Megha concept or the “Cloud” concept is one of the basic and simplest concepts
of rainfall astrology of the ancient Vedic sages. According to this concept, the
cloud formation undergoes a cycle of 9 years. The general level of rainfall or
lack of it in a year can be known from the type of cloud that prevails in a
year. The formation of 9 different types of clouds follows a pattern and
repeats every 9 years. Though the progenitor of this concept is not known, this
concept is part of predictive tools in Panchanga (almanacs) for the quantum of
rainfall and famine conditions. One of the texts that mentions the names of some
of these clouds is Meghaduta of Kalidasa.
Though I have written about these clouds in some of
my earlier articles, what prompted me to write about them here is a tweet by
astronaut Scott
Kelly from International Space Station on 18th November 2015. He
posted a stunning picture of the earth blanketed by clouds and expressed his
awe at the spectacle. That was the time rains picked up in Chennai and
continued relentlessly only to make a record of heavy rainfall of the century.
(Click the image)
This tweet sounded like he witnessed the entire
earth covered with clouds all around. I saved this tweet along with the
news report, wondering whether this cloud cover has any link to the Megha
of year 2015.
The Megha or cloud of 2015-16 (the year is based on
Hindu New year starting in Chithrai and ending in Panguni – from Mid April to
next Mid April) is VaaruNa
Megha – the cloud of the oceans. It is supposed to give heavy rains from clouds formed in the South west.
A quick reading of the 9 clouds and the years of
these clouds are given below to understand the subsequent ideas that I am going
to write.
1.
Tamo megha (தமோ மேகம்) – brings plentiful rains.
2.
Vaayu megha (வாயு மேகம்) –less rains. Famine conditions prevail.
3.
VaaruNa megha (வாருண மேகம்) – widespread and very heavy rains.
4.
Neela megha (நீல மேகம்) – mixed trend. Rains heavily at one place but
fails in another place.
5.
KaaLa megha (காள மேகம்) –Rains accompanied with storms.
6.
DroNa megha (துரோண மேகம்) – Torrential rains causing floods.
7.
Pushkala megha (புஷ்கல மேகம்) – Heavy rains.
8.
Sangavartha megha (சங்க வர்த்த மேகம்)- Less rains – more winds.
9.
Avarttha megha (ஆவர்த்த மேகம்)- scanty rainfall enough to wet the ground.
Three rounds of years for these clouds are shown in
the table below.
1
|
Tamo Megha
|
Good rains
|
1995-96
|
2004-06
|
2013-14
|
2
|
Vaayu Megha
|
Less rains
|
1996-97
|
2005-06
|
2014-15
|
3
|
Vaaruna Megha
|
Heavy rains
|
1997-98
|
2006-07
|
2015-16
|
4
|
Neela Megha
|
Mixed trend
|
1998-99
|
2007-08
|
2016-17
|
5
|
KaaLa Megha
|
Rains from storms
|
1999-2000
|
2008-09
|
2017-18
|
6
|
DroNa Megha
|
Rains causing floods
|
2000-01
|
2009-10
|
2018-19
|
7
|
Pushkala Megha
|
Heavy rains
|
2001-02
|
2010-11
|
2019-20
|
8
|
Sangavartha Megha
|
Less rains
|
2002-03
|
2011-12
|
2020-21
|
9
|
Avartha Megha
|
Scanty rains
|
2003-04
|
2012-13
|
2021-22
|
The present year 2015- 16 has VaaruNa Megha. It had
given heavy rains to Tamilnadu during the time astronaut Kelly had observed the
cloud cover around the earth. Rains are continuing in the southern hemisphere at
present. Does VaaruNa Megha cause precipitation induced basically by the
oceans. Though oceans always play a big role in precipitation and cloud
formation, why the cloud of this particular year has been given the name
VaaruNa Megha?
With this question nagging me at the back of my mind
ever since I saw the cloud picture of Scott Kelly, I was searching for weather
analysis reports for November 2015 and landed at this site of the USA.
It says that there was record warmth in the major ocean basins. The list almost
covers all the oceans of the earth. It says,
“In other major ocean basins, parts of
the western North Atlantic, the Barents Sea in the Arctic, and much of the
Indian Ocean were record warm. The Indian Ocean dipole (IOD)
Index has been positive since early 2014 and appears to have peaked in early
(Southern Hemisphere) spring as the strongest positive IOD since 2006. The
Index declined sharply in November, though still remained positive.”
It gives an important information on Indian Ocean
Dipole (IOD) as being positive in 2015 and also in 2006. This is amazing as
both 2006 and 2015 are VaaruNa Megha years. The earlier year of VaaruNa Megha
was 1997-98 and that year also saw significant IOD according the Wikipedia article
on IOD! This
article says,
“A significant positive IOD occurred in 1997–8,
with another in 2006.”
“A positive phase sees greater-than-average
sea-surface temperatures and greater precipitation in the western Indian Ocean
region, with a corresponding cooling of waters in the eastern Indian Ocean.”
The VaaruNa Megha is characterised as emerging from the south west. The positive IOD coincides with warmer
Indian Ocean in the western part of it giving
rise to higher precipitation to Indian sub-continent.
There had been an overall hike in temperature
globally for the month of November in 2015. This had contributed to the “Blanket”
of cloud around the earth as seen from the ISS by Kelly.
previous VaaruNa Megha occurred in 1988-89. This
page on All India rainfall says that 1988 was a year of floods. The IOD
value of 1988 is not known.(The concept of IOD was formed only in 1999). But what is known from the wiki article on IOD
is that the phenomenon of IOD had existed since Holocene.
This information is crucial for me as it lends
credence to the long history of observational astrology of rainfall. The
oscillating IOD had been observed by the ancient seers who had also observed (hitherto
unknown) 8 other phenomena of the cloud formation and encapsulated them into 9
Megha concept.
As per this concept, the next occurrence of VaaruNa
Megha will be in 2024-25. Time will tell whether the Indian Ocean will keep its
date with positive IOD in that year.
Update based on the
IOD data given in the link shared by Mr
Srikanth in the comment section.
I noted down the years with positive IOD given until
the year 1999 and highlighted them in yellow in the table below for easy reference
to the type of Megha and the rainfall indicated by that. The highlight in green
refers to the positive IOD years given in the Wiki article on IOD.
|
1
|
Tamo Megha
|
Good rains
|
1959-60
|
1968-69
|
1977-78
|
1986-87
|
|
2
|
Vaayu Megha
|
Less rains
|
1960-61
|
1969-70
|
1978-79
|
1987-88
|
|
3
|
Vaaruna Megha
|
Heavy rains
|
1961-62
|
1970-71
|
1979-80
|
1988-89
|
|
4
|
Neela Megha
|
Mixed trend
|
1962-63
|
1971-72
|
1980-81
|
1989-90
|
|
5
|
KaaLa Megha
|
Rains from storms
|
1963-64
|
1972-73
|
1981-82
|
1990-91
|
|
6
|
DroNa Megha
|
Rains causing floods.
|
1964-65
|
1973-74
|
1982-83
|
1991-92
|
|
7
|
Pushkala Megha
|
Heavy rains
|
1965-66
|
1974-75
|
1983-84
|
1992-93
|
|
8
|
Sangavartha Megha
|
Less rains
|
1966-67
|
1975-76
|
1984-85
|
1993-94
|
|
9
|
Avartha Megha
|
Scanty rains
|
1967-68
|
1976-77
|
1985-86
|
1994-95
|
|
1
|
Tamo Megha
|
Good rains
|
1995-96
|
2004-05
|
2013-14
|
|
2
|
Vaayu Megha
|
Less rains
|
1996-97
|
2005-06
|
2014-15
|
|
3
|
Vaaruna Megha
|
Heavy rains
|
1997-98
|
2006-07
|
2015-16
|
|
4
|
Neela Megha
|
Mixed trend
|
1998-99
|
2007-08
|
2016-17
|
|
5
|
KaaLa Megha
|
Rains from storms
|
1999-2000
|
2008-09
|
2017-18
|
|
6
|
DroNa Megha
|
Rains causing floods
|
2000-01
|
2009-10
|
2018-19
|
|
7
|
Pushkala Megha
|
Heavy rains
|
2001-02
|
2010-11
|
2019-20
|
|
8
|
Sangavartha Megha
|
Less rains
|
2002-03
|
2011-12
|
2020-21
|
|
9
|
Avartha Megha
|
Scanty rains
|
2003-04
|
2012-13
|
2021-22
|
Years 1970-71 and 1979-80 did not have positive IOD
despite being VaaruNa Megha years. So I checked it for the planetary combinations.
It was a failure combination with Mars and Saturn playing spoilsport with Budha
– Shukra Sameepyam and there was absence of rainfall yogas (Ativrishti)
The other surprise is 1967-68 and 1994-95. They were
the years of Avartha Megha that is associated with scanty rainfall. When I searched
the web for Monsoon season of 1994-95, I came across this
article on anomaly in 1994 monsoon. There were sudden good rains in the
Northwest of India during the SW season which was not predicted in any meteorological
model. This view concurs with Avartha Megha. But it had rained more than normal
in July and between June and August. When I checked the planetary combinations,
I found the presence of the foremost ativrishti yoga of Saturn, Mars and Sun in
alternate signs at that time. This combination existed when Chennai was lashed
with rains. This combination existed whenever heavy rains occurred.
Therefore the inference from the above is that
Vaaruna Megha has a success rate of 70% in giving good rains (5/7 times in the last 63
years, it had given good rains). In the absence of any rainfall yoga (planetary
combinations), VaaruNa Megha fails to give good rains.
Tamo Megha, Neela Megha, Kala Megha and Drona Megha
had been successful as they are associated with good rainfall. If the IOD
values are positive and the current Megha is any one of these or Vaaruna Megha,
it would ensure good rains.
Avartha Megha giving rains is a surprise. But in the
last 3 decades, Avartha Megha was not associated with positive IOD. In the years
when it had given good rains, planetary combinations were good at the time of arrival
of monsoon.
