Rainfall 2017 – Level 1(Panchanga-based)

The year long observation of astrology -based features for predicting rainfall in 2016, has given me some insights on the reliability of certain features which I will presenting here as 4 levels of prediction.

Level 1 deals with Panchanga features which are 3 in number. (1) The indication of rainfall in the verse of the Year. (2) The kind of Megha running in that year (3) Arudra Pravesha of the Sun.

Level 2 deals with planetary combinations that help or spoil rainfall during different parts of the year.

Level 3 deals with Solar / Margazhi Garbottam which is observed for the duration of Sun’s transit in the star Purvashada in the month of Margazhi. This year this period starts at 11 PM on 28^th December 2016 and gets over at 12-57 AM on the early morning of 11^th January 2017.

Level 4 deals with observation of Garbottam every day, (must have started in the month of Karthigai itself to judge the pre-monsoon showers) till the end of June next year.

In the current article, the Level 1 features are discussed to give a preliminary look at the kind of rainfall we are likely to get in the year 2017.

(1) The Verse of the Year.

There is a tradition of 60 year cycle with each of the years having its own nature of things happening. It is believed that the predictive part of the years have been evolved after observation and repeatability of events every 60 years. The predictions are available in the form of verses in Tamil, authored by Idai-k-kaadanaar. The main focus of these predictions is on rainfall and agriculture.

An interesting part of this cycle is that the same year is not applicable throughout India. For example while the current year is Durmukhi in South India, it is Plavanga in North India. As such there is variation in the prediction of rainfall for north and south India in any given year. This seems to fit with the varying behaviour of SWM and NEM which have a bearing in North India and South India respectively. Though it needs a separate research for all the 60 years of rainfall, I am going with this feature Year prediction as this is the foremost feature in any Panchanga and the kings of yore had relied on this to prepare their resources for the best or worst rainfall season.

The upcoming New Year in April 2017 is known as “Hevilambi” in South India and in Tamilnadu. By the name, Vilamb, it means delay, decline or something that is unprofitable.  There will be less rainfall in Hevilambi year as per the verse which is reproduced below.

It says “there would be less rains; price level would fall; agricultural production would be less; there would be wars /warring tendencies; more deaths would happen; rulers would be unjust; there would be destruction from fire”.

The Year applicable for North India is Keelaka. The Verse for Keelaka is given below.

It says, “There would be abundance of rains; Even the ill-disposed would find gains; Mankind would be happy; There would be very good agricultural production; Country would prosper; There would be all round development”.

If we equate this with SWM season of North India, it is indicated to be bountiful. We will wait and see whether this verse and its prediction prepared by Idai-k-kaadanaar of Tamil lands of yore, is applicable to North India.

The Year verse is only one factor of many other ones that aid in rainfall prediction. However the Durmukhi year verse (applicable for 2016 rainfall season) and the previous one in Manmatha year (for 2015) were found to reflect the real conditions on rainfall front in Tamilnadu.

(2) Megha (cloud) of the Year.

There is a 9-Megha (cloud) concept coming from times of yore. There is an old Siddhar verse on how this is calculated right from the start of Kali Yuga. As per this concept, clouds form in specific nature each year for a duration of 9 years which gets repeated every 9 years. Based on the nature of the Megha, the rainfall activity is also judged. In an article written in January 2016 I showed a similarity between the Vaaruna Megha (The cloud of the Oceans) of 2015 and the image of the earth blanketed by clouds photographed from Space by ISS astronaut Scott Kelly in November 2015.

It may have something to do with positive IOD or some such concept of meteorological science.  Only a blended analysis of this Megha concept and meteorological features can reveal the idea behind each Megha.

Year 2016 had Neela Megha which is of a nature that gives rains where it normally does not rain and fails those places that usually get regular rainfall. And this turned out to be true as Kerala faced a deficit and rainfall deficient regions of Telangana and Bengal received good rainfall.

Year 2017 has Kaala Megha. This name is a popular one and very revealing. Kaala megha means dark clouds. Kaala Megha is a dark-cloud that suddenly bursts to give heavy rainfall. It also means unexpected heavy rains. The nature of this Megha is that it comes with heavy winds. Windiness and speed are the main features. This could mean rainfall from storms.

If we look at the previous years of Kaalamegha, there had been good rains for Tamilnadu in those years. The following table shows the annual rainfall in mm for Tamilnadu and also the rainfall from NEM (last column) along with the Megha of each year.

As per the Megha concept of 2017, there would be sudden and heavy rains accompanied with stormy conditions.

(3) Arudra Pravesha of the Sun.

Readers may be familiar with the word “Arudra Darshan”. The transit of Moon in Arudra Star on the day of Full Moon in the month of Margazhi is celebrated in all Shiva temples as Arudra Darshan. In olden Tamil lands, that day marked the beginning of Paavai Nonbu, one of its goals being praying for bountiful rainfall in the next year. Exactly 6 months after that day, it is Sun’s turn to enter Arudra star which always happens in the month of June (Tamil month of Aani). These two are exactly opposite to each other – separated in space by 180 degrees. The prayer for rainfall that started on the day of Moon entering Arudra in Margazhi would be reflected on the day the Sun enters Arudra star in Aani. The exact moment of Sun’s entry in to Arudra would reveal the nature of rainfall from then onwards. Therefore the analysis of Arudra Pravesha is an important feature in rainfall prediction.

The details of how to check Arudra Pravesha can be read HERE.

In 2017, Sun enters Arudra at 5 AM on the early morning hours of 22^nd June. As per Vedic astrology the day is Wednesday.

Day lord of the week:- Mercury (Wednesday). Rains accompanied with winds / storms.

Thithi at the time of entry:- Trayodashi (13^th thithi). Good for rains.

Star at the time of entry:- Kritthika. Prosperity.

Yoga at the time of entry:-  Dhriti. Good yield of crops.

Karana at the time of entry:- Garija. Prosperity.

The Lagna at the time of entry:-  Taurus. Always rains.

The Kala at the time of entry:-  Night , before dawn. Good rains. Increase in yield of cereals.

Location of Moon at the time of entry:- In Taurus, earthy sign in Rasi and in Aquarius, airy sign in Navamsa. Winds would take away the rains.

Inference:- Except the last factor everything else supports good rainfall. The last factor, that is, Moon’s location shows windy conditions.

This concurs with KalaMegha which is accompanied with winds and storms.

This also concurs with Meghadhipathi concept.

Meghadhipathi is the lord of the day when Sun enters Arudra (1^st point above).

It is Mercury. Mercury is associated with windiness.

When Mercury is the Meghadhipathi, there would be rains with thunders and hailstorms. There would be more rains in the central part of the country with medium yield of crops.

Meghadhipathi Mercury reinforces Kalamegha nature of rains which is associated with sudden outburst of rains from dark clouds accompanied with winds.

Conclusion:-

Of the 3 factors, the last two support good rainfall accompanied with or caused by winds / storms / cyclones.

If we take the Keelaka varusha phalan for North India (SWM), it is also supportive of good rains for North India. Therefore 1^st Level of rainfall prediction indicates good SWM on all the 3 counts for North India which would be mostly accompanied with winds / storms.

The Hevilambi varusha phalan (South India / Tamilnadu) is negative, but the past records of Kalamegha for Tamilnadu and for NEM show a decent show of rainfall. The Arudra Pravesha lagna was taken for Chennai and the overall scenario of the Pravesha is good. The lagna is favourable for Chennai.

How all these blend to give rainfall must be checked through other levels of prediction. The 2^nd level of prediction to be posted tomorrow would further fine-tune the 1^st level prediction for SWM and for NEM (Tamilnadu) given above.

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The entire literature of astrological features of rainfall prediction can be read in the following links.

Part 1:- Pre-Rainy season & GarbOttam.

Part 2:-Solar ingress

Part 3:- Immediate rainfall

Part 4:- Venus - Mercury transit

Part 5:- Planetary combinations

Part 6:-Stars and planets

Part 7:- Rainfall prediction – Part 7 (Miscellany )

The same can be read in Tamil in the following links:

பகுதி 1:- மழை ஜோதிடம் (பகுதி 1) - கர்போட்டம்

பகுதி 2:-  மழை ஜோதிடம் (பகுதி 2) (மேஷப் பிரவேசமும்,ஆருத்ரா பிரவேசமும்)

பகுதி 3:- மழை ஜோதிடம் (பகுதி 3) (உடனடி மழை)

பகுதி 4:- மழை ஜோதிடம் (பகுதி 4) (புதன் - சுக்கிரன் அருகாமை )

பகுதி 5:- மழை ஜோதிடம் (பகுதி 5) (கிரகச் சேர்க்கைகள்)

பகுதி 6:- மழை ஜோதிடம் (பகுதி 6) (நக்ஷத்திரங்களும்,கிரகங்களும்)

பகுதி 7:- மழை ஜோதிடம் (பகுதி 7) உதிரித் தகவல்கள்

All the astrological articles on prediction of Rainfall 2016 can be read here.

Vegetable Horoscopy – predicting crop production

The major purpose of rainfall prediction is to plan beforehand the agricultural production. Though there are various hints on agricultural production through Navanayakas derived from the time of entry of the Sun in Aries (The Jagat lagna), there exists an exclusive method for this purpose in astrology authored by Veda Vyasa of Mahabharata fame. Vyasa’s authorship shows how old this science of astrology is along with its application to agriculture and rainfall! This particular topic is found in Brihad samhita authored by Varahamihira in 40^th chapter.

The basis of this prediction is the entry of the Sun in Scorpio to predict the summer / grIshma crops of the next year and the entry of the Sun in Taurus to predict the autumnal / sharad crops of the next season. {This part of astrology as given by Vyasa is a strong testimony to the knowledge of signs to ancient Indians – something the western scholars like Dieter Koch and Koenraad Elst have been refusing to accept}.

The Summer / GrIshma crop may be equated with Rabi crops, and the autumnal / sharad crop may refer to Kharif crops. Based on this we can say that the sun’s entry into Scorpio indicates the sustainability and success of crops sown in post Monsoon period and reaped in next Summer. The Sun’s entry into Taurus shows the sustainability and success of crops sown in the beginning of monsoon and reaped at the end of Monsoon period before winter sets in.

Bountiful production of summer / Rabi crops / GrIshma crops.

This is judged on the day Sun enters Scorpio (Tamil month of Karthikai) 6 months prior to the start of GrIshma season. The following are the combinations shown by means horoscopy diagram for easy understanding and assimilation.

When Sun enters Scorpio, there must be benefics on the 4^th, 7^th and 10^th houses from Scorpio. If so, the upcoming summer crop season will be good. (Fig 1)

Venus, Mercury, Jupiter and Moon are the benefics. As Venus and Mercury would always be close to the Sun either in front or back of it, we must assume that benefics here refer to Jupiter or Moon.

Fig 1

When Jupiter or Moon occupies Aquarius or Leo at the time of Sun’s entry into Scorpio, the next season of summer crops will be good. (Fig 2)

Fig 2

At the time of Sun’s entry into Scorpio, if it is accompanied with Mercury and Venus on both sides or in the two adjacent signs, the summer crops of the upcoming season will be abundant. (Fig 3)

Fig 3

If at the time of Sun’s entry into Scorpio, Jupiter happens to be in those signs from where it casts its aspects (5^th, 7^th and 9^th aspects) on Scorpio or Libra, then the summer crops will thrive well (Fig 4).  In the diagram below the possible locations of Jupiter with such aspects are given. One can see that it coincides with Jupiter’s northern movement after it crosses its debility sign and reaches exaltation sign. This means when Jupiter is moving from Aquarius to Cancer, the summer crops will thrive in general. Adding up the rule given in Fig 2, Jupiter’s transit from Aquarius to Leo also is good for summer crops.

Fig 4

For very good yield of summer crops 6 months later, Venus and Mercury must be accompanying the Sun before and after it when it enters Scorpio while Moon must be joining Jupiter in Taurus. (Fig 5)

Fig 5

If at that time, Jupiter is transiting the 2^nd house from the Sun, that is, Sagittarius, the Summer crop would be half of what is realised under Fig 5 conditions. This means Jupiter in opposition to Sun is more beneficial than being next to it. This is shown in Fig 6.

Fig 6

One of the ideal combinations for good summer crop production is given in Fig 7 below.

Fig 7

Malefics namely Saturn and Mars might be accompanying the Sun or be in front or back of it when it enters Scorpio. Or they may be transiting the opposite sign, Taurus. In all these cases, the production of summer crops will be less. The crops won’t thrive. But if benefics aspect them at the time of entry, crops would grow here and there. Fig 8 shows such combinations.

Fig 8.

However if the malefics occupy 6^th and 7^th signs from Scorpio at the time of Sun’s entry into Scorpio, summer crops will thrive and price level will come down (Fig 9). Though Varahamihira does not elaborate, it looks plausible that only if benefics aspect them, crop production would be good. The assumption is that Venus and Mercury must be there in Libra or Scorpio to cast their aspect on these malefics.

Fig 9

When the two malefics occupy Capricorn at the time of Sun’s entry into Scorpio, if Jupiter is in Aquarius and Moon in Taurus, there will be abundance of Summer crops, but there will be diseases in the land and fear of invasion. (Fig 10)

Fig 10

Now another scenario not connected with entry into Scorpio is given in Fig 11. When Sun is moving through Sagittarius, Capricorn and Aquarius accompanied with only benefics (Mer, Ve and /Jupiter), the ensuing season of Summer crops will be bountiful (Fig 11)

Fig 11

Failure of Summer / Rabi / GrIshma crops.

At the time of Sun’s entry into Scorpio, if malefics occupy the 7^th house (Taurus) with no aspect from benefics, the summer crops will fail. Fig 12 shows Saturn and Mars in Taurus with Ven / Mercury in the signs before and after the Sun. Though Venus and Mercury (benefics) always accompany the Sun, if they happen to be in the signs other than that of Scorpio at the time of sun’s entry, their aspect would not fall on Taurus. This combination cannot ensure good crop production in the ensuing Summer season.

Fig 12.

If Saturn and Mars or one of them is in the 2^nd house to Scorpio when Sun is entering Scorpio and if benefics are not associated with Saturn and Mars in the 2^nd, the summer crops will fail. (Fig 13)

Fig 13

The basic idea is that at the time of Sun’s entry into Scorpio, presence of malefics in Scorpio or Sagittarius or Taurus would cause crop failure.

Bountiful production of autumnal / Kharif crops / Sharad crops.

This is ascertained from the position of planets when the Sun enters Taurus. The prediction is for the ensuing autumnal crop that is harvested 6 months later. This is a reversal of what we saw for entry into Scorpio. The combinations are given below.

Fig 14

Fig 15

Fig 16

Fig 17

Fig 18

Fig 19

Fig 20

Failure of Autumnal / Kharif / Sharad crops

Fig 21

Fig 22

PART 2.

To test these astrological features, I searched the internet to get the data on crops and got  some data on drought years in India. Since drought is connected with failure of crop production, I checked those years for the above combinations of failure of crops. One of them is given below.

Case study 1

Year 2000 – places affected were Rajasthan, Gujarat, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh – more than 100 million people were affected.

The affected places indicate the failure of SWM. There were three break spells during the SWM season that vastly contributed to low rainfall.  Therefore the Sharad crop sown in summer / rainy months would have yielded less. The entry of Sun in Taurus is checked to assess this.

The above combination shows failure of Sharad crops and also failure of SWM.

Crop failure is indicated:-

·       Mars was in Taurus at 13 degrees and Mercury was at 6 degrees when Sun entered Taurus.

·       Saturn was in 12^th house (Aries) ahead of Jupiter and Venus. Moon was in the 5^th house to Taurus.

·       Though Jupiter conjuncts Saturn in Aries, what is desired for good crop production is aspect by Jupiter. Check Fig 19. The best Sharad crop production happens when Jupiter in the opposite signs of Sun in Taurus.

·       The transit of two malefics Saturn and Mars in Aries and Taurus at the time of Sun’s entry into Taurus indicates failure of crops that had to be sown in the Monsoon season.

The failure of SWM is indicated:-

·       Saturn was in Krittika star at the time of beginning of SWM season in the year 2000 and continued to be in the same star throughout that year. This is Vayu nadi which denies rainfall.

Similar transit of Saturn in Vayu nadi happened in the Monsoon season of current year, 2016.  From 8^th July to 17^th September this year (2016) Saturn was in Vayu nadi in Anusha star. Whenever Saturn transits the signs Aries / Taurus and Scorpio during the SWM or NEM season, failure of respective monsoon can be expected. The stars involved are Bharani, Kritthiaki and Vishaka and Anusham.

·       In the above combination of planets Mars is in the lead of all planets. Soon after the SWM started, Mars entered Mrigasheerisha star which ensured dry weather along with Saturn in Kritthika.

·       Forward march of Mercury and Venus coming far behind it were the other major features for lack of rainfall.

The NEM season of 2000 saw nearly half of the maximum rainfall experienced so far (35.28 cm). The planetary combination at the time of Sun’s entry into Scorpio is shown below.

This is comparable with Fig 12 whereby Saturn in the 7^th house with Mercury and Venus in the front and back sign of Sun would ensure crop failure (Kharif).

But Jupiter had joined Saturn and is moving towards Saturn in retrogression. And by the rule of Fig 4, Jupiter is in Taurus. These two features gave rise to some hope for crops.

Looking at the rainfall features, Venus and Mercury were far apart by 59 degrees which is a big gap. But Venus was in the forefront and was soon to cross Ketu. These features helped in getting most of NEM rains in November 2000 (41.6 % of the total NEM rainfall of that year).

Based on this we can say that success of summer crops of 2001 was just average while the autumnal crops of 2000 was an utter failure.

Case study 2.

Year 2015 – This IMD report says that 2015 was a deficient Monsoon year with SWM being 86% of its Long Period Average. But the NEM was good with 67.3 cm rainfall that saw a record breaking heaviest rainfall of the Century in Chennai. Let us take a look at the planetary combinations as per vegetable horoscopy.

Two malefics associated with Sun, one joining Sun in Taurus and another in opposition to Sun.

Major feature of dryness is contributed by Saturn in Anusham star.

But Jupiter was aspecting Saturn. Though its location in Cancer is not a positive feature to help Sharad crops of 2015, its location in watery sign and aspect over Saturn gives average results for crop production of Kharif season 2015.

On November 17, 2015 Sun entered Scorpio. The combinations are shown below.

This is a good rainfall combination with Saturn, Sun and Mars transiting alternate signs and Jupiter in Jala Nadi by its location in Purva Phalguni star. More than 56.76% of NEM rainfall of 2015 occurred in November followed by floods in Chennai in December.

On crop production, this is comparable with Fig 7 whereby Venus is in the 11^th sign, Jupiter in the 10^th sign. Mercury would soon move to the 2^nd sign. The location of Venus and Jupiter ensures more than average crop production that was sown post-monsoon period and reaped in Summer 2016.

Case study 3

Year 2016 – The SWM was a subdued one. When SWM fails, the sharad crop also fails. Look at the following figure. It is rule book combination, though of a mixed trend.

Jupiter – Moon conjunction in Leo (4^th house from Sun) is good for crops. Venus- Mercury conjunction in the 12^th house (Aries) is also good. But Conjunction of Saturn and Mars in the 7^th house to Sun badly mars crop production. The end result is a mixed trend of some places growing crops successfully (Jup- Moon combination), while some others struggling to raise bountiful sharad crops in 2016.

Trends in 2017.

The following shows the nature of Summer crops of 2017.

This is a combination of Fig 8 and Fig 10.

Moon is in the 7^th house to Sun and Venus in the 2^nd house. Mars in Capricorn is aspected by Jupiter. But Saturn in Scorpio is a spoiler though Moon’s aspect on it reduced the spoiling effect. Basically the 2 malefics are aspected by benefics. Therefore the crop production of Summer 2017 (Rabi) would be a mixed one with some crops and some places doing well and others struggling to sustain.

The following diagram pertains to autumnal (sharad / Kharif) crop of 2017.

Both Venus and Mercury are behind Sun. Of them Venus in 11^th house is a good sign. Jupiter in the opposite side is also a good sign. But Mars in Taurus is not a good sign and Moon in the 8^th is a wasted opportunity. However Mars receives the 9^th aspect of Jupiter. This is once again indicative of a mixed trend for autumnal / Kharif crops 2017 and not overall bountiful production. 

This means that the SWM 2017 would not be uniform or above average but lopsided in its occurrence.

The overall crop production for 2017 can be said to average Summer crops and below average autumnal crops.

Conclusion:

This is an attempt to predict crop production and integrate it with rainfall prediction. This requires to be fine-tuned with crop data of the past years. Looking at the upcoming year, by the middle of January 2017, it is possible to get an overall picture of rainfall nature of 2017 as Solar Garbottam would have been over by then. A re-look at crop production of 2017 would be done then by integrating the rainfall prediction gained through Solar Garbottam.

PS:

Starting from tomorrow, Rainfall Prediction for year 2017 will be posted on a daily basis till Solar Garbottam gets over. Interested readers may follow the posts and do the Garbottam observation in their respective locations.