The Full Moon day of the month of Margazhi is a
momentous day, as Paavai nonbu (பாவை நோன்பு)
was
done on this day. Andal
started her Thiruppavai
by noting the day as that of Full Moon (மதி
நிறைந்த
நன்னாள்).
Today the 25th December of 2015 saw Full Moon at sunrise. If we were
to have followed the tradition of Paavai nonbu, we would have thronged the
river banks early in the morning to take a dip in the ice cold waters of the river.
The description of the scenario given in the Sangam
text of Paripaadal is exactly the same as how it is today – a land ravaged with
flood waters! The recent floods and heavy rains were not anomalies in this
season of the year, if we go by the description given in Paripaadal verse 11.
Heavy rains have left many places with pools of water and the sound of thunder
of the rainy season had just ceased (கார்வானம்
கனைக்கும்
அதிர்குரல்
நீங்க).
The sun is cool as it comes up after the rainy season that has made the land a
lake (ஞாயிறு காயா
நளி
பின்
மாரிக்
குளத்து).
It is for this reason the month of Margazhi was also known as “KuLam” which
means tank.
However there is another clause to be fulfilled for
initiating Paavai nonbu. The Full Moon must coincide with Arudra star, known as
Thiruvadhirai in Tamil. This coincidence generally happens in alternate years.
This year the Full Moon did not see sun rise in Arudra star. The evening Moon
in Prathamai coincided with Arudra which gave the famous name ‘Arudra Darshan’.
Tomorrow morning (26th Dec 2015) there is going to be special puja in
all Shiva temples in Tamilnadu for Lord Shiva, known as Arudra Abhishekam. The
Sangam age Paavai nonbu was the precursor to this Puja. Even though Full moon combining
with Arudra was the occasion to start the Nonbu, presence of Arudra is a
pre-condition for this Nonbu, even if Moon has crossed Full Moon phase.
So ideally, tomorrow morning, Tamils must start the
Paavai nonbu.
Why is it so important? My old article on how
Paavai nonbu was done gives details on how and when it was done and also
the reasons for doing it, as known from the Paripaadal verse. The outward
reason was praying for happy married life. But the core reason is welfare
oriented. It is to generate rainfall in the upcoming rainy season in the next
year. Andal expresses it in her Thiruppavai verses 3 and 4.
She says “TheenginRi naadellaam thingal mummaari
peythu” (தீங்கின்றி
நாடெல்லாம்
திங்கள்
மும்மாரி
பெய்து)
in the 3rd verse and describes the rains of the rainy season in the
4th verse as the benefits of Paavai nonbu. The link between Paavai
nonbu and rainfall which Andal highlights is also told by Varahamihira in Brihad Samhita. My article written in
2008 on the link between Paavai nonbu and rainfall can be read
here.
Rainfall is regarded as “Purva
Chitti” or prior wisdom. Whether it rains in a particular place or not
is determined 6 and a half months (or 195 days) before that date. Terrestrial, atmospheric
and heavenly (planetary) symptoms are noted right from the time of Margazhi to
know whether it will rain in a place 195 days after that. Of these symptoms,
terrestrial symptoms can be partially induced. That is where Paavai nonbu done
by young girls is introduced to create a terrestrial ambiance. These symptoms
were already written by me in the
1st part of the series on Rainfall prediction. I intend to write them again
in the upcoming articles as I expect the rain ravaged people of Tamilnadu to
show more interest in understanding rainfall prediction beforehand to be better
prepared in the next season.
For the kind of relevance for today’s Arudra star,
let me confine myself to the importance of this day.
Arudra is the star of Lord Shiva (Rudra). Sun is signified
by Rudra or Shiva. There is no need to emphasise the role of Sun in influencing
the climate and particularly the rainfall. The evaporation needed for cloud
formation is basically related to the Sun. The day or rather the time Sun
enters the Arudra star (this happens in Gemini or in the Aani month in Tamil)
is very important for rainfall prediction. That time is noted as “Arudra Pravesham” in almanacs. The day of the week, thithi,
yoga, karana, lagna, Moon’s position and the time (whether night or day) are
noted when Sun exactly enters Arudra in the month of Aani. That tells about the
amount of rainfall in the months following that (South west monsoon).
Today is the day approximately 6 and a half months
prior to that date in 2016, when Sun is just opposite to that position in Sagittarius
(Margazhi) now. Today, Moon is crossing Arudra
with Sun 180 degress away from Arudra. The prayers done to Lord Shiva on this
day is for an auspicious entry of the Sun in Arudra on June 21, 2016. Divine help is sought after as a first step to ensure
bountiful rainy season next year. The dance of Shiva on the banks of the
river on the Arudra day on Margazhi in olden, Sangam age Tamilnadu was to ensure
prosperous season for the people 6 and a half months later when Sun crosses
Arudra.
The upcoming year’s Arudra Pravesham is not all that
good and not very bad. Sun
enters Arudra on 21st June 2016 at 11 PM in the night. The day is Tuesday (not good), thithi is Krishna
Dwitheeya (good) Brahma yoga (not good), Taitula karana (good), Kumba lagna
(not good) and night time nearing mid night (good). At that time Moon will be
in Sagittarius (not good) but in the watery star Pooradam (Purvashada) (Very
good).
So the very first general prediction for next year’s
rainfall is that there will be rains at some places through storms. Arudra
pravesha on Tuesday lorded by Mars causes storms and destruction at some places
and dryness at other places. Usually Mars is associated with heat and destruction. The
upcoming year’s (Durmukhi) Meghadhipathi also happens to be Mars. Association of Mars does not give good rainfall; it causes destructive rain through storms at some places. Since storms are indicated, it can be surmised that North east Monsoon will yield good rains as that monsoon is associated with storms and depressions. More Bay storms can be expected.
The inference from this is that South west monsoon may not be helpful. The hailstorms associated with it in the beginning of the season can be expected. (These inferences must be checked and observed for a minimum of 5 to 9 years) to arrive at workable factors in rainfall prediction.)
The inference from this is that South west monsoon may not be helpful. The hailstorms associated with it in the beginning of the season can be expected. (These inferences must be checked and observed for a minimum of 5 to 9 years) to arrive at workable factors in rainfall prediction.)
Barring the pravesha lagna and Yoga, the thithi, karana and
night time entry are favourable for good rains in general. Moon in Purvashada
star is also very good for good rains.
This is the first level prediction for rainfall in
the next season. This must be combined with the kind of Megha for the upcoming year. Readers may recall my
article on 9 clouds in
the 5th part of my series on rainfall prediction. The upcoming year is
going to have “Neela Megham” It gives mixed
trend of heavy rainfall at one place and scanty rainfall at another. (In
contrast, the current year’s Vaaruna Megham gave plentiful rainfall to
Tamilnadu). This matches with Arudra Pravesham on Tuesday and Mars as
Meghadhipathi.
The general outlook for all the Meghas is given
below.
1. Tamo megha (தமோ மேகம்) – brings plentiful rains.
2.
Vaayu megha (வாயு மேகம்) –less rains. Famine conditions prevail.
3.
VaaruNa megha (வாருண மேகம்) – widespread and very heavy rains.
4.
Neela megha (நீல மேகம்) – mixed trend. Rains heavily at one place but
fails in another place.
5.
KaaLa megha (காள மேகம்) –Rains accompanied with storms.
6.
DroNa megha (துரோண மேகம்) – Torrential rains causing floods.
7.
Pushkala megha (புஷ்கல மேகம்) – Heavy rains.
8.
Sangavartha megha (சங்க வர்த்த மேகம்)- Less rains – more winds.
9.
Avarttha megha (ஆவர்த்த மேகம்)- scanty rainfall enough to wet the ground.
The general outlook for how to assess the Arudra
Pravesham (Sun’s entry into Arudra) is given below.
Star at the time of entry:- Star
means the star in which moon will be transiting at that time. Bharani, Arudra,
Aslesha, Magha, Chithra, Vishaka, Jyeshta are not favorable for good rainfall.
This year Purvashada will be the star at that time. This is
favourable.
Yoga at the time of entry:-
This can be checked from the almanac. Atiganda, Shoola, Ganda, Dhruvam,
Vyagatam, Vyatipadam, Brahmam, Aindra and Vydhruthi are not favourable. This
year Brahmam is the yoga at that time. It is not favourable.
Karana at the time of entry:-
Vishti, Sakuni, Chathushpaadam, Nagavam and Kimsthugnam are not favourable.
This year Thaithula karanam will be running at that time. It is favourable for
good rainfall.
The Lagna at the time of entry:-
This can be known from the astrology software. The lagnas Taurus, Cancer, Libra
and Pisces give good rainfall. Virgo gives stormy weather. Others are not
favourable for good rains.
The lagna must be checked for respective places. For
Chennai, it is Kumbha which is not good for rainfall.
The Kaala at the time of entry:- Day
or night time must be checked. If it is sunset or mid-night, there will be good
rains. If it is noon or day time there will be less rains. If it is night time,
there will be medium rainfall. This year the entry happens at night and just
before mid night. More than
medium rainfall is assured by this.
Location of Moon at the time of entry:- If
Moon is located at watery star, watery sign, watery lagna and watery navamsa,
there will be good rains.
Watery stars are Rohini, Mrigashira, Pushya, Uttara
phalguni, Purvashada, Uttrashada, Uttara Bhadrapada, Hastha, Anusha, Shravana,
Dhanishta, Shatabhishak and Revathy.
Watery signs are Cancer, Scorpio, Capricorn and
Pisces.
This year Moon will be Sagittarius (not good) but in
Purvashada (good for rains).
After this preliminary observation we must proceed
with “GarbOttam” or ‘pregnancy of clouds’ that
start with the entry of Sun in Purvashada star. It starts on 29th
December 2015 at 5 PM. I will continue to write on how to check Garbottam just
before 29th December.
(This short series on rainfall prediction for next
year is aimed at helping interested people to track the features to be written
in this series. As per this, observation
must be done on daily basis starting from 29th, the day of
Garbottam. This must be done for each region however small it may be. For instance,
within the city of Chennai, it may have rained in one place and not in others.
This rainfall prediction based on Vedic astrology as told by seers, must be
checked and tracked for any given place and the findings would hold good for
that given place only, though the overall picture is given by factors such as
Arudra Pravesham and Megha as told above. It is imperative that tracking of
meteorological features as per this method must happen in each and every place
and for all days to come till the rainy season starts.)
My articles in Tamil on Paavai nonbu published in Tamilhindu.com can be read here:
Part 1- http://www.tamilhindu.com/2010/01/paavai-nonbu-and-thai-neeraadal/
Part 1- http://www.tamilhindu.com/2010/01/paavai-nonbu-and-thai-neeraadal/
