Monday, January 4, 2016

Day – 5 of Garbottam year 2015-16 - disappointing for Chennai but good for SW Monsoon.

The 5th day of Garbottam started a little after 5 PM on 2nd January 2016 and ended after 5 PM on 3rd January 2016.

The 195th day effect in my place of observation will be on 12th July 2016.
The corresponding fortnight is from 16th August to 30th August 2016.

The 5th day of Garbottam looked like a continuation of the 4th day with very less symptoms of ‘pregnancy’ of clouds or rainfall. The air very still and day was quite hot. No clouds were seen anywhere in the sky right from the morning. The night also was cloudless as stars were clearly visible. Around noon there was hot breeze.

For a good Garbottam at least one feature must be there : there must be clouds, winds or some ‘activity’ in the atmosphere either as a drizzle or a rumbling thunder or a lightening or glossy clouds or a reddish sun rise or sunset. The only feature noticed was cool nights and no snowfall or mist.
For the month of Margazhi chillness must be there. It indicates normal rains next year. If snowfall or mists are noticed, the rainfall season will be deficient. Snowfall and mist are reserved for Thai month. On the 5th day of Garbottam, one feature that was observed was cooler night. Let us see how far this helps in rainfall on 12th July or in the 2nd half of August.

Today’s Garbottam is important on one account as its corresponding fortnight falls in the early part of the month of Aavani when a phenomenon called “AavaNi muzhakkam” (ஆவணி முழக்கம்) must happen for good rainfall later. This is applicable to Tamilnadu. One can find this mentioned in Tamil Panchangam.  This happens on the 6th day of AavaNi. The calendar date is 22nd August 2016. On that day thunderbolts must be heard. Rainfall is not expected on this day, but the roar of thunderbolts must be heard. That roar is signified as Muzhakkam of AavaNi. It indicates good rainfall in the rest of the season.

Going by today’s (5th day) Garbottam, rains are not expected in the 2nd half of August (16th to 30 August 2016). But it is enough thunderbolts are heard. The hot wind at noon and coolness at night are the features that were present on this day. It must be seen if they have an impact on thunder- cloud formation on that fortnight. The rationale of Garbottam is that it indicates opposites.  

The observation of the 5 factors for day- 5 are as follows:

(1) Wind:- Not gentle but hot winds around noon. The night time air was still.
Result:- This is not a good factor for rainfall.

(2) Rain:- Nil.
Result:- Does not indicate rains in the said period.

(3) Lightening:- Nil.
Result:-  Does not indicate rains in the said period.

(4) Thunder:- Nil.
Result:- Does not indicate rains in the said period.

(5) Clouds:- Cloudless. Horizon looked dim as if clouds were there. But as day was coming to an end, it appeared that there were no clouds near the horizon.  

3-some features:-

(1) Terrestrial :- Behaviour of birds satisfactory but appeared restricted due to hot and dry conditions.

(2) Atmospheric :- Of the 12 features noted in my blog onGarbottam, nothing could be made out. Clouds scorched by the sun are a feature of Garbottam. At times it appeared that clouds were vaporised by sunlight. Region around the horizon looked deceptive. The weather on the corresponding period would give some clarity on what this appearance was in reality.

(3) Planetary:- (1) Stars appeared  whitish and as faint discs. (2) Except Jupiter all the other planets were in Southern declinations. Planets in northern declinations are desirable for good rainfall. (3) Conjunction of Moon with Mars in Chitra star on this day can be termed as malefic.  


(1) The period between  16th August and 30th  August 2016 is going to be dry in my place of observation. Two factors (1) the hot air at day and coolness at night and (2) conjunction of Moon with malefic Mars in the windy sign are likely to cause strong winds and thunderbolts and rain clouds getting shattered by winds.

(2) The 195th day, namely 12th July 2016 is likely to be dry in my place of observation.

(3) But the SW Monsoon would be doing well as August 16th 2016 marks a special combination of planets. On that day Sun enters Leo, 4 planets (Venus, Rahu, Mercury and Jupiter) will be within 30 degrees of the Sun. In fact all the planets will be behind the sun. This line-up even started as early as the 1st week of July 2016. If all the planets are behind the Sun or in front of the Sun, and if this happens in the rainy season, there will be plentiful rains and floods caused by heavy rains.

SW Monsoon of 2010 started on 30th June when all the planets came behind the Sun.

The monsoon season of 2011 also started with all planets in front of the Sun. 2011 was a year of floods.

In 2016, all planets are going to be behind the Sun right from the first week of July when an additional feature of good rains namely Budha- Shukra sameepyam is also going to happen.

A feature of the floods of 2011 (and also of Chennai Nov- Dec 2015) is that the ground was already saturated due to rains. The Budha – Shukra closeness for some time saturates the ground with good rains. When the additional feature of rain fall yoga (all planets behind or in front of the Sun) occurs, it triggers floods. In Chennai floods, it was yet another feature which I will discuss through 9th to 13th days of Garbottam.

One more important feature is the conjunction of Mercury or Venus with Rahu or Ketu. Mercury was conjunct with Ketu (opposite to Rahu) on 30th June 2010 putting an end to the hiatus caused by cyclone Laila. SW Monsoon was revived on that day.

Earlier in that year (2010) conjunction of Venus and Ketu on 31st May 2010 coincided with the start of SW Monsoon.

2011 was a year of floods during SW Monsoon season. When floods were ravaging Orissa and Bihar, Venus and Ketu were in conjunction.

For the current Garbottam- impact period, the close line up of planets behind the Sun from 16th August 2016 coincides with the conjunction of Venus and Rahu in the fixed sign Leo. The line-up behind the Sun that started from July 7th is going to last till September 12th 2016. A repeat of 2010 and 2011 rains (and floods) can be expected in the regions where SW monsoon is due.

Any period of hiatus in the first half of August will be ended by 16th August when Venus conjuncts with Rahu. (Because this conjunction indicates a trigger factor).

It must be seen whether the pattern of 2010 and 2011 is repeated in 2016 for the period between July and September 12th.

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