Friday, May 15, 2009

DMK sweeps - CNN IBN survey!

The CNN IBN is currently airing its survey result that DMK alliance is all set to sweep Tamilnadu!


Though this is against the age old wisdom of poll-arithmetic, the reasons are not hard to find if this prediction comes true.


That reason is not what the IBN analysts say.
They say that the Srilankan issue has favored the DMK - congress alliance.
Impossible.
There is sympathy for the Lankan Tamils,
but everyone knows that no one in India can solve the Lankan issue.


The probable reasons lie elsewhere.
One reason could be the division of anti DMK votes by Vijayakanth.
This must be confirmed from the poll results.


If the Vijayakanth factor is not severe,
then the only probable reason could be the cash-for votes by the DMK,
which the DMK had rehearsed well in Thirumangalam by-elections.


Tamil nadu has recorded the highest polling in the last 25 years.
When such high polling happens, then it is due to anti incumbency factor.
If the DMK sweeps the polls, it revolts against this conventional wisdom.
It means something else has happened
to make the people to go to the polling booth -
to vote for the government in power!



The highest polling of 80 % in Karur constituency which was in the news for cash distribution by the DMK before the elections, compounds the suspicion that money indeed has been promised.
It need not have been distributed on the poll-eve - but promised.



Otherwise how else we can explain the crowding of the very poor people around the DMK agents on the polling day (which I saw in the polling booth near my house), leaving the ADMK and MDMK agents who were also sitting in the same area.
Any promise given of 'gifts', if they vote for the DMK?


This section forms the gullible one third of the voters which I already mentioned in the post
http://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.com/2009/04/election-pulse-of-chennai.html

This section was lured by freebies last time.

What is that carrot promised to them this time,
will be known in a few days,
if the DMK sweeps the polls.



Leaders and parties are bought post-poll, while the voters are bought before the poll.
All this does not augur well for a democracy.



Finally from astrological point of view,
I have the horoscope of Ms Jayalalithaa (24-02-1948. 2-34 PM, Mysore),
which does not see her get the throne at present in Tamilnadu.
If Congress does well in the hustings with DMK not doing well in TN,
we foresaw a situation of the Congress aligning with Jayalalithaa.
That means Jayalalithaa replacing the DMK governement here.


But Jayalaithaa's dasa- antar dasa indications do not give her Power at present.
So no change of guard in Tamilnadu at present.
It means either the UPA will do exceedingly well that Jayalalithaa will have no role in government formation
or the UPA will do very badly that Jayalalithaa will have a role in government formation in the centre sans UPA and not in the State.
This happens with the UPA in two extreme conditions of performance.


Ms Jayalalithaa's current dasa period is Rahu-Sun-Rahu-Rahu-Jupiter-Venus.
Sun is a do-gooder for her.
Jupiter also has helped her in the past


But Rahu is not good, though she came to power in Rahu dasa.
Rahu is in the star of Venus (Bharani).
Though Venus is exalted in the 10th in her horoscope,
it is hemmed in between malefics.
In the bhava chart, 7th lord Jupiter is in 6th, showing her partners turning hostile.
These points are enough to give her some headache or the other at a given time.


The currently running sun antar dasa and Jupiter sukshma dasa will give her some leverage.
But the predominance of Rahu and further sub-division of the day of the results having Venus, will not give the results as she expects.
Venus as lord of 12th in papa karthari is likely to upset her calculations.


However I do see her resurgence in 2012 in Guru dasa.
Guru (Jupiter), the 10th lord, has shad bala strength
and the 10th bhava is also strong,
making her powerful in political career throughout the Guru dasa.


Generally for India, things will further deteriorate in the next couple of years.
With the entry of the saturn in Libra,
the 10th house in the mundane chart of India (in capricorn) ,
a dharmic disposition will take place in India.


That is, things must deteriorate further to reach the limits
and a revival will take palce as a result of that.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hey, Are you Srilankan Gay? Then how come you are making such foolish comment like this? You know one thing, if you close your eyes, then dont think its Dark in this world.

DMK will win 100% not because of money but bcz of 1 rupee rice. So do not bluf again.

jayasree said...

Hello,

Even if we agree that it is because of 1 rupee rice, why didn't people vote for Congress, its partner? How can you rationalize that DMK wins sweepingly while its bosom partner loses miserably in our state?

There should be some rhyme and reason in explaining this 'phenomenon'.
If people are happy with the DMK government, they would have voted for its alliance.
They didn't.

If people had wanted congress alliance at the center or Manmohan as PM, then they must voted for the alliance as such in Tamilnadu.
Why they singled out the Congress?

If the reason for isolating the congress was due to dissatisfaction over Lankan issue, then it must apply to DMK too. How can the people give victory to DMK and defeat to Congress and expect the DMK to do some good work to Lankan cause through its presence in Lok sabha?
Did they know beforehand that Congress will come back to power in the centre, in spite of them 'teaching a lesson' to it in Tamilnadu?


If you say the reason for congress' poor show in the state is due to local reasons, why those local reasons didn't apply to DMK? After all the DMK is the main player in local issue. Why the near total routing of the Congress to the exclusion of the DMK?

What is the local factor that helped the DMK wherever it stood, but did not help the Congress wherever the congress stood?


The only explanation available is the DMK gave something more than the 1 rupee rice which none others gave.

That something is 'something'!

Whatever has been gained in the last 5 years have been now spent on the constituencies where DMK put up its candidate. This is done to renew the 'license to loot'.


Now another set of ministers are going to start the next round in the center.

Manmohan singh is already trained on how to turn a blind eye to all this.

He closes the eyes and persons like you close your eyes.
Manmohan knows how it pays if he closes his eyes!
You refuse to see, by closing your eyes.
That’s all!