29th July 2016 – watch out this day to predict NE monsoon.

Update added at the end of the article on prediction of NE Monsoon based on this day. 

Tomorrow the 29^th of July is important on 2 counts for rainfall prediction. One is that it is ‘Rohini Yoga’ day – a day that is watched intensely throughout the period of moon crossing Rohini star. This day is watched to predict rainfall in the next 4 months that include NE monsoon season for Tamilnadu.

This day occurs every year, but what is additionally occurring this year is that this day coincides with the waning phase of Dasami and Ekasdasi. This combination is called “Aadi-thithi-k-kuri” This is a rare occurrence which was pinpointed in Arcot Panchangam and interpreted to indicate once in 400 years rains.

On this day if thunder showers are experienced at twilight, there will be good rains in the next 4 months. Even the presence of thunder clouds on this day is said to favour good rainfall in the next 4 months. So anyone from anywhere in India can watch for thunder showers or cloudy weather on this day in their location to know whether there will be rains in their place of observation.

As far as Chennai is concerned, the corresponding day for 3rd day of Solar Garbottam that started from the evening of 31^st December 2015 till the evening of 1^st January 2016 was favourable for rainfall between 19^th July 2016 and 2^nd August 2016. The direction of rainfall would be from South and south west during this period. So far we have witnessed wet days during this period. For Chennai 29^th and 30^th July must have good rainfall if we go by the daily Garbottam in the corresponding dates of January 19^th and 20^th of 2016.

(For details of this chart read Garbottam chart for July  posted on 6^th Feb 2016)

If the Garbottam keeps up its promise of rainfall tomorrow, then the NE season will be good for Chennai. Details Garbottam charts for NE season will be posted soon.

Coming to the first feature called “Rohini Yoga” this concept was first communicated by Narada to Brihaspati from whom it was transferred to Garga, Parasara, Kashyapa and Maya.

Rohini yoga starts when Moon enters Rohini at 6-45 AM tomorrow (on 29^th July) and exits Rohini at 5-13 AM on 30^th July.

This period of roughly 22 and a half hours must be divided into 8 equal parts which comes to roughly 2 hours 50 minutes each. Each part relates to one fortnight each starting from the month of Aavani and ending in Karthigai. According to Rishi Garga, the observation is enough for the day time of Rohini. This day time must be divided into 4 parts with each part relating to the months from Aavani onwards. We can check both, but for commoners like us the day time observation only is possible.

Watch the wind.

During each part of the Rohini day one must watch the nature of wind and its direction. Winds must be breezy and not wild. Winds coming from North and north east favour good rainfall later. If the winds blow from a fixed direction, there will be rains in that direction benefiting the lands in that direction. In olden days a white cloth was tied on top of the poles to see the nature and direction of the wind.

Watch the cloud.

·       Formation of huge clouds, black in certain parts and white in certain parts and appearing to be twisted together.

·       Sky filled with black clouds everywhere with lightening

·       Clouds appearing like huge elephants and dark in colour.

·       Immediately before sun rise and after sun set, clouds must “appear in the colour of  blue lotus and with lightning, resemble the dark Vishnu in cloth of gold.” (Brihad samhita 24-18).

The part of the day when these features of wind and cloud are present will indicate good rainfall in the corresponding part of the next 4 months.

At night moon must be seen on the north east of Rohini star. This ensures good rainfall in the upcoming months. (Moon will be seen after mid night tomorrow at 2-20 AM).

Combination of the 2 features.

While Rohini Yoga does not foresee rainfall tomorrow but only cloudy weather accompanied with lightening and thunder, the Aadi-thithi-k-kuri of Rohini joining Dasami and Ekadasi comes with thunder showers at twilight, particularly evening twilight. It also comes with cloudy weather for 3 days – from the preceding to the succeeding day. The Solar Garbottam shows rainfall on Rohini day and the day after. Let us wait and watch.

PS: Behind all this, a lurking question in my mind is why the rainfall for the current period of Mercury – Venus closeness is not as expected to be abundant. The one feature that seems to mar rainfall for the whole of India is the transit of Saturn in Anusha (Anuradha) star. It is called Vayu nadi that shows windiness but no rains. In fact the winds will carry away the clouds resulting in failure of rainfall. Barring Saturn, other planets are not in afflicting positions. This feature of Saturn also must be borne in mind while predicting rainfall.

1	Vayu Nadi	Kri, Vishaka,  Anusha, Bharani	Saturn	Windy, No rains
2	Vayu Nadi	Ro, Swati, Jyesh, Aswini	Sun	Windy, Rains
3	Dahana Nadi	Mri, Chith, Moola, Revathy	Mars	Heat, Dry weather
4	Sowmya Nadi	Aru,  Hastha, P-dhada, U-Bhadra	Mercury	Windy, Less rains
5	Nirjala Nadi	Punar,  U.Phal, U-shada, P-Bhadra	Venus	Cloudy, But no rains
6	Jala Nadi	Pushya, P.Phal, Abhijit, Shatabhishak	Jupiter	Plentiful rainfall
7	Amirtha Nadi	Aslesha, Magha, Sravana, Dhanishta	Moon	Excessive rainfall

UPDATE after watching the day:-

Going by Rishi Garga's rule of watching the day time of Rohini into 4 parts, the first part was cool, cloudy, breezy and even accompanied with drizzles. Therefore rains can be expected in AavaNi. The Garbottam chart for AavaNi for Chennai also shows rains in AavaNi (Aug - Sep) 

The 2nd part of the day was hot and the air was still but towards the end it became breezy, cool with clouds covering the sun. This can be interpreted to mean that the last week of Purattasi would see rains. This also tallies with Solar Garbottam for that part of the year.

The 3rd part of the day was hot with no winds. However the end of the 3rd part of the day and the beginning of the 4 part of the day saw good formation of the clouds in south and east and some breezy weather. Towards sunset all clouds faded away and it was reported that it rained in the sea after nightfall. A few places in chennai received drizzles or mild showers at night. No thunderbolts were heard in my place of observation.

This can be interpreted to mean that there will be rains in the 2nd half of Aippasi and the 1st half of Karthigai. (November). The lesser intensity of clouds and breeze show that 2015 like disastrous rains can not be expected this year.