Thursday, November 2, 2017

Rainfall check - 8 (NEM - Nov-Dec 2017)

Previous articles:-

This blog is posted at a time Southern India is receiving good rains and Chennai at the verge of fear of a repeat of NEM 2015. The SWM season was good for Chennai in particular, receiving rains from Kaalamegha. The current year being Kaalamegha and the Meghadhipati being Mercury, sudden formation of dark thunderclouds happened on many days during the day-time giving some fleeting moments of sudden rains. In the NEM season, the following are the rainfall support features.

Rainfall-support features:

1. Venus in the eastern sky before dawn transiting the stars Magha, Purva phalguni, Uttra Phalguni, Hasta and Chitra between September 15th and November 8th. The following was written on Sep 1st (here)


2. Combustion of Mercury for a prolonged period between 22nd September and 31st October. The following was written on Sep 1st.


The next combustion dates are between 6th December and 18th December, 2017. This period will be wet while the start and end dates would see heavy rainfall.

3. Combustion of Venus between 6th December 2017 and 10 February 2018. Like Mercury, when Venus enters combustion, there will be heavy rains on that date and rainfall would continue during the combustion period. If the combustion period falls in winter season, there would fog or snow or dip in temperature depending on the place. There are enough indications including this feature for colder winter and snowfall in high latitudes in 2017-18.

4. Venus – Jupiter conjunction between 3rd November and 26th November. This ensures good rainfall.

5. Mars and Saturn in alternate signs (7th and 9th) from the moon there will be heavy rainfall. On 1st and 2nd December, this combination occurs.  Again from 16th December onwards, Mars, Saturn and Sun are going to be in alternate signs. This feature was found during floods in the past.

6. Sun in Vayu Nadi between 23rd October and 6th November. This causes rainfall combined with winds.

7. Mercury- Venus closeness begins on 13th December and lasts till 9th January 2018. This is a strong rainfall supportive feature.


Rainfall spoiling features:

1. Mars in Dahana Nadi between 19th November and 10th December. This would cause dry weather.

2. Saturn in front of all planets until 6th December.


Inference:

Taking the last feature first, Saturn in front of all planets would cause dry weather. Similarly Mars in front of all planets would cause dry weather. The near drought conditions since  August 2016 till July this year could be attributed to Mars moving in front of all the planets. This year Saturn was in the lead but it was not a bad spoiler of rains like Mars was. Reasons could be that Mars (fiery planet) in the front is more damaging than Saturn in the front. Second, there were rainfall support features this year but they were almost absent last year when Mars was in the forefront. So a combined effect seems to play a role in bringing rainfall.

This season (NEM) Venus in the east in the 5 stars had turned to be a first rate supporter of rainfall.  Till now I was of the opinion that Mercury- Venus closeness was a pre-condition for good rainfall. Though that works unmistakably in giving rainfall, Venus’s transit in those 5 stars proved to be a more effective feature for rainfall even in the absence of Venus- Mercury closeness.

This feature is anyway needed to be watched in upcoming years, as a reversal of the direction (in west) in the same stars would cause drought!

November 2017

In November Venus Jupiter combination is a major contributor for rainfall (between 3rd and 26th November), but Mars is likely to play spoilsport almost during the same time when it transits Dahana Nadi between 19th Nov and 10th Dec.

Looking at the record of Solar / Margazhi Garbottam observed in Dec 2016 – Jan 2017, (here), dry weather is indicated after 8th November and revival from December in tune with beginning of Mercury – Venus closeness. The relevant part of the chart is shown below. The last 2 columns indicate rainfall realisation periods.



December 2017:

December looks like a clean sweep for Mercury- Venus closeness on the one hand while Saturn and Mars transit alternate signs could do a supportive role. Yet another support comes from Venus entering combustion. There is only one spoiler with Mars transiting Dahana nadi but that ends on 10th December. Thereafter, Mercury- Venus closeness begins. So December seems to be wetter than November.

Now the big question – will Chennai see a repeat of 2015?

Till 8th November there will be rains due to the transit of Venus. This  would continue due to conjunction of Venus with Jupiter till 26th November.  But if Mars plays a spoilsport in Dahana nadi (between 19th Nov and 10th Dec), there will be a respite from rainfall. Again rainfall starts from 13th December and continues. The gap of nearly 20 days (Mars in Dahana nadi) can go a long way in averting a disastrous flood for Chennai even if rainfall picks up after 13th December. So another period to test an astrological feature (Mars in Dahana nadi) in the coming days!

However with 3 strong rainfall support features happening in December with no spoilers around, I am afraid we may have to be well prepared for woeful times. (1) Mercury- Venus closeness, (2) both Mercury and Venus entering combustion and (3) importantly Saturn, Sun and Mars coming in alternating signs are all plentiful rainfall features with the last one found to be present during floods in the past.

Split-up details can be found in the table below:

1
October 31
Mercury comes out of combustion.
Spurt in rainfall in South West India / SW Tamilnadu.
2
November 3
Venus enters next sign to join Jupiter.

Conjunction of Venus- Jupiter begins.

Spurt in rainfall in South India.
3
Till November 8
Venus in Chitra
Rainfall in South India.
4
November 13, 14
Venus crosses Jupiter.
Some meteorological event in the South (Bay).
5
November 19
Mars enters Chitra (Dahana Nadi)
Reduction in rainfall in S.India.
6
November 26
Venus enters next sign
Spurt in rainfall in S.India.
7
December 3
Mercury begins retrogression.

Saturn and Mars in alternate signs with  Moon in trinal signs to them.
Some meteorological event in South (Bay) Rainfall.
8
December 6
Mercury begins combustion.

Venus begins combustion.
Spurt in rainfall as both these planets begin combustion at the same time.

Rainfall in SW Tamilnadu, South India.

9
December 10
Mars comes out of Dahana Nadi
Dry weather ends.

10
December 13
Mercury- Venus closeness begins
Some meteorological event. North part of east coast will get rains.
11
December 15
Venus crosses Mercury in forward motion.
Spurt in rainfall in South India / TN.
12
December 16
Sun enters next sign to join with Saturn.

Saturn, Sun and Mars in alternate signs. Continues till season ends.
Heavy rainfall period in east coast, south west Tamilnadu.
13
December 18
Mercury comes out of combustion
Heavy rainfall in North and SW TN/ SW India.
14
December 28, 29, 30
Saturn, Sun and Mars in alternate signs with Moon in trinal signs.
Heavy rainfall in SW Tamilnadu.  


32 comments:

Aravindan M.S. said...

Mam,
Thanks a lot for your much needed & timely post.

My doubt is, Usually In chennai, rainy season would come to an end by karthigai end (December 15th) & from margazhi we used to see foggy & colder days.

This is what we are experiencing in the past..

But you have quoted several rainy & meteorological events for margazhi month this year for chennai & North TN..

So will it happen as u predicted??

jayasree said...

I agree with you Mr Aravindan.

Last year Vardah (Dec 12) made all the difference to the rainfall / water scenario of Chennai. Last year, if you look at my old blogs, local Garbottam supported 2 more rains in December 2016, one around Christmas and one later, but those days saw cloudy weather and no rainfall. But it rained in south TN then. How to justify the Garbottam that didn’t give rainfall?

I think it needs nearly 9 years of observation to get a reliable answer for questions like this. At the moment, based on 2 years of observation, I attribute the rainfall to powerful planetary combinations. December planetary combinations are more powerful than November combinations. That is what I tweeted and had shown in the last chart in the above blog. That chart gives the places of rainfall. I could have been more explicit in writing that the regions that come repeatedly in the last column would face woeful times.

For Chennai, the respite from Mars in Dahana nadi would reduce the prospect of a flood. I didn’t produce the Garbottam charts for Chennai in the blog. The reason is there are contradictions and not all (margazhi Garbottam, local Garbottam and planetary) matched. Moreover with adhik masa nearing, we are seeing 2 sets of dates for a given date of Garbottam. I found them giving rainfall in both or in one of the dates in the past months. This makes me wonder whether the season before adhik masa would be bountiful.

Local Garbottam in Chennai supports rainfall in December. Dates are given below:

Good Garbottam dates:

July 6 = Dec 15
July 14 = Dec 23 (or Nov 23)
July 15 = Dec 24 (or Nov 24)
July 16 = Dec 25 (or Nov 25)
July 18 = Dec 27 & 28
July 19 = Dec 29

Even if we are skipping the overlapping dates with Nov, the last 2 dates show only the dates of December in the fag end of the month. These dates correspond with the last row in the table in the blog. (Sun, Saturn and Mars in alternate signs with Moon coming in trinal position). Keeping my fingers crossed.

vasu devan said...

Mam, do u mean that there will be repeat of 2015 in december? We stay in ground floor at korattur, chennai. We were also affected by 2015 floods. Please give me a soothing reply as we are scared. Also they talk about bbc 50 cm rainfall and about tsunami before dec 31. I hope they are only rumours. Please clarify mam. With regards

jayasree said...

Dear Mr Vasudevan. In my analysis the number of days of rainfall for Chennai are limited in December. If there are no rains between Nov 19th and Dec 10th, rest assured that Chennai won't be flooded in December. However my analysis shows regular rains in South and South west Tamilnadu in December.

jayasree said...

The rainfall dates in November to Chennai as per local garbottam are 2nd -5th, 13th -15th and 25th- 29th. If this turns out to be true, I don't think Chennai faces 2015 like floods.

Aravindan M.S. said...

Thanks a lot for your valuable reply mam..

I think if raining happens in this speed, imagine we have another 40 days left which is enough to chennai get submerged in floods.
Lakes level & Groundwater level are rising fastly..
Let's see..fingers crossed..

jayasree said...

@ Aravindan M S.

Chennai garbottam supports 2 more spells in Nov as I wrote in the comment above. At the same time Martian transit between 19th Nov to 10th Dec must act as a spoiler. If so, the last spell of Nov would be suppressed. That is a main feature I am looking forward for checking. If that happens i think Dec rains for Chennai would not pose a problem. Dec rains favour SW TN.

sriramlion said...

Till now your forecast was accurate..Though chennai got 700mm of rains,other interiors and some south tn districts are in large deficit..when will the monsoon revive?..Any natural disaster for tn(especially chennai) this december? As 2015 & 2016 december had floods and cyclones..

jayasree said...

@ sriramlion,

This year it rained during the day time most times. That is a tricky issue to predict as that is related to watching garbottam at night. Perhaps we can expect sudden rainfall at daytime in Kalamegha years. Sounding this as a caution, I request you to check the dates given in the table and in the comment section for Chennai.

For chennai, day time garbottam support dates for December are 15th and from 23rd onwards. But the planetary features being strong in December, I expect rainfall mostly in South and South west TN. Check the table for dates and places. The revival of NEM starts on 13th Dec 2017 as per the planetary combinations and it shows north parts of east coast, meaning Chennai and AP etc. Chennai garbottam showing rainfall on 15th, I expect a system forming around 13th and giving rainfall around 15th to Chennai. The 2nd half of Dec has flood related combinations which indicate South and SW TN and not Chennai. If this fructifies, the deficit regions in the south would be benefited.

In the immediate future, the transit of Mars in Dahana nadi between 19th Nov and 10th Dec would reduce overall rainfall in India.Last year this feature (of transits indicating dry spell) was repeated often in NEM season. This year this is the first time this feature comes and this is the only such feature occurring this year. So we will wait and watch whether it repeats.

sriramlion said...

From nov 26th,yu have mentioned spurt in rainfall in south india..That looks happening now..most of the models expecting rains from ter..Meaningfull rains from month end..Though it appears south tn will get the major share..Chennai also needs rainfall as lakes are only 40% filled..Let the strong planetary combinations overcome the effect of dahana nadi..

jayasree said...

@ sriramlion

Local garbottam for Chennai favours rainfall from Nov 25th to 29th - written in a comment above (Nov 2nd dated). As you say we have to see which one is powerful - Mars in Dahana nadi or local garbottam and planetary combination.

sriramlion said...

Congragulations maam..your predictions were spot on this year..Pl visit chennairains blog..where i have added your FORECAST VS ACTUAL table..Though not in detail..

jayasree said...

Thanks Mr Sriram for interfacing with scientific features. This is most desired by me as a way of verification. Anyway the test lies in December as there are strong rainfall features as per astrology. If that comes out true, I will be sure about my interpretation. Astrology is true but it all depends on how we understand it and interpret it.

sriramlion said...

Almost most of the models also expect a good december for south india..so high probability for your forecast to come true..

jayasree said...

That's good news- both for me & the country👍

Natarajan Ramani said...

pls inform december la flood irruka

Natarajan Ramani said...

heavy rain or cyclone is it poissible
date pls

Natarajan Ramani said...

chennai

jayasree said...

@ Natarajan Ramani.

Everything written above.
For Chennai the rainfall dates (local Garbottam) are around 15th Dec and around Christmas till the end of the month. Though flood causing indications start from 16th Dec, the number of spells for Chennai are less compared to those to be experienced in South and SW Tamilandu. If the next spell of major rainfall comes around 15th, I don't think there will be floods in Chennai. Whereas every spell in Dec is going to happen in South and SW TN / India increasing the chances of flooding in those locations.

sriramlion said...

Maam yu have mentioned some meterological event on DEC 3rd,that is almost on the cards..but on DEC 6th yu have mentioned spurt in rainfall..Which regions will benefit from this..As there is a system tracking towards TN/AP,Can yu tell what are the chances for it to impact TN??

jayasree said...

@ sriramlion,

Venus and mercury - the two rainfall related planets entering combustion on the same day is related to sudden spurt in rainfall and flash floods. In the past it had happened so.

Now for the places impacted:
Venus in Anusha > SW parts of India. In NEM season this could be SW TN or SW part of South India.

Mercury in Moola > This covers western division. So once again we interpret it to refer to West TN and west of S.India (Kerala?)

Looking at the signs:
Venus in Scorpio > direction is North.
Mercury in Sagittarius > direction is East.

Combining these two in NEM season, we can interpret it as North, East and NE part of South India.
Usually north was associated with regions of north TN and north of TN. So AP is in line and also some NE parts of the Bay.

Combining all the above, I think South and South West India gets repeated more and so had mentioned them only in the table.

There was no local garbottam for Chennai for 6th and around 6th of December. We have to wait and watch which of these works.

Vivek Jayaram said...

Hi Mam, Thanks for this post. How about Coimbatore & Pollachi regions. We are facing severe drought situation for some years

karthik kalakodimi said...

When I see some sudden rains and sudden miss for rains in Chennai, I remember your post immediately. When you posted in twitter for NEM2017 predictions, I took it lightly but when things are happening, I was wondered and checked your post again and read it. There are lot of confusions about the meteorological event which is going on currently. To be frank, Chennai doesn't get proper rain to enjoy it. Most of the times its Sunny and as you mentioned there will be dry period between 29th nov to 10th Dec. Looks like its happening (happened until now with rain spoilers in between).
Can you please tell whether any rain possible between 6th Dec to end of this weekend (10th Dec) this answer will help many Chennai people to avoid Panic about the current system (atleast for me) with lot of buzz and rumors tied with it.

sriramlion said...

Maam..now the situation has totally changed..with sun moving to southern hemisphere,most of the models now showing systems below equator/southern hemisphere..Tats actually looks like end of monsoon for chennai and north coastal tn..Yu are the one giving encouraging signs now..i remember the old phrase by our ancestors "karthigai ku pin mazhai illai karananu ku pin kodai illai"..For the last 2years,ter were no rains after karthigai deepam..This time also things looking like tat..

jayasree said...

Wait. Rainfall dates of december are yet to be crossed☺ Dec combinations are something like how conditions will be in peak monsoon season. I highlighted 3 major combinations in the article. So let's wait. On the other hand the exciting revelation is Ockhi giving rainfall to South west india-proper! Tomorrow's (6th Dec) combustion begin time (started today itsef) of Venus & mercury must give rainfall to west & SW of India. As the season is NEM I wrote W& SW of S India. Even mentioned Kerala in the previous comment. As per Varahamihira the arc covering Gujarat, Maharashtra up to North coastal kanara form SW part of India. With local garbottam in favour, these regions are benefiting from combust-begin period of Venus & mercury.

jayasree said...

I do expect reasonable rainfall for the regions you mentioned in December.

jayasree said...

From 6th Dec onwards generally wet conditions but no flood like situations. For Chennai it is moderate to subdued. Local garbottam for Chennai supports rainfall around 15th dec.

Sathish Krishnagiri said...

Hi mam,

Any possible that Chennai lakes getting filled?

RS said...

Namaskaram Madam,
I am Govindan, Porur, Chennai.
As per your prediction and local garbottam rain may hit Chennai from Dec13 to Dec16
like in the year decemeber 2015.

jayasree said...

Mr Govindan. Thanks for your input. Anxiously waiting for signals to tally with my prediction☺

karthik kalakodimi said...

Hello Madam,

Rainfall for Chennai is not good as we expect for December. Is there any chance to get rain in January for Chennai ?

jayasree said...

@ karthik kalakodimi

Please read my recent post here: https://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2017/12/solar-margazhi-garbottam-is-basis-for.html