Thursday, June 1, 2017

Rainfall Check – 4 (June 2017)

Previous articles:-

As we enter the month of June, two distinct events have just happened. One is the formation of Cyclone Mora that formed on 28th May in SE Bay and quickly transformed into a super cyclone and made landfall in Bangladesh on the morning of 31st May.

The 2nd event is the declaration by IMD that the South West Monsoon has formally set in on 30th May 2017.

The date of formation of cyclone Mora has a significant planetary connection. On 27-28th May, Mars entered Gemini, only to come in exact opposition of Saturn in Sagittarius. Both Mars and Saturn were in 1 degree – that is, in exact opposition with one of them rising and the other setting at the exact moment in the sky. This simultaneous rising and setting of two planets is strong rainfall support yoga. Almost at the same time on the morning of 27th May, Moon and Mars entered Gemini together. Moon was with Mars in Gemini and then stayed in watery sign Cancer during the period of genesis and realisation of rains by this cyclone.

The cyclone’s genesis started when Mars entered the previous degree of deep conjunction with Saturn. It intensified into a cyclone when it was in exact conjunction with Saturn at 1 degree, 39 minutes in the morning of 29th May and made landfall as Mars crossed 1 degree after deep conjunction with Saturn.

The above combination of opposition between these malefics is a rainfall spoiler as well.
Cyclone Mora showed that when the exact opposition comes by way of one planet rising and another setting, it does cause a trigger factor leading to very heavy rainfall. The swiftness and intensity of cyclone Mora for such a short duration is made out from this kind of rare opposition.

We are going to see two more exact conjunctions this month. One will be on 15th June when Sun comes in exact opposition to Saturn.

The other will be on 19th June when Mercury comes in exact opposition to Saturn. On both these dates, one will be rising while the other will be setting the sky at the same time.
We have to see whether this 
The 2nd event is the onset of SWM on 30th May.

On 30th May, Venus was in the last degree of Pisces and entered Aries on 31st May. Entry of Venus or Mercury into the next sign in the rainy season marks a trigger to rainfall. In addition to this, Venus, Mercury and Moon were in watery Navamsas on this date. Most importantly Venus and Mercury happened to be present in the same Rasi with no planet in between them. The closeness between them continuing till 21st June also helps in rainfall from this trigger.  

Rainfall support yogas in June 2017.

(1) Venus – Mercury closeness.

Right from April 20th onwards, pre-monsoon thunderstorms had been giving rains in NE India and parts of interior South India. The stars traversed by Venus and Mercury during this period signify NE section of India (Revathi, Aswini and Bharani).

However the gap between Venus and Mercury keeps increasing in June from 25 degrees on 1st June to 55 degrees on 30th June. This is a cause of concern as increasing gap reduces rainfall.

(2) Sun in Vayu Nadi.

When Sun moves across Rohini it is said to be in Vayu nadi. This signifies rainfall accompanied with gusty winds. This started on 25th May and is going to last till 8th June. Rohini signifies central portions, and with Sun in Taurus (southern direction), the interior parts of Peninsular India are likely to get rainfall during this period.

(3) Mars comes out of Dahana Nadi.

The movement of Mars in the star Mrigasheersha is called Dahana Nadi. It causes intense heat. This started on May 16th and is going to end on the night of 5th June. This results in reduction in temperature. Though this is not a rainfall yoga, the reduction in heat foretells presence of cooling features.

(4) Mercury enters combustion.

Mercury enters combustion when it is 14 degrees behind the Sun. The day of combustion is usually marked with heavy rainfall or sudden rainfall. Rainfall would usually occur throughout the combustion period in the rainy season provided other rainfall yogas are also present. This combustion starts on 9th June and ends on 4th July. Both these dates are important for rainfall and the entire duration is likely to see rainfall. The signs involved are south and west. This means South India and west India stand to benefit by rains.

(5) Sun in exact opposition to Saturn on 15th June.

This causes the simultaneous rising and setting of Sun and Saturn. This happens on 15th June. At that time Moon will be in same degrees in trinal house to Sun and Mars. Sun, Mars and Saturn will be in Kendra position to one another (in alternating / odd signs to each other) while Moon will be in rainfall causing Dhanishta on that day, crossing Ketu. Moon will be in 9th house from Sun and Mars on that day. This is a kind of manifestation of rainfall yoga involving Sun, Mars and Saturn with Moon coming in trinal position to them. This month we will be checking whether this combination works. The location is west.

Moon will be moving across stars that signify North West during the period before and after 15th June. This might signify Northern part of west coast of India, i.e., Maharashtra.

(6) Mercury in exact opposition to Saturn on 19th June.

Mercury and Saturn will be at 0 degrees of Gemini and Sagittarius respectively on 19th June. This would see Mercury setting and Saturn rising at the exact time. At that time Moon will be in Pisces, the watery sign. This is supposed to cause good rainfall. The location is North, going by the location of Moon.

(7) Mercury enters Sowmya Nadi.

Mercury’s sojourn in the star Arudra is known as Sowmya Nadi. It is a mixed bag of rains and windiness. By the star Arudra, South eastern section of India is indicated. The duration of this sojourn is from 21st June to 27th June.

Rainfall spoiling yogas in June.

(1) The increasing gap between Venus and Mercury.

In the past, triggers for intense and widespread rainfall were seen to coincide with the conjunction of Venus and Mercury. The closer they are to each other, better for rainfall. This year they are at considerable distance to each other though for most part of June there is no other planet in between them to spoil closeness.

They begin with a gap of 25 degrees on the 1st of June. But with each passing day, the gap keeps increasing. On 20th June, the gap reaches 43 degrees which was the distance that heralded retreat of SWM in 2016.

The gap keeps growing even after that and reaches 66 degrees by 30th June. Throughout July this gap is maintained or increased. Only in mid August the gap starts getting reduced when they move towards each other.

This phenomenon of huge gap between them happening in the beginning of SWM is a great dampener for a good season of rainfall. The scenario in June and July would show us how far this feature is reliable.

(2) Mercury crosses Sun on 21st June.

Usually when Mercury or Venus crosses the Sun in the rainy season it will cause good rainfall provided strong rainfall yogas are present. The only rainfall yoga during this time is closeness between Mercury and Venus. But that is also spoiled by increasing gap between them and sun coming in between them.

(3) Mars in the lead of all planets.

This is another feature that can reduce rainfall. This gets rectified only in July when Sun crosses Mars on 29th July. 

Table of rainfall events in June 2017.

If any
June 1
Venus- Mercury in same sign
East, NE India,
Interior Peninsular India
Mars in forefront.
June  3
Mercury enters next sign, joins Sun.
Trigger to rainfall.
West and West central India
June 5
Mars comes out of Dahana Nadi
Reduction in heat wave conditions.
South and Central India
June 8

Sun comes out of Vayu Nadi
End of thunderstorm phase.
South India

June 9
Mercury enters combustion
Sudden trigger to rainfall.

Probability of a meteorological event.  
Western parts on India
June 15
Sun enters Gemini to join Mars.

Comes in exact opposition to Saturn.

Western parts of India
June 15 to 20th June
Sun and Mars in opposition to Saturn.

Moon in favourable signs of rainfall
West and North India
June 18-19
Mercury enters next sign.

Exact opposition to Saturn.

Moon in watery sign
West and South India
June 20
Saturn enters Scorpio.

Opposition with Mars, Sun and Mercury ends
Reduction in rainfall
West India
June 21
Mercury crosses Sun.

Venus- Mercury closeness ends.
After isolated spells, a lull begins.

Dry conditions start.
West India.

June 21 to June 27
Mercury enters Sowmya Nadi (Arudra)

Saturn, Mars and Sun in watery navamsa
Rainfall accompanied with winds

South east India.

Rainfall scenario for Chennai.

Chennai is going to see good rainfall between 25th June and 30th June. This is ascertained from Local Garbottam experienced in Chennai.

The Margazhi Garbottam showed that there will be moderate rains in the last week of June.

The Garbottam chart for Chennai (particularly my place of observation) is given below.

Inference from the above chart:-

Conjunction of Moon with a malefic happened thrice during the corresponding Garbottam observation period. When Moon and Sun are conjunct with a malefic on a day of  Garbottam features, that indicates rainfall from cyclone in the rainfall realisation period. The conjunction that happened around 25th Dec 2016 was not accompanied with Garbottam features in Chennai. So rainfall is ruled out during the corresponding dates in June 2017.

The 2nd conjunction was with Mars and Ketu. Even then local Garbottam was very less. There is no trigger factor in the corresponding period in June 2017.

The 3rd conjunction was with Rahu. This coincided with the time of Pongal in Tamilnadu. It was cloudy in Chennai during and after Pongal in Jan 2017. This was a good Garbottam feature. The conjunction with Rahu indicates a meteorological development in the form of a cyclone or some activity on the rainfall realisation period.

The above picture shows the cloud cover on 19th January 2016 at 1 PM (taken from the website of Dundee). One can find the entire east coast of Tamilnadu and parts of Andhra experiencing good Garbottam. The corresponding date of rainfall is midnight of 29th June 2017. 

However those places that received rainfall on 19th Jan / 20th Jan would not get rainfall on the impact date of 29th / 30th June. Chennai did not get rainfall at that time, so there is better chance to get benefited by the cloud cover which served as a good Garbottam feature then.

The next day also saw a far better cloud movement over coastal Tamilnadu including Chennai.

The above picture was taken at 11.30 AM on 20th Jan 2017. Chennai was particularly under the cloud cover.

By 3-30 PM on the same day, the clouds spread over larger area of the coast and interior Peninsular India. (Pic below)

The corresponding date of rainfall is on the night of 30th June 2017.

The area covered by clouds show a possible formation of a system in the Bay corresponding to the conjunction of Moon with Rahu on dates 24, 25 and 26th of June. But there is absence of a trigger feature by planets around that time in June.

This makes me think that rainfall would be experienced from thunder storms coming from the Western direction. This is based on a feature of Garbottam that rainfall would come from the opposite direction of cloud movement on Garbottam date. On 29th and 30th Jan, cloud movement was from east. Therefore rainfall would be from the western direction. 

These two dates 29th and 30th June have strong Garbottam compared to previous dates in June. My notes show that there was good cool breeze and aquatic shaped clouds on the corresponding Garbottam dates. 

 If it really turns out that good rainfall is experienced on these dates, then the concept of Garbottam stands very much vindicated. 


Narayan TT said...

Fantastic! The garbottam predictions seems to work for Chennai looking at rains on 5th and 6th June. It is good to atleast hear that Chennai will have good rains during June. Expecting some good rains in Jul / Aug as well. Coming to NEM, there were plenty of dates in April / May with clouds covering Chennai. With this and if planetary combinations support can Chennai expect an above average NEM as well?

jayasree said...

Yesterday's (7th June) overcast sky coincides with Deepavali day and indicates rain on Deepavali night. The upcoming days are crucial for NEM as they correspond to Karthigai. As per planetary combinations, late NEM rains are there for Chennai. Between now and Karthigai, 2 or 3 brief periods of rainfall only as per local Garbottam for Chennai.

Narayan TT said...

Thanks madam. When you say "period" what does it indicate? Also when you say "rainfall" during the period can the quantity be predicted like light, moderate or heavy?

jayasree said...

The period means from now (Vaikasi end) to Karthigai, 2 or 3 spells only. The intensity of rains can be roughly predicted from the strength and duration of the Garbottam. I am yet to tabulate the garbottam for other months. Now I have jotted down as notes in my diary as and when I notice Garbottam. When I tabulate them as I have done for June in the above article, we will know the dates that can see rains. I will be posting on the 1st of every month the details of that month's rainfall prospects as shown by Garbottam in the corresponding period.

I am still learning a lot from this Garbottam based prediction. This is the 2nd year of my observation based prediction. The learning I got from yesterday's climate is that mere overcast sky is not garbottam - atleast locally. Dark clouds must swim across the sky and hide the sun. To explain this, I mentioned moderate rains for yesterday night in the table. The corresponding date was 27th Dec 2016. It was overcast on that date from 2 PM onwards. When I checked the satellite picture, it showed a massive cloud patch moving over Tamilnadu covering Chennai also. I even took a screen shot of those satellite images.

My visible observation showed overcast sky (as it was yesterday and today) but no dark patches of clouds crossing a hot sun. The shapes of the clouds also matter. They must have aquatic shapes. That was also missing on 27th Dec 2016. They were missing yesterday and today also.

As per 27th Dec cloud cover, I expected rains after 2 AM yesterday night. But it did not happen. This must be because of absence of other 2 crucial features of clouds on 27th. Like this I am learning something new.

But the rainfall I expect on 29th and 30th June are different. The satellite pics show thick cloud movement over Chennai and most of TN. My visual observation records also show that aquatic shaped clouds were visible on the corresponding date and sun was often hidden then. I hope it rains well on those days.

On 24, 25 and 26th June there is a possibility of formation of a system in the Bay as shown by Moon joining malefics in the corresponding period in the past. If Chennai gets rains in the last week of June from that system, it vindicates another feature I mentioned, that of SWM getting into a lull on June 21st. We will wait and see.

Narayan TT said...

Rain has been playing a very good hide and seek for the past couple of weeks. How are the rains going to be for Chennai from July to Dec 2017? Will it be enough to come out of the severe water crisis? or is Chennai destined to have a bad patch this year?

jayasree said...

It is raining now in most places of Chennai. My Garbottam table also says this. Based on local Garbottam so far, rains are deficient for Chennai. One more month is there for observation. Let us wait and see. As per planetary combinations late rains in December is indicated for Chennai.

Water scarcity is bound to be there in the next two months as lull period is indicated by the gap between Mercury and Venus. The lull continues till 27th August.

I have not yet studied day to day rainfall scenario for July. I will do it in the last couple of days of June and post it on July.

Aravindan M.S. said...

FYI, Two years back, 2015 karthigai month, we had seen deadly rain & floods in chennai.
And last year 2016 same karthigai month, we had seen vardah cyclone..
Does these incidents try to convey us that some massive disaster will happen in near future???

jayasree said...

First of all, let rains come. So far local garbottam had not been favourable.