Part 1:- Pre-Rainy season & GarbOttam.
Monday, December 26, 2016
Rainfall 2017 – Level 1(Panchanga-based)
The year long observation of astrology -based features for predicting rainfall in 2016, has given me some insights on the reliability of certain features which I will presenting here as 4 levels of prediction.
Level 1 deals with Panchanga features which are 3 in number. (1) The indication of rainfall in the verse of the Year. (2) The kind of Megha running in that year (3) Arudra Pravesha of the Sun.
Level 2 deals with planetary combinations that help or spoil rainfall during different parts of the year.
Level 3 deals with Solar / Margazhi Garbottam which is observed for the duration of Sun’s transit in the star Purvashada in the month of Margazhi. This year this period starts at 11 PM on 28th December 2016 and gets over at 12-57 AM on the early morning of 11th January 2017.
Level 4 deals with observation of Garbottam every day, (must have started in the month of Karthigai itself to judge the pre-monsoon showers) till the end of June next year.
In the current article, the Level 1 features are discussed to give a preliminary look at the kind of rainfall we are likely to get in the year 2017.
(1) The Verse of the Year.
There is a tradition of 60 year cycle with each of the years having its own nature of things happening. It is believed that the predictive part of the years have been evolved after observation and repeatability of events every 60 years. The predictions are available in the form of verses in Tamil, authored by Idai-k-kaadanaar. The main focus of these predictions is on rainfall and agriculture.
An interesting part of this cycle is that the same year is not applicable throughout India. For example while the current year is Durmukhi in South India, it is Plavanga in North India. As such there is variation in the prediction of rainfall for north and south India in any given year. This seems to fit with the varying behaviour of SWM and NEM which have a bearing in North India and South India respectively. Though it needs a separate research for all the 60 years of rainfall, I am going with this feature Year prediction as this is the foremost feature in any Panchanga and the kings of yore had relied on this to prepare their resources for the best or worst rainfall season.
The upcoming New Year in April 2017 is known as “Hevilambi” in South India and in Tamilnadu. By the name, Vilamb, it means delay, decline or something that is unprofitable. There will be less rainfall in Hevilambi year as per the verse which is reproduced below.
It says “there would be less rains; price level would fall; agricultural production would be less; there would be wars /warring tendencies; more deaths would happen; rulers would be unjust; there would be destruction from fire”.
The Year applicable for North India is Keelaka. The Verse for Keelaka is given below.
It says, “There would be abundance of rains; Even the ill-disposed would find gains; Mankind would be happy; There would be very good agricultural production; Country would prosper; There would be all round development”.
If we equate this with SWM season of North India, it is indicated to be bountiful. We will wait and see whether this verse and its prediction prepared by Idai-k-kaadanaar of Tamil lands of yore, is applicable to North India.
The Year verse is only one factor of many other ones that aid in rainfall prediction. However the Durmukhi year verse (applicable for 2016 rainfall season) and the previous one in Manmatha year (for 2015) were found to reflect the real conditions on rainfall front in Tamilnadu.
(2) Megha (cloud) of the Year.
There is a 9-Megha (cloud) concept coming from times of yore. There is an old Siddhar verse on how this is calculated right from the start of Kali Yuga. As per this concept, clouds form in specific nature each year for a duration of 9 years which gets repeated every 9 years. Based on the nature of the Megha, the rainfall activity is also judged. In an article written in January 2016 I showed a similarity between the Vaaruna Megha (The cloud of the Oceans) of 2015 and the image of the earth blanketed by clouds photographed from Space by ISS astronaut Scott Kelly in November 2015.
It may have something to do with positive IOD or some such concept of meteorological science. Only a blended analysis of this Megha concept and meteorological features can reveal the idea behind each Megha.
Year 2016 had Neela Megha which is of a nature that gives rains where it normally does not rain and fails those places that usually get regular rainfall. And this turned out to be true as Kerala faced a deficit and rainfall deficient regions of Telangana and Bengal received good rainfall.
Year 2017 has Kaala Megha. This name is a popular one and very revealing. Kaala megha means dark clouds. Kaala Megha is a dark-cloud that suddenly bursts to give heavy rainfall. It also means unexpected heavy rains. The nature of this Megha is that it comes with heavy winds. Windiness and speed are the main features. This could mean rainfall from storms.
If we look at the previous years of Kaalamegha, there had been good rains for Tamilnadu in those years. The following table shows the annual rainfall in mm for Tamilnadu and also the rainfall from NEM (last column) along with the Megha of each year.
As per the Megha concept of 2017, there would be sudden and heavy rains accompanied with stormy conditions.
(3) Arudra Pravesha of the Sun.
Readers may be familiar with the word “Arudra Darshan”. The transit of Moon in Arudra Star on the day of Full Moon in the month of Margazhi is celebrated in all Shiva temples as Arudra Darshan. In olden Tamil lands, that day marked the beginning of Paavai Nonbu, one of its goals being praying for bountiful rainfall in the next year. Exactly 6 months after that day, it is Sun’s turn to enter Arudra star which always happens in the month of June (Tamil month of Aani). These two are exactly opposite to each other – separated in space by 180 degrees. The prayer for rainfall that started on the day of Moon entering Arudra in Margazhi would be reflected on the day the Sun enters Arudra star in Aani. The exact moment of Sun’s entry in to Arudra would reveal the nature of rainfall from then onwards. Therefore the analysis of Arudra Pravesha is an important feature in rainfall prediction.
The details of how to check Arudra Pravesha can be read HERE.
In 2017, Sun enters Arudra at 5 AM on the early morning hours of 22nd June. As per Vedic astrology the day is Wednesday.
Day lord of the week:- Mercury (Wednesday). Rains accompanied with winds / storms.
Thithi at the time of entry:- Trayodashi (13th thithi). Good for rains.
Star at the time of entry:- Kritthika. Prosperity.
Yoga at the time of entry:- Dhriti. Good yield of crops.
Karana at the time of entry:- Garija. Prosperity.
The Lagna at the time of entry:- Taurus. Always rains.
The Kala at the time of entry:- Night , before dawn. Good rains. Increase in yield of cereals.
Location of Moon at the time of entry:- In Taurus, earthy sign in Rasi and in Aquarius, airy sign in Navamsa. Winds would take away the rains.
Inference:- Except the last factor everything else supports good rainfall. The last factor, that is, Moon’s location shows windy conditions.
This concurs with KalaMegha which is accompanied with winds and storms.
This also concurs with Meghadhipathi concept.
Meghadhipathi is the lord of the day when Sun enters Arudra (1st point above).
It is Mercury. Mercury is associated with windiness.
When Mercury is the Meghadhipathi, there would be rains with thunders and hailstorms. There would be more rains in the central part of the country with medium yield of crops.
Meghadhipathi Mercury reinforces Kalamegha nature of rains which is associated with sudden outburst of rains from dark clouds accompanied with winds.
Of the 3 factors, the last two support good rainfall accompanied with or caused by winds / storms / cyclones.
If we take the Keelaka varusha phalan for North India (SWM), it is also supportive of good rains for North India. Therefore 1st Level of rainfall prediction indicates good SWM on all the 3 counts for North India which would be mostly accompanied with winds / storms.
The Hevilambi varusha phalan (South India / Tamilnadu) is negative, but the past records of Kalamegha for Tamilnadu and for NEM show a decent show of rainfall. The Arudra Pravesha lagna was taken for Chennai and the overall scenario of the Pravesha is good. The lagna is favourable for Chennai.
How all these blend to give rainfall must be checked through other levels of prediction. The 2nd level of prediction to be posted tomorrow would further fine-tune the 1st level prediction for SWM and for NEM (Tamilnadu) given above.
The entire literature of astrological features of rainfall prediction can be read in the following links.
Part 1:- Pre-Rainy season & GarbOttam.
Part 2:-Solar ingress
Part 3:- Immediate rainfall
Part 4:- Venus - Mercury transit
Part 5:- Planetary combinations
Part 6:-Stars and planets
The same can be read in Tamil in the following links:
பகுதி 1:- மழை ஜோதிடம் (பகுதி 1) - கர்போட்டம்
பகுதி 3:- மழை ஜோதிடம் (பகுதி 3) (உடனடி மழை)
பகுதி 7:- மழை ஜோதிடம் (பகுதி 7) உதிரித் தகவல்கள்
All the astrological articles on prediction of Rainfall 2016 can be read here.