comical movies. But thinking about them after seeing them, it is certainly disturbing to note that the plots and scenes are in effect polishing the lower instincts of those viewers.

For instance in his recent movie (Muthina Kathirikai) which was produced by Kushbhoo herself  and acted by her husband Sundar.C, the hero (Sundar.C.) was aping to hook a girl who was 15 years younger than him. It turns out that he has loved the mother of the girl in his younger days. Now that he is in love with the heroine, her mother (his lover once) can be seen making glances at him (jollu) which received loud applauses from the audience in the theatre. While such scenes looked obscene, the instant reception for such scenes from the audience was truly shocking. What right Kushbhoo has to speak like an activist of women’s right and advice people while she continues to be an inspiration for negative behaviour through the movies she makes and acts and has her husband acting?

Kushbhoo is not alone in this mission-inspiration for vulnerable minds. I brought in Kushbhoo’s name as I read reports on her talks on Swathi murder. Almost every other Tamil movie that is being released nowadays provide enough fodder to vulnerable minds to mistaken civil talks as signs of love and get into love traps of unmatchable kind.

Movie makers may resist this accusation, and defend their movies saying that they have only portrayed real life incidents. True, such incidents may have happened in real life, but they are rare. By showcasing them into movies, a justification for such behaviour is made in many minds. Even one among them indulging in crime will snatch away life from another Swathi.

It is time the movie makers also do their part of introspection in the name of Swathi – a rare pearl who will be remembered every time we see off our daughter to school or work place.




Friday, July 1, 2016

Rainfall check -4 (For July 2016)

New update added on 30th July at the end of the article.

Previous articles:-
Rainfall check - part 1  (Pre-Monsoon showers)
Rainfall check - part 2  (Cyclone Roanu in Bay of Bengal)
Rainfall check - part 3  (Late arrival of SW Monsoon)

We have entered the priod of realisation of the Garbottam that started on 29th  December 2015.
In the first article written on the first day of Garbottam observation on 29th December, the rainfall period was found to begin on 21st June 2016.

This being the first year of persoanl observation by myself, I began with the Solar Garbottam that starts with the Sun entering Pooradam (Purvashada) star. This date was in vogue in Tamilnadu. This date was a traditional one known for starting Paavai nonbu during Sangam Tamil Age.

But this date is a late one if we take into consideration the onset of SW Monsoon in the Indian sub continent. In this context the other schools of thought on Garbottam makes sense. I wrote about them in a blog written in December 2012. It is reproduced below.



The boxed one in the above piece shows the view of  the Siddhasena school advocating the starting of the observation on the fisrt day (prathamai) of waxing phase of Karthigai month. Last year (2015) that date was 12th December. Its impact day is 6 and a half later, that is on the first day of waning phase of Vaikashi. The corresponding date is 22nd May in 2016 This date falls in the crucial period of normal arrival of SW monsoon. Therefore, in future, the Garbottam must start from Karthigai month onwards. This observation must be done in the west coast of Peninsular India.

For Tamilnadu, the Solar Garbottam is more relevant. It started on 29th December 2015. The first 4 days of Solar Garbottam is relevant for June and July 2016. .

Rainfall scenario in June 2016 :-

In June this year the 2nd half of the month had cloudy days. On 21st, 24th and 25th there was mild pre-dawn drizzle in my place of observation. This is a good Garbottam feature for good rains in the last week of December 2016 about which separate post will be written.

On 26th, 27th and 28th of June 2016 there were moderate to good rains in many parts of Chennai. By the principle of Garbottam, there must have existed good garbottam 6 and a half months ago. So when I checked the corresponding dates of that period, they were 17th, 18th and 19th of December 2015. Unfortunately I didn’t maintain any records of garbottam at that time. But I can recall the rumours doing at that time of another round of rains and floods in Chennai. So it must have been cloudy on those days which resulted in rainfall now in June.

For the period starting 21st June 2016, we have Garbottam records written on 31st December 2015 and posted in Day -1 of Garbottam and Arudra Pravesham.
 It is reproduced below.

Only scattered rainfall and drizzles were indicated between 21st June and 5th July 2016.

For 3 days between 21st and 25th there were drizzles in my place of observation. There were rains for 3 days between 26th to 28th June. At the time of writing this, it is dry though there is cloudiness. As per the above Garbottam observation, Chennai, particularly my place of observation in the southern suburb of Chennai would not get rainfall till 5th July.

Rainfall scenario in July 2016:-

The details of the corresponding Garbottam period for July written on 3rd February 2016 can be read here:-

The gist of that observation is given below:


Now coming to the overall picture of SW Monsoon in July, the overall scenario is as follows (written on 29th February 2016)


The immediate date is 7th July when Budha- Shukra Sammephyam begins. This is likely to give rise to a spurt in the rainfall. Mercury entering this closeness in Punarvasu star indicates Eastern section of India. The countries benefited by the rainfall are mountains of Anjana, Vrishabha (Oddhisha), Karvata, Chndrapura, Maghada, Sibiragiri, Mithila, Jyothisha etc.

As of now a low pressure area exists in NW Bay that would benefit the above mentioned areas. The IMD report of today says as follows. This is likely to intensify further or make landfall on 7th July 2016.


The following features are present in July indicating good rainfall.

(1) Jupiter in deep conjunction with Rahu and within 1 degree from Rahu till 30th June.

(2) Jupiter in Purva Phalguni ensuring plentiful rainfall. This is known as Jala nadi. Jupiter will be in Purva Phalguni till 24th July.

(3) Mercury begins combustion on 25th June and continues to move near Sun. 

(4) The combustion of Mercury ends on July 18th which falls within the Jala nadi period of Jupiter.

(5) It is within this period the closeness between Mercury and Venus begins on 7th July which will bring very good rainfall. This period will last till 12th September. 

(6) On 16th July Mercury is crossing Venus in the watery sign of Cancer. This indicates a trigger in rainfall, probably the formation of a cyclone or a spurt in rainfall. The complete crossing takes 2 days. Therefore some phenomenon will be happen on 16th and 17th July.

(7) On those days Moon will be crossing Ketu in Purattadhi star which ensures very good rainfall.

(8) On those days and even during the entire month of  AAdi (July – August), Sun, Mercury, Venus, Mars and Saturn are going to be in watery signs. This ensures very good rainfall at that period.

Written on 31st December 2015 (Day - 2 of Garbottam, year 2015-16.)


Of the 7 features of Ativrishti yoga, Venus reappearing after combustion on Punarpoosam, is the only negative feature, for, Venus re-appearing after combustion in the star Punarpoosam will create dry weather conditions. But on that very same day, Venus enters the next sign Cancer and closeness with Mercury also starts. These two are strong Ativrishti features for plentiful rainfall. We have to see how these two different conditions prevail. The region that comes under Punarpoosam is east section above the Vindhyas and Cancer stands for North section to Vindhyas. 

Therefore the North east India is coming under the influence of this feature. There is likely to be a fall in rainfall in the North east section of India on the northern side of Vindhyas due to re-appearance of Venus in Punarpoosam..

However the overwhelming presence other positive features must ensure good rainfall in North India as Cancer- sign indicates North India.

The following was written on 2nd January 2015. From Day -3 of Garbottam year 2015-16


In addition we must check Aadi-k-kuri on 29th July and Parivesham on 19th July. (Written on 2nd January 2016 from 3rd day of Garbottam shows positive features for rainfall in 2nd half of July 2016.



The Aadi-k-kuri on 29th has the right combination of thithi and star thereby ensuring good rainfall till the end of the rainfall season.

Places of rainfall:-

(1) Conjunction of Mercury, Venus and Sun occurring in Cancer with closeness between Mercury and Venus happening:- Cancer being the sign of North, the North Indian lands - to the north of Vindhyas upto Himalayan foot hills will receive good rains.

(2) Jupiter in Jala nadi in Purva Phalguni :- Kosala, Kalinga (Oddisha), Vanga, Upavanga, Jatharanga, Vidharba, Vatsa, Andhra, Cedi, countries in and around the Vindhya mountains, Kishkindha, Nishada, Sabara etc will receive good rains.

(3) Mercury crossing Venus on 16th and 17th July indicating formation of a system / cyclone or spurt in rainfall – the location is Pushya star which indicates eastern section of India. This means the impact will be on the east coast and eastern countries like Vrishaba, Chandrapura, Karvata, Maghada, (Bihar?) far-east Jyothisha (Bengal and Bangladesh?). This also means the formation of the system could be in the Bay of Bengal.

Earlier in this analysis I wrote that 7th July is an important date showing a trigger for rainfall or landfall which could be connected with the low pressure in NW Bay near Oddhisha. And by 16th and 17th July, there also exists a trigger factor that could be a storm or just thunder storm. Two storms / cyclones in the Bay within 10 days gap looks doubtful. We must wait and see how the weather unfolds for these 2 dates.

Solar Garbottam for Chennai and my place of observations however corroborates the inference of a storm of thunderstorm in my place of observation and Chennai in general.  The chart for July period is shown below. It was written On Feb 3rd 2016.

The chart shows the dates of rainfall in my place of observation and in Chennai in general. I have to cross check with actual rainfall on those dates to ascertain the dependability of Garbottam observation.

Note the conjunction of Moon with malefics (Mars and Saturn) on the dates that correspond to 14th to 17th July. As per traditional rule of astrology, the conjunction of Sun or Moon with malefics in the Garbottam period would result in storms / cyclones / thunder storms in the rainfall period. Mercury crossing across Venus at that time strengthens the scope of formation of a system in the Bay. There must be present some trigger factor at that time.

However by 18th July the rainfall must come down as that date corresponds to Graha yuddha (planetary war) in the Garbottam period. Rainfall picks up by 30th July and continues into the 1st week of August 2016 which will be discussed in the post on August rainfall.


Mercury is crossing Venus on 16th and 17th July. We must note that when Venus crossed Mercury on 14th May 2016, a cyclonic depression formed in the Bay which further intensified into Cyclone Roanu (Part 1 of the series on Rainfall Check). Similar event is noticed on 16th and 17th July. We must wait and see whether similar formation of a system develops this time too.   

In general July will see good rains in Chennai as per Garbottam that was observed 6 and a half months ago. Even though Chennai and Tamilnadu do not come in the places indicated by the stars of Ativrsihti yoga, Chennai is likely to receive rains at that time. It means that the location of the system if at all it forms, will be higher up in the Bay.




UPDATE on 18th July 2016:-

As noted in the above article under the caption "Places of Rainfall", one can see that rainfall occurred as per the astrological prediction.

Point no 1 in that says,

// (1) Conjunction of Mercury, Venus and Sun occurring in Cancer with closeness between Mercury and Venus happening:- Cancer being the sign of North, the North Indian lands - to the north of Vindhyas upto Himalayan foot hills will receive good rains.//

Right from the time the closeness of Mercury- Venus started, rainfall pattern occurred in the above mentioned places. Madhya Pradesh, particularly Satna in the Vindhyas region suffered flooding. 



In the Himalayan foot hill region, Uttrakhand received phenomenal rainfall during the period of Budha - Shukra Sameepya and it continues to be so till the time of writing this.


As per point 2 
//(2) Jupiter in Jala nadi in Purva Phalguni :- Kosala, Kalinga (Oddisha), Vanga, Upavanga, Jatharanga, Vidharba, Vatsa, Andhra, Cedi, countries in and around the Vindhya mountains, Kishkindha, Nishada, Sabara etc will receive good rains.//

These places were the ones covered by SW monsoon so far.


The 3rd point is
// (3) Mercury crossing Venus on 16th and 17th July indicating formation of a system / cyclone or spurt in rainfall – the location is Pushya star which indicates eastern section of India. This means the impact will be on the east coast and eastern countries like Vrishaba, Chandrapura, Karvata, Maghada, (Bihar?) far-east Jyothisha (Bengal and Bangladesh?). This also means the formation of the system could be in the Bay of Bengal.//

There was rainfall in the regions mentioned as above.

The dates also saw a spurt in rainfall that benefited most of Tamilnadu and coastal regions. Chennai received scattered rainfall from thundershowers on these dates. At this time Mercury was crossing Venus in Poosam / Pushya star. Pushya indicates eastern ghats and countries such as Tamiralipta which is identified as Tamraparani. 

The skymet weather report showed longitudinally eastern section of India and the countries to the east of India experiencing thundershowers and lightening on 16, 17th and 18th July.
The following map shows the lightening / thunder shower locations as in the morning of 18th July 2016. 

(Source:- http://www.skymetweather.com/lightning-and-thunderstorm-across-india-live-status/)


Rainfall in my place of observation in South Chennai :-

As per the Garbottam chart of July for my place, it did rain in the early night of 6th and 7th July when Venus was re-emerging from combustion and also entering into closeness with Mercury. Closeness with Mercury must give rise to copious rains in the subsequent days, but it didn't. Because till 10th July, Venus was in Punarapoosam. 

On 10th and 11th July, it must have rained as per Garbottam chart, but rain clouds did gather on the evenings of those dates in my place but were dissipated later. This can be attributed to the effect of re-emergence of Venus from combustion in Punarpoosam. In other words, the garbottam had failed to materialize into rains owing to the adverse planetary position on the date of expected rainfall. The adverse planetary position is the re-emergence of Venus in Punarpoosam. 

Does it mean the Garbottam will go waste? Brihad samhita visualizes such cases too. 

 As per Brihad Samhita, chapter 21, verse 33,

"If owing to adverse planetary influences, pregnant clouds (garbottam features) should fail to yield rain at the season described, they will do so at the period of the next conception and in such a case the rain will be marked by a shower of hail."

The next dates come from 15th to 18th July which is the current period. The date 18th July can be ruled out as the corresponding day during Garbottam witnessed Graha Yuddha ( Planetary war) between Saturn and Venus. Graha Yuddha mars rainfall in the corresponding date which is 18th July 2016. 

As shown in the Garbottam charts above, these dates had very moderate garbottam, lasting for few minutes and not more than an hour. Except 16th, on other days there is only moderate rainfall or drizzles. 

In my place of observation there were mild drizzles on 16th  and 17th night. On 17th night the rainfall was moderate accompanied with thunder. 

The unique feature of this period is that the thunder showers experienced on these dates in other parts of Chennai were a local phenomenon and not the result of any activity in the Bay (as I guessed).

The following is the route of thundershower on the night of 17th July, 2016.

(Source:- http://www.chennairains.com/midnight-thunderstorms-in-chennai-southern-areas-benefit/ )

What is being witnessed on these days is unusual and unpredictable by meteorologists. But if we go by the guidelines of Brihad Samhita verse ( above quoted), we can rationalise that the disturbed Garbottam on 10th and 11th got manifested on the period between 15th and 18th July as thunder showers. This is a good case study, for  the direction of wind on Garbottam day gives a valid clue. On the Garbottam day, the wind was blowing from NE to SW. On the rainfall day it will be opposite, that is SW to NE.

If we keep this in mind, the expected thunderstorms as aided by the conjunction of Moon with malefics on the Garbottam dates would have given the clues on the direction of the thundershowers. Here the overall picture of Eastern direction as indicated by Poosam / Pushya star when Mercury was crossing Venus (on these dates) is not that much valid as the SW- NE direction indicated by the failed Garbottam dates. 

Another insight is about the duration of Garbottam. In the dates mentioned in the chart they did not last long, say, not more than half an hour. On some days it was for a few minutes only. The result is that the rainfall also was for a short duration in the current period of thundershowers in my place of observation. 


UPDATE on 19th July 2016.

It did rain after midnight of 18th in my place of observation. It tallied with Garbottam observation which was mild on the corresponding date in January. 

18th- 19th July was a test case as the corresponding date (January 8th) saw planetary war between Saturn and Venus in Scorpio. The rule is planetary war would mar rains, but it was falsified. So I have re-interpret this as not a planetary war. 

The rationale is that the planet involved is Venus, a benefic and a planet that gives rains when it crosses another planet say, Mercury. Venus and Mercury are rain related planets. Moreover Venus is a friend of Saturn as per astrology. So when two friends meet with one of them being a soft benefic like Venus, we must interpret it not as a planetary war. That is the insight from the current observation.

Usually Mars is associated with planetary war. Mars is an army man in astrology and any planet coming near it within one degree is said to suffer defeat. Therefore in future observation or in analysis of past records, the kinds of planets must be assessed to judge planetary war.  


UPDATE on 30th July 2016.

Heavy rains accompanied with floods reported in Assam and Bihar. 
Report here:- http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/assam-rain-floods-throw-normal-life-out-of-gear-across-various-states-2944268/

These regions come under the regions mentioned above in the article.

As far as Chennai is concerned, there was cloudiness and / or mild rains in the days mentioned in the Garbottam chart. On 30th July (today) it must have been wet throughout the day as per the Garbottam of the related day in January. But it was cloudy today right from sunrise and it rained at night around 8 PM.

One insight from this is that what was observed as Garbottam was right, but its ability to give rains must have depended on 3/5 features whereas in the notings so far, only 2/5 features were present.

Another insight is that the Garbottam had lasted for 10 minutes to half an hour in most cases. Accordingly this reduces the chance of rainfall. Only when the garbottam has lasted long for more than an hour, it could have an  impact.

Yet another feature is that presently Saturn in retrogression in Anusha star which causes shattering away of clouds by winds. That is what is exactly happening in Chennai. But the same seems to cause stormy showers in other places in TN and Bangalore where the rainfall is unleashed with the accompaniment of winds. Perhaps the Garbottam in those places were stronger than in Chennai.

The presently occurring ativrishti yoga of (1) closeness of Venus and Mercury (2) Venus and Mercury in the western sky (3) Sun, Saturn and Mars and watery signs etc are good for good rains in North India in particular (watery signs indicate North) and the places mentioned in the above article.