The following is my comment to Ashok Malik's article in www.forbesindia.com . The main article by Mr Malik can be read below.
It was not an aam admi vote that AAP got in Delhi. It was a communal vote, with Muslims voting en bloc for the AAP. It was openly declared by Muslim clerics in the last few days before the elections that Muslims must vote for AAP. Five out of eight Congress victories being Muslims show that it was a communal vote of Muslims preferring Muslims among Congress candidates and opting for AAP in other places. Is this a victory for aam admi? Why no writer is writing on this core issue? Moreover, out of 28 seats that AAP won, it won with less than 1000 vote margin in 4 seats and with a margin between 1000 to 2000 votes in 4 other seats. The margin is not high in many other constituencies. This inside story is not discussed by MSM, why? Had the Muslims not voted for AAP, even these 8 seats would have been lost. In the final analysis, the muckraker candidates would not lose out as a natural corollary, if the communal vote is going to persist. This is a real danger for Indian democracy.
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Can AAP Go National in 2014?
by Ashok Malik
More than serious and long-term contenders, they appear to represent the muckraker tradition that so energised American politics in the early 20th century
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Image: Getty Images
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Arvind Kejriwal with party leaders during Aam Aadmi Party's victory rally after the party's good show in Delhi Assembly polls
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I s the extraordinary debut of Arvind Kejriwal and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the Delhi assembly election a revolt, a revolution or a flash in the pan? Can it be expanded to new geographies and states? Can it be scaled up to leave its impact on the 2014 Lok Sabha election? Is AAP's success a function of the small constituencies and unique socio-economic conditions of Delhi—or is it a larger political phenomenon?
If AAP had won say six or even 10 seats in the Delhi election, the answers and conclusions would have been fairly easy. The diffidence in making predictions has occurred because AAP did much better than anybody expected—whether critics or adherents—and took home 40 percent of the assembly's seats.
If AAP had won say six or even 10 seats in the Delhi election, the answers and conclusions would have been fairly easy. The diffidence in making predictions has occurred because AAP did much better than anybody expected—whether critics or adherents—and took home 40 percent of the assembly's seats.
To try and guess where Kejriwal and the AAP movement will go, it would be helpful to analyse why they won 28 seats in Delhi and the motivations of those who voted for them. The vote for AAP was not a vote for local candidates or grassroots stalwarts. It was a vote for Kejriwal. Quite simply, he emerged as the personality of the Delhi election. In turn, the vote for Kejriwal was not a vote for hope or a bet on a vision of a golden future—it was a gigantic and devastating protest vote.
In the days before polling, the most common explanation of people who said they would vote for Kejriwal was: "At least he says things that need to be said." They were not concerned with his economic philosophy—many who backed him are still innocent of it—and did not instinctually believe the institution of the Lok Pal would finish corruption and eradicate the black market for gas cylinders. They just saw Kejriwal as a brave "person like us" who named names, spoke about cronyism in high places and attacked everybody and her son-in-law. Broadly, he sliced into the Congress vote, while the BJP vote remained roughly where it was.
Kejriwal's appeal can work in Delhi and Gurgaon and perhaps parts of Mumbai. Maybe it can work in Bangalore as well, provided he can find the linguistic connect and local faces that can use a mix of populism, indignation and cynicism to forge an unlikely alliance between slums and gated neighbourhoods. Of course, local faces who speak the local language may not need the AAP label at all. Some of them may fancy they can project themselves in the immediate community while being autonomous of Kejriwal. In the process, they could further fragment the vote.
In a Chennai or a Kolkata, local politics is dominated by strong regional parties that are not affected by the current anti-Congress mood and are served by a tight network of party workers and transactional syndicates. Here Kejriwal will find it still harder to make inroads.
Three points flow from this. First, the smaller the constituency size, the greater will be the impact of AAP or an AAP-type electoral intervention. Few states in India have assembly constituencies and electorates as small as Delhi's. In municipal elections in big urban centres, Kejriwal and those inspired by him could make a significant dent. As voting blocs get consolidated into larger parliamentary constituencies, this will become difficult. As such, the Lok Sabha election of 2014 may be far tougher for Kejriwal not just across urban India but even in Delhi itself.
Second, does Kejriwal threaten Narendra Modi or does he represent a microcosm of the same appeal? Like Modi—but admittedly unlike the BJP as a political party—Kejriwal positions himself as the untainted outsider, the man from nowhere, the truth teller, the unabashed and unafraid angry Indian, without a well-chronicled family history, bashing away at a culture of privilege. The two men tap into exactly the same sentiment. This is a reality accepted by AAP functionaries. They admit many of those who voted for them in the Delhi assembly polls, particularly the young and the restless, indicated they would opt for Modi in six months.
Third, Kejriwal and AAP are confronted with competing choices: Focus energies on the (expected) second assembly election as well as Lok Sabha election in Delhi; or stretch resources thin and go in for a rapid expansion. Option two has the makings of a bubble that could burst very quickly. As for option one, yes, it could lead to a possible victory and government formation in Delhi, and yield a couple of Lok Sabha seats. Equally, if the BJP rectifies some of the mistakes it made in December 2013, it could leave AAP even further behind in a possible May 2014 Delhi state campaign that will have the additional advantage of piggybacking on Modi's national campaign.
Ultimately, where does one place Kejriwal and AAP? More than serious and long-term contenders, they appear to represent the muckraker tradition that so energised American politics in the early 20th century. Activists, writers, woolly-headed but well-meaning socialists, utopians: The muckrakers were a reaction to the excesses of the Gilded Age, a period of enormous economic growth as well as massive corruption in the United States.
Backed by a seething public as well as by sections of big business, which wanted greater transparency and reform, the muckrakers attacked the cosy arrangements of the establishment. They produced pamphlets and made a habit of political overstatement, attacking the rich and the famous, the great and the good, the high and the mighty. Political opponents accused them of hype and exaggeration.
With their crackpot policy agenda, muckraker candidates didn't make it very far electorally. However, they did provide a check on the extremes of a completely unwholesome rendition of capitalism and of industrial democracy, and acted as catalysts in a cleansing of American public life. The muckrakers came to symbolise a cathartic moment that was greater than their individual electoral legacy. In six months to a year, will we be saying the same thing about Arvind Kejriwal?
In the days before polling, the most common explanation of people who said they would vote for Kejriwal was: "At least he says things that need to be said." They were not concerned with his economic philosophy—many who backed him are still innocent of it—and did not instinctually believe the institution of the Lok Pal would finish corruption and eradicate the black market for gas cylinders. They just saw Kejriwal as a brave "person like us" who named names, spoke about cronyism in high places and attacked everybody and her son-in-law. Broadly, he sliced into the Congress vote, while the BJP vote remained roughly where it was.
Kejriwal's appeal can work in Delhi and Gurgaon and perhaps parts of Mumbai. Maybe it can work in Bangalore as well, provided he can find the linguistic connect and local faces that can use a mix of populism, indignation and cynicism to forge an unlikely alliance between slums and gated neighbourhoods. Of course, local faces who speak the local language may not need the AAP label at all. Some of them may fancy they can project themselves in the immediate community while being autonomous of Kejriwal. In the process, they could further fragment the vote.
In a Chennai or a Kolkata, local politics is dominated by strong regional parties that are not affected by the current anti-Congress mood and are served by a tight network of party workers and transactional syndicates. Here Kejriwal will find it still harder to make inroads.
Three points flow from this. First, the smaller the constituency size, the greater will be the impact of AAP or an AAP-type electoral intervention. Few states in India have assembly constituencies and electorates as small as Delhi's. In municipal elections in big urban centres, Kejriwal and those inspired by him could make a significant dent. As voting blocs get consolidated into larger parliamentary constituencies, this will become difficult. As such, the Lok Sabha election of 2014 may be far tougher for Kejriwal not just across urban India but even in Delhi itself.
Second, does Kejriwal threaten Narendra Modi or does he represent a microcosm of the same appeal? Like Modi—but admittedly unlike the BJP as a political party—Kejriwal positions himself as the untainted outsider, the man from nowhere, the truth teller, the unabashed and unafraid angry Indian, without a well-chronicled family history, bashing away at a culture of privilege. The two men tap into exactly the same sentiment. This is a reality accepted by AAP functionaries. They admit many of those who voted for them in the Delhi assembly polls, particularly the young and the restless, indicated they would opt for Modi in six months.
Third, Kejriwal and AAP are confronted with competing choices: Focus energies on the (expected) second assembly election as well as Lok Sabha election in Delhi; or stretch resources thin and go in for a rapid expansion. Option two has the makings of a bubble that could burst very quickly. As for option one, yes, it could lead to a possible victory and government formation in Delhi, and yield a couple of Lok Sabha seats. Equally, if the BJP rectifies some of the mistakes it made in December 2013, it could leave AAP even further behind in a possible May 2014 Delhi state campaign that will have the additional advantage of piggybacking on Modi's national campaign.
Ultimately, where does one place Kejriwal and AAP? More than serious and long-term contenders, they appear to represent the muckraker tradition that so energised American politics in the early 20th century. Activists, writers, woolly-headed but well-meaning socialists, utopians: The muckrakers were a reaction to the excesses of the Gilded Age, a period of enormous economic growth as well as massive corruption in the United States.
Backed by a seething public as well as by sections of big business, which wanted greater transparency and reform, the muckrakers attacked the cosy arrangements of the establishment. They produced pamphlets and made a habit of political overstatement, attacking the rich and the famous, the great and the good, the high and the mighty. Political opponents accused them of hype and exaggeration.
With their crackpot policy agenda, muckraker candidates didn't make it very far electorally. However, they did provide a check on the extremes of a completely unwholesome rendition of capitalism and of industrial democracy, and acted as catalysts in a cleansing of American public life. The muckrakers came to symbolise a cathartic moment that was greater than their individual electoral legacy. In six months to a year, will we be saying the same thing about Arvind Kejriwal?
4 comments:
Dear Madam,
Have you by any chance come across the horoscope of Arvind Kejrival?
This fellow scares me the most of all the polticians.
Thanks
Sheela
Dear Ms Sheela,
The birth details were given by a reader in the comment section of Advani - Modi tussle article
http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=3442555339667770589&postID=604140475994664550&page=1&token=1388489914986
My analysis was posted there and I am reproducing it here.
The birth details:- 16 Aug 1968 23:46:00 Place: Hissar
I wrote :-
If the birth details you have given are true, Kejriwal is a short term spark. His present shot into fame can last between June 2012 to Feb 2015.He will become irrelevant after 2020 when his Saturn dasa starts. Saturn, though a raja yoga causing planet for his lagna is also a Bhaadhak and posited in the 12th. It is in debility and in vakra. Saturn's position in debility is compensated in Navamsa by joining exalted Sun. That is why the current shot into authority.
Till April 2017 he would go on. After that Mars Bhukthi comes which is in debility in Rashi and Dasamsa (for profession). He would make lot of enemies and would lose sheen by then. His 10th lord saturn too is in debility in Dasama. The Dasama 10th lord Mars in also in debility in Dasama in the 6th house.All these do not bode well for him to be a successful leader or a powerful politician.
His horoscope (if this is the one)does not match with Indian horoscope. His is comparable with Sharad Pawar's who aspired for a big role but ended up as a regional satarap and licking the feet of Congress. What else Kejriwal is doing other than licking the Congress feet?
If he is a morally upright man who respects the people's mandate he must have aligned with the BJP and formed govt with it on a common minimum program. The Mandate of the Delhiites is clearly anti-congress mandate. The electorate equally placed their faith on both BJP and AAP. The inference from this mandate is that both AAP and BJP must govern together. But even before the results were out, AAP accused BJP of horse trading. Soon after the results, Kejrwal bluntly refused to take or give support to BJP or Congress. But he is happy to take the support of Congress against which the people had stamped their vote. Whatever he says on asking people etc, it is fooling others. The fact is that his victory is because of the Muslim vote. The Muslims shifted from Congress to AAP. If Kejriwal joins BJP to form Govt he would have drawn flak from his muslim friends - perhaps his muslim bloc has discouraged him to align with BJP.
The so called urban people can not think more than what meets the eye. The Delhi people have behaved like the vote bank of Vijaykanth which is intoxicated with his filmy dialogues. These urban people can not even punish the congress when a terrible terror struck them - I refer to Mumbai people here. It is shocking how no one talks about the Muslim vote that won seats for the AAP. AAP is an explosive mix of communalism and communism. Let the people pay for their folly.
From Gautam Sen's article posted yesterday:-
The virtually instant announcement, after the swearing-in of Arvind Kejriwal and his juvenile crew, following their inept, comic preening for the media, was a hunger-strike in Bhopal and the decision to contest elections in Gujarat. The goal of AAP is now blindingly obvious. The intention is to split the anti-Congress vote to prevent Modi and the BJP winning enough seats in 2014 to form a viable government. The other alternative outcome would be to reduce their number sufficiently to facilitate the barely-concealed claim of his implacable opponents inside the BJP to propose an alternative candidate for prime minister, ostensibly to help form a governing coalition. The Indian domestic political support for the AAP intervention is from the counterparts of the so-called young and liberal in Cairo’s Tahir Square. They are really all a product of India’s manipulative and manipulated English language media, much of it in hock to banks and foreign conglomerate owners.
How the AAP originated and their personal international ties are indeed a matter of interest, but not the only issue. The Magasaysay award is a known instrument for affording recognition to Asians sensitive to the US portrayal of the world. Volunteering to work for Mother Teresa is also an agreeable item on a CV, indicating desirable political impulses to Western governments. At the very least, the US has intervened in a dynamically unstable Indian polity to affect outcomes. Funding a useful political or voluntary local entity through an Indian business house is standard practice for foreign countries. They reimburse the business house by engaging with it in an unrelated profitable transaction. The Saudis regularly employ such business deals in India on behalf of Pakistan and the US does so as well in scores of countries. It offers complete anonymity and its legality hard to question.
The final solution to a difficult and high stakes political standoff will be to assassinate Narendra Modi. The attempt already made in Patna is almost certain to have had foreign participation and the background to it presents a truly shocking picture of high level local complicity. Attempts to assassinate Modi are likely to occur again. Determined efforts continue to incite Islamic radicals to make such an attempt, by funding endless court proceedings to ensure the accusations over the 2002 Gujarat riots remain alive.
The logistical backup for any plan to murder Narendra Modi will likely originate in Pakistan, already rejoicing at the colossal damage to Indian intelligence the UPA attempt to curb him has inflicted. It is also extremely suspect that invitations to Narendra Modi to visit came from three close US allies, two of them with little compelling reason for extending them. The US itself persists in using the issue of his visa to cause him whatever negative publicity possible. Quite clearly, assassinating him abroad might have been considered more logistically feasible and less damaging politically than in India. The intention is to end the career of the most popular Indian politician since independence and one that threatens to assert it.
- See more at: http://www.indiafacts.co.in/stopping-modi-at-all-costs/#sthash.m3XusZsG.Jeds6udr.dpuf
My recent article in The Astrological Magazine on the probability of terror attacks on political personalities in April- May 2014 can be read in the Jan 2014 issue. The online or print edition of the magazine can be ordered here:
http://www.astrologicalmagazine.com/previous_edition.html
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