Saturday, October 1, 2016

Rainfall check -7 (North East Monsoon)

New Update added on 21st November  at the end of the article. 


Previous articles:-

Rainfall check - part 1  (Pre-Monsoon showers)
Rainfall check - part 2  (Cyclone Roanu in Bay of Bengal)
Rainfall check - part 3  (Late arrival of SW Monsoon)
Rainfall check - part 4  (For July 2016)
Rainfall check - part 5 (For August 2016)
Rainfall check - Part 6 (For September 2016)

In this article, I am going to combine the Garbottam forecasts for the remaining 3 months (October, November and December) as that would give an idea of how the North East Monsoon is going to behave for Chennai and South India. Before doing that let me recap the rainfall scenario so far from astrological point of view.

Macro level predictions.

The macro level predictions are based on Year prediction, Megha prediction, Meghadhipathi prediction (Navanayaka) and Arudra Pravesha prediction.

Durmukhi Varusha phalan.

The Year prediction for Durmukhi varusham has been given as a verse in Tamil by Idai-k-kaadanaar which is as follows:



It says that there would be less rains in the beginning and more rains later. The reality check was that the monsoon was indeed late and picked up late.

The verse further says that there would be no deficit for Gurjara desha. In reality, Gujarat which was reeling under deficit for the past 2 years realised good rainfall after a delayed onset.

This does not mean that cotton production would be high this year, so says the verse. The verse says that items of white colour would be scarce this year. This is also coming true now.

The specific reference to Gujarat and indication of rainfall at later part might refer to the late rainfall realised by Gujarat and its neighbouring States that were reeling under drought since last 2 years. 

After seeing the SWM behaviour in these regions, I think this reference need not be about the NEM season. However the specific reference to increase in agricultural produce ( vELaNmai yErumE) in the first line gives an overall outline that food production would not suffer a deficit in general. This means the final tally of rainfall realisation would be sufficient for the whole country.

Megha- effect:

The Megha of this year (Durmukhi) is Neela Megha which will give mixed results. It would rain where there were no rains before but fail to rain in those places where it usually rains. This also came true. The Western Ghats in Kerala and Western Karnataka which used to be lashed generously by SWM received less rainfall. On the other hand the generally deficit regions to their east such as Telangna and North western states received very good rainfall.

This trend of Neela Megha also implies that the NEM season would also be such that it would rain where it normally does not rain, but fail in those regions where there used to be heavy rains. But this must be corroborated by other features.

In comparison, the next year’s KaaLa Megha (2017) would fare better as it is supposed to give copious rains accompanied with storms / cyclones. Drona Megha of 2018 would be more bountiful and marked with floods.

Meghadhipathi effect:

Mars is this year’s Meghadhipathi. Rainfall realisation by Mars would always be accompanied with storms or thunders. The rainfall would be uneven giving rise to drought conditions in some places. So far this has come true.

Arudra Pravesham of Sun.

This refers to Sun’s entry into the star Arudra. It happened on 21st June this year at 11 PM. The ruling planet was Mars which causes rains accompanied with storms at some places and dryness at some other places.

One can see all the above features are more or less on similar lines. The SWM season also exhibited the same general trend.


Planetary features of the SWM season:

The foremost feature is the Budha- Shukra Sameephya (closeness between Mercury and Venus). This closeness occurs thrice this year, 2 times occurring in SWM season and one time at NEM season.
They are,
(1) 10th May to 7th June
(2) 7th July to 12th September
(3) 27th October to 29th December.

The first occasion was marked with cyclone Roanu (Read here).

Then there was a lull due to opposition of Malefics such as Saturn and Mars Scorpio.



Rainfall picked up after this in western region with these planets transiting Gemini, the sign of west.
The 2nd occasion started off well but with 2 dampeners that ultimately decided the behaviour of the SW Monsoon.

They are (1) Venus came out of combustion in 2nd Mandala, on the day closeness began (7th July). When re-emergence of Venus from combustion happens in the 2nd Mandala, the rains will be below average. (Read my article here)

(2) On the next day, that is on 8th July Saturn entered Anusha which is Vayu nadi. (Read the sapta nadi chakra here.) This mars rainfall. This transit of Saturn ended only on 17th September. It means throughout the closeness period of Mercury and Venus, Saturn had played a spoilsport.

The 3rd occasion of closeness starts on 27th October and ends on 29th December. That could prove to be the NE monsoon period. Before going into the details of this period let me list down the planetary indicators that occurred on days of rainfall in the SW season this year (2016).


1
April 4, 2016
End of combustion of Mercury
First showers of the season lashed Swat valley of POK. Floods followed.

2
April 24, 2016
Venus enters Aries to join Sun and Mercury
First showers started in Assam. Floods followed.

3
April 30, 2016
Mercury starts retrogression
Thunder showers in North eastern States.
4
May 8, 2016
Venus in deep conjunction with Sun
Formation of low pressure trough in South Andaman sea.

5
May 10, 2016
Closeness of Mercury and Venus begins
Widespread rains in East and South India.

6
May 13- 14th , 2016
Deep conjunction of Mercury and Venus with Venus coming in front of Mercury
Formation of cyclone Roanu in the Bay.
7
May 18, 2016
Moon in opposition to Venus
Heavy rains in South Tamilnadu and Chennai.

8
May 20, 2016
Venus coming opposite to Malefics (Saturn and Mars in Scorpio)
Reduction in rainfall. Raomu moves along the coast.

9
May 21, 2016
Venus enters next sign and in conjunction with Sun
Cyclone Roanu makes landfall in Bangladesh.

10
May 22 to 24, 2016
Venus in opposition to Mars
Heat wave conditions.
11
May 21 to June 7, 2016
Venus in opposition to malefics.
Reduction in rainfall
12
June 7, 2016
Venus crossed Sun, Mercury entered the next sign to join Sun and Venus.
Outbreak of SW Monsoon.
13
June 18, 2016
Jupiter to cross Rahu within 1 degree.
Rainfall picks up.
14
June 19, 2016
Jupiter nearing Rahu within 1 degree in Purva Phalguni.
SWM enters Mumbai
15
June 25, 2016
Mercury begins combustion. Deep conjunction of Jupiter with Rahu.
Heavy rains begin in Vindhya region / Central India .

 

16
July 7, 2016
Mercury – Venus closeness begins.

Low Pressure in NW Bay. Heavy rains begin in Madhya Pradesh and Uttrakhand.
17.
July 7, 2016
Venus re-emerges from combustion in Punarpoosam.
Must reduce rainfall
18.
July 8, 2016
Saturn enters Anusham
Must reduce rainfall till September 17.
19.
July 16, 17
Mercury crosses Venus
Rainfall in eastern India. Heavy rains in Assam, Bihar.
20.
July 31, August 1, 2016
Venus enters next sign to join Mercury, Rahu, Jupiter.
Rains in North and NW India
21
August 9, 2016
Mercury crosses Rahu.
First Monsoon Depression in NW Bay near Oddhisha.
22.
August 16, 2016 to
September 9, 2016
All planets  behind Sun. Supposed to give flood like situation.
Fresh Low Pressure in Bay intensifies and gives rains across central India, East India  and Andhra.
23.
August 20, 2016
Mercury enters Virgo
Rains in Vijayawada, Andhra, North Tamilnadu
24.
August 25, 2016
Venus enters Virgo
Rains in Andhra

25.
August 30, 31, 2017
Mercury begins retrogression.
Rains in Chennai
26.
September 8, 2016
Mercury enters previous sign in retrogression.
Lack of Rainfall.
27.
September 12, 2016
End of closeness between Mercury and Venus.
Rainfall ends in North India.
28.
September 21, 2016
Mercury ends retrogression and turns forward.
Heavy rains in Andhra, Telangana
29.
September 28, 2016
Mercury and Venus reach the maximum gap between themselves of 48 degrees
Withdrawal of SW Monsoon begins in North west India.

North East Monsoon indicators.

The current period between SWM and NEM is marked with occasional thunder showers in Chennai and in parts of east peninsular India. This can be attributed to the forward motion of Mercury in Leo which signifies eastern direction. Even though I am tempted to locate the arrival of NEM on 27th October, as Mercury- Venus closeness begins on that date, the Daily Garbottam chart for October shows change of direction of winds for the first time on 25th October itself. Until April 16th, the wind direction was North- North East. This will become opposite during the rainfall realisation period which is running now. So correspondingly, till October 24th, the wind direction would be from South- Southwest. From October 25th onwards, the direction changes to North- North east. This must be cross-checked in reality.

The Garbottam for Chennai (my place of observation) also shows that there will be rains in the second half of Navarathri and on the previous night of Diwali.

The 8th day of Solar Garbottam observed on 6th January showed that there would be rains in the last part of Navarathri. That is re-affirmed in daily Garbottam given in the chart below. In fact the present fortnight between 26th September and 10th October corresponds to the 8th day of Solar Garbottam. The movement of dark clouds of aquatic shapes across the face of the sun on that day on 6th January is bearing results by way of rainfall now in Chennai.

Swan shaped (inverted) dark cloud across the sun around 1-30 PM on 6th January.

In general October would be wet. The rainfall realisation dates can be known from the chart below.




























































































It is noticed that the rainfall would be mild to moderate and not torrential in October.

A major depressing feature in this period is that Mercury will be in Hasta star from 9th October to 17th October which would reduce the incidence and intensity of rainfall.  This indicates dryness after Navarathri.  The sign being Virgo, the region coming under this spell is South India and South east Tamilnadu.

Another dampener is Sun which will affect rainfall between October 23rd and November 6th as it will be transiting Swati in Vayu nadi in Libra. This would result in windiness and less rainfall. As Libra signifies West, South west and west Tamilnadu gets this effect. However by16th November a major turnaround happens. On 16th November Sun enters Scorpio to join with Saturn. From then onwards until 10th December, sun, Saturn and Mars would be in alternating signs. This is a strong rainfall yoga which existed during Chennai floods last year (November -December 2015). On the days Moon moves through 5th, 7th and 9th signs from t these planets, there would be heavy rains.

Mercury – Venus closeness continues in this period and there is no spoilsport around. This ensures good rainfall. The Garbottam chart for Chennai and suburbs do not show scope for rainfall in this period. The stars transited by Moon point out to east and South east India / Tamilnadu.

The next probable dates are shown below.

On 23rd, 24th and 25th November, Moon would be in the 9th sign from Mars and not from Sun and Saturn. But Moon joins Jupiter which is a rainfall yoga. Venus is ahead of Mercury in their closeness. So these features could give rainfall on these dates, though it would be less intense than the dates given in the previous chart.

Once again Chennai looks dry in the November Garbottam chart except on 25th. Moon in Virgo at that time indicates Southern parts of Tamilnadu that cover river Kaveri and other rivers of the south.
The next possible date is December 12th, but Mars had by then moved out of the alternating sign. 

Anyway in the period between 16th November and 10th December, this rainfall yoga exists favouring Southern parts of Tamilnadu or regions south of Chennai.

November rainfall:-

The Garbottam chart of November shows that there is scope for a Depression around November 3rd. Though it does not give good rains to Chennai, it is possible other coastal regions could get rainfall.




























































































In all probability November would be dry in Chennai. The trend continues in December also. There would be moderate rains in Chennai in the 2nd week and middle of December. This tallies with Solar Garbottam (Read here)




























































































Rainfall indicated by planetary movement is given in the chart below.


1.
Oct 3, 2016
Mercury re-enters Virgo.
Moderate rainfall in South TN.
2
Oct 7, 2016
Mercury begins combustion.
Spurt in rainfall in South TN
3.
Oct 9, 2016 to 17th
Mercury in Hasta.
Rainfall affected.
4.
Oct 10, 2016
Jupiter ends combustion.
Spurt in rainfall in South TN including Kaveri basin.
5.
Oct 12-13, 2016
Venus enters next sign – Scorpio
Spurt in rainfall in West Tamilnadu.
6.
Oct 25 – 27, 2016
Mercury in deep conjunction with Sun
Cyclonic or stormy rains in South and South west Tamilnadu.
Or some meteorological event.
7.
Oct 27, 2016
Mercury- Venus closeness begins.
Rainfall period (NEM) begins.
8.
Oct 29, 2016
Venus enters deep conjunction with Saturn in the star Jyeshta.
Rainfall in West Tamilnadu as Jyeshta signifies west. The sign Scorpio signifies North; therefore north TN and regions north to it also come under rains.
9.
Nov 1, 2016
Mars enters alternating sign with Saturn.
Some meteorological event can be expected.
10.
Nov 7, 2016
Venus enters next sign
Rainfall in eastern section of TN / east coast of Peninsular India.
11.
Nov 9, 2016
Mercury enters next sign
Some Rainfall activity in North TN.
12.
Nov 16, 2016 to Dec 10, 2016
Sun enters Scorpio to join Saturn and comes in alternating sign to Mars
Good rainfall  in South and South west TN.
13.
Nov 19, 2016
Mercury comes out of combustion.
Spurt in rainfall in South Western TN / interiors.
14.
Nov 28, 2016
Mercury enters next sign (Sagittarius) to join Venus
Spurt in rainfall in eastern section.
15.
Nov 28, 2016 to Dec 11, 2016
Venus enters Uttrashada
Cloudiness and less rains.
16.

Dec 2, 2016
Venus enters next sign and comes behind Mars
Dry weather South.
17.
Dec 8, 9 - 2016
Moon in watery sign – 5th from Saturn-Sun
Rainfall likely in northern TN.

The important period in this NEM season is between November 16th and December 10th. This period has 2 major Rainfall combinations.
(1) Mercury – Venus closeness.
(2) Sun, Saturn and Mars in alternating signs.

The 2nd combination points to south and south west Tamilnadu. Chennai does not come under this spell. The Daily Garbottam charts also do not show continuous or torrential rains to Chennai during this NEM season. Therefore a repeat of Chennai floods of 2015 can not be expected this year. Moreover the rule is that if it rains well during Sun’s movement in particular stars in a year, the rains will be subdued in the next year when Sun moves in the same star. As per this rule, heavy rains from 2nd half of Nov to 1st half of Dec is ruled out.

December Garbottam shows that rains pick up around Christmas in Chennai. Last year (2015) it rained in South TN around Christmas and not in Chennai. As per the Sun’s transit rule (Karti rule) written above, this reversal is possible this year.

While further updates would be given here upon cross checking reality picture, I am thrilled to say that the pre-monsoon predictions for next year (2017) had started last week! The cloudy conditions with passing drizzles experienced in the last week of September correspond to the first week of April 2017 which is likely to see pre-monsoon showers in Chennai!


UPDATE on 6th October 2016.

An important observation was that Mercury's re-entry into the next sign on October 3rd did not bring out rainfall. The learning is that Mercury or Venus on their entry into previous sign in retrogression and subsequent return to the next sign do not bring out rainfall. It was not so when they move to the next sign in normal course. 

The next feature noticed was that there is renewed rainfall activity in Gujarat even though SWM had started withdrawing. This is as per Durmukhi varusha phalan that says that Gujarat would receive rainfall. The prediction of rainfall in late part seems to refer to Gujarat as it receives rainfall in the later part of SWM even after it had started withdrawing.

The 3rd observation as on today is that it rained in central TN and not South TN on 5th October as written in October Garbottam chart. The specific reference to South TN was written on the rationale that it rained in South TN in the corresponding date on March 28th. If it rains on a day, there wont be rains on the 195th day in that place. Therefore the places that received rainfall on 5th Oct would not have received rains on March 28th. The places that received rainfall on 5th Oct are in central TN.


From IMD Source





UPDATE on 13th October:-


Interestingly,  the astrological predictions of rainfall based on planetary motion are happening on dot till today. Point 4 in the column on rainfall prospects from Oct to Dec based on planetary movement says that there will be rainfall in the Kaveri basin and this is triggered by Jupiter coming out of combustion. It started raining in the Kaveri delta region and also in the catchment areas of Kaveri in Karnataka right from that time. The garbottam for Chennai also came true as far as my place of observation is concerned with feeble / traces of rainfall on most of the days mentioned. Similarly the prediction of rains in West Tamilnadu is also happening.

UPDATE on 25th October:-

Mercury getting closer to the Sun in deep conjunction today, the 25th October, I expected a meteorological event to develop and wrote so in the table in the above article. A cyclonic storm which was moving towards Myanmar had taken a U turn and set on a course to Indian east coast from today onwards. The IMD report  released now is given below.





Named as Kyant, this is expected to cross the shore just North of Tamilnadu by 29th October. One can check this in the article above where I have noted that on 29th when Venus enters deep conjunction with Saturn, there will be rains in north of Tamilnadu. 

A great insight from the current developments is that the rules of rainfall astrology discussed in this series based on ancient wisdom of Vedic sages pertain to Indian sub continent only. This is understood in the current scenario wherein the storm was not recognised by the astrological features when it was going towards Myanmar. But the moment the conducive planetary features started, the storm / meteorological events turned conducive to India. 

The October Garbottam chart shows mild rains in Chennai on and around Diwali. The current meteorological conditions favour that. One more observation based on what is noticed in the past months is that the expected rainfall from storm Kyant to Chennai can be more than indicated by Garbottam (as mild). This is because the previous dates of Garbottam realisation dates for October for Chennai did not give good rains. They were either scanty or nil on some dates. As per Varahamihira, if such failure of Garbottam- realisation happened due to non- conducive planetary combinations (in the present case, Mercury- Venus closeness was not there on those days + no planetary rainfall yoga was present), the next rains on the next Garbottam -realisations dates would be more and stormy. 

Currently the Mercury - Venus closeness begins from 27th October. There fore the next rains expected from Kyant until 30th October would be more than being mild as written in the October Garbottam chart.

Another observation is that I expected a flow of winds from East and North east from today (25th) onwards. This was based on the observation on Garbotatm date on April 17th, when for the first time after months, the flow of winds was from West - South west. The rationale is that the wind will blow from the opposite direction on the realisation date. With storm Kyant having turned towards east coast, the flow of winds had started from east- North east. Today is the exact day to happen as per observation. And it happened!


UPDATE on 29th October.

The expected rains from Kyant did not materialise. The probable reason has already been written in the article above. When Sun is transiting Swati, there will be windiness and rainfall will be marred. Currently Sun is transiting Swati October 23rd and November 6th. This transit does dissipate clouds and rainfall. Just before this transit, Mercury was transiting Hasta between 9th and 17th October, That period also delayed / marred rainfall. In the current season, only these two periods are rainfall- marring periods. After we cross 6th November, the regular rainfall yogas would become potent.


UPDATE on 30th October.

Since 27th October favourable cloud formation and wind / storm movements have started to the benefit of Tamilnadu. This is in sync with the phase of closeness between Mercury and Venus which started on 27th October and is going to last till 29th December. At no time during this phase, Mercury is going to cross Venus. That means Venus will be ahead of Mercury which is a good sign for rainfall. 

In the immediate context, Mars is moving into the next sign (Capricorn) on 1st November to make it to be in an alternating sign with Saturn. I wrote in the article that this would signal a meteorological event and this is coming true as per IMD report. IMD expects the formation of a Low Pressure in the SE Bay on 1st November. 
















This movement of Mars in an alternating sign is the first step towards a major rainfall period when this happens in rainy season. On 16th November Sun is going to enter Scorpio to be in alternating signs with Saturn and Mars. When these three are in alternating signs, there will be plenty of rainfall.
Let me reproduce the relevant part of my article on these important dates.



But once again within this rainfall period of Nov 16- Dec 10, there comes a dampener by way of Venus moving in Uttrashada star in Nirjala nadi. This would have cloudiness but devoid of rains. We just check whether this materialises. This period is between November 30 and December 10th. This period coming in the rainfall period gravely affects the rainfall prospects. We have to watch out this period.


UPDATE on 13th November 2016.

Elated to receive showers accompanied with thunder in morning twilight hours. Widespread rains were reported in other parts of Chennai. The daily Garbottam indicated the coming of these rains though the timing was a bit different. The difference in timing could be due to error of judgement as the timing is based on the (1) reverse time of the Garbottam sightings and (2) the thithi. On quite many days, the thithi change was there during Garbottam sightings. If Garbottam continued in the next thithi, the date itself  would change at realisation time. May be it would take some time for me to interpret this feature.

But what elated me is the fact that this rains were predictable through daily Garbottam, while the sky was absolutely clear of clouds till a day ago currently. The present rains seem to be from a short term local activity. As per the rationale of Garbotatam, the presence of dark clouds that did not give rains on the observation day would give rains 195 days after that - when our location comes 180- degrees away from that initial location. Today's rains showed that there is indeed some science in this rationale which scientists have not yet grasped.

Another rationale of Garbottam is that if it rained on a day (thithi), there wont be rains on the 195th day after that on the same location. The corresponding Garbottam observation date for today is May 6th. On that date it rained in many parts of Tamilnadu except Chennai. On that date Chennai was cloudy. It had rained to day in Chennai and not in other parts of Tamilnadu. The Garbottam rule stands vindicated by this.

As per daily Garbottam chart, the next date of rainfall for Chennai is on 16th November. I have noted down that on the Garbottam observation date on May 9th, surface winds blew from East - South East direction. This was a change in the direction at that time. This means the expected movement of clouds and winds on 16th November must be from west and northwest - which is odd for the current NEM season. Will wait to see how / whether this materialises.


UPDATE on 21st November.


As I was going through Margazhi 2015 Garbottam observation and prediction, I found that what I wrote then matches with what we are experiencing in this NEM 2016! From 9th to 13th day of that Garbottam (Solar Garbottam) it showed dry days during NEM from October 10th onwards. Let me reproduce the links to those articles written from 7th to 11th January 2016. The titles themselves reveal the pathetic nature of NEM for Chennai.


The following is what I wrote on the 9th day of Garbottam (7th Jan 2016). Spoiling features did exist on the Garbottam day. Correspondingly during the NEM period now, mixed trend of Rainfall yoga and Rainfall deficient yogas are present together. 

10th October 2016 begins with deficit rainfall yogas or anavrishti yogas.

(1) Mars will be in Pooradam, the star that is crucial for water. And Mars, the fiery planet is in the lead with all the other planets towing behind it.

(2) Saturn is in front of Venus.

(3) There is no closeness between Mercury and Venus.

These show a dry spell or a retreat of Monsoon.


However there are some interesting combinations also at this time.

They are
(1) Mercury and Jupiter are conjunct which is a good rainfall yoga.

(2) Mercury has become combust as it comes within 14 degrees from the Sun. Mercury or Venus in combustion must give rainfall.

(3) In a couple of days after 10th October, Mercury will be directly behind the Sun while Venus continues to be in front of the Sun. Usually this line-up when it happens with Mercury and Venus within 30 degree span would be associated with good rainfall.  At this time in October, the Closeness between the two (Budha – Shukra sameepyam) is not there. So we have to see how this line-up works.

As Mars is in the lead with other planets behind it, there will be a tug of war like struggle between ativrishti and anavrishti rainfall yogas. 


However there is a hitch as Venus will be close to Saturn within 1 degree from 12 Noon tomorrow (8th January 2016) till 7 AM on 10thJanuary.

This means Venus, an important planet for rainfall will be defeated in planetary war with Saturn.

(1) Saturn in front of Venus gives famine conditions. (2) A Planetary war on a day of Garbottam mars rainfall for several days in the corresponding fortnight.

Already the fortnight (10th October to 23rd October 2016) that is under scrutiny for this 9th day Garbottam has Saturn in front of Venus.

The corresponding date now in the Garbottam period also had Venus behind Saturn and getting defeated by Saturn for nearly 2 days which means 2 fortnights.

Will there be a hiatus in NE Monsoon due to this from 23rd October and 15th November?


My fears have come true. The combination of Ativrishti (abundant Rainfall yoga) and Anavrishti yogas (deficient Rainfall yoga)  are playing with each other with result that Anavrishti yogas are gaining an upper hand. In addition, the garbottam on 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th and 13th day for Chennai showed poor results.

Presently 2 Anavrishti yogas are present along with Ativrishti yoga of Mars, Saturn and Sun in alternating signs (Mars in Capricorn and Saturn and Sun in Scorpio) and closeness of Mercury and Venus (this happens when the gap between them is getting reduced as they move).

Though Mars is in alternating sign with Saturn and Sun, it so happens that Mars is also in front of all the other planets and particularly Venus. This particular feature would mar rainfall. I checked the old rainfall records and found two dates that gave more than 20 cm in a day in Santa Cruz, Mumbai. They were 21-7-1982 and 16-6-1986. On those 2 dates Mars was in front of Saturn and Sun in alternating signs and almost all the other planets. However there was a difference with Jupiter in front of Mars on the former date and Mars in retrogression in the latter date. So that means something - that Mars not in the lead of other planets could give good rainfall as per this yoga.

Presently Mars is in the lead is a cause of concern and any failure of / reduction in the expected rainfall for South TN can be attributed to this feature. Another feature is the transit of Venus in Uttrashada ( Nirjala nadi) between Nov 30 and Dec 10 which is also a dampening factor marring rainfall. If these two features work, the present surge in rainfall in South TN would get a beating. As this is the first year of observation for me, I am also observing the developments and learning to synchronise the contradictory features. How these exceptions like features interact with rainfall yoga is something we have to understand by practical observation.

I happened to come across a news that said NEM 2016 is similar dry NEM 2012. When I checked the 2012 NEM months for planetary yogas, I found them to be severe with (1) no Ativrishti yoga in sight (2) Mars in front of all the planets and (3) absence of closeness of Mercury and Venus. Compared to that except point no 2, the other two features are favourable at present (2016 NEM). Therefore 2016 NEM would be 2/3 times better than 2012 NEM. Or Mars in the forefront would play the spoilsport is something we must wait and see.

Meanwhile a ray of hope was witnessed in the 13th (last day) of Garbottam. It can be read here:

Day – 13 (last day) of Garbottam 2015-16 – rains in December.

It showed some rains in the 2nd week of December. Moreover daily Garbottam chart that I have given in the above article shows some wet days around Christmas and stretches to January. But throughout this period Mars continuing to be in front of Venus and all the other planets in the zodiac is a big issue that is threatening to spoil rainfall. Whether this happens or not is something that would give us a very valuable insight on how powerful this forward march of Mars is going to be!

Another observation is that the currently existing Mercury- Venus closeness is associated with bringing snowfall / coldness wherever it is due, similar as how it is associated with bringing rainfall where there is rainfall season. Snowfall has started in parts of the USA. Unlike last year when there was no Mercury- Venus closeness during Christmas, this year this closeness continues during Christmas. Therefore Christmas would see snowfall in most places where it is due. 

43 comments:

Ramesh said...

Thanks a lot Jayasree for the predictions of rainfall based on Astrology. Just one clarification though. While there would be rainfall between Nov 16 and Dec 10 ( also during last week of Dec) across TN, predictions indicate that there is negligible or no scope for the repeat of Dec 2015 Chennai Floods. Can you please confirm my understanding? Rgds

jayasree said...

Yes, There is no repeat of Chennai floods this year. You can check the 3 charts of Garbottam for Oct, Nov and Dec to know the occurrence of rainfall for Chennai in general. The period between Nov 16 and Dec 10 is a period of plenty of rainfall accompanied with floods. Garbottam features show that Chennai is not the recipient of such a rainfall.

It was tough to interpret the places benefited by rainfall during that period, as I have no precedence to follow and this is the first year of detailed observation of rainfall astrology by me. The sign occupied by Sun and Saturn indicate North while the sign where Mars is transiting indicates south. I went by stars transited by Sun and Saturn. They indicate South and South west. Since it is NEM, I picked up South as the location for this rainfall. There is also a chance that northern parts of NEM limit could receive this rainfall. This is additionally supported by Moon's transit in Cancer at that time, as Cancer stands for North. Anyway the reality picture would give me better insights in locating at the places.

Yet another clue that made me locate the rains in the south and not north (of the NEM activity) is that food production is expected to be normal this year as per Durmukhi varusha phalan. Only Tamilnadu is yet to pick up as rains have not yet materialized so far in interior and south TN.

Srikanth said...

Really meticulous preparation Mam. It is an interesting exercise to track the rainfall events this year based on your inference. I am sure with this year's experience you will for sure be able to improve upon your inference next year. Way to Go Maam.

Ramesh said...

Jayasree,

Thanks for your detailed response with clarity. Very good analysis. It is good to see that you use Astrology for collective good.

Rgds

Lalita said...

My question is different. Will Jayalalithaa survive? Her health, whether one likes it or not, is important for Hinduism in Tamil Nadu. I am worried.

Aravamudhan Gopalaswamy said...

reg reply to Lalita, it was posted by me in 14th may 2016 before the election results. kindly carefully read the wordings in 6 lines at the the end of this posting.
quote -

Blogger Kudanthaiamudhan said...
JJ horoscope has Guru dasa- saturn bhukti running currently. Guru lord of 7th and 10th kendradipathyia dosha in the constellation of Ketu is in its own sign danushu exactly in 7th place from the mituna lagna. Bhukti lord saturn is in 8th place from jupiter in sashtangam placed at 2nd sign of maraka- kataga . saturn is in the constellation of lagna lord mercury. Saturn owns 8th and 9th signs with two faces of being a maraka and also as giver of luck and fortune. She has now guru-saturn bukthi -second half which is up to april 2017. Now in gochara jupiter is coming to 2nd ( not so good but not bad) saturn is in 4th sign in gochara. She suffered imprisonment during the first half of saturn besides having health problems. Now the second half of saturn will give the results of 9th the giver of luck. But both dasa-bukthi are in 6/8 angle is adverse to her now.Both lords are not beneficiaries.
In the natal horoscope of jj, she has four planets in rahu and ketu constellation- sun in rahu,mars,jupiter and moon are all in ketu stars. This indicates no family for her and her inclination towards the spiritualism. The powerful saturn in lagna star mercury in 2nd sign indicates her devotion to the people and poorer section and not for her herself and family . However winning this election for both JJ and MK is going to be a rude shock and surprise for everyone. Astrologically whoever wins and comes to power either JJ or MK, they can not stick to power beyond mid 2017 and big changes await later. it could be anything from hung assembly or related to the longevity of government or to its leader whoever or whatever it could be. Early/mid 2017 or even before this year end, many changes in political sphere of tamil nadu will take place.

May 14, 2016 at 1:18 PM

Lalita said...

Aravamudhan Gopalaswamy,

Thank you. I hope that Karunanidhi, Stalin and Kanimozhi do not come to power in 2017 then?

jayasree said...

Ms Lalita,

My pick on JJ's health was written in the comment section of the blog "The true history of Velankanni". The link is http://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2016/09/the-true-history-of-velankanni.html?showComment=1475693781217#c5119083089537245042

Scroll down that page and read my comment.

Lalita said...

Jayasree,

I read it with relief. Thank you.

vasu devan said...

Mam, will this kyant lead to floods in chennai? We are scared. Also based on your present observation, can you clarify the real status for november also for chennai? Pray there are no floods this time in chennai.

jayasree said...

I don't foresee any floods to Chennai from Kyant. What I have written in today's update is that there will be more rains than what is expected from Garbottam on the remaining dates of October. What is expected as per Oct garbottam is mild or much less rains. It is likely to be better than that. That is what I have meant. But then this must be checked in reality to know whether this theory really works. Presently, the planetary combinations show rains north of Chennai / Tamilnadu and in west of Tamilnadu.

In November the planetary combinations are too good for good rainfall. I expect the east and south east coast of TN to be benefited. This excludes Chennai as garbottam chart for Nov in Chennai is not encouraging. The dates (I have given in the article) 18, 19, 20, 23, 24 and 25 of November must be watched for good rains.

On the whole, both daily garbottam and solar garbottam did not show heavy rains in Chennai this year. Check the dates in Garbottam charts in the article.

Ramesh said...

Jayasree,

Great work for the community. Thanks for your regular / periodic updates on weather based on vedic astrology. It is very good to see that predictions made here for Sep and Oct 2016 matched with actual rainfall overall.

jayasree said...

Thanks Mr Ramesh.

Aravindan M.S. said...

@jayasree Mam,

You have made several predictions right so far & I'm following it everyday closely..

Till now no major rainfall happens in & around chennai as we didn't get enough rain in SW monsoon either..

I'm feared that whether we are going to wind up 2016 as Drought hit...

To segregate the current rain deficit, Is there any possibility of cloudburst in chennai coming days..?

And please provide some hint about 2017...

Thank you..

jayasree said...

@Aranvindan M.S.

Thanks for following the articles. You can check the Garbottan charts of Nov and Dec for rains in Chennai. I dont foresee cloudburst like rains for Chennai. But I showed two horoscopic charts between Nov 18 and 25. Those dates have probability for heavy rains. But the places indicated are in South TN.

Chennai scenario concurs with Solar garbottam done in Margazhi (read the old ones in Dec- Jan 2015-16). There is no widespread rainfall for Chennai in the coming months. But overall TN picture is good as per planetary combinations. Garbottam charts for chennai shows rainfall during Christmas and in the first week of Jan.

I will wrote on 2017 scenario based on planetary combinations. I am waiting for the New year Panchanga to be released to do that article. Most probably I will write that after observing Solar garbottam in the coming Margazhi month.

For pre-monsoon rains of 2017 season, the first level of observation period had started for Lakshadweep / Kerala areas on 31st October last week.

jayasree said...

The Solar Garbottam observation for rainfall season 2017 begins on 28th December 2016 and ends on 10th January 2017. I will post my analysis of both SWM and NEM 2017 after observing this garbottam - mostly by middle of January. Meanwhile, I am studying agricultural production & price level features of astrology and planning to write them as well. I am looking for links to this with rainfall astrology.

Aravindan M.S. said...

Thanks a lot mam..

I follow several people's rain predictions (I don't want to name them) and your predictions outplayed everyone.

God gifted you a unique, versatile skills & knowledge..

Keep your good work up & wish you all the best...

jayasree said...

@ Mr Aravindan.

No no, its nothing to do with any unique skill that I possess. You see, this rainfall prediction is known as Purva Chitthi or prior knowledge and any one who is aware of this knowledge would be celebrated as a great astrologer in Kali yuga, that is all. Varahamihira says this in chapter 21, verses 3 and 4 in Brihad samhita. Let me quote them here.

Ch 21-3:- "The predictions of an astronomer who pays exclusive attention, both day and night to the indications of rain afforded by pregnant clouds, will as little fail of success as the words of Rishis".

Ch 21-4:- "What science can probably excel, in interest, the science relating to the prediction of rain, by a thorough study of which one though ignorant in other matters passes for a great astrologer in this Kali Yuga".

Any one can do this observation and follow and apply some easy planetary combinations to predict rainfall that is to occur 195 days later. This knowledge was widespread in India before the loss of our traditional knowledge due to invasions. I know of a person from Nagarkovil who told me that he had heard his grandfather talking about and watching garbottam and casually saying whether it would rain or not. Many issues related to rainfall and success of agriculture was common knowledge until a century ago.

For example, the Pambu Panchangam that always comes with a cover picture of a snake and farmer with a plough is actually the easiest depiction of when to sow the seeds and whether the crop will be safe. The snake exhibits the components of Rahu phani chakra (read this article http://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2013/09/food-security-comes-from-farmers-not.html) and the farmer, the Kalappai chakra. Just by visual observation, the farmers learnt when to sow.

This knowledge is lost and forgotten now. What people are thinking or made to think is that astrology makes or mars one's fortunes and one can influence them with pariharas to planets. Originally astrology was intended to help in mundane affairs and as a precaution in life matters.

There are many articles on rainfall astrology in this blog which give an idea of how to predict rainfall of the next season. It is so simple that basically one needs to watch the sky and surroundings every day. For example as I am writing this reply, the sky is overcast and sun is hidden occasionally in my place. There is a mild hot wind from the west and distant places look smogy. The day is Shukla ashtami in Aippasi. The reverse of is calculated as Krishna ashtami after 6 months. That is Chitthrai Krishna ashtami.

Today Moon joins malefic Mars. Therefore the present condition is capable of generating thunder storms / cyclonic rainfall of a subdued nature on Krishna ashtami of Chithrai. The date is April 19, 2017. On that date, Mercury is approaching Sun in retrograde motion and would be in deep conjunction. This could aid in rainfall. Therefore April 19th of 2017 is a probable date for rainfall with thunder / cyclone but subdued in my place as not all the 5 features of Garbottam are present today.

jayasree said...

Just by a general outlook, a serious reader of these blogs can predict the rainfall scenario in pre-monsoon times of 2017. Let me give a hint on how to do that.

The present period corresponds to Chithrai (count 6 months from the present Aippasi and see the reverse of the Moon's phase.) Last week we saw cloudy days without rainfall in Chennai. Those cloudy days fulfill Garbottam features. Therefore the corresponding period would get rainfall. It comes in Chithrai. Look at the planetary combinations in Chithirai, there will be no malefics opposite to Chithirai (Mesha rasi) and Vaikasi (Rishabha rasi). Mercury - Venus closeness also is there at that time but Mercury will be in the lead. Therefore pre-monsoon showers from air circulation (veppa chalanam) and thunder storms will be possible in Chithrai and Vaikasi. But the break to the monsoon comes in Aani month (Gemini) which will see Saturn in opposition. Malefic planet in opposition to the Mercury- Venus mars rainfall. At that time Mercury and Venus are far away too - 40+ degrees apart. This also reduces the rainfall. Therefore by simple and preliminary observation we can say that though pre-monsoon showers will be good next year and the breaking of monsoon will be subdued and there would be an lull in June- July. At the time of Monsoon arrival Sun and Mars conjoin in Taurus / Vaikasi.

This is the overall general scenario. Further on we have to see nitty-gritties to fine tune.

By this analysis I expect first part of Agni Nakshatra period to be wet in 2017 (first week of May 2017) as that period corresponds to last week's cloudiness in Chennai. Similarly the hot days at present (in Aippasi) corresponds to the Agni Nakshatra days of 2016 when there was some wetness on some days. Rains in Agni nakshatra mars rainfall in Aippasi and vice versa.

RITIKA JOSHI said...

hello Jayasree mam,
this is the second time i have to write my query regarding vishaka-4 nakshatra in this blog. I am sorry but i have no other way to reach out to you.
Mam why dont you respond to people's query anymore over your blog
http://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2009/01/moola-aslesha-jyeshta-vishaka-are-they.html?m=1

You have explained very well that stars are not bad but just signify something. Ill effects should be seen under natal chart.
Could you please also tell which planet the 9th house in natal should be present or not present to confirm that no dosh is present?

Your precise answers have always helped people. I seek for your same help please.
you may also mail me in person if dont want to post. ritika_joshii@yahoo.com

jayasree said...

Ms Ritika,

I do respond to comments that merit a response. You had written in your comment in that blog that your acharyas have objected to your proposed marriage to the guy whom you love. In that case you can not expect me to write against the acharyas. If you want, you take the print out of my blog and try to convince your acharya. Moreover in issues of this nature where marriage proposals are made or marred, talk to all the parties concerned and bring out a solution. Good luck.

I expect you to stop writing mails after mails like this under different blogs. Please note that any more of mails like this would be deleted.

decefriteen said...

Dear Jayasree Madam
After the Trump forecasts,your monsoon forecasts is on target.
Can you please let us know how the remaining part of the monsoon will fare for North TN and South TN.
Farmers in the delta region are very worried and time is running out for them.A late revival will be of no use.
NTN needs rains to augment the lakes storage which is abysmal at this point stoking fears of a possible drought from Mar 2017.
Rgds

jayasree said...

@ decefriteen,

I am also equally concerned and disturbed over the dismal show of NEM. I stand by what I have written in the above article. As per the article, South TN and coastal regions would get good / sufficient rains. As per varusha phalan, agriculture would be good. I am studying the features of another type of horoscopy called vegetable horoscopy which tells in advance whether summer and winter crops would be good. I think this horoscopy must be combined with rainfall predictions. In a few days I would be posting the details of how we can find out this prediction on agricultural output.

As per that, the winter crops of 2016 would not fail whereas the summer crops of 2017 would be just above normal. Not much must be invested on Summer 2017 crops.

As far as Chennai (NTN) is concerned, the Garbottam charts for NEM are not encouraging. This means reservoirs would not be full by this year end. However some early showers in March, April and May of 2017 are possible as per preliminary observation. I am yet to study in detail.

So far Margazhi garbottam is dependable for daily forecast for the entire season. I will post the Margazhi 2015-16 garbotatm success / failure in a few days. That would give an idea of how far we can take it into consideration in the upcoming garbottam season. These details are being written for anyone from any corner of India to apply them in their places of observation and know in advance the behaviour of monsoon in their respective regions.

Two new features that I observed in the current period is that the Ativrishti yoga (good rainfall due to Mars, Saturn and Sun in alternate signs) that I have noted for now between Nov 16 to Dec 10, has Mars in the front of Saturn and Sun. It so happens that Mars is also in front of all the other planets and particularly Venus. This particular feature would mar rainfall. I checked the old rainfall records and found two dates that gave more than 20 cm in a day in Santa Cruz, Mumbai. They were 21-7-1982 and 16-6-1986. On those 2 dates Mars was in front of Saturn and Sun in alternating signs and almost all the other planets. However there was a difference with Jupiter in front of Mars on the former date and Mars in retrogression in the latter date. So that means something - that Mars not in the lead of other planets could give good rainfall as per this yoga.

Presently Mars is in the lead is a cause of concern and any failure of expected rainfall for South TN can be attributed to this feature. Another feature is the transit of Venus in Uttrashada ( Nirjala nadi) between Nov 30 and Dec 10 which is also a dampening factor marring rainfall. If these two features work, the present surge in rainfall in South TN would get a beating. As this is the first year of observation for me, I am also observing the developments and learning to synchronise the contradictory features. How these exceptions like features interact with rainfall yoga is something we have to understand by practical observation.

Yet another news I read pertains to similar dry NEM in 2012. When I checked the 2012 NEM months for planetary yogas, I found them to be severe with (1) no Ativrishti yoga in sight (2) Mars in front of all the planets and (3) absence of closeness of Mercury and Venus. Compared to that except point no 2, the other two features are favourable at present (2016 NEM). Therefore 2016 NEM would be 2/3 times better than 2012 NEM.

jayasree said...

An update was added today (21st Nov 2016) in the above article.

decefriteen said...

Dear Jayasree Madam
Next week rain forecasts look good for entire TN including Chennai.
Hope you can check whether it matches with your outlook.

jayasree said...

@ decefriteen,

I have nothing new or different to say on the current astrological features other than what I have written so far.

As on Nov 28th, a major rainfall features does exist which I had written in the table in the article. On that day Mercury enters Sagittarius and joins Venus. These two planets are going to be together there without any other planet in between. The entry of Mercury must trigger rainfall on Nov 28th and 29th as per rainfall yoga in east coastal regions.

But on the same date Venus enters Nirjala nadi which can not give rains. We have to see how this contradictory feature works. For Chennai, there was no Garbottam to support rainfall on those dates though conjunction of Moon with malefics did exist on the corresponding garbottam dates. Such conjunction normally gives thunder showers or cyclones. But absence of Garbottam and Venus in Nirjala Nadi are spoilers.

Kavin Kathirarasu said...

Ma'am if it rains well in December what would be the overall rainfall departure at the end of this NEM 2016???






jayasree said...

@ Mr Kavin Kathirarasu,

This astrological analysis is not about quantum of rainfall and the deviation. At the most I have given whether the rainfall would be heavy or moderate. But given the current developments, the anavrishti yogas (deficient rainfall yogas) are spoiling the rainfall yogas that are supposed to benefit South Tamilnadu.

Kavin Kathirarasu said...

Ma'am can we expect more rainfall in following couple of weeks????

decefriteen said...

Dear Jayasree Madam
You were again on target.
The cyclone fizzled out and offered little by the way of rains.

Weather forecasters are looking at 1 more cyclone by 8th or 9th Dec which seemed to be going North - away from TN.Yr comments?

Rgds

jayasree said...

@ decefriteen,

7-8th cyclone would materialise well, I think. For, the garbottam chart for December for Chennai shows rainfall for Chennai. Also the planetary chart shows rainfall in Northern Tamilnadu. As per the garbottam chart, 3 spells are going to be there for Chennai,(1) starting from 7th and ending on 13th, (2) from 19th till after Christmas - this could be from one or 2 systems as on two occasions Moon was with malefics in the garbottam dates and you can check the dates in the Dec garbottam chart (3) Around 1st January till 3rd January. I just mentioned it with a question mark as I was not sure whether that period usually gets rains. But garbottam observation showed excellent features of cloud, breeze and drizzles on 23, 24, & 25th June 2016 which correspond to Dec 31, Jan 1, and 2.

As for now, that is 1st and 2nd Dec 2016, the garbottam chart for Chennai does not show rainfall. I double checked the data entered in my diary and found no garbottam in the day time. But the rains happening now in the day time shows that the garbottam must have occurred at night / after midnight. I could not check night time garbottam on all days. So I could have missed the night time garbottam which is why it is not reflected in the garbottam chart.

Based on the quantum of rainfall that is now experienced now, it is probable that rainfall would be more from 7th-8th system and month end system. Overall December would be wet.

However my worries on Mars being in the forefront and how or whether it would affect rainfall would have to be watched in the 7th-8th system. If that system gives rainfall on the dates given in the garbottam chart and the rainfall also was normal and above, then we can say that Mars-in- the- forefront yoga is weaker / subdued in front of other 2 rainfall giving yogas (Mars, Saturn and Sun in alternate signs and Mercury- Venus closeness).

I would post an update in the article on this soon.

jayasree said...

@ Mr Kavin Kathirarasu,

Please read the above comment by me. I would be posting an update soon on this.

Kavin Kathirarasu said...

Thank you ma'am ..... Can western TN get more rains like other parts of TN?????

jayasree said...

@ Mr Kavin Kathirarasu,

The present Nada rains must benefit Western side of Tamilnadu as moon is now at Purvashada which signifies west. At the moment Venus is entering the next sign, Capricorn, that could be the reason for good rains reported in many parts of TN. But once inside Capricorn, the direction is south. We must wait and see how Venus in Nirjala nadi (Uttrashada)gives or spoils rain.

The next date for Western TN is 7th onwards till Karthigai deepam. If the anticipated rains as per my Garbottam materialises, western TN also would get some rains, but major part of the rainfall activity would be in northern section, in North Tamilnadu and north of that.

Bhaskar srinivasan said...

Beloved amma,

thanks for your post on the rainfall details.
I am M.Sc geography student and had done project on trend analysis of NEM.
I want a clarification, from your astrology part that Trichy (Now my resident city) is showing wind direction from west. which one can be sure that will destabilise the low pressure either by diverting the low pressure centre to higher latitudes or by weaking the pressure (as it happened to nada - as it came near the shore it weakened). My question is the same phenomena is present in the system which is there to be on 8-10 of dec. I request you to answer

jayasree said...

Dear Mr Bhaskar Srinivasan,

Thanks for the input you have given.

Between now and 7th-8th, there is one similar feature astrologically. It is the star Purvashada (known as Pooradam - a first rate star for giving rainfall). Now the present spurt in rains from Nada had come form Moon transiting Pooradam today. On 8th, Mercury (which is still enjoying the rainfall yoga of closeness with Venus)will enter Pooradam. Though it will give windy conditions, it can give some rainfall as per Sapta nadi chakra (search my blog to get into the article where I had given that chakra). Star Pooradam stands for Western part / direction. Nada gave some rainfall to Kerala (west) which was odd I think, for a system coming from BOB and crossing TN coast.

On the other hand your input of winds coming from west and spoiling the system makes me relate it to Mars. At present 2 Anavrishti - rainfall spoiling yogas are there. One is a powerful one and has Mars in front of all the other planets. This condition continues till June next year. So this is definitely a serious feature to be watched and judged based on whether we have rainfall now inspite of this yoga. At the moment, Mars has moved from Sravana to Dhanishta - both signifying North west. From what you have written, I am tempted to relate the spoiler kind of winds from the west to Martian effect for being in the front.

The second Anavrishti yoga is Venus in Nirjala Nadi (Uttrashada) till Dec 11th. This would give cloudy weather but less rainfall.

Both these planets (Mars and Venus) involved in spoiling yogas are also part of powerful rainfall yogas that are present now. They have to play both a do-gooder work and a spoiling work. So the tug of war kind of situation is happening now. But based on what has happened so far, both Mars and Venus are slightly on positive side. However with Venus entering Capricorn today and coming right behind Mars, rainfall spoiling can be witnessed in south as Capricorn signifies south. Till Dec end this situation continues.

The upcoming system has been indicated in the chart in my article above - moon in watery sign, (Pisces) 5th from Saturn and Sun. Pisces signifies North and hence I expect rains in North Tamilnadu. The Garbottam chart also shows rainfall in Chennai. It is possible places north of Chennai also could receive rainfall. I wish you read my Garbotatm article relevant to Dec here http://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2016/01/day-13-last-day-of-garbottam-2015-16.html



jojo said...

I have been following your blog for quite sometime now and appreciate the great work and in depth knowledge. Now that we are close to Dec 4th as predicted by Arcaud almanac do we see floods or not?

What could be that special mention on madurai for 4th December be?

Thank you!

decefriteen said...

Dear Jayasree madam
Weather forecasters are now tracking a system which may become a cyclone and forecasted to cross AP/Orissa next week. This could mean no rains for TN.
But we will go with your forecasts by which this cyclone could cross between Pondy and Nellore.

Need more insights from your end.

Rgds

Bhaskar srinivasan said...

Beloved amma,

thanks for your reply. I also want to join you in this service. Kindly instruct me on what are the types of data that i have to take and forward to you (as trichy is in centre of tamilnadu)in forth coming garbottam period., as i see that the input for prediction is based on chennai. if we do the analysis for both trichy,chennai,Covai and Tirunelveli., (As tamilnadu can be considered as a triangle and the points given above serves the observation points). i have read your post of garbottam earlier, (as i am not having much of astrology knowledge) it is not possible for me to do the calculation. but i can take the data like condition of a particular day and can mail you. so that it serves as the data for your analysis.

T.S.Bhaskar
9095353308
srgmsbhaskar@gmail.com

jayasree said...

@jojo,

Any floods in sight for 4th December (tomorrow)? No.

After last year's deluge in Chennai, it seems many people including Panchanga writers have fallen into a trap of expecting deluge once again. Panchanga does deal with many combinations for rainfall and also for drought. Perhaps last year's memory makes people to caution people at every clue on rainfall that they come across. You will find the same panchangas telling about dryness and failure of rains but they had not struck the eyes of the reader.

The major feature that Arcot Panchanga or any others in the know of Panchanga features for rainfall had mentioned is "Adi- Thithi-k-kuri" about which I had written an article here:- http://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2016/07/29th-july-2016-watch-out-this-day-to.html

This adi-k-kuri having Rohini combining with Krishna Ekadashi is supposed to give rainfall throughout the rainy season. This was written by Arcot Panchangam and was extensively shared. What I wrote on that continues to be in the lead of the top 10 most read of the week for many weeks now. The link is http://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2016/06/once-in-400-years-rains-predicted-on.html

The reality check of this Adi-k-kuri shows that it was a failure. According to this it must have rained throughout the season but it didn't. So there is no point in depending on it - in the current season. By this I also mean that this feature must not be dumped but read with other rainfall features. There may be times when this feature worked well but it must have been accompanied with other combinations for rainfall.

A major feature of this Adi-k-kuri is that thunder clouds must have gathered at evening twilight on the day of Adi-k-kri. This year this date was July 29th and the clouds did gather on that date but soon dissipated. I gave an update on this observation in my article http://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2016/07/29th-july-2016-watch-out-this-day-to.html

Whatever rain that was expected did not materialise in the said period perhaps due to other spoiling features. So I would say that this feature (which Arcot Panchangam said) must not be taken in isolation but combined with all the other rainfall favouring features and interpreted accordingly. For this to do, only Panchanga features are not enough. Planetary movements and Garbottam features in every place must be taken into consideration.

jayasree said...

@jojo

Now coming to the points in your comment (1) why Dec 4th and (2) why Madurai.

(1) It is true that starting from the first day of Karthigai month a strong rainfall giving yoga started. This was on Nov 16th which you would find written in the planetary chart in the article above. On 4th Dec Moon will be in Capricorn - a sign where Moon is supposed to give rainfall when it is in Sravana and Dhanishta. This is combined with rainfall yoga that already started. From Capricorn Moon aspects watery sign (its own) Cancer and is aspected by Saturn conjucnt with sun from another watery sign (Scorpio). Perhaps this was the rationale behind picking out Dec 4th for floods.

(2) For Madurai, I can not think of any other explanation than the star indicator. Perhaps the Panchanga writers have some combinations for places based on which they had written like that.

With all this I want once again state that this is the first year I am checking personally the rainfall features with real time rainfall. This has certainly given many clues on how to interpret the astrological features of rainfall and how to synchronise the contradictory features.

So far in the current year, flood indicators did come twice once in August when all planets came on one side of the Sun. The region was Vindhyas. It did cause floods in some places in Madhya pradesh during that period. Read Rainfall check part -5 - http://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2016/07/rainfall-check-5-for-august-2016.html

The next period is between Nov 16 and Dec 10th in which I zeroed in on 2 sets of dates which I had written in the above article with horoscopes. Those dates are over. While 1st set did see moderate rainfall, the 2nd set did not see rainfall. The reasons for the failure also were analysed by me in the further updates and comments. After 10th Dec no astrological feature for floods exist. So people can rest assured.

The Panchanga features for rainfall can be read here - http://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2013/04/rainfall-prediction-part-7-miscellany.html

jayasree said...

@decefriteen,

Please check the dates in Dec Garbottam chart in the article. They are relevant for my place of observation in South Chennai. They show some rainfall on the dates expected from the upcoming system. The planetary situation favours northern direction. Since my place shows rainfall, Chennai and North TN may very well be within the sight of this system.

Ironically yesterday (2nd) there was no indication of rainfall as per Garbottam in my place, but it rained very well from late afternoon onwards till today morning. How to justify this? Perhaps I missed the night time Garbottam. Another reason is that the failed Garbottam of the past would give in the next occasion of rainfall. The trends so far make me think that planetary influence is the determining feature for rainfall. Even if there is Garbottam, if planetary features do not favour, rainfall would be affected, but it can come back once favourable planetary combination starts.

jayasree said...

@ Mr Bhaskar Srinivasan,

It is not possible to combine other places for Garbottam based prediction. Garbottam applies to one's place of observation. It is like we have different observatories in Meenambakkam and Nungambakkam giving the rainfall data in their respective places. As such each one must do this observation in his place to know whether it would rain in that place during the rainfall season.

The details of what must be watched and what one needs to do were written in my 7 part series in 2013. The entire series can be read here http://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2013/04/rainfall-prediction-part-7-miscellany.html

How to see Garbottam can be read here - http://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2012/12/rainfall-prediction-part-1.html

If people from different locations observe this and record the observation it is possible to arrive at a conclusion on whether there would be widespread rainfall or isolated ones or whether such rainfall comes from a systeme developing from BOB.

For what we may call long range prediction, the solar Garbottam of Sun's transit in Pooradam star in Margazhi is done. For 2017 season this Garbottam starts on 28th of this month. I will be posting the Garbottam observation of the fortnight long observation of this period in this blogspot. Before that I would post the compilation of last year's Garbottam (impacting the rainfall now) for better understanding. Those interested may first read the link I have given above in this comment to know how Garbottam is done. And follow my posts from 28th Dec onwards.

The tricky part of it is the planetary combinations favouring or disfavouring rainfall. I will write them for next year's season along with Garbottam observations.

One needs to have Panchanga of next year to pinpoint the day which is based on thithi. I rely on Srinivasan Panchangam (drik). Arcot or Vakhya Panchanga are not accurate as can be seen in the discrepancies in identifying Navanayakas. For example Arcot Panchanga which people are talking now, has identified Maghadhipathi as Mercury. Meghadhipathi is identified from the day's lord when Sun enters Arudra star. For Durmikhi Varusham, this Arudra Pravesaham happened on June 21st at 11 PM. Tuesday was the day. Its ruler is Mars. Therefore Megahdhipathi is mars and not Mercury (the next day's lord) The current year's rainfall pattern follows Martian whimsicality and nor Mercurian rains. This is a singular point to say that devastating floods of last year would not replicate this year.