First day of Garbottam ended around 5 PM on 30th December 2015.
I thought of writing down the observation of
Garbottam days and check with corresponding days of future along with other
astrological factors to arrive at a better understanding of prediction of
rainfall.
The following was my observation done at a place in
the suburb of Chennai. The impact is valid from 21st June to 5th
July 2016.
The 5 factors
(1) Wind:- Still air at
the time of beginning of Garbottam at 5 PM on 29th Dec, 2015. Cool
breeze was felt in the morning. Not very windy in general.
Result:- Not a strong factor for rainfall from 21st
June to 5th July in this place of observation. However the cool
breeze in the morning shows scattered rain or drizzles at night in that period.
(2) Rain:- Nil.
Result:- Does not indicate rains in the said period.
(3) Lightening:-
Nil.
Result:- Does
not indicate rains in the said period.
(4) Thunder:-
Nil.
Result:- Does not indicate rains in the said period.
(5) Clouds:- Cloudless at
the beginning of Garbottam. Small groups of scattered clouds till midnight. No
cloud formation during the day time too.
Result:- Does not indicate rains in the said period.
Interpretation:-
If all the 5 factors are present, heavy rainfall
would occur in the said period. But only one feature was present in lesser
magnitude. This works out to less than one third of the rainfall if we reduce
the optimum rainfall by a quarter for the absence of each factor. We have to
see whether this works out to 30% or less of the usual rainfall for this
period.
3-some features:-
(1) Terrestrial :- Good.
(2) Atmospheric :- Of the 12 features noted in my
blog on Garbottam,
(1) gentle breeze was there in the morning. (2) Sun encircled with bright halo,
but no halo around Moon.
(3) Planetary:- (1) Planets and stars appeared as
clear, bright discs. Arudra (Betelgeuse) was blood red which was its original
colour. (2) Sun was red at sun set. (3) Except Jupiter all the other planets
were in Southern declinations.
Interpretation:-
Except red Sun and clear stars, other features were
absent. Planets in southern declination are not good indicators for rainfall. Less
than average rainfall for the said period in the place of observation is indicated.
Day 1 of Garbottam indicates Arudra
Pravesham. Therefore it is imperative to check the nature of
Arudra Pravesham.
Arudra Pravesham is the entry of the Sun in Arudra
star in the next season (2016). This entry is an important indicator for
general rainfall nature of the season. The day of the entry, the thithi, yoga
and karana at that time, the lagna of the entry time, the kala (day or night)
and the location of the moon at that time are noted to judge the nature of the
rainfall season that comes after the entry. The details of how to see them are
given in my blog on
solar ingress.
The prediction based on Arudra Pravesham is important
as it was noted in my blogs earlier. In one of my
earlier blogs, I commented about the nature of Arudra Pravesham of Jaya
varushm for the Monsoon season of 2014. It is reproduced below.
The Arudra Pravesha on 22nd June 2014,
10-35 AM happened in the fiery Leo lagna with Moon in fiery sign. The yoga was unfavourable
Atiganda. The time of the day also was unfavourable as it was day time. Though
other factors were favourable, the important ones namely lagna, moon sign and
kaala were unfavourable and were associated with heat. Though the year Megha was
Vaayu and Raja and Mantri (of the Nava nayaks of Solar ingress in Mesha) were favourable,
the Arudra Pravesha lagna and other features being unfavourable, there was a
kind of tug of war between the Mesha ingress features and Arudra ingress
features. Based on other features, I went with indicators of Arudra ingress and
expected lack of rains.
That year (2014) indeed experienced less rainfall.
The IMD report confirmed this. The abstract of it is reproduced below.
The report refers to ‘border
line El Nino’ for this deficient rainfall. The El Nino has an explanation in astrology is what I wish
to state.
The deficit of 2014 season can be explained by other
astrological factors too, which I would do later. (In fact I am working on all
the reports of IMD in its website, to arrive at a better understanding from astrological
view point.)
For the upcoming season, the Arudra Pravesham is
discussed below.
The
upcoming year’s Arudra Pravesham is not all that good and not very bad. Sun
enters Arudra on 21st June 2016 at 11 PM in the night.
The day is Tuesday (not good)
The thithi is Krishna Dwitheeya (good)
The nakshatra is Purvashada (very good)
The nakshatra is Purvashada (very good)
The Yoga is Brahma yoga (not good)
The Karana is Taitula karana (good)
The lagna is Kumba lagna (not good)
The Kala is and night time nearing mid night (good).
At that time Moon will be in Sagittarius (not good)
but in the watery star Pooradam (Purvashada) (Very good).
Moon’s position, the star Purvashada and kaala (night time) are powerful
enough to cause good rains, though the Meghadhipathi (among Nava nayakas) is Mars and the day of
entry is Mars. This ensures above normal rainfall for
the whole season of 2016 upto December.
Though, the Arudra Pravesham period may not experience
good rains in my place of observation, it would rain on the path of the SW
monsoon by more than average.
In this context, the Megha is Neela Megha which gives mixed rainfall – with more
rains in one place and deficient rains in another. Garbottam observation would indicate
this trend in different places.
Another important feature we must note is the position of planets at the time of Arudra Pravesham and
the rainy season in general. The study of IMD reports gives a number of clues on
what to look for and how the rainfall yogas (Anavrishti and Ativrishti) play a
role. I will write them one by one in future blogs.
For the current topic, on the day of Arudra Pravesha
in 2016, Venus is conjunct with Sun and is combust. Venus is forward to Sun and
Mercury is behind the Sun. Venus and Sun will be in Arudra while Moon will be
opposite to them in Pooradam. This is ideal for good
rainfall.
Generally Venus in combustion causes good rainfall.
The combustion starts 10 degrees before Sun and ends at 10 degrees after Venus
crosses the Sun. On April 29th 2016,
Venus enters into combustion while Mercury is retrograde in the front of Sun.
All the three, Sun, Venus and Mercury are in the same sign which is Aries. This
gives thunderstorms or pre-monsoon rains. But as the planets progress, the
combustion continues into Taurus when Sun- Venus come opposite to Saturn and
Mars in Scorpio. Though these two malefics in a watery sign is good for
rainfall, their opposition to monsoon causing Venus and Mercury at the time of start of Monsoon is not good. So I foresee a delayed
onset of SW monsoon.
Anyway the combustion of Venus continues at the time
Arudra Ingress of the Sun. At that time opposition from Saturn and Mars is
over. So the Arudra Pravesham on 21st June must
come with good progress of the SW monsoon.
The end of combustion of Venus
is also a factor in determining the rainfall.
In this scheme, the sky is divided into 6 Mandalas of
stars and the re-emergence of Venus in a Mandala determines the rainfall. (see
at the end of the article)
On July 10th 2016, Venus re-emerges from
combustion in the 2nd Mandala (Poosam). This gives less than average rainfall.
So the early pointers are
for ups and downs in rainfall in the early part of SW monsoon season, though
the extent of the rainfall is such that it is mixed, more at one place and less
at another. In my place, the 1st day of Garbottam shows that
it will be scanty atleast until 5th July.
Let me observe the 2nd day of Garbottam
and look at other astrological features.
*******
The 6 Mandalas of the sky for the re-emergence of Venus
after combustion are as follows:
1st Mandala = Bharani,
Krittikai, Rohini, Mrigashirsham (4 stars)
2nd Mandala = Arudra,
Punarvasu, Poosam, Aslesha (next 4 stars)
3rd Mandala = Magha, Purva phalguni,
Uttara Phalguni, Hastham, Chittrai (next 5 stars)
4th Mandala = Swathi, Vishaka,
Anusha (next 3 stars)
5th Mandala = Jyeshta, Moola,
Purvashada, Uttara shada, Sravana, (next 5 stars)
6th Mandala = Dhanishta or Avittam,
Shathabhishak or Sadhayam, Purva bhadrapada, Uttara Bhadrapada, Revathy,
Ashwini (next 6 stars).
If Venus re-emerges after combustion in the 1st and
2nd Mandala, rains will be below average.
If it re-emerges after combustion in the 3rd and
5th Mandala, there will be little rain and famine
conditions will prevail.
If it re-emerges after combustion in the 4th and
6th Mandala, there will be copious rains.
