Sunday, April 17, 2011

Heavy polling in TN – what does it convey?




Tamilnadu recorded the highest ever polling in this Assemble election, raising the suspense on the outcome of the elections. I read the different stories circulated on the net and assessed the basis of the computation of such stories. On my part I too have a story of what could have happened on the polling day and I cross checked with the information from people from many parts of Tamilnadu and did some ground work.


The basic mantra that made the people to come out in huge numbers to vote was
corruption’ and that ‘this government must go’. There is no difference between any segment of the society. All people, rich, poor, women, men, youth and the old have come out in full strength and voted. That itself shows that there is a wave – a wave that this government must go. This is re-confirmed in the re-poll yesterday which recorded 80% polling. With no ‘voter mobilization’ (read cash-for-vote) and intimidation (thanks to the vigil of EC), these voters went to the booths with a free mind of their own. 


 (A polling booth in Madurai. Pic courtesy - The Hindu)


I found an early signal of it on the night before the polls when lacs of people including me, crisscrossed the State to reach to their native places to cast their votes. And what a sight I had! The crowd in the bus stands surpassed what we used to see on Pongal and Deepavali vacation. The glaring feature of the crowd was that all of them were in their twenties!! Many college students and working youngsters were rushing back home just to be on time to cast their votes. To see the sea of youth everywhere around was unbelievable.


The same scenario greeted me when I landed in my home town. I was dropped nearly half a kilometer from the bus stand because everywhere there were people and people who were looking for some transportation to go to their destinations in the South. Mine is a border town and people were dropped in my town from where they had to go to their respective places. The previous night saw heavy movement of people traveling on bus tops, clinging to the ladders in the back of the buses and traveling in precarious conditions!! This is the first time I have noticed such a crowd in my town (an industrial town) hurrying to travel by whatever means and ways they could get and be back to work the next day.


Do you think these people went like this to vote for the DMK??
Impossible.
Everywhere we were hearing people exclaim how people were anxious to vote this time!
The predominance of youth in this crowd was something that could not be missed.
It gave only one message.
They wanted to voice their opinion against corruption.


From a TV debate I heard that nearly 80 lac youth voted in this election.
That means 80 lac solid votes did not go to the DMK.
The youth are not happy about the way corruption is eating the society and they could not stomach the way the Tamil’s name was shattered by A.Raja and his masters. Each of the 80 lac youth can have an influence on at least 2 persons in their family, namely their parents. That puts the number to 2.4 crores who voted against corruption. 


That means that out of 3.67 crores who voted in this election, 2.4 crores could have voted against corruption, which means against Karunanidhi. This itself puts the number to two thirds of the total voters as those who voted against corruption. We should remember that this group is widely spread across the state. Even the poor households have their wards studying in Engineering colleges in some corner of the State and these wards are not amused by the politics of corruption.

 (picture courtesy - The Hindu)


Even if it is assumed that only half of this number constitutes the youth, then also the total share comes to one fourth of the total voters. Every family including mine made sure that our wards are there in town to cast their votes. The usually passive middle class and the rich also came out of their houses this time to make sure that the ‘bought votes’ were offset by their votes. 


Yes, only 2 issues prompted these people (passive citizens who used to stay indoors on the polling day) to go to the polling booth this time. The main one is that with the news of ‘cash for votes’ getting some how distributed inspite of strict EC vigilance made people determined to offset the effect of such votes by casting their votes in full strength. At the most 10% of the swing could have been made by the voters who voted for cash. This margin must be offset and that is what prompted these people to come out in full strength to vote.


Another issue is the worry of bogus vote. People did not want their votes to be cast by others which would go to the benefit of the corrupt regime of Karunanidhi. Earlier people had not bothered about it. But this time, if they slackened, then there is no way Tamilnadu can be saved – no way can they save themselves. The grip of MK’s family and his goons is there all across the state that no section of the society can say that they are not affected by them. From a flower vendor in the street to a well do person who wants to sell his house, there is a tale to tell about the highhandedness of the police and the DMK men. People have been struggling to find a solution. This election offered them a solution. Jayalalithaa’s prime stress on law and order and restoration of lost properties must have sent clear signals on how they can get back the lost sense of security. The Election Commission’s activities ever since polls were notified, infused confidence in all sections of the people that even the ultra rich felt that their vote can certainly turn the tables, in spite of cash for votes.


Ask anyone in Tamilnadu if they thought the people voted for cash. Why should they - they will ask you back. The reasons they cite is that money has gone to DMK supporters and not to all. The average money per vote was Rs 200 only and this is hardly a factor to induce them to vote. The EC’s sustained campaign in all vulnerable constituencies of the South asking voters not to vote for cash, in effect served as an anti DMK propaganda. DMK was the party that was wooing voters with cash and now if people are not to vote for that cash, it is like telling that they must not vote for the DMK! Many got the money but there was no guarantee that it was converted into votes. Recall the report on the day of polling that Alagiri wanted to go around the constituency as he received the information that the DMK men were ‘not doing their duty’. He was stopped by the security around him. 
 

What duty was that? To understand this ‘duty’,  we must know the steps in “Thirumangalam formula”. (1) Cash and kind will flow. (2) There will be several rounds of warnings that they must vote as told. (3) On the day of polling these voters will be watched and reminded. The last 2 steps could not be done thanks to EC’s watchful eyes. There is no way to remind (another term for ‘threaten’) the voters what they must do.


This has made the DMK and Alagiri not to go ahead with the 4th step – that of announcing the victory margin!! Only once we heard Karunanidhi saying that he will win in the necessary number of seats to form the government. That means the DMK and Congress had flooded the money in 117 constituencies for sure. Did they really manage to do that?


It seems so, if we take women vote share as the yardstick. Women have outnumbered men in 104 constituencies in 20 districts. 

The split-up is as follows:
43 of these constituencies are in the southern districts — Madurai, Virudhunagar, Dindigul, Theni, Ramanathapuram, Sivaganga, Tirunelveli, Tuticorin and Kanyakumari. These are definitely probable ones. PC’s hand in Sivaganga is also reported and expectedly he declared that his party will win in all the assembly constituencies in Sivaganga. If follow up work (step 3) had happened in these districts, cash would have worked. If not, it is wasted money.

34 constituencies in the central region showed more women voters. They are in Tiruchi, Karur, Perambalur, Ariyalur, Pudukottai, Thanjavur, Tiruvarur and Nagapattinam. These are the worst affected areas by land sharks of the DMK and there is every chance to believe that the anger of the people far outweighed the cash that was given.

19 constituencies are in Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kancheepuram, Vellore, Tiruvannamalai, Cuddalore and Villupuram. Though women voters were high, Chennai and Kancheepuram recorded lower turnout than rest of the State. Initially I was perplexed because the impact of 2G was high in these places that even sent the DMK leaders out of Chennai. But after talking to some who did not vote, I understood that traditional DMK and Congress voters did not vote this time! These voters who are educated and well aware of the situation, could not digest the corruption charges against the DMK- Congress and at the same time could not accept any other party. So the best thing to do for them was to stay indoors. 


This refrain was found only in cities such as Chennai and Coimbatore. In other places, the people were not die hard loyalists. Such people have gone in good numbers to the polling booth. It is natural to expect them to have voted against a corrupt government. When the loyalists themselves could not  accept DMK’s corruption, how can we expect others whose preference changes from time to time, to accept DMK’s corruption? 


8 constituencies in the western districts had high women voter turn out. They are Krishnagiri, Dharmapuri, Salem, Coimbatore, Tiruppur, Erode, Namakkal and The Nilgiris. Money was seized from women's SHG in Krishnagiri but whatever amount had gone undetected had not penetrated sufficient number of voters so as to make a difference in the polling. It must also be noted that there was boycott of polling in one polling booth in Hosur in Krishnagiri district, citing lack of amenities as the cause for the boycott. Moreover a vast number of poor in these areas are migrating laborers such as construction workers. Vijayakanth is an idol for them.


In the final analysis, in the 43 constituencies in the South as mentioned above, we can not rule out DMK hand of cash translating into votes. But it must be remembered that this region saw the maximum vigilance by the EC. So Karunanidhi’s calculation may go wrong.


The role of SHG which has 69.91 lac women is the only source of hope for the DMK. They are supposed to be responsible for ‘voter mobilisation’ by bringing in more voters to the booth.  This time also it is said that money was sent through them. But the flow of money was far less this time thanks to the EC’s ways. On an average Rs 200/ had gone to the vulnerable sections. But this time there is a criticism that money had gone to DMK supporters and not to all!! That makes the difference. 


Not all the SHG members are DMK loyalists. But lure of money had made them work for the DMK and also cast their votes to the DMK in the previous elections including the 2009 Lok sabha election. Such effectiveness was not visible this time, say the people at the lower rung. 


Perhaps the massive turn out of women in Rishivanthiyam explains the reason for higher women turn out. Traditionally Tamilnadu women had supported MGR. It was retained by Jayalalithaa. Never in the past, had it been claimed that women sided with the DMK. The SHG did not bring in more women voters in the past. There is no way to say that they brought in more women voters this time.


On the other hand the high number of women voters in Rishivanthiyam reminds of MGR days. Vijayakanth attracted women in his meetings. Jayalalithaa too attracted women. But that was markedly absent in Vadivelu’s meetings and Stalin’s meetings – the only 2 people whose attraction potential can be assessed through roadside meetings.


The supposedly upset supporters of Vijayakanth for aligning with ADMK were seen not worrying about that, after Panruti Ramachandran made it known in Coimbatore meeting that Vijayakanth will be in the Opposition after the win. Vijayakanth’s oft repeated dialogue “நான் தட்டிக் கேட்பேன், தட்டிக் கேட்பேன்(I will question the misdeeds) which he exhibited in action too were liked by his supporters. I think Vijayakanth’s vote share would have increased this time. Vadivelu’s smear campaign could help him to get sympathy for him.


This leaves us with the only justification we hear from the DMK that women were attracted by their achievements (freebies they offered). They have not understood women’s psychology. No woman will accept that she is happy or satisfied. Ask the women voters about the cash for votes, you will hear them saying how somebody else was given more, but they received less. Similarly you ask them if they were not happy with the one rupee rice, they would say who would pay for the dhal that is selling sky-high. Price rise was the real fact that hurt all sections of people. Talk of free colur TV will remind them of power cuts which is another issue with the common man. 


In my assessment price rise and power cut were the issues with the rural people while corruption is an issue with the urbanites and the educated class. The entire state is affected by these 3 issues.


The EC’s fantastic role in curbing the ‘voter mobilisation’ techniques infused confidence in the people that their vote will not be wasted in a tsunami of cash for votes. This time, I am sure every voter felt proud after casting his or her vote. The voter got a sense of importance that he can decide the fate of the politicians; he can decide what he wants for his country. It is people’s power seen throughout the State. If the election results reflect this assessment of mine, I will be truly proud of my fellow Tamils that they had risen in time to tell the world that we are honest and straight forward people who would not allow corrupt ones to eat our resources.


Some amusing scenes in this election.


வில்லன், சூப்பர் ஸ்டாராகி விட்டார். (Election Commission) 

சூப்பர் ஸ்டார் காமெடியன் ஆகிவிட்டார். (Rajinikanth) 

காமெடியன் ஹீரோவாகி விட்டார். (Vadivelu)

ஹீரோயின் எக்ஸ்ட்ராவாகி விட்டார். (DMK’s election manifesto)

அம்மா, வாத்தியாரம்மாவாகி விட்டார் (ரௌடிகளை அடிக்கும் வாத்தியார் எம்.ஜி.ஆர் பாணியில்) (Jayalalithaa)

வாத்தியார் இடத்தைப் பிடிக்க விரும்பின ஹீரோ,
ஆப்புக்கும், ஹாஃப் க்கும் வித்தியாசம் என்ன என்று
பாடம் சொல்லித்தரும் வாத்தியாராகி விட்டார். (Vijayakanth)

ஜனங்க என்ன ஆகப் போறாங்களோஓஓஓஓஓ 



18 comments:

Bala said...

In general a high voter turnout indicates anti incumbency votes.

Remember 1977 Lok Sabha elections when Indira Gandhi was defeated and Congress suffered a heavy defeat?

Let us hope that DMK has been defeated in a clear cut manner so that it cannot come back to power somehow with some adjustments with some other like minded parties.

Bala

ramakrishna said...

Hi Jaishree,

As an Indian ,It's really nice to see a huge turn over in poll this year,

now that's positive for democracy, however attributing to anti DMK votes ...i do not think so.

Being a statistician my self, i'd attribute the higher voter turn out to two fundamental reasons

1)Election Commissions sincere effort to provide an ID before election and election slip provided in the respective polling booths ahead of election and other initiatives .
They took commedable effort to ensure people have their id proofs and the awareness they created this time was really superb.

2 )The Date of Election was on 13th, 14th happened to be Ambedkar Jayanthi Govt holiday and if one takes leave on 15th , that happened to be very long week end. This was evident on friday with empty trains , buses and in all the tech parks in Chennai.

So my humble submission is portraying people voted for a party or other and thats why there was this huge turn out may not be appropriate conclusion.

Exit Poll conclusions (vikatan,kumudam or for that reason even the english media), i think they are not correct and they look more like a deskwork without exploring the details of the behaviour of voters, they seem to do shallow analysis based on the news whole world knows.

But that's not the way people vote. People do not vote for national issues,Corruption issues or they do not even vote for issues concerning the security of the nation {Ex: Current Govt is On despite 26/11 and despite not bringing the culprits to book} ..

Rather People vote for their individual well being,and their self interest. This could range anywhere between their business interests to freebies to caste feeling etc

It may be tasting as neem fruit, but thats what the anlyisi of the elections conducted in the last 15 years show, and thats the fact.

Please trust me, people like you who speak and try to do something for the nation are miniscule in numbers .
Hence my salutes to you,

Between Coming back to the point I do not say DMK alliance will win or ADMK will win..All I say is, the huge voter turn out - does not mean anything..till the last minute there had not been a wave factor that can influence the election ..As a matter of fact i'd not be surprised if it favours DMK.

i'm not sure how far Anna Hazare's of the worlds would have influenced the election in tamilnadu as there were no support even during the peak of the agitation, Tamilnadu was busy with IPL, Mappiliai and TASMAC
guess what who were in these places.. not 40+

Looking at things now, with the interaction with people of different sections all i can tell is Tamilnadu has voted fractionally..ADMK may emerge as a single largest party because it stood in maximum number of seats that will give them an advantage over DMK..however it would be short of majority by a mile and would depend on the alliance and we do not know how the alliance will change post poll , please do not be surprised if Vijaykanth or others switch sides

Again this is just my view based on the interactions with a diverse section of people and their opinion on both the alliances..

Between, i read your blogs and like them .
My another submission is "Your Blogs are Anti DMK and Pro ADMK" however people like you should not support both the corrupt parties, while people like you write in length on corrupt free state and finally you want the state to be handed over to either Jaya or Narendra Modi.{Even Hitler's regime was corrupt free but everyone knows what he did for Jews, i add this because i know you are a Modi Fan}

Thats not fair...Please identify and promote an honest and efficient alternative, instead of thief and robber and killer.

I've not found even one in this country till date.. hw abt you?

KK said...

This is a positive way of looking at things. I also wish for the same. According to some hunch feeling i have (do not ask me the basis), the ruling party will come to power. Let us wait and see sir !!

SN said...

Nice random thoughts. I feel Rajni's comment after voting also would have influenced the reason for more % of votes.
7% more turnout and heavy voting % indicates that the electorate from Chennai to Kanyakumari wanted to convey something or same-thing.
Though some of the welfare schemes reached rural people, the performance of 95% of DMK ministers are not up to the mark, which will reflect not only in their constituency but few more around it.
Money for vote, MDMK vote ( with reduced vote bank as second rank MDMK heavyweights are already in DMK) and DMDK's anti vote for alliance with AIADMK cannot substantially reduce the vote% of anti incumbancy+ Freebies+ infight in Congress and DMK. This makes results in favour of AIADMK.
Alternatively , due to heavy voter turnout , there could be a possibility of 2 major partners in each allaince making a tie. DMK-75+ Cong-25 and AIADMK-75+DMDK-25 and others sharing rest of the seats.
But going by the trend after the polls, the following result is possible
AIADMK front 171
DMK front 63
(Add + or - 5 % change)
All are eagerly awaiting to see the final show of Dance of democracy

Rajan Alexander said...

This was an interesting article and discussion. But turnout in the Tamil Nadu context has very weak correlation with result.

Read more: http://exitopinionpollsindia.blogspot.com/2011/04/record-voter-turnout-why-it-does-not.html

Also exclusive opinion poll on how SHGS likely to vote

jayasree said...

@ ramakrishna

(1) True. The EC's action had a role. However the EC's extraordinary vigilance in keeping malpractices under check also played a bigger role in attracting voters. Perhaps you had forgotten the last corporation elections when muscle power ran high. My house is behind the polling booth. Hardly 12 % from our place could go out to vote. The DMK men wielding aruvaaL were moving around. Our phone calls to the Police yielded no response. That election was largely guided by Stalin. Stalin believed in muscle power. After that only, Alagiri stepped in and introduced money power. In the 2009 elections booth agents of other parties were bought by DMK men. Such malpractices were largely curbed this time infusing a confidence in the voters that their votes can matter.

(2)This holiday held good for govt employees. Many private concerns which employ more people ran their business on 14th. In my home town, where many small and large scale industries are there, there was no holiday on 14th. College students also had to rush as semester exams are nearing.

Except transport dept employees and a section of govt employees, almost the entire state have a grudge against DMK. Except hardcore DMK loyalists others voted against it. The increased percentage did not go to the DMK.

26/11 did not have an impact because 2009 election was rigged by Navin Chawla. Hope you read the EVM articles in my blogspot. I am still apprehensive of EVM counting. But am trying to trust Quireshi. After seeing his Walk the Talk yesterday, my trust level has gone up.

The last assembly election was in favour of JJ only until MK announced the free colour TV. He announced it late in the campaign and it lured. The elections after that (bye elections and Lok sabha) saw play of money.

This time also, the initial response of people after MK rolled out his manifesto was for DMK. That was off set by JJ's manifesto. In the run up, freebies were left to the back seat and other issues were made to occupy the minds of the people.

But my assessment from other places is that the people from different walks of life have grievances about the Govt. In the current elections many like me, saw that JJ alone is capable of uprooting MK and taking action against his misdeeds. Horoscopically Alagiri has bhandana yoga of imprisonment. Such a thing can not happen without JJ at the helm.

Yes I support Jayalalithaa and Modi. They have better acumen in running the administration. They are the best among the rest in the current situation.

Finally, the one question people (from different walks of life ) ask me these days 'DMK vara maattaanE?' Why should they be worried if they like DMK?

jayasree said...

All traders are fuming against MK's family. In the film field from light boy to Rajinikanth, they are waiting for a regime change. This was told by an insider from film industry to me the day before polling. When I told him that Mk's horoscope is not favorable for a comeback and that Alagiri is going to face troubles, he touched my head and blessed me that I 'paal vaarththufied' him. Film industry will be gone if MK comes back to power.

Take the case of temples. I was wondering why the Bhattacharyas of all these popular Vasihnavite shrines from Srirangam to Triplicane should meet JJ and also joined her party. Why this party affiliation for Bhattacharyas? The insider news is that Alagiri' men had taken by auction many activities of these temples. Go to Triplicane temple and taste the prasadham from MadappaLi. It would be awful. All money goes to their pockets and sub standard items are cooked. It is high time, Bhagavan punishes them through people's vote.

Buddha said...

@ Ramakrishna..

Your views on the voting % seems to be Neutral and insightful.
Great Analysis!
In short teh peopel do not vote for Real issues like Security ,Corruption etc., they vote only when they feel the Pinch.
Luckily The Politicialns keep on Pinching them.

The exceptions are W.bengal where they were kept in Dark by the Communist.
But Mamta seems to be more darker and Buddha seems to be a better choice.


But i feel you are too strict on Modi.

He is a Great Leader , dont go by the Pseudo Secular Press.

Sheela said...

High turnout of voters is a welcome trend. People's mandate has always been clear in general., right from 1977 elections except for 2009 parliamentary election which Mr.Ramakrishna is right., national security took a back seat. But I felt impact when my housemaid asks
that when they distribute tv free why not cablecost also free?? are they giving TV from their money? it is only taxpayers money.she does not even buy rs 2/kg rice due to bad quality. inspite of money distributed., she has voted against.

Only Govt staff who are unaware of pangs of common man., staunchly support. Otherwise entire trading community., business community and general public are against.

Sheela

jayasree said...

Heard an account from the one who actually distributed cash for vote!! It confirms what I wrote in this post. But the amount of money was high. In the last 2 days before the polls, heavy cash to the extent of 2000 + had been given in many places. JJ was perhaps right that 5000 crores have been given. But the follow up work (thirumangalam formula steps) didn't happen thanks to EC's vigilance.

The work had meticulously started from the time elections were announced. As was seen in the Video clippings, currency notes in 500s and 1000s were neatly tied streetwise and area-wise with the names of voters so that the people at the final outlet had less work in distributing it. Distribution ended in lightening speed. The movement of cash was known to people in the locality once the 'bags' were dropped in the locality. Cell phone revolution had helped these thugs in moving the cash stealthily.

The impression of the 'distributors' is that people were willing to take money as a matter of right. It was evident that they considered this money as their money that is looted from them. Spectrum scam has gone well with the public as to have given them a sense of right in taking that money. But the 'distributors' doubt whether they would vote for that cash. They distributed with a sense of resignation that if not to these people, it would have gone to the EC. Let people take it and if atleast a fraction of them vote for that money, that is enough. They quote Rajinikanth voting for Two leaves while keeping a good relationship with MK. The people also have become unreliable like Rajini, they say.

The youth had been the stumbling block. The youth could not be convinced and it was difficult to distribute cash with youth around.

Sarangarajan said...

i have first hand information from my friends in Madurai (all of madurai have got Rs 200)

Alagiri's plans to infuse more money failed owing to EC's vigilance. Alagiri has given 5 lakhs to every DMK party member and asked them to distribute money - several of them did not distribute fearing EC

Alagiri has not given money to non-DMK party members

people felt that 200 was too less and they are infact irritated and several have voted against DMK.

Apart from this a Game Theory based analysis will reveal what Congress is up to in this election - Congress has worked hard to lose this election

Congress will most probably win Kerala and West Bengal. If it wins in TN also, people will think congress fudged results everywhere or used money power.

If it loses in TN (along with DMK)- the 2G scar on congress will be wiped off. Congress will make use of the english media to propagate that it lost in TN because of its partner DMK indulging in 2G scam. Congress will proclaim their hands are clean as they won Kerala and WB and lost TN because of partner.

Signalling is a strategy within Game Theory - If we read JJ's, Sonia's signals it will be very evident that they have done a team work - in fact the fight for 63 is to lose in more seats and drag the DMK's chances.

jayasree said...

I share your view Mr Sarang.
That money didn't play a role can be seen in Kolaththur where Stalin contested. From sources in Kolaththur I heard that Rs 2000 was offered. Many got money in 2 or 3 rounds which makes it more than 2000. But till the last minute, Stalin could not get a positive feel. That is why he rushed fresh money in the last minute, which was (or part of it) seized by the EC. If money had mattered, why didn't Kolaththur record high voter turn out? On the contrary, it recorded the lowest level in Chennai, which is 63%

4 constituencies recorded the lowest turn out (63%) in the whole of Chennai. One was Kolaththur, the other was Harbour, Dayanidhi's constituency. (The other 2 are T Nagar and Triplicane). The former 2 are prestigious ones. Harbour is more prestigious because Karunanidhi and Anbhazhagan held that seat. Presently it is with Dayanidhi Maran (MP constituency.) We can imagine how much money would have flowed there. But not many people went out to vote.

One reason as I told in the article was that traditional DMK supporters could not vote for or against DMK after the break out of 2G scam. Or else many who got money would have left for vacation - not wanting to vote for DMK for the money. WE can see this low level turn out only in Chennai and in star constituencies while the rest of tamilnadu went out to the polling booth in good numbers.

When Stalin and MK themselves could not attract the voters in their constituencies by means of money, we can not say that their money lured people in other places.

jayasree said...

Game theory - Yes it seems that Congress is making a situation where DMK will decay on its own. But I dont think JJ will rush to Congress. The last few days before the polls she pitched up against Congress. In the current scenario, any party (DMDK including) would like to wait and watch the developments in the national scene as Congress's woes are not yet over. It is a pity that BJP is not at all seen to be using the situation to its advantage.

Sheela said...

On BJP:

Dear Madam,

Many appreciated stand BJP had taken to contest., election campaigning done with certain decency compared to the dravidian parties., election manifesto etc... If good local leaders emerge., BJP can grow into prominence. They being painted communally is a disadvantage. Hope some miracle happens to see some healthy politics in TN in future.

jayasree said...

We have to have our goals very clear. Today DMK must be uprooted. That is the goal. We know very well that BJL does not have the strength to get into power by defeating DMK. The only option is ADMK. Think of Vijaykanth. Keeping aside his CM aspirations he sided with JJ only to uproot DMK. At each point in time and situation, we have to weigh the options and decide. At the current juncture in TN elections, defeating DMK is a necessity. I wrote accordingly towards that goal.

But BJP in the fray will help it to assess its strength in TN. That would help them in Lok sabha elections when other parties in TN seek to align with them.

But my opinion is that BJP lacks strategists, think tanks and leaders at the national level. They must have by now cashed in on the corruption issues against Congress. சாமர்த்யம் போதாது.

In my opinion, the so-called intellectuals who support the BJP, lose sight of long term strategies, fail to think out of the box and lack acumen for politicking and speak when they must not. I can not help appreciating the presence of converse of all these in the Congress camp. One recent example is Sonia's letter to Anna at a right time in right wordings. Congress has politicking - brains whereas BJP has multiple brains which try to one-up each other then and there at every issue.

Sheela said...

Dear Mam,

i agree BJP need masterminds to steerforward. one more worry is BJP votes which will average atleast thousands in few constituencies are anti DMK votes which dilates the ADMK's goal. we will hope for the good to happen.

Sheela

SN said...

One month gap for counting makes this election very interesting. Many theories are floating around from every section. One of my friend who is a DMK supporter did not vote for DMK because DMK was not contesting in his area and he voted for BJP. So at least 1% of DMK voters did not vote for it. Like this neutral votes could have gone to BJP ( one prediction says 2 seats for BJP !!!) and other smaller alliances. This makes the contest very interesting.
But my bet goes to AIADMK+ 173 and DMK+ 63

SN said...

As per my pet theory, 7% more voter turnout and heavy voting % indicated that the electorate from Chennai to Kanyakumari wanted to convey something or same-thing, Election results reflected that the DMK biting the dust was the message people wanted to convey. By distributing huge sums of money DMK openly canvassed themselves as most corrupt persons. Kudos to Tamilnadu voters.