Rainfall check -7 (North East Monsoon)

New Update added on 21st November  at the end of the article. 


Previous articles:-

Rainfall check - part 1  (Pre-Monsoon showers)

Rainfall check - part 2  (Cyclone Roanu in Bay of Bengal)

Rainfall check - part 3  (Late arrival of SW Monsoon)

Rainfall check - part 4  (For July 2016)

Rainfall check - part 5 (For August 2016)

Rainfall check - Part 6 (For September 2016)

In this article, I am going to combine the Garbottam forecasts for the remaining 3 months (October, November and December) as that would give an idea of how the North East Monsoon is going to behave for Chennai and South India. Before doing that let me recap the rainfall scenario so far from astrological point of view.

Macro level predictions.

The macro level predictions are based on Year prediction, Megha prediction, Meghadhipathi prediction (Navanayaka) and Arudra Pravesha prediction.

Durmukhi Varusha phalan.

The Year prediction for Durmukhi varusham has been given as a verse in Tamil by Idai-k-kaadanaar which is as follows:

It says that there would be less rains in the beginning and more rains later. The reality check was that the monsoon was indeed late and picked up late.

The verse further says that there would be no deficit for Gurjara desha. In reality, Gujarat which was reeling under deficit for the past 2 years realised good rainfall after a delayed onset.

This does not mean that cotton production would be high this year, so says the verse. The verse says that items of white colour would be scarce this year. This is also coming true now.

The specific reference to Gujarat and indication of rainfall at later part might refer to the late rainfall realised by Gujarat and its neighbouring States that were reeling under drought since last 2 years. 

After seeing the SWM behaviour in these regions, I think this reference need not be about the NEM season. However the specific reference to increase in agricultural produce ( vELaNmai yErumE) in the first line gives an overall outline that food production would not suffer a deficit in general. This means the final tally of rainfall realisation would be sufficient for the whole country.

Megha- effect:

The Megha of this year (Durmukhi) is Neela Megha which will give mixed results. It would rain where there were no rains before but fail to rain in those places where it usually rains. This also came true. The Western Ghats in Kerala and Western Karnataka which used to be lashed generously by SWM received less rainfall. On the other hand the generally deficit regions to their east such as Telangna and North western states received very good rainfall.

This trend of Neela Megha also implies that the NEM season would also be such that it would rain where it normally does not rain, but fail in those regions where there used to be heavy rains. But this must be corroborated by other features.

In comparison, the next year’s KaaLa Megha (2017) would fare better as it is supposed to give copious rains accompanied with storms / cyclones. Drona Megha of 2018 would be more bountiful and marked with floods.

Meghadhipathi effect:

Mars is this year’s Meghadhipathi. Rainfall realisation by Mars would always be accompanied with storms or thunders. The rainfall would be uneven giving rise to drought conditions in some places. So far this has come true.

Arudra Pravesham of Sun.

This refers to Sun’s entry into the star Arudra. It happened on 21^st June this year at 11 PM. The ruling planet was Mars which causes rains accompanied with storms at some places and dryness at some other places.

One can see all the above features are more or less on similar lines. The SWM season also exhibited the same general trend.

Planetary features of the SWM season:

The foremost feature is the Budha- Shukra Sameephya (closeness between Mercury and Venus). This closeness occurs thrice this year, 2 times occurring in SWM season and one time at NEM season.

They are,

(1) 10^th May to 7^th June

(2) 7^th July to 12^th September

(3) 27^th October to 29^th December.

The first occasion was marked with cyclone Roanu (Read here).

Then there was a lull due to opposition of Malefics such as Saturn and Mars Scorpio.

(From Rainfall check - 3)

Rainfall picked up after this in western region with these planets transiting Gemini, the sign of west.

The 2^nd occasion started off well but with 2 dampeners that ultimately decided the behaviour of the SW Monsoon.

They are (1) Venus came out of combustion in 2^nd Mandala, on the day closeness began (7^th July). When re-emergence of Venus from combustion happens in the 2^nd Mandala, the rains will be below average. (Read my article here)

(2) On the next day, that is on 8^th July Saturn entered Anusha which is Vayu nadi. (Read the sapta nadi chakra here.) This mars rainfall. This transit of Saturn ended only on 17^th September. It means throughout the closeness period of Mercury and Venus, Saturn had played a spoilsport.

The 3^rd occasion of closeness starts on 27^th October and ends on 29^th December. That could prove to be the NE monsoon period. Before going into the details of this period let me list down the planetary indicators that occurred on days of rainfall in the SW season this year (2016).

1	April 4, 2016	End of combustion of Mercury	First showers of the season lashed Swat valley of POK. Floods followed.
2	April 24, 2016	Venus enters Aries to join Sun and Mercury	First showers started in Assam. Floods followed.
3	April 30, 2016	Mercury starts retrogression	Thunder showers in North eastern States.
4	May 8, 2016	Venus in deep conjunction with Sun	Formation of low pressure trough in South Andaman sea.
5	May 10, 2016	Closeness of Mercury and Venus begins	Widespread rains in East and South India.
6	May 13- 14th , 2016	Deep conjunction of Mercury and Venus with Venus coming in front of Mercury	Formation of cyclone Roanu in the Bay.
7	May 18, 2016	Moon in opposition to Venus	Heavy rains in South Tamilnadu and Chennai.
8	May 20, 2016	Venus coming opposite to Malefics (Saturn and Mars in Scorpio)	Reduction in rainfall. Raomu moves along the coast.
9	May 21, 2016	Venus enters next sign and in conjunction with Sun	Cyclone Roanu makes landfall in Bangladesh.
10	May 22 to 24, 2016	Venus in opposition to Mars	Heat wave conditions.
11	May 21 to June 7, 2016	Venus in opposition to malefics.	Reduction in rainfall
12	June 7, 2016	Venus crossed Sun, Mercury entered the next sign to join Sun and Venus.	Outbreak of SW Monsoon.
13	June 18, 2016	Jupiter to cross Rahu within 1 degree.	Rainfall picks up.
14	June 19, 2016	Jupiter nearing Rahu within 1 degree in Purva Phalguni.	SWM enters Mumbai
15	June 25, 2016	Mercury begins combustion. Deep conjunction of Jupiter with Rahu.	Heavy rains begin in Vindhya region / Central India .
16	July 7, 2016	Mercury – Venus closeness begins.	Low Pressure in NW Bay. Heavy rains begin in Madhya Pradesh and Uttrakhand.
17.	July 7, 2016	Venus re-emerges from combustion in Punarpoosam.	Must reduce rainfall
18.	July 8, 2016	Saturn enters Anusham	Must reduce rainfall till September 17.
19.	July 16, 17	Mercury crosses Venus	Rainfall in eastern India. Heavy rains in Assam, Bihar.
20.	July 31, August 1, 2016	Venus enters next sign to join Mercury, Rahu, Jupiter.	Rains in North and NW India
21	August 9, 2016	Mercury crosses Rahu.	First Monsoon Depression in NW Bay near Oddhisha.
22.	August 16, 2016 to September 9, 2016	All planets  behind Sun. Supposed to give flood like situation.	Fresh Low Pressure in Bay intensifies and gives rains across central India, East India  and Andhra.
23.	August 20, 2016	Mercury enters Virgo	Rains in Vijayawada, Andhra, North Tamilnadu
24.	August 25, 2016	Venus enters Virgo	Rains in Andhra
25.	August 30, 31, 2017	Mercury begins retrogression.	Rains in Chennai
26.	September 8, 2016	Mercury enters previous sign in retrogression.	Lack of Rainfall.
27.	September 12, 2016	End of closeness between Mercury and Venus.	Rainfall ends in North India.
28.	September 21, 2016	Mercury ends retrogression and turns forward.	Heavy rains in Andhra, Telangana
29.	September 28, 2016	Mercury and Venus reach the maximum gap between themselves of 48 degrees	Withdrawal of SW Monsoon begins in North west India.

North East Monsoon indicators.

The current period between SWM and NEM is marked with occasional thunder showers in Chennai and in parts of east peninsular India. This can be attributed to the forward motion of Mercury in Leo which signifies eastern direction. Even though I am tempted to locate the arrival of NEM on 27^th October, as Mercury- Venus closeness begins on that date, the Daily Garbottam chart for October shows change of direction of winds for the first time on 25^th October itself. Until April 16^th, the wind direction was North- North East. This will become opposite during the rainfall realisation period which is running now. So correspondingly, till October 24^th, the wind direction would be from South- Southwest. From October 25^th onwards, the direction changes to North- North east. This must be cross-checked in reality.

The Garbottam for Chennai (my place of observation) also shows that there will be rains in the second half of Navarathri and on the previous night of Diwali.

The 8th day of Solar Garbottam observed on 6^th January showed that there would be rains in the last part of Navarathri. That is re-affirmed in daily Garbottam given in the chart below. In fact the present fortnight between 26^th September and 10^th October corresponds to the 8^th day of Solar Garbottam. The movement of dark clouds of aquatic shapes across the face of the sun on that day on 6^th January is bearing results by way of rainfall now in Chennai.

Swan shaped (inverted) dark cloud across the sun around 1-30 PM on 6^th January.

In general October would be wet. The rainfall realisation dates can be known from the chart below.

It is noticed that the rainfall would be mild to moderate and not torrential in October.

A major depressing feature in this period is that Mercury will be in Hasta star from 9^th October to 17^th October which would reduce the incidence and intensity of rainfall.  This indicates dryness after Navarathri.  The sign being Virgo, the region coming under this spell is South India and South east Tamilnadu.

Another dampener is Sun which will affect rainfall between October 23^rd and November 6^th as it will be transiting Swati in Vayu nadi in Libra. This would result in windiness and less rainfall. As Libra signifies West, South west and west Tamilnadu gets this effect. However by16th November a major turnaround happens. On 16^th November Sun enters Scorpio to join with Saturn. From then onwards until 10^th December, sun, Saturn and Mars would be in alternating signs. This is a strong rainfall yoga which existed during Chennai floods last year (November -December 2015). On the days Moon moves through 5^th, 7^th and 9^th signs from t these planets, there would be heavy rains.

Mercury – Venus closeness continues in this period and there is no spoilsport around. This ensures good rainfall. The Garbottam chart for Chennai and suburbs do not show scope for rainfall in this period. The stars transited by Moon point out to east and South east India / Tamilnadu.

The next probable dates are shown below.

On 23^rd, 24^th and 25^th November, Moon would be in the 9^th sign from Mars and not from Sun and Saturn. But Moon joins Jupiter which is a rainfall yoga. Venus is ahead of Mercury in their closeness. So these features could give rainfall on these dates, though it would be less intense than the dates given in the previous chart.

Once again Chennai looks dry in the November Garbottam chart except on 25^th. Moon in Virgo at that time indicates Southern parts of Tamilnadu that cover river Kaveri and other rivers of the south.

The next possible date is December 12^th, but Mars had by then moved out of the alternating sign. 

Anyway in the period between 16^th November and 10^th December, this rainfall yoga exists favouring Southern parts of Tamilnadu or regions south of Chennai.

November rainfall:-

The Garbottam chart of November shows that there is scope for a Depression around November 3^rd. Though it does not give good rains to Chennai, it is possible other coastal regions could get rainfall.

In all probability November would be dry in Chennai. The trend continues in December also. There would be moderate rains in Chennai in the 2^nd week and middle of December. This tallies with Solar Garbottam (Read here)

Rainfall indicated by planetary movement is given in the chart below.

1.	Oct 3, 2016	Mercury re-enters Virgo.	Moderate rainfall in South TN.
2	Oct 7, 2016	Mercury begins combustion.	Spurt in rainfall in South TN
3.	Oct 9, 2016 to 17th	Mercury in Hasta.	Rainfall affected.
4.	Oct 10, 2016	Jupiter ends combustion.	Spurt in rainfall in South TN including Kaveri basin.
5.	Oct 12-13, 2016	Venus enters next sign – Scorpio	Spurt in rainfall in West Tamilnadu.
6.	Oct 25 – 27, 2016	Mercury in deep conjunction with Sun	Cyclonic or stormy rains in South and South west Tamilnadu. Or some meteorological event.
7.	Oct 27, 2016	Mercury- Venus closeness begins.	Rainfall period (NEM) begins.
8.	Oct 29, 2016	Venus enters deep conjunction with Saturn in the star Jyeshta.	Rainfall in West Tamilnadu as Jyeshta signifies west. The sign Scorpio signifies North; therefore north TN and regions north to it also come under rains.
9.	Nov 1, 2016	Mars enters alternating sign with Saturn.	Some meteorological event can be expected.
10.	Nov 7, 2016	Venus enters next sign	Rainfall in eastern section of TN / east coast of Peninsular India.
11.	Nov 9, 2016	Mercury enters next sign	Some Rainfall activity in North TN.
12.	Nov 16, 2016 to Dec 10, 2016	Sun enters Scorpio to join Saturn and comes in alternating sign to Mars	Good rainfall  in South and South west TN.
13.	Nov 19, 2016	Mercury comes out of combustion.	Spurt in rainfall in South Western TN / interiors.
14.	Nov 28, 2016	Mercury enters next sign (Sagittarius) to join Venus	Spurt in rainfall in eastern section.
15.	Nov 28, 2016 to Dec 11, 2016	Venus enters Uttrashada	Cloudiness and less rains.
16.	Dec 2, 2016	Venus enters next sign and comes behind Mars	Dry weather South.
17.	Dec 8, 9 - 2016	Moon in watery sign – 5th from Saturn-Sun	Rainfall likely in northern TN.

The important period in this NEM season is between November 16^th and December 10^th. This period has 2 major Rainfall combinations.

(1) Mercury – Venus closeness.

(2) Sun, Saturn and Mars in alternating signs.

The 2^nd combination points to south and south west Tamilnadu. Chennai does not come under this spell. The Daily Garbottam charts also do not show continuous or torrential rains to Chennai during this NEM season. Therefore a repeat of Chennai floods of 2015 can not be expected this year. Moreover the rule is that if it rains well during Sun’s movement in particular stars in a year, the rains will be subdued in the next year when Sun moves in the same star. As per this rule, heavy rains from 2^nd half of Nov to 1^st half of Dec is ruled out.

December Garbottam shows that rains pick up around Christmas in Chennai. Last year (2015) it rained in South TN around Christmas and not in Chennai. As per the Sun’s transit rule (Karti rule) written above, this reversal is possible this year.

While further updates would be given here upon cross checking reality picture, I am thrilled to say that the pre-monsoon predictions for next year (2017) had started last week! The cloudy conditions with passing drizzles experienced in the last week of September correspond to the first week of April 2017 which is likely to see pre-monsoon showers in Chennai!

UPDATE on 6th October 2016.

An important observation was that Mercury's re-entry into the next sign on October 3rd did not bring out rainfall. The learning is that Mercury or Venus on their entry into previous sign in retrogression and subsequent return to the next sign do not bring out rainfall. It was not so when they move to the next sign in normal course. 

The next feature noticed was that there is renewed rainfall activity in Gujarat even though SWM had started withdrawing. This is as per Durmukhi varusha phalan that says that Gujarat would receive rainfall. The prediction of rainfall in late part seems to refer to Gujarat as it receives rainfall in the later part of SWM even after it had started withdrawing.

The 3rd observation as on today is that it rained in central TN and not South TN on 5th October as written in October Garbottam chart. The specific reference to South TN was written on the rationale that it rained in South TN in the corresponding date on March 28th. If it rains on a day, there wont be rains on the 195th day in that place. Therefore the places that received rainfall on 5th Oct would not have received rains on March 28th. The places that received rainfall on 5th Oct are in central TN.

From IMD Source

UPDATE on 13th October:-

Interestingly,  the astrological predictions of rainfall based on planetary motion are happening on dot till today. Point 4 in the column on rainfall prospects from Oct to Dec based on planetary movement says that there will be rainfall in the Kaveri basin and this is triggered by Jupiter coming out of combustion. It started raining in the Kaveri delta region and also in the catchment areas of Kaveri in Karnataka right from that time. The garbottam for Chennai also came true as far as my place of observation is concerned with feeble / traces of rainfall on most of the days mentioned. Similarly the prediction of rains in West Tamilnadu is also happening.

UPDATE on 25th October:-

Mercury getting closer to the Sun in deep conjunction today, the 25th October, I expected a meteorological event to develop and wrote so in the table in the above article. A cyclonic storm which was moving towards Myanmar had taken a U turn and set on a course to Indian east coast from today onwards. The IMD report  released now is given below.

Named as Kyant, this is expected to cross the shore just North of Tamilnadu by 29th October. One can check this in the article above where I have noted that on 29th when Venus enters deep conjunction with Saturn, there will be rains in north of Tamilnadu. 

A great insight from the current developments is that the rules of rainfall astrology discussed in this series based on ancient wisdom of Vedic sages pertain to Indian sub continent only. This is understood in the current scenario wherein the storm was not recognised by the astrological features when it was going towards Myanmar. But the moment the conducive planetary features started, the storm / meteorological events turned conducive to India. 

The October Garbottam chart shows mild rains in Chennai on and around Diwali. The current meteorological conditions favour that. One more observation based on what is noticed in the past months is that the expected rainfall from storm Kyant to Chennai can be more than indicated by Garbottam (as mild). This is because the previous dates of Garbottam realisation dates for October for Chennai did not give good rains. They were either scanty or nil on some dates. As per Varahamihira, if such failure of Garbottam- realisation happened due to non- conducive planetary combinations (in the present case, Mercury- Venus closeness was not there on those days + no planetary rainfall yoga was present), the next rains on the next Garbottam -realisations dates would be more and stormy. 

Currently the Mercury - Venus closeness begins from 27th October. There fore the next rains expected from Kyant until 30th October would be more than being mild as written in the October Garbottam chart.

Another observation is that I expected a flow of winds from East and North east from today (25th) onwards. This was based on the observation on Garbotatm date on April 17th, when for the first time after months, the flow of winds was from West - South west. The rationale is that the wind will blow from the opposite direction on the realisation date. With storm Kyant having turned towards east coast, the flow of winds had started from east- North east. Today is the exact day to happen as per observation. And it happened!

UPDATE on 29th October.

The expected rains from Kyant did not materialise. The probable reason has already been written in the article above. When Sun is transiting Swati, there will be windiness and rainfall will be marred. Currently Sun is transiting Swati October 23rd and November 6th. This transit does dissipate clouds and rainfall. Just before this transit, Mercury was transiting Hasta between 9th and 17th October, That period also delayed / marred rainfall. In the current season, only these two periods are rainfall- marring periods. After we cross 6th November, the regular rainfall yogas would become potent.


UPDATE on 30th October.

Since 27th October favourable cloud formation and wind / storm movements have started to the benefit of Tamilnadu. This is in sync with the phase of closeness between Mercury and Venus which started on 27th October and is going to last till 29th December. At no time during this phase, Mercury is going to cross Venus. That means Venus will be ahead of Mercury which is a good sign for rainfall. 

In the immediate context, Mars is moving into the next sign (Capricorn) on 1st November to make it to be in an alternating sign with Saturn. I wrote in the article that this would signal a meteorological event and this is coming true as per IMD report. IMD expects the formation of a Low Pressure in the SE Bay on 1st November. 

This movement of Mars in an alternating sign is the first step towards a major rainfall period when this happens in rainy season. On 16th November Sun is going to enter Scorpio to be in alternating signs with Saturn and Mars. When these three are in alternating signs, there will be plenty of rainfall.
Let me reproduce the relevant part of my article on these important dates.

But once again within this rainfall period of Nov 16- Dec 10, there comes a dampener by way of Venus moving in Uttrashada star in Nirjala nadi. This would have cloudiness but devoid of rains. We just check whether this materialises. This period is between November 30 and December 10th. This period coming in the rainfall period gravely affects the rainfall prospects. We have to watch out this period.


UPDATE on 13th November 2016.

Elated to receive showers accompanied with thunder in morning twilight hours. Widespread rains were reported in other parts of Chennai. The daily Garbottam indicated the coming of these rains though the timing was a bit different. The difference in timing could be due to error of judgement as the timing is based on the (1) reverse time of the Garbottam sightings and (2) the thithi. On quite many days, the thithi change was there during Garbottam sightings. If Garbottam continued in the next thithi, the date itself  would change at realisation time. May be it would take some time for me to interpret this feature.

But what elated me is the fact that this rains were predictable through daily Garbottam, while the sky was absolutely clear of clouds till a day ago currently. The present rains seem to be from a short term local activity. As per the rationale of Garbotatam, the presence of dark clouds that did not give rains on the observation day would give rains 195 days after that - when our location comes 180- degrees away from that initial location. Today's rains showed that there is indeed some science in this rationale which scientists have not yet grasped.

Another rationale of Garbottam is that if it rained on a day (thithi), there wont be rains on the 195th day after that on the same location. The corresponding Garbottam observation date for today is May 6th. On that date it rained in many parts of Tamilnadu except Chennai. On that date Chennai was cloudy. It had rained to day in Chennai and not in other parts of Tamilnadu. The Garbottam rule stands vindicated by this.

As per daily Garbottam chart, the next date of rainfall for Chennai is on 16th November. I have noted down that on the Garbottam observation date on May 9th, surface winds blew from East - South East direction. This was a change in the direction at that time. This means the expected movement of clouds and winds on 16th November must be from west and northwest - which is odd for the current NEM season. Will wait to see how / whether this materialises.


UPDATE on 21st November.

As I was going through Margazhi 2015 Garbottam observation and prediction, I found that what I wrote then matches with what we are experiencing in this NEM 2016! From 9th to 13th day of that Garbottam (Solar Garbottam) it showed dry days during NEM from October 10th onwards. Let me reproduce the links to those articles written from 7th to 11th January 2016. The titles themselves reveal the pathetic nature of NEM for Chennai.

Day-9 of Garbottam year 2015-16 – weaker than 8th day.

Day – 10 of Garbottam 2015-16 – a case of mis-carriage!

Day – 11 of Garbottam 2015-16 - yet to pick up.

Day – 12 of Garbottam 2015-16 – a failure.

The following is what I wrote on the 9th day of Garbottam (7th Jan 2016). Spoiling features did exist on the Garbottam day. Correspondingly during the NEM period now, mixed trend of Rainfall yoga and Rainfall deficient yogas are present together. 

10^th October 2016 begins with deficit rainfall yogas or anavrishti yogas.

(1) Mars will be in Pooradam, the star that is crucial for water. And Mars, the fiery planet is in the lead with all the other planets towing behind it.

(2) Saturn is in front of Venus.

(3) There is no closeness between Mercury and Venus.

These show a dry spell or a retreat of Monsoon.

However there are some interesting combinations also at this time.

They are

(1) Mercury and Jupiter are conjunct which is a good rainfall yoga.

(2) Mercury has become combust as it comes within 14 degrees from the Sun. Mercury or Venus in combustion must give rainfall.

(3) In a couple of days after 10^th October, Mercury will be directly behind the Sun while Venus continues to be in front of the Sun. Usually this line-up when it happens with Mercury and Venus within 30 degree span would be associated with good rainfall.  At this time in October, the Closeness between the two (Budha – Shukra sameepyam) is not there. So we have to see how this line-up works.

As Mars is in the lead with other planets behind it, there will be a tug of war like struggle between ativrishti and anavrishti rainfall yogas. 

However there is a hitch as Venus will be close to Saturn within 1 degree from 12 Noon tomorrow (8^th January 2016) till 7 AM on 10^thJanuary.

This means Venus, an important planet for rainfall will be defeated in planetary war with Saturn.

(1) Saturn in front of Venus gives famine conditions. (2) A Planetary war on a day of Garbottam mars rainfall for several days in the corresponding fortnight.

Already the fortnight (10^th October to 23^rd October 2016) that is under scrutiny for this 9^th day Garbottam has Saturn in front of Venus.

The corresponding date now in the Garbottam period also had Venus behind Saturn and getting defeated by Saturn for nearly 2 days which means 2 fortnights.

Will there be a hiatus in NE Monsoon due to this from 23^rd October and 15^th November?

My fears have come true. The combination of Ativrishti (abundant Rainfall yoga) and Anavrishti yogas (deficient Rainfall yoga)  are playing with each other with result that Anavrishti yogas are gaining an upper hand. In addition, the garbottam on 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th and 13th day for Chennai showed poor results.

Presently 2 Anavrishti yogas are present along with Ativrishti yoga of Mars, Saturn and Sun in alternating signs (Mars in Capricorn and Saturn and Sun in Scorpio) and closeness of Mercury and Venus (this happens when the gap between them is getting reduced as they move).

Though Mars is in alternating sign with Saturn and Sun, it so happens that Mars is also in front of all the other planets and particularly Venus. This particular feature would mar rainfall. I checked the old rainfall records and found two dates that gave more than 20 cm in a day in Santa Cruz, Mumbai. They were 21-7-1982 and 16-6-1986. On those 2 dates Mars was in front of Saturn and Sun in alternating signs and almost all the other planets. However there was a difference with Jupiter in front of Mars on the former date and Mars in retrogression in the latter date. So that means something - that Mars not in the lead of other planets could give good rainfall as per this yoga.

Presently Mars is in the lead is a cause of concern and any failure of / reduction in the expected rainfall for South TN can be attributed to this feature. Another feature is the transit of Venus in Uttrashada ( Nirjala nadi) between Nov 30 and Dec 10 which is also a dampening factor marring rainfall. If these two features work, the present surge in rainfall in South TN would get a beating. As this is the first year of observation for me, I am also observing the developments and learning to synchronise the contradictory features. How these exceptions like features interact with rainfall yoga is something we have to understand by practical observation.

I happened to come across a news that said NEM 2016 is similar dry NEM 2012. When I checked the 2012 NEM months for planetary yogas, I found them to be severe with (1) no Ativrishti yoga in sight (2) Mars in front of all the planets and (3) absence of closeness of Mercury and Venus. Compared to that except point no 2, the other two features are favourable at present (2016 NEM). Therefore 2016 NEM would be 2/3 times better than 2012 NEM. Or Mars in the forefront would play the spoilsport is something we must wait and see.

Meanwhile a ray of hope was witnessed in the 13th (last day) of Garbottam. It can be read here:

Day – 13 (last day) of Garbottam 2015-16 – rains in December.

It showed some rains in the 2nd week of December. Moreover daily Garbottam chart that I have given in the above article shows some wet days around Christmas and stretches to January. But throughout this period Mars continuing to be in front of Venus and all the other planets in the zodiac is a big issue that is threatening to spoil rainfall. Whether this happens or not is something that would give us a very valuable insight on how powerful this forward march of Mars is going to be!

Another observation is that the currently existing Mercury- Venus closeness is associated with bringing snowfall / coldness wherever it is due, similar as how it is associated with bringing rainfall where there is rainfall season. Snowfall has started in parts of the USA. Unlike last year when there was no Mercury- Venus closeness during Christmas, this year this closeness continues during Christmas. Therefore Christmas would see snowfall in most places where it is due.