Monday, December 26, 2016

Rainfall 2017 – Level 1(Panchanga-based)

The year long observation of astrology -based features for predicting rainfall in 2016, has given me some insights on the reliability of certain features which I will presenting here as 4 levels of prediction.

Level 1 deals with Panchanga features which are 3 in number. (1) The indication of rainfall in the verse of the Year. (2) The kind of Megha running in that year (3) Arudra Pravesha of the Sun.

Level 2 deals with planetary combinations that help or spoil rainfall during different parts of the year.

Level 3 deals with Solar / Margazhi Garbottam which is observed for the duration of Sun’s transit in the star Purvashada in the month of Margazhi. This year this period starts at 11 PM on 28th December 2016 and gets over at 12-57 AM on the early morning of 11th January 2017.

Level 4 deals with observation of Garbottam every day, (must have started in the month of Karthigai itself to judge the pre-monsoon showers) till the end of June next year.

In the current article, the Level 1 features are discussed to give a preliminary look at the kind of rainfall we are likely to get in the year 2017.

(1) The Verse of the Year.

There is a tradition of 60 year cycle with each of the years having its own nature of things happening. It is believed that the predictive part of the years have been evolved after observation and repeatability of events every 60 years. The predictions are available in the form of verses in Tamil, authored by Idai-k-kaadanaar. The main focus of these predictions is on rainfall and agriculture.

An interesting part of this cycle is that the same year is not applicable throughout India. For example while the current year is Durmukhi in South India, it is Plavanga in North India. As such there is variation in the prediction of rainfall for north and south India in any given year. This seems to fit with the varying behaviour of SWM and NEM which have a bearing in North India and South India respectively. Though it needs a separate research for all the 60 years of rainfall, I am going with this feature Year prediction as this is the foremost feature in any Panchanga and the kings of yore had relied on this to prepare their resources for the best or worst rainfall season.

The upcoming New Year in April 2017 is known as “Hevilambi” in South India and in Tamilnadu. By the name, Vilamb, it means delay, decline or something that is unprofitable.  There will be less rainfall in Hevilambi year as per the verse which is reproduced below.


It says “there would be less rains; price level would fall; agricultural production would be less; there would be wars /warring tendencies; more deaths would happen; rulers would be unjust; there would be destruction from fire”.

The Year applicable for North India is Keelaka. The Verse for Keelaka is given below.


It says, “There would be abundance of rains; Even the ill-disposed would find gains; Mankind would be happy; There would be very good agricultural production; Country would prosper; There would be all round development”.

If we equate this with SWM season of North India, it is indicated to be bountiful. We will wait and see whether this verse and its prediction prepared by Idai-k-kaadanaar of Tamil lands of yore, is applicable to North India.

The Year verse is only one factor of many other ones that aid in rainfall prediction. However the Durmukhi year verse (applicable for 2016 rainfall season) and the previous one in Manmatha year (for 2015) were found to reflect the real conditions on rainfall front in Tamilnadu.

(2) Megha (cloud) of the Year.

There is a 9-Megha (cloud) concept coming from times of yore. There is an old Siddhar verse on how this is calculated right from the start of Kali Yuga. As per this concept, clouds form in specific nature each year for a duration of 9 years which gets repeated every 9 years. Based on the nature of the Megha, the rainfall activity is also judged. In an article written in January 2016 I showed a similarity between the Vaaruna Megha (The cloud of the Oceans) of 2015 and the image of the earth blanketed by clouds photographed from Space by ISS astronaut Scott Kelly in November 2015.



It may have something to do with positive IOD or some such concept of meteorological science.  Only a blended analysis of this Megha concept and meteorological features can reveal the idea behind each Megha.

Year 2016 had Neela Megha which is of a nature that gives rains where it normally does not rain and fails those places that usually get regular rainfall. And this turned out to be true as Kerala faced a deficit and rainfall deficient regions of Telangana and Bengal received good rainfall.

Year 2017 has Kaala Megha. This name is a popular one and very revealing. Kaala megha means dark clouds. Kaala Megha is a dark-cloud that suddenly bursts to give heavy rainfall. It also means unexpected heavy rains. The nature of this Megha is that it comes with heavy winds. Windiness and speed are the main features. This could mean rainfall from storms.

If we look at the previous years of Kaalamegha, there had been good rains for Tamilnadu in those years. The following table shows the annual rainfall in mm for Tamilnadu and also the rainfall from NEM (last column) along with the Megha of each year.


As per the Megha concept of 2017, there would be sudden and heavy rains accompanied with stormy conditions.

(3) Arudra Pravesha of the Sun.

Readers may be familiar with the word “Arudra Darshan”. The transit of Moon in Arudra Star on the day of Full Moon in the month of Margazhi is celebrated in all Shiva temples as Arudra Darshan. In olden Tamil lands, that day marked the beginning of Paavai Nonbu, one of its goals being praying for bountiful rainfall in the next year. Exactly 6 months after that day, it is Sun’s turn to enter Arudra star which always happens in the month of June (Tamil month of Aani). These two are exactly opposite to each other – separated in space by 180 degrees. The prayer for rainfall that started on the day of Moon entering Arudra in Margazhi would be reflected on the day the Sun enters Arudra star in Aani. The exact moment of Sun’s entry in to Arudra would reveal the nature of rainfall from then onwards. Therefore the analysis of Arudra Pravesha is an important feature in rainfall prediction.

The details of how to check Arudra Pravesha can be read HERE.

In 2017, Sun enters Arudra at 5 AM on the early morning hours of 22nd June. As per Vedic astrology the day is Wednesday.

Day lord of the week:- Mercury (Wednesday). Rains accompanied with winds / storms.

Thithi at the time of entry:- Trayodashi (13th thithi). Good for rains.

Star at the time of entry:- Kritthika. Prosperity.

Yoga at the time of entry:-  Dhriti. Good yield of crops.

Karana at the time of entry:- Garija. Prosperity.

The Lagna at the time of entry:-  Taurus. Always rains.

The Kala at the time of entry:-  Night , before dawn. Good rains. Increase in yield of cereals.

Location of Moon at the time of entry:- In Taurus, earthy sign in Rasi and in Aquarius, airy sign in Navamsa. Winds would take away the rains.

Inference:- Except the last factor everything else supports good rainfall. The last factor, that is, Moon’s location shows windy conditions.

This concurs with KalaMegha which is accompanied with winds and storms.
This also concurs with Meghadhipathi concept.

Meghadhipathi is the lord of the day when Sun enters Arudra (1st point above).
It is Mercury. Mercury is associated with windiness.

When Mercury is the Meghadhipathi, there would be rains with thunders and hailstorms. There would be more rains in the central part of the country with medium yield of crops.

Meghadhipathi Mercury reinforces Kalamegha nature of rains which is associated with sudden outburst of rains from dark clouds accompanied with winds.


Conclusion:-

Of the 3 factors, the last two support good rainfall accompanied with or caused by winds / storms / cyclones.

If we take the Keelaka varusha phalan for North India (SWM), it is also supportive of good rains for North India. Therefore 1st Level of rainfall prediction indicates good SWM on all the 3 counts for North India which would be mostly accompanied with winds / storms.

The Hevilambi varusha phalan (South India / Tamilnadu) is negative, but the past records of Kalamegha for Tamilnadu and for NEM show a decent show of rainfall. The Arudra Pravesha lagna was taken for Chennai and the overall scenario of the Pravesha is good. The lagna is favourable for Chennai.

How all these blend to give rainfall must be checked through other levels of prediction. The 2nd level of prediction to be posted tomorrow would further fine-tune the 1st level prediction for SWM and for NEM (Tamilnadu) given above.

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The entire literature of astrological features of rainfall prediction can be read in the following links.
Part 2:-Solar ingress


The same can be read in Tamil in the following links:



All the astrological articles on prediction of Rainfall 2016 can be read here.


6 comments:

erode rc said...

Dear Mam,

It is good that I have an opportunity to read this wonderful article on rains and it is the high time for TN to have such articles published and read by many to follow some instructions of nature. Where by i am coming through the article, i had little doubts to be followed :

a) pravesha of moon in Aruda star has significance along with paavai nombu. As you said, it is good to hold paavai nombu, which will help, getting good rains during the month of june. And so, kindly elaborate on the methods/rules/lines to be followed to conduct a paavai nombu by a group of women during the month of margazhi (keeping in mind of the modern world) which will fetch good rains at the apt.time of june every year.

Here I am living at the back of Lord Kasthuri Ranganathar Koil, famous of Margazhi urchavam. Thiruppavai and Nalaayiram Dhivyaprababandam are beign chanted daily in the temple. And I wish to collect a group of women to conduct paavai nombu. I would like to guide us on conducting the rituals in a simple and effective manner.
b) Apart from this, what are the other sources to get rainfall, as like in olden days, we used to get thrice rainfall, by conducting some type of rituals, by an ordinary man.

Please reply me to email usha.midori@gmail.com

Thanks in advance

jayasree said...

Dear Ms Usha,

Kindly note that I am not writing private mails. Hence replying through this comment.

The basic requirement for Paavai nonbu is a river with sandy banks! A flowing water body is needed.

Time period is - Starting on the Full moon day of Margazhi and going on for 3 months. Homa for Shiva is done on the starting date by men on the river banks. Today this has become Arudra Darshan festival in Shiva temple.

On the starting date all women and children take part. After that only children continue to throng the river bed.

The time is pre-dawn.

Though these are impractical nowadays, the spirit of Paavai nonbu continues through the early morning (pre-dawn) movement of devotees thronging temples in Margazhi and Iyapppa devotees taking bath at pre-dawn and thronging temples and women and kids spending time outside in the pre-dawn foggy atmosphere for laying Kolam in front of their houses.

For details please go through the article in the following links written by me. You may browse my blog through the search engine found on top of this page by typing Paavai nonbu for more articles.

(1) Paavai nonbu - How is it done? - https://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2008/12/paavai-nonbu-how-it-was-done.html

(2) The connection between Paavai nonbu and rainfall - https://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2008/12/connection-between-paavai-nonbu-and.html

(3) Maaragzhiyum, Paavai nonbum - https://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2010/12/blog-post.html

(4) Paavai nonbum, Thai neeradalum Part 1 - http://www.tamilhindu.com/2010/01/paavai-nonbu-and-thai-neeraadal/

(5) Paavai nonbum, Thai neeradalum Part 2 - http://www.tamilhindu.com/2010/01/paavai-nonbu-and-thai-neeraadal-2/

Saravanan Laxmanan said...

Respected Madam,

Thanks for the various articles that you are sharing with us and i feel very happy to read them. I never knew about the various traditional truths expounded by our scholars & siddhars - until i started reading your blog articles. I will encourage my daughters to read your blog to learn more about our glorious tradition that needs to be strengthened further.

You had indicated the following line " When Mercury is the Meghadhipathi, there would be rains with thunders and hailstorms." in this article and i wanted to narrate my experience about the same.

My family was in Kodaikanal on Sunday - 16th of APRIL 2017 & we had gone there on a small holiday trip. On that day we were in a park and around noon - warm sunshine gave way to dark clouds in a short time and soon it started raining. We thought this was temporary rain caused by the passing clouds. But after 5 minutes of rain, we experienced hailstorm and it was a totally suprising event for us to see small but hard green-peas sized ice pellets falling on us. The hailstorms continued for another 10 minutes. Since we had small children with us - we couldn't move out of the park fast and we were left hiding under a small tree to save ourselves from the hailstorm. Pictures of this hailstorm event were published in local & Tamil newspapers printed from Dindigul & Madurai regions on the next day.

I believe my above stated incident would be a proof for propensity of hailstorms happening due to Mercury being Megadhipathi and also about Kaalamegha (dark clouds) form of rains.

Thanks.

jayasree said...

@ Mr Saravanan Laxmanan,

Thanks for sharing your views. You have given valuable inputs in understanding better the rainfall predictions. Apart from Meghadhipathi and Kala Mega concepts, one more idea has come up from your experience. On 16th April Mercury was in backward motion and moving towards Sun. That whips up hot winds. But at the same time, it was moving towards Venus ( a good indicator for rainfall) and Sun's location in Aswini right from 14th were factors favoring rainfall from thunder and hail.

In other words, Since 14th April, we are having a combination of severe heat and windy combination together - both having a connection to rainfall yoga (sun in Aswini brings thunder storms. Mercury in retrogression and reaching deep conjunction with Sun supports winds and its movement to get close to Venus is a rainfall yoga,).

You may like to read my other - continuing posts on this topic, particularly the April rainfall scenario https://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2017/04/rainfall-check-2-april-2017.html

Ravi Kumar said...

Mam,

Well researched prediction. This article clearly shows how our ancestors were so advanced scientifically.
Modern greedy humans changed the climate so badly, uncertainity is increasing day by day

Lets pray GOD for bountiful rainfall allover India

jayasree said...

Thanks Mr Ravi Kumar.
You may be interested in reading the subsequent parts of the above article. Please read them under the tag "Rainfall 2017".