Saturday, October 1, 2016

Rainfall check -7 (North East Monsoon)

New Update added on 25th October at the end of the article. 

Previous articles:-

Rainfall check - part 1  (Pre-Monsoon showers)
Rainfall check - part 2  (Cyclone Roanu in Bay of Bengal)
Rainfall check - part 3  (Late arrival of SW Monsoon)
Rainfall check - part 4  (For July 2016)
Rainfall check - part 5 (For August 2016)
Rainfall check - Part 6 (For September 2016)

In this article, I am going to combine the Garbottam forecasts for the remaining 3 months (October, November and December) as that would give an idea of how the North East Monsoon is going to behave for Chennai and South India. Before doing that let me recap the rainfall scenario so far from astrological point of view.

Macro level predictions.

The macro level predictions are based on Year prediction, Megha prediction, Meghadhipathi prediction (Navanayaka) and Arudra Pravesha prediction.

Durmukhi Varusha phalan.

The Year prediction for Durmukhi varusham has been given as a verse in Tamil by Idai-k-kaadanaar which is as follows:

It says that there would be less rains in the beginning and more rains later. The reality check was that the monsoon was indeed late and picked up late.

The verse further says that there would be no deficit for Gurjara desha. In reality, Gujarat which was reeling under deficit for the past 2 years realised good rainfall after a delayed onset.

This does not mean that cotton production would be high this year, so says the verse. The verse says that items of white colour would be scarce this year. This is also coming true now.

The specific reference to Gujarat and indication of rainfall at later part might refer to the late rainfall realised by Gujarat and its neighbouring States that were reeling under drought since last 2 years. 

After seeing the SWM behaviour in these regions, I think this reference need not be about the NEM season. However the specific reference to increase in agricultural produce ( vELaNmai yErumE) in the first line gives an overall outline that food production would not suffer a deficit in general. This means the final tally of rainfall realisation would be sufficient for the whole country.

Megha- effect:

The Megha of this year (Durmukhi) is Neela Megha which will give mixed results. It would rain where there were no rains before but fail to rain in those places where it usually rains. This also came true. The Western Ghats in Kerala and Western Karnataka which used to be lashed generously by SWM received less rainfall. On the other hand the generally deficit regions to their east such as Telangna and North western states received very good rainfall.

This trend of Neela Megha also implies that the NEM season would also be such that it would rain where it normally does not rain, but fail in those regions where there used to be heavy rains. But this must be corroborated by other features.

In comparison, the next year’s KaaLa Megha (2017) would fare better as it is supposed to give copious rains accompanied with storms / cyclones. Drona Megha of 2018 would be more bountiful and marked with floods.

Meghadhipathi effect:

Mars is this year’s Meghadhipathi. Rainfall realisation by Mars would always be accompanied with storms or thunders. The rainfall would be uneven giving rise to drought conditions in some places. So far this has come true.

Arudra Pravesham of Sun.

This refers to Sun’s entry into the star Arudra. It happened on 21st June this year at 11 PM. The ruling planet was Mars which causes rains accompanied with storms at some places and dryness at some other places.

One can see all the above features are more or less on similar lines. The SWM season also exhibited the same general trend.

Planetary features of the SWM season:

The foremost feature is the Budha- Shukra Sameephya (closeness between Mercury and Venus). This closeness occurs thrice this year, 2 times occurring in SWM season and one time at NEM season.
They are,
(1) 10th May to 7th June
(2) 7th July to 12th September
(3) 27th October to 29th December.

The first occasion was marked with cyclone Roanu (Read here).

Then there was a lull due to opposition of Malefics such as Saturn and Mars Scorpio.

Rainfall picked up after this in western region with these planets transiting Gemini, the sign of west.
The 2nd occasion started off well but with 2 dampeners that ultimately decided the behaviour of the SW Monsoon.

They are (1) Venus came out of combustion in 2nd Mandala, on the day closeness began (7th July). When re-emergence of Venus from combustion happens in the 2nd Mandala, the rains will be below average. (Read my article here)

(2) On the next day, that is on 8th July Saturn entered Anusha which is Vayu nadi. (Read the sapta nadi chakra here.) This mars rainfall. This transit of Saturn ended only on 17th September. It means throughout the closeness period of Mercury and Venus, Saturn had played a spoilsport.

The 3rd occasion of closeness starts on 27th October and ends on 29th December. That could prove to be the NE monsoon period. Before going into the details of this period let me list down the planetary indicators that occurred on days of rainfall in the SW season this year (2016).

April 4, 2016
End of combustion of Mercury
First showers of the season lashed Swat valley of POK. Floods followed.

April 24, 2016
Venus enters Aries to join Sun and Mercury
First showers started in Assam. Floods followed.

April 30, 2016
Mercury starts retrogression
Thunder showers in North eastern States.
May 8, 2016
Venus in deep conjunction with Sun
Formation of low pressure trough in South Andaman sea.

May 10, 2016
Closeness of Mercury and Venus begins
Widespread rains in East and South India.

May 13- 14th , 2016
Deep conjunction of Mercury and Venus with Venus coming in front of Mercury
Formation of cyclone Roanu in the Bay.
May 18, 2016
Moon in opposition to Venus
Heavy rains in South Tamilnadu and Chennai.

May 20, 2016
Venus coming opposite to Malefics (Saturn and Mars in Scorpio)
Reduction in rainfall. Raomu moves along the coast.

May 21, 2016
Venus enters next sign and in conjunction with Sun
Cyclone Roanu makes landfall in Bangladesh.

May 22 to 24, 2016
Venus in opposition to Mars
Heat wave conditions.
May 21 to June 7, 2016
Venus in opposition to malefics.
Reduction in rainfall
June 7, 2016
Venus crossed Sun, Mercury entered the next sign to join Sun and Venus.
Outbreak of SW Monsoon.
June 18, 2016
Jupiter to cross Rahu within 1 degree.
Rainfall picks up.
June 19, 2016
Jupiter nearing Rahu within 1 degree in Purva Phalguni.
SWM enters Mumbai
June 25, 2016
Mercury begins combustion. Deep conjunction of Jupiter with Rahu.
Heavy rains begin in Vindhya region / Central India .


July 7, 2016
Mercury – Venus closeness begins.

Low Pressure in NW Bay. Heavy rains begin in Madhya Pradesh and Uttrakhand.
July 7, 2016
Venus re-emerges from combustion in Punarpoosam.
Must reduce rainfall
July 8, 2016
Saturn enters Anusham
Must reduce rainfall till September 17.
July 16, 17
Mercury crosses Venus
Rainfall in eastern India. Heavy rains in Assam, Bihar.
July 31, August 1, 2016
Venus enters next sign to join Mercury, Rahu, Jupiter.
Rains in North and NW India
August 9, 2016
Mercury crosses Rahu.
First Monsoon Depression in NW Bay near Oddhisha.
August 16, 2016 to
September 9, 2016
All planets  behind Sun. Supposed to give flood like situation.
Fresh Low Pressure in Bay intensifies and gives rains across central India, East India  and Andhra.
August 20, 2016
Mercury enters Virgo
Rains in Vijayawada, Andhra, North Tamilnadu
August 25, 2016
Venus enters Virgo
Rains in Andhra

August 30, 31, 2017
Mercury begins retrogression.
Rains in Chennai
September 8, 2016
Mercury enters previous sign in retrogression.
Lack of Rainfall.
September 12, 2016
End of closeness between Mercury and Venus.
Rainfall ends in North India.
September 21, 2016
Mercury ends retrogression and turns forward.
Heavy rains in Andhra, Telangana
September 28, 2016
Mercury and Venus reach the maximum gap between themselves of 48 degrees
Withdrawal of SW Monsoon begins in North west India.

North East Monsoon indicators.

The current period between SWM and NEM is marked with occasional thunder showers in Chennai and in parts of east peninsular India. This can be attributed to the forward motion of Mercury in Leo which signifies eastern direction. Even though I am tempted to locate the arrival of NEM on 27th October, as Mercury- Venus closeness begins on that date, the Daily Garbottam chart for October shows change of direction of winds for the first time on 25th October itself. Until April 16th, the wind direction was North- North East. This will become opposite during the rainfall realisation period which is running now. So correspondingly, till October 24th, the wind direction would be from South- Southwest. From October 25th onwards, the direction changes to North- North east. This must be cross-checked in reality.

The Garbottam for Chennai (my place of observation) also shows that there will be rains in the second half of Navarathri and on the previous night of Diwali.

The 8th day of Solar Garbottam observed on 6th January showed that there would be rains in the last part of Navarathri. That is re-affirmed in daily Garbottam given in the chart below. In fact the present fortnight between 26th September and 10th October corresponds to the 8th day of Solar Garbottam. The movement of dark clouds of aquatic shapes across the face of the sun on that day on 6th January is bearing results by way of rainfall now in Chennai.

Swan shaped (inverted) dark cloud across the sun around 1-30 PM on 6th January.

In general October would be wet. The rainfall realisation dates can be known from the chart below.

It is noticed that the rainfall would be mild to moderate and not torrential in October.

A major depressing feature in this period is that Mercury will be in Hasta star from 9th October to 17th October which would reduce the incidence and intensity of rainfall.  This indicates dryness after Navarathri.  The sign being Virgo, the region coming under this spell is South India and South east Tamilnadu.

Another dampener is Sun which will affect rainfall between October 23rd and November 6th as it will be transiting Swati in Vayu nadi in Libra. This would result in windiness and less rainfall. As Libra signifies West, South west and west Tamilnadu gets this effect. However by16th November a major turnaround happens. On 16th November Sun enters Scorpio to join with Saturn. From then onwards until 10th December, sun, Saturn and Mars would be in alternating signs. This is a strong rainfall yoga which existed during Chennai floods last year (November -December 2015). On the days Moon moves through 5th, 7th and 9th signs from t these planets, there would be heavy rains.

Mercury – Venus closeness continues in this period and there is no spoilsport around. This ensures good rainfall. The Garbottam chart for Chennai and suburbs do not show scope for rainfall in this period. The stars transited by Moon point out to east and South east India / Tamilnadu.

The next probable dates are shown below.

On 23rd, 24th and 25th November, Moon would be in the 9th sign from Mars and not from Sun and Saturn. But Moon joins Jupiter which is a rainfall yoga. Venus is ahead of Mercury in their closeness. So these features could give rainfall on these dates, though it would be less intense than the dates given in the previous chart.

Once again Chennai looks dry in the November Garbottam chart except on 25th. Moon in Virgo at that time indicates Southern parts of Tamilnadu that cover river Kaveri and other rivers of the south.
The next possible date is December 12th, but Mars had by then moved out of the alternating sign. 

Anyway in the period between 16th November and 10th December, this rainfall yoga exists favouring Southern parts of Tamilnadu or regions south of Chennai.

November rainfall:-

The Garbottam chart of November shows that there is scope for a Depression around November 3rd. Though it does not give good rains to Chennai, it is possible other coastal regions could get rainfall.

In all probability November would be dry in Chennai. The trend continues in December also. There would be moderate rains in Chennai in the 2nd week and middle of December. This tallies with Solar Garbottam (Read here)

Rainfall indicated by planetary movement is given in the chart below.

Oct 3, 2016
Mercury re-enters Virgo.
Moderate rainfall in South TN.
Oct 7, 2016
Mercury begins combustion.
Spurt in rainfall in South TN
Oct 9, 2016 to 17th
Mercury in Hasta.
Rainfall affected.
Oct 10, 2016
Jupiter ends combustion.
Spurt in rainfall in South TN including Kaveri basin.
Oct 12-13, 2016
Venus enters next sign – Scorpio
Spurt in rainfall in West Tamilnadu.
Oct 25 – 27, 2016
Mercury in deep conjunction with Sun
Cyclonic or stormy rains in South and South west Tamilnadu.
Or some meteorological event.
Oct 27, 2016
Mercury- Venus closeness begins.
Rainfall period (NEM) begins.
Oct 29, 2016
Venus enters deep conjunction with Saturn in the star Jyeshta.
Rainfall in West Tamilnadu as Jyeshta signifies west. The sign Scorpio signifies North; therefore north TN and regions north to it also come under rains.
Nov 1, 2016
Mars enters alternating sign with Saturn.
Some meteorological event can be expected.
Nov 7, 2016
Venus enters next sign
Rainfall in eastern section of TN / east coast of Peninsular India.
Nov 9, 2016
Mercury enters next sign
Some Rainfall activity in North TN.
Nov 16, 2016 to Dec 10, 2016
Sun enters Scorpio to join Saturn and comes in alternating sign to Mars
Good rainfall  in South and South west TN.
Nov 19, 2016
Mercury comes out of combustion.
Spurt in rainfall in South Western TN / interiors.
Nov 28, 2016
Mercury enters next sign (Sagittarius) to join Venus
Spurt in rainfall in eastern section.
Nov 28, 2016 to Dec 11, 2016
Venus enters Uttrashada
Cloudiness and less rains.

Dec 2, 2016
Venus enters next sign and comes behind Mars
Dry weather South.
Dec 8, 9 - 2016
Moon in watery sign – 5th from Saturn-Sun
Rainfall likely in northern TN.

The important period in this NEM season is between November 16th and December 10th. This period has 2 major Rainfall combinations.
(1) Mercury – Venus closeness.
(2) Sun, Saturn and Mars in alternating signs.

The 2nd combination points to south and south west Tamilnadu. Chennai does not come under this spell. The Daily Garbottam charts also do not show continuous or torrential rains to Chennai during this NEM season. Therefore a repeat of Chennai floods of 2015 can not be expected this year. Moreover the rule is that if it rains well during Sun’s movement in particular stars in a year, the rains will be subdued in the next year when Sun moves in the same star. As per this rule, heavy rains from 2nd half of Nov to 1st half of Dec is ruled out.

December Garbottam shows that rains pick up around Christmas in Chennai. Last year (2015) it rained in South TN around Christmas and not in Chennai. As per the Sun’s transit rule (Karti rule) written above, this reversal is possible this year.

While further updates would be given here upon cross checking reality picture, I am thrilled to say that the pre-monsoon predictions for next year (2017) had started last week! The cloudy conditions with passing drizzles experienced in the last week of September correspond to the first week of April 2017 which is likely to see pre-monsoon showers in Chennai!

UPDATE on 6th October 2016.

An important observation was that Mercury's re-entry into the next sign on October 3rd did not bring out rainfall. The learning is that Mercury or Venus on their entry into previous sign in retrogression and subsequent return to the next sign do not bring out rainfall. It was not so when they move to the next sign in normal course. 

The next feature noticed was that there is renewed rainfall activity in Gujarat even though SWM had started withdrawing. This is as per Durmukhi varusha phalan that says that Gujarat would receive rainfall. The prediction of rainfall in late part seems to refer to Gujarat as it receives rainfall in the later part of SWM even after it had started withdrawing.

The 3rd observation as on today is that it rained in central TN and not South TN on 5th October as written in October Garbottam chart. The specific reference to South TN was written on the rationale that it rained in South TN in the corresponding date on March 28th. If it rains on a day, there wont be rains on the 195th day in that place. Therefore the places that received rainfall on 5th Oct would not have received rains on March 28th. The places that received rainfall on 5th Oct are in central TN.

From IMD Source

UPDATE on 13th October:-

Interestingly,  the astrological predictions of rainfall based on planetary motion are happening on dot till today. Point 4 in the column on rainfall prospects from Oct to Dec based on planetary movement says that there will be rainfall in the Kaveri basin and this is triggered by Jupiter coming out of combustion. It started raining in the Kaveri delta region and also in the catchment areas of Kaveri in Karnataka right from that time. The garbottam for Chennai also came true as far as my place of observation is concerned with feeble / traces of rainfall on most of the days mentioned. Similarly the prediction of rains in West Tamilnadu is also happening.

UPDATE on 25th October:-

Mercury getting closer to the Sun in deep conjunction today, the 25th October, I expected a meteorological event to develop and wrote so in the table in the above article. A cyclonic storm which was moving towards Myanmar had taken a U turn and set on a course to Indian east coast from today onwards. The IMD report  released now is given below.

Named as Kyant, this is expected to cross the shore just North of Tamilnadu by 29th October. One can check this in the article above where I have noted that on 29th when Venus enters deep conjunction with Saturn, there will be rains in north of Tamilnadu. 

A great insight from the current developments is that the rules of rainfall astrology discussed in this series based on ancient wisdom of Vedic sages pertain to Indian sub continent only. This is understood in the current scenario wherein the storm was not recognised by the astrological features when it was going towards Myanmar. But the moment the conducive planetary features started, the storm / meteorological events turned conducive to India. 

The October Garbottam chart shows mild rains in Chennai on and around Diwali. The current meteorological conditions favour that. One more observation based on what is noticed in the past months is that the expected rainfall from storm Kyant to Chennai can be more than indicated by Garbottam (as mild). This is because the previous dates of Garbottam realisation dates for October for Chennai did not give good rains. They were either scanty or nil on some dates. As per Varahamihira, if such failure or Garbottam- realisation happened due to non- conducive planetary combinations (in the present case, Mercury- Venus closeness was not there on those days + no planetary rainfall yoga was present), the next rains on the next Garbottam -realisations dates would be more and stormy. 

Currently the Mercury - Venus closeness begins from 27th October. There fore the next rains expected from Kyant until 30th October would be more than being mild as written in the October Garbottam chart.

Another observation is that I expected a flow of winds from East and North east from today (25th) onwards. This was based on the observation on Garbotatm date on April 17th, when for the first time after months, the flow of winds was from West - South west. The rationale is that the wind will blow from the opposite direction on the realisation date. With storm Kyant having turned towards east coast, the flow of winds had started from east- North east. Today is the exact day to happen as per observation. And it happened!