In 2009 Lok sabha elections, Vijayakanth split the anti-DMK votes that helped DMK /UPA to net 25 seats. In 2014 elections, he is going to split anti-Jayalalithaa votes to help her make a clean sweep, says Mr TSV Hari who is familiar to Thuglak readers in his pseudonym as Venkat.
This line of thinking seems to be what Jayalaithaa also tows. She was averse to Vijayakanth aligning with Cong-DMK for, that would become a formidable anti-Jayalalithaa combination backed up with heavy money bags from the Congress and the DMK. She did not hesitate to use the Rajiv killers -issue to create a fresh bout of bitterness against the Congress at a time when Vijaykanth almost finalised a deal with the Congress. That helped in successfully stalling the conglomeration of a strong anti-Jayalalithaa front.
Jayalalithaa's further moves were directed at making it impossible for Vijaykanth to join the Congress –(which would rope in the DMK later). The initial two days of her campaign – i.e., until it was declared that Vijayakanth had entered into a pact with BJP – Jayalalithaa was fiercely attacking Congress in her election speech. A good part of her speech was directed at listing out the misdeeds of the Congress. It looked odd and wasteful given that Congress is already a dead horse in Tamilnadu. But watching her recent speech in Nagappattinam and Mayiladuthurai – after Vijaykanth had entered in to the BJP alliance, there is a glaring difference. The rhetoric against the congress is less - as if it is no longer needed to keep reminding people how bad the Congress is and how bad it is to vote for anyone who aligns with it. It seems she thinks that the threat factor is gone with the DMDK- DMK- Congress alliance not taking off.
Now with Vijaykanth aligning with the BJP, the 'grand' DMDK – BJP- PMK- MDMK alliance is going to split anti -Jayalalithaa votes so that pro-Jayalalithaa votes would be more than what each of two opposing formations are going to bag. By aligning with these parties, the TN BJP is doing a big disservice to the country and itself. The harm to the country is that it is giving re-birth to the parties that are already consigned to the dustbin – the right place where they have to be for the benefit of the State at large. The harm it is doing to itself will be felt by it in the coming days. Within 3 months of aligning with Vijaykanth, Jayalalithaa regretted for having aligned with him. The TN BJP need not wait for that long – already they must have had a taste of it in the past one month of 'talks'. His foul mouth is going to spoil whatever chances that may be needed in the post poll scenario for the BJP.
Beyond all this I have a question. Usually people accuse Jayalalithaa as being arrogant, stubborn and not treating her allies well. What would one say for the diatribes that Vijayakanth is making in the past one month and in his on- and-off alliance talks with the Congress and the BJP and at Singapore with the DMK? It is an open secret –something written in leading Tamil news papers – that one of the issues to settle for the alliance talks was money that he wants from the BJP (or any party that wants to ally with him – be it Congress or DMK) to fund the election expenses of his party. Why the EC is not taking a serious view of this? Why no one in the media questioned this? Why no one had taken him to court for this? Is this what the media people want us to believe as "Dance of democracy"?
- Jayasree
*******************
From
Vijaykant's NDA Entry Double-Edged Sword Cut To Suit Jaya's Big Win In TN Parl Seats?
By
Will Vijaykant's impending entry into the National Democratic Alliance pave the way for the bigger Vijay of Jaya from Tamil Nadu and/or Paraajay [defeat] of Modi's quest for the prime ministerial post?
Serious discussions are underway between the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam [DMDK] a political party headed, owned and operated by a washed up Telugu speaking thespian of the Tamil screen – Vijaykant alias Vijay Raj, a.k.a. Captain a.k.a. Amritraj born to Alagarswamy Naidu and Andaal in 1952 and the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party [BJP], the national outfit's Tamil Nadu boss Pon Radhakrishnan a.k.a. Ponra told reporters.
Ponra shot himself on his tongue when he began by saying in Tamil that the negotiations are on between his party and the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.
After the press do, someone was heard snidely remarking: Does Ponra want a post-poll alliance with the DMK and is he hoping that his endeavour of talks with the DMDK will reduce the number of seats that the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam wins? Is that why the word Munnetra slipped out?
The talks are being conducted on the DMDK side by Sudhish, the brother-in-law of the actor-turned-politician.
Sources told Southern Features that main bones of contention from the side of Vijaykant are: [a] Vijaykant is announced as the leader of the alliance in Tamil Nadu; [b] a Rajya Sabha seat for Sudhish; [c] the maximum number of seats to go to the DMDK; [d] the financing of the contest of all the 40 constituencies – the solitary one being Puducherry – to be done by the BJP; [e] the choice of seats to be left to Vijaykant; [f] equal billing for the actor alongside Modi and [g] the BJP will operate all its national media assets to get to sing Vijaykant's praises to help him attain a countrywide stature.
Sources within the BJP and the DMDK indicate that the alliance is national in character.
"The first names in both the parties are a clear indication. "Bharatiya" means 'all-India' means 'national'. The word 'Desiya' exactly translates into English as 'national'. This front is the only one which has a serious prime ministerial hopeful and national character as two of its mainstays have the name national in them," the top BJP source began saying.
The source made fun of the possibility of Jayalalithaa being catapulted to lead the 3rd front.
"Those who say Jayalalithaa will be Modi's challenger, are living in a fool's paradise," the source said laughing at this scribe.
Are you meaning to aim this comment at me?
My question was on the basis of what I had written earlier. It was met with derision.
"Anyone who says such asinine things are to be only called as residents of cuckoo-land. And their imaginary leader today is one Mamata Bannerjee who is facing a revolt from her own party over the choice of India's football star Baichung Bhutia in the Gorkha-dominated Darjeeling, bypassing her own party cadres' claims. Because it is Mamata who said she would support Jaya for the post of prime minister," the source further said.
"The simple fact of life is that the BJP is becoming stronger while all the other parties are weakening in Tamil Nadu. The realistic main opposition Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam has virtually split between the two sons of Karunanidhi – one being MK Azhagiri – currently suspended from the outfit and the other is MK Stalin. The DMK has some 24% of the popular vote. Madurai downwards Azhagiri would ensure the defeat of all official DMK-led front candidates. In northern TN, Azhagiri's supporters will actively work to split the anti-AIADMK votes. One can even expect sources close to Jayalalithaa to finance such a move on the part of Azhagiri and even go easy on the case concerning granite export that involves his son and the more visible partner PRP – that runs into a huge sum well beyond a million crores of rupees," another source - this one from the a leader of the MDMK - part of this front, averred.
Congress was given a short, derisive shrift.
"The Congress is a goner in TN. But, knowing its leaders' love for money, some of them would contest and hope to split whatever number of votes they can and seriously hope that it would net some money from those candidates of the winnable AIADMK and/or the BJP-led front. The maximum money if any will come from the AIADMK chaps who have the money and ruling power," the source pointed out.
Other constituents of the possible BJP and/or DMDK led front did not matter at all according to a different source.
"Vaiko's Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam [MDMK] and Pattali Makkal Katchi [PMK] of the politically discredited Ramadoss have failed to make any impact during the last assembly elections. They are actually going to soak whatever money is available from the BJP – knowing very well that chances of their winning a single seat is lesser than nil. Let it also not be forgotten that not too long ago, Dr Anbumani Ramadoss had shared a dais with Uttar Pradesh CM Akhilesh Yadav in TN. Nothing came of it because Akhilesh was unwilling to spend money and the PMK was unwilling to spend its money. And then, there are other some nameless parties of educationists like the Indhiya Jananayaga Katchi [IJK] who may be expected to bankroll the outfits in a big way, but why would someone like Dr Parri Venthar, who does not even pay salaries to his employees fund someone else's victory? And if the Venthar hopes to be given a Rajya Sabha seat simply because he rubbed shoulders with Narendra Modi in February during a convocation ceremony, he is sadly mistaken," the source close to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, miffed at the turn of events within the BJP argued citing the chances of the Chancellor of the SRM University.
"All this would only help the AIADMK which could spring quite a few surprises to Narendra Modi – regardless of the NDA winning big or small. Unless the BJP wins a majority on its own – which is highly unlikely – all the convulsions in Tamil Nadu will only suit the machinations of J Jayalalithaa. And that is why she even jettisoned the left. If the two parties levitate towards Karunanidhi, well they would be living in a bigger foolish paradise than the one cited earlier. The future of the DMK is finished. The left does not spend big money on elections. The DMK would hope to soak in the left votes in as many parliamentary constituencies as possible to show that Stalin is still relevant. That would only ensure bigger wins for the AIADMK nominees. Instead of accepting what had been offered, by opting out of the Jaya-led front, the 2 left parties' leaders in TN who also confirmed leaving the front have placed pistols into the palms of their feet, shoved both into their mouths and pulled the trigger," the source observed, tongue in cheek.
"In the final analysis, if the Modi magic does not work nationwide as expected, Jaya would be the compromise candidate proposed and supported by those who hate within and beyond the confines of the BJP. If that happens, the BJP would try to give the southern madam the same kind of ulcers she had given Vajpayee in the 90's. Else, it would be vice versa for Modi as Jaya will want quite a few concessions to support his candidature for the post of PM as she would command at least 35 MPs from TN, some 30 from AP bringing the tally to 65. Further, Jaya has a decent friendship with Navin Patnaik of Orissa and Mamata has acknowledged her support to the southern lady. Perhaps, in a strange secenario, Jaya may even herd Mamata into the NDA camp if it is ever worth it," the source added.
Here is the Vijaykant dossier from my earlier blog.
Vijaykant heads what is known as Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam [DMDK] that translates into National Progressive Dravidian Party.
Born in 1952 in Tirumangalam village – located in the outskirts of Madurai city, Vijaykant has seen a sedate climb to stardom.
He is the only son of his mother Andaal but has 7 step siblings.
The man who gave him a break first gave him the screen name Amritraj was director MA Kaja – in the 1979 film Inikkum Ilamai [sweet youth]. The name soon changed to Vijaykant. Some say the second half of the name was appended to the first following the resurgence of the movie career of another dark-skinned actor called Rajnikant who was born as the Marathi-Kannada speaking Shivaji Rao Gaekwad in Karnataka.
Neither Rajnikant nor Vijaykant can properly pronounce the Tamil letter ழ [zha] even despite having been leading lights in Kollywood after a career spanning 35 years plus.
Vijaykant was dropped from his debut 1978 film –En Kelvikku Enna Badil [what is the answer to my question] as those who made it felt the actor's Tamil diction was god-awful. A few years before the birth of Vijaykant, another actor was jettisoned from his first film by the director on the same grounds. His name was Marudur Gopalamenon Ramachandran [MGR], who had gone on to become the CM of Tamil Nadu.
Vijaykant calls himself black-MGR an anecdote snidely used today by Kollywood insiders who quickly point out that MGR wasn't a great deliverer of lines either.
Between 2001 and 2010, most of the movies starring Vijaykant had bombed at the box office.
He had begun the DMDK in 2005. Rumours about the DMDK 'donation fee' for a party ticket indicate the price range between Rs.5,000 and Rs.10,000.
Tamil Nadu's population in 2005 was roughly 5crores. The rough average for one each local representative per 100 persons.
Thus, contests happened for some 500,000 plus 'elected' positions. If one goes by the most conservative estimate of Rs.5,000 per ticket – the math produces the unlikely result of Rs.250 crores in one go in the DMDK kitty in one go! Certainly Vijaykant never was paid that much.
No actor could have ever imagined earning that kind of money in an entire career even if he/she had delivered only super hits.
The money and a carefully selected assembly constituency Vriddhachalm helped Vijaykant become the sole legislator from the DMDK in 2006. Vijaykant has since changed his constituency to Rishivandhiyam.
The Karunanidhi-led Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam [DMK] or Dravidian Progressive Party in a clear minority in the state assembly with a little over 100 members managed to capture power in 2006 with the help of the 35 Congress legislators [none got a ministerial berth despite repeated demands] did something unthinkable.
Under the alibi of widening a highway in the northwest outskirts of Chennai, the regime partly demolished a marriage hall owned by Vijaykant's family. The actor termed it 'a vengeance on his personal property due to political rivalry resulting in untold misery and huge monetary losses.'
In the 2009, Vijaykant's DMDK contested in all the 40 parliamentary constituencies [the single being in the Union Territory of Puducherry] and polled the difference between victory and defeat in 25 of them. In other words, out of the United Progressive Alliance 29 seats [if one discounts the Sivaganga seat which Jaya claims had been lost by P Chidambaram the total works out to 28] won during the parliamentary elections of 2009, 25 were achieved through the machinations of Vijaykant Naidu.
The DMDK had abused all the parties – DMK, Congress, AIADMK and even the left. Besides, all the television channels in TN – under the instructions of the ruling DMK and the Congress had featured Vijaykant as an equal to Jaya, Karunanidhi and the Congress.
Therefore, it was of little wonder that the 2009 parliamentary results show that DMDK had garnered some 13% of the votes cast without winning a single seat.
The DMK leadership which immensely benefited from this soon forgot Vijaykant. When rumours began circulating about Vijaykant getting monetarily gratified, DMK top brass stopped taking calls from Vijaykant and from journalists on that subject.
This resulted in his hooking his bandwagon on to the AIADMK during the assembly elections in 2011 that resulted in his becoming the Leader of Opposition, a position he still enjoys, despite the majority of the opposition legislators being opposed to him.
Hence, Tamil Nadu has the dubious distinction of having had a minority regime that lasted the full term and later electing a minority leader of opposition.
Before finalizing his seat-sharing [there are many who call it shearing] arrangement with the BJP, Vijaykant had been saying that he would fight the parliamentary polls in the company of a party that would accept his leadership in Tamil Nadu.
In the unlikely prospect of this netting Vijaykant anything serious, many in his party believe that the move would improve his national stature and eventually make him the CM of Tamil Nadu, a fact the faded actor keeps repeating. And Modi would have the mortification of seeing Vijaykant getting a bigger billing than the BJP poster boy.
The math that points to the AIADMK romping home:
AIADMK with 32% of the popular vote-share is now contesting all the seats after the left has announced a break-up. Other smaller parties may hitch their bandwagon to give 1% more – i.e. 33%.
Vijaykant + BJP + Vaiko + PMK and other flotsam and jetsam outfits total some 20% of the popular votes – if one believes that the BJP gets 3% due to the Modi factor.
The DMK has a vote-share of roughly 24% - which may be split somewhat unevenly between the supporters of MK Stalin and Azhagiri.
The Congress claims an 8% share. The others could account for another 3%.
The contests will be 3-cornered. In the best case scenario, TN may see 80% polling in the parliamentary polls.
Of this, the AIADMK would expect to get its 33% in one block.
The rest would be split as 24% [DMK front], 20% [DMDK-BJP front], and some 11% to the other front comprising the Congress. This count would account for 55% - of the anti-incumbency vote against the AIADMK. Simply put, the arrangement benefits Jaya completely.
In my earlier blogs, I had claimed to have written the obituary of Vijaykant's political career.
I had pointed out the following:
Vijaykant had ensured that the United Progressive Alliance won 25 seats in 2009 parliamentary elections by going it alone and splitting roughly 13% of the votes in favour of the Congress-DMK-VCK alliance.
In 2011, by uniting the anti-DMK-Congress votes, he ensured that Jaya romped home to be CM and he became the Leader of Opposition.
The unconfirmed report is that Vijaykant brushes his teeth with an intoxicant early in the morning and stays sozzled throughout the day.
In Tamil Nadu, in the name of opposing the 'oppressive rulers and ushering in change' the heroic Captain Vijaykant would help his so-called political foe Jaya win big in the parliamentary elections – thus paving the way for her to bargain with the BJP after the elections.
It will not matter to Vijaykant that he may bag next to nothing during the parliamentary polls now because his advisors may be smugly thinking that he would be the next CM.
Sadly, that is one thing that may not happen at all as politically inebriated Vijaykant's antics will only boost the visibility of the BJP that stands to gain big in Tamil Nadu with the fading of the divided DMK and the fading Congress.
One of the bitter truths is that MGR had never married Vaikom Narayani Janaki following advice from some astrologers that women married to him would never remain alive for long.
Despite Jaya exposing this sordid fact and even accusing Janaki of poisoning MGR to death, it was Janaki who gifted her part of the AIADMK to Jayalalithaa before passing away.
The 'revolutionary leader' MGR had shaped the political career of Jayalalithaa by flaunting her on his shoulder.
The Indian Express had carried a very famous photograph of MGR and Janaki flanking MGR at the 1983 Asian Games held in New Delhi.
Jaya's 'closeness' to MGR had led to Jaya becoming CM – after her face-off with the late Janaki Ramachandran – who had been the longest live-in companion of MGR.
Vijaykant often enjoys his party workers referring to him as the black MGR.
The closeness to the fair-skinned MGR made Jaya CM.
Will the black MGR aid Jaya indirectly in becoming the PM by ensuring that the former actress's candidates manage to win very big in the ensuing parliamentary polls by splitting the anti-AIADMK votes just as he had helped the UPA to win 25 seats from TN and Puducherry?
