Friday, July 1, 2016

Rainfall check -4 (For July 2016)

New update added on 30th July at the end of the article.

Previous articles:-
Rainfall check - part 1  (Pre-Monsoon showers)
Rainfall check - part 2  (Cyclone Roanu in Bay of Bengal)
Rainfall check - part 3  (Late arrival of SW Monsoon)

We have entered the priod of realisation of the Garbottam that started on 29th  December 2015.
In the first article written on the first day of Garbottam observation on 29th December, the rainfall period was found to begin on 21st June 2016.

This being the first year of persoanl observation by myself, I began with the Solar Garbottam that starts with the Sun entering Pooradam (Purvashada) star. This date was in vogue in Tamilnadu. This date was a traditional one known for starting Paavai nonbu during Sangam Tamil Age.

But this date is a late one if we take into consideration the onset of SW Monsoon in the Indian sub continent. In this context the other schools of thought on Garbottam makes sense. I wrote about them in a blog written in December 2012. It is reproduced below.

The boxed one in the above piece shows the view of  the Siddhasena school advocating the starting of the observation on the fisrt day (prathamai) of waxing phase of Karthigai month. Last year (2015) that date was 12th December. Its impact day is 6 and a half later, that is on the first day of waning phase of Vaikashi. The corresponding date is 22nd May in 2016 This date falls in the crucial period of normal arrival of SW monsoon. Therefore, in future, the Garbottam must start from Karthigai month onwards. This observation must be done in the west coast of Peninsular India.

For Tamilnadu, the Solar Garbottam is more relevant. It started on 29th December 2015. The first 4 days of Solar Garbottam is relevant for June and July 2016. .

Rainfall scenario in June 2016 :-

In June this year the 2nd half of the month had cloudy days. On 21st, 24th and 25th there was mild pre-dawn drizzle in my place of observation. This is a good Garbottam feature for good rains in the last week of December 2016 about which separate post will be written.

On 26th, 27th and 28th of June 2016 there were moderate to good rains in many parts of Chennai. By the principle of Garbottam, there must have existed good garbottam 6 and a half months ago. So when I checked the corresponding dates of that period, they were 17th, 18th and 19th of December 2015. Unfortunately I didn’t maintain any records of garbottam at that time. But I can recall the rumours doing at that time of another round of rains and floods in Chennai. So it must have been cloudy on those days which resulted in rainfall now in June.

For the period starting 21st June 2016, we have Garbottam records written on 31st December 2015 and posted in Day -1 of Garbottam and Arudra Pravesham.
 It is reproduced below.

Only scattered rainfall and drizzles were indicated between 21st June and 5th July 2016.

For 3 days between 21st and 25th there were drizzles in my place of observation. There were rains for 3 days between 26th to 28th June. At the time of writing this, it is dry though there is cloudiness. As per the above Garbottam observation, Chennai, particularly my place of observation in the southern suburb of Chennai would not get rainfall till 5th July.

Rainfall scenario in July 2016:-

The details of the corresponding Garbottam period for July written on 3rd February 2016 can be read here:-

The gist of that observation is given below:

Now coming to the overall picture of SW Monsoon in July, the overall scenario is as follows (written on 29th February 2016)

The immediate date is 7th July when Budha- Shukra Sammephyam begins. This is likely to give rise to a spurt in the rainfall. Mercury entering this closeness in Punarvasu star indicates Eastern section of India. The countries benefited by the rainfall are mountains of Anjana, Vrishabha (Oddhisha), Karvata, Chndrapura, Maghada, Sibiragiri, Mithila, Jyothisha etc.

As of now a low pressure area exists in NW Bay that would benefit the above mentioned areas. The IMD report of today says as follows. This is likely to intensify further or make landfall on 7th July 2016.

The following features are present in July indicating good rainfall.

(1) Jupiter in deep conjunction with Rahu and within 1 degree from Rahu till 30th June.

(2) Jupiter in Purva Phalguni ensuring plentiful rainfall. This is known as Jala nadi. Jupiter will be in Purva Phalguni till 24th July.

(3) Mercury begins combustion on 25th June and continues to move near Sun. 

(4) The combustion of Mercury ends on July 18th which falls within the Jala nadi period of Jupiter.

(5) It is within this period the closeness between Mercury and Venus begins on 7th July which will bring very good rainfall. This period will last till 12th September. 

(6) On 16th July Mercury is crossing Venus in the watery sign of Cancer. This indicates a trigger in rainfall, probably the formation of a cyclone or a spurt in rainfall. The complete crossing takes 2 days. Therefore some phenomenon will be happen on 16th and 17th July.

(7) On those days Moon will be crossing Ketu in Purattadhi star which ensures very good rainfall.

(8) On those days and even during the entire month of  AAdi (July – August), Sun, Mercury, Venus, Mars and Saturn are going to be in watery signs. This ensures very good rainfall at that period.

Written on 31st December 2015 (Day - 2 of Garbottam, year 2015-16.)

Of the 7 features of Ativrishti yoga, Venus reappearing after combustion on Punarpoosam, is the only negative feature, for, Venus re-appearing after combustion in the star Punarpoosam will create dry weather conditions. But on that very same day, Venus enters the next sign Cancer and closeness with Mercury also starts. These two are strong Ativrishti features for plentiful rainfall. We have to see how these two different conditions prevail. The region that comes under Punarpoosam is east section above the Vindhyas and Cancer stands for North section to Vindhyas. 

Therefore the North east India is coming under the influence of this feature. There is likely to be a fall in rainfall in the North east section of India on the northern side of Vindhyas due to re-appearance of Venus in Punarpoosam..

However the overwhelming presence other positive features must ensure good rainfall in North India as Cancer- sign indicates North India.

The following was written on 2nd January 2015. From Day -3 of Garbottam year 2015-16

In addition we must check Aadi-k-kuri on 29th July and Parivesham on 19th July. (Written on 2nd January 2016 from 3rd day of Garbottam shows positive features for rainfall in 2nd half of July 2016.

The Aadi-k-kuri on 29th has the right combination of thithi and star thereby ensuring good rainfall till the end of the rainfall season.

Places of rainfall:-

(1) Conjunction of Mercury, Venus and Sun occurring in Cancer with closeness between Mercury and Venus happening:- Cancer being the sign of North, the North Indian lands - to the north of Vindhyas upto Himalayan foot hills will receive good rains.

(2) Jupiter in Jala nadi in Purva Phalguni :- Kosala, Kalinga (Oddisha), Vanga, Upavanga, Jatharanga, Vidharba, Vatsa, Andhra, Cedi, countries in and around the Vindhya mountains, Kishkindha, Nishada, Sabara etc will receive good rains.

(3) Mercury crossing Venus on 16th and 17th July indicating formation of a system / cyclone or spurt in rainfall – the location is Pushya star which indicates eastern section of India. This means the impact will be on the east coast and eastern countries like Vrishaba, Chandrapura, Karvata, Maghada, (Bihar?) far-east Jyothisha (Bengal and Bangladesh?). This also means the formation of the system could be in the Bay of Bengal.

Earlier in this analysis I wrote that 7th July is an important date showing a trigger for rainfall or landfall which could be connected with the low pressure in NW Bay near Oddhisha. And by 16th and 17th July, there also exists a trigger factor that could be a storm or just thunder storm. Two storms / cyclones in the Bay within 10 days gap looks doubtful. We must wait and see how the weather unfolds for these 2 dates.

Solar Garbottam for Chennai and my place of observations however corroborates the inference of a storm of thunderstorm in my place of observation and Chennai in general.  The chart for July period is shown below. It was written On Feb 3rd 2016.

The chart shows the dates of rainfall in my place of observation and in Chennai in general. I have to cross check with actual rainfall on those dates to ascertain the dependability of Garbottam observation.

Note the conjunction of Moon with malefics (Mars and Saturn) on the dates that correspond to 14th to 17th July. As per traditional rule of astrology, the conjunction of Sun or Moon with malefics in the Garbottam period would result in storms / cyclones / thunder storms in the rainfall period. Mercury crossing across Venus at that time strengthens the scope of formation of a system in the Bay. There must be present some trigger factor at that time.

However by 18th July the rainfall must come down as that date corresponds to Graha yuddha (planetary war) in the Garbottam period. Rainfall picks up by 30th July and continues into the 1st week of August 2016 which will be discussed in the post on August rainfall.

Mercury is crossing Venus on 16th and 17th July. We must note that when Venus crossed Mercury on 14th May 2016, a cyclonic depression formed in the Bay which further intensified into Cyclone Roanu (Part 1 of the series on Rainfall Check). Similar event is noticed on 16th and 17th July. We must wait and see whether similar formation of a system develops this time too.   

In general July will see good rains in Chennai as per Garbottam that was observed 6 and a half months ago. Even though Chennai and Tamilnadu do not come in the places indicated by the stars of Ativrsihti yoga, Chennai is likely to receive rains at that time. It means that the location of the system if at all it forms, will be higher up in the Bay.

UPDATE on 18th July 2016:-

As noted in the above article under the caption "Places of Rainfall", one can see that rainfall occurred as per the astrological prediction.

Point no 1 in that says,

// (1) Conjunction of Mercury, Venus and Sun occurring in Cancer with closeness between Mercury and Venus happening:- Cancer being the sign of North, the North Indian lands - to the north of Vindhyas upto Himalayan foot hills will receive good rains.//

Right from the time the closeness of Mercury- Venus started, rainfall pattern occurred in the above mentioned places. Madhya Pradesh, particularly Satna in the Vindhyas region suffered flooding. 

In the Himalayan foot hill region, Uttrakhand received phenomenal rainfall during the period of Budha - Shukra Sameepya and it continues to be so till the time of writing this.

As per point 2 
//(2) Jupiter in Jala nadi in Purva Phalguni :- Kosala, Kalinga (Oddisha), Vanga, Upavanga, Jatharanga, Vidharba, Vatsa, Andhra, Cedi, countries in and around the Vindhya mountains, Kishkindha, Nishada, Sabara etc will receive good rains.//

These places were the ones covered by SW monsoon so far.

The 3rd point is
// (3) Mercury crossing Venus on 16th and 17th July indicating formation of a system / cyclone or spurt in rainfall – the location is Pushya star which indicates eastern section of India. This means the impact will be on the east coast and eastern countries like Vrishaba, Chandrapura, Karvata, Maghada, (Bihar?) far-east Jyothisha (Bengal and Bangladesh?). This also means the formation of the system could be in the Bay of Bengal.//

There was rainfall in the regions mentioned as above.

The dates also saw a spurt in rainfall that benefited most of Tamilnadu and coastal regions. Chennai received scattered rainfall from thundershowers on these dates. At this time Mercury was crossing Venus in Poosam / Pushya star. Pushya indicates eastern ghats and countries such as Tamiralipta which is identified as Tamraparani. 

The skymet weather report showed longitudinally eastern section of India and the countries to the east of India experiencing thundershowers and lightening on 16, 17th and 18th July.
The following map shows the lightening / thunder shower locations as in the morning of 18th July 2016. 


Rainfall in my place of observation in South Chennai :-

As per the Garbottam chart of July for my place, it did rain in the early night of 6th and 7th July when Venus was re-emerging from combustion and also entering into closeness with Mercury. Closeness with Mercury must give rise to copious rains in the subsequent days, but it didn't. Because till 10th July, Venus was in Punarapoosam. 

On 10th and 11th July, it must have rained as per Garbottam chart, but rain clouds did gather on the evenings of those dates in my place but were dissipated later. This can be attributed to the effect of re-emergence of Venus from combustion in Punarpoosam. In other words, the garbottam had failed to materialize into rains owing to the adverse planetary position on the date of expected rainfall. The adverse planetary position is the re-emergence of Venus in Punarpoosam. 

Does it mean the Garbottam will go waste? Brihad samhita visualizes such cases too. 

 As per Brihad Samhita, chapter 21, verse 33,

"If owing to adverse planetary influences, pregnant clouds (garbottam features) should fail to yield rain at the season described, they will do so at the period of the next conception and in such a case the rain will be marked by a shower of hail."

The next dates come from 15th to 18th July which is the current period. The date 18th July can be ruled out as the corresponding day during Garbottam witnessed Graha Yuddha ( Planetary war) between Saturn and Venus. Graha Yuddha mars rainfall in the corresponding date which is 18th July 2016. 

As shown in the Garbottam charts above, these dates had very moderate garbottam, lasting for few minutes and not more than an hour. Except 16th, on other days there is only moderate rainfall or drizzles. 

In my place of observation there were mild drizzles on 16th  and 17th night. On 17th night the rainfall was moderate accompanied with thunder. 

The unique feature of this period is that the thunder showers experienced on these dates in other parts of Chennai were a local phenomenon and not the result of any activity in the Bay (as I guessed).

The following is the route of thundershower on the night of 17th July, 2016.

(Source:- )

What is being witnessed on these days is unusual and unpredictable by meteorologists. But if we go by the guidelines of Brihad Samhita verse ( above quoted), we can rationalise that the disturbed Garbottam on 10th and 11th got manifested on the period between 15th and 18th July as thunder showers. This is a good case study, for  the direction of wind on Garbottam day gives a valid clue. On the Garbottam day, the wind was blowing from NE to SW. On the rainfall day it will be opposite, that is SW to NE.

If we keep this in mind, the expected thunderstorms as aided by the conjunction of Moon with malefics on the Garbottam dates would have given the clues on the direction of the thundershowers. Here the overall picture of Eastern direction as indicated by Poosam / Pushya star when Mercury was crossing Venus (on these dates) is not that much valid as the SW- NE direction indicated by the failed Garbottam dates. 

Another insight is about the duration of Garbottam. In the dates mentioned in the chart they did not last long, say, not more than half an hour. On some days it was for a few minutes only. The result is that the rainfall also was for a short duration in the current period of thundershowers in my place of observation. 

UPDATE on 19th July 2016.

It did rain after midnight of 18th in my place of observation. It tallied with Garbottam observation which was mild on the corresponding date in January. 

18th- 19th July was a test case as the corresponding date (January 8th) saw planetary war between Saturn and Venus in Scorpio. The rule is planetary war would mar rains, but it was falsified. So I have re-interpret this as not a planetary war. 

The rationale is that the planet involved is Venus, a benefic and a planet that gives rains when it crosses another planet say, Mercury. Venus and Mercury are rain related planets. Moreover Venus is a friend of Saturn as per astrology. So when two friends meet with one of them being a soft benefic like Venus, we must interpret it not as a planetary war. That is the insight from the current observation.

Usually Mars is associated with planetary war. Mars is an army man in astrology and any planet coming near it within one degree is said to suffer defeat. Therefore in future observation or in analysis of past records, the kinds of planets must be assessed to judge planetary war.  

UPDATE on 30th July 2016.

Heavy rains accompanied with floods reported in Assam and Bihar. 
Report here:-

These regions come under the regions mentioned above in the article.

As far as Chennai is concerned, there was cloudiness and / or mild rains in the days mentioned in the Garbottam chart. On 30th July (today) it must have been wet throughout the day as per the Garbottam of the related day in January. But it was cloudy today right from sunrise and it rained at night around 8 PM.

One insight from this is that what was observed as Garbottam was right, but its ability to give rains must have depended on 3/5 features whereas in the notings so far, only 2/5 features were present.

Another insight is that the Garbottam had lasted for 10 minutes to half an hour in most cases. Accordingly this reduces the chance of rainfall. Only when the garbottam has lasted long for more than an hour, it could have an  impact.

Yet another feature is that presently Saturn in retrogression in Anusha star which causes shattering away of clouds by winds. That is what is exactly happening in Chennai. But the same seems to cause stormy showers in other places in TN and Bangalore where the rainfall is unleashed with the accompaniment of winds. Perhaps the Garbottam in those places were stronger than in Chennai.

The presently occurring ativrishti yoga of (1) closeness of Venus and Mercury (2) Venus and Mercury in the western sky (3) Sun, Saturn and Mars and watery signs etc are good for good rains in North India in particular (watery signs indicate North) and the places mentioned in the above article.


Srikanth said...

Thanks for the post Mam, once again extremely detailed and meticulous as usual. Irrespective of whether you are getting the entire thing right or wrong, you have set a perfect platform for taking this up more intensively in the years to come

jayasree said...

Added an update today (18th July) at the end of the above article, on the thundershowers experienced in Chennai.