DMK ate up the votes from Vijaykanth – PWF alliance (Poll analysis 2016)

The biggest surprise for many in the State is how the DMK- Congress combine managed to bag 97 seats together (DMK = 89, Cong = 8) while their vote share not long ago was woefully less that saw a nil score in 2014 elections. 2014 election was a fragmented one like 2016 elections. In 2014, the addition of main allies PMK and DMDK with the BJP could make 18.5% that could fetch them just 2 seats. The learning from that was when the anti ADMK votes divide among other / many parties which otherwise would have gone to the DMK, it is advantageous for the AIADMK.

Based on this calculation, Jayalalithaa risked to go alone this time too. Six smaller parties were in the fray together on one side having a total vote share of 15% at the most. On the other side DMK was with the Congress which had a much beleaguered vote share. After GK Vasan had come out of the Congress, even Congress leaders were not confident of winning this election. Popular example is P. Chidambaram going into oblivion.

Even the DMK was at its worst nightmare when it failed to rope in Vijaykanth to its side. It was thought at that time that the DMK has half lost the elections. By this split, it meant that the anti AIADMK votes would get split between DMK combine and the 3^rd Front.

But what does the actual polling show? Take a look at the vote share data from the Election Commission.

AIADMK had bagged 40.8% whereas it was 38.4% in 2011 and 44.3% in 2014.

The DMK got 31.6% now compared to 26.8% in 2014 and 22.4% in 2011.

In earlier elections too, the DMK’s own vote share had not exceeded 26%. Even in 2006 when for the first time freebie culture was introduced by the DMK to rope in votes, it could get only 26.46 % votes and could form a minority Government with the outside support of the Congress. Except 1996 when the DMK got 42% votes owing to negative image of Jayalalithaa due to corruption and pompous marriage of her foster son, the DMK could not get more than 26% on an average at other elections. So 26% was considered to be its solid support base.

Based on this calculation, in the absence of any election issue and absence of anti-incumbency, the DMK could not have touched the present 31.6%, but it had. Similarly the Congress gaining 6% vote share from its previous 4.3% in 2014 is a surprise. After 2014 a considerable chunk of Congressmen have left along with GK Vasan. But that has not dented the Congress vote share. Instead the Congress managed to increase it to 6%.

So from where has come this addition to the DMK- Congress kitty?

It may be said that the attrition has come from the AIADMK. From 44.3% in 2014, AIADMK share has come down to 40.8%. But then AIADMK’s individual share in 2011 was only 38.4%. At that time the DMDK and others contributed to make her combine score 51.9% vote share that wiped out the DMK- Congress combine of 39.5%.

The present elections show that AIADMK’s popularity is not on the wane. In 2014 the additional 4% was due to the projected prospect of Jayalalithaa becoming the PM candidate. In the absence of any hype she could get 40%.

But from where the DMK could increase its vote share from 26% to 31.6%?

A look at the vote share of the 3^rd Front explains the increase.

A comparison of the vote share of the 3^rd front parties between 2011 and 2016 reveals what had happened in this election.

Parties	2011	2016
DMDK (Vijaykanth)	7.9%	2.4%
VCK  (Thiruma)	1.5%	0.8%
MDMK (Vaiko)	-	0.9%
Communists (2 together)	4.4%	1.5%
Vasan (Congress faction)	From Congress share of 9.3%	0.5%

All these parties together had polled only 25 lakh votes in 2016, whereas in 2006 when Vijaykanth started his party and contested alone his party polled 30 lakh votes. It was a big fall from 2006 to 2016.

From the proven vote share in 2011 of the 4  parties (DMDK, VCK, MDMK and the Communists) of 13.8%, they had only polled 5.7 % now.  So 8.1 % of vote share had fled from them. That had not come to the AIADMK but gone to the DMK combine and a smaller fraction to parties like Naam Thamizhar.

Similarly GK Vasan could not bring to him any solid share from the parent Congress party.

Initially when the 3^rd Front was formed, the vote share seemed to be with them intact. Perhaps after  Vijaykanth joined them and completely exposed his limitations, the voters seemed to have drifted away. These voters were all the time brainwashed against Jayalalithaa. Though the 3^rd Front wanted a non- DMK and a non- AIADMK Government in power, in action it means unseating Jayalalaithaa. So they looked for venues to vote against Jayalalithaa, irrespective of how bad the venue (DMK) happens to be.

In other words, the anti AIADMK votes did not get split as expected, to the fragmented parties. Instead they had congregated at the DMK- Congress combine and taken on the AIADMK. The pathetic show by the 3^rd Front leaders including Vaiko in abstaining from the contest had resulted in the flight of voters to the DMK, who all had the one point agenda of unseating Jayalalithaa.

In the case of GK Vasan’s party, it is possible that initially a considerable chunk of the congress vote share could have come with him. But when he aligned with the 3^rd Front, many leaders left him to join the parent Congress party. By that way the vote share had stayed with the Congress.

The seats won by the DMK- Congress in the Delta districts, contrary the expectation that these regions would not vote for the DMK thanks to the Gail project, is perhaps due to the last minute disillusion of the Congress supporters upon Vasan joining the 3^rd Front.

If only he had aligned with AIADMK, the delta districts could have voted for AIADMK- Vasan combine. A major part of Congress votes would have stayed with him. This would have resulted in considerable reduction in the Congress vote share. Congress would have drawn a blank in that scenario. This would also mean that Congress (INC) headed by Sonia would be weakened forever in Tamilnadu and DMK could never find a useful ally in the Congress. That opportunity has been lost forever, it seems.

A shortfall in the Congress kitty means shortfall in the overall vote share of the DMK.

This is gives 2 lessons for  Jayalalithaa.

She must have aligned with Vasan. It was rumoured then that she was ready to give him 15 seats on the condition that he must contest in her ‘Two leaves’ symbol. That was a prestige issue for Vasan, but he must have agreed to it on the reasoning that he could not get his party’s old symbol. Jayalalithaa has every reason to be apprehensive about a new symbol, for  there was no time for Vasan to popularise the new symbol. Winning is most important than anything else. So Vasan must have aligned with her and made a roaring win. Instead he chose a new symbol which led Jayalalithaa to keep away from him.

On her part Jayalalithaa must have gone for a compromise to reduce the presence of INC in Tamilnadu. It is like – cut the allies of your enemy to disarm them. DMK minus Congress would means reduced the vote share and therefore the seat share. By helping Vasan gain a base, the national Congress party can be permanently reduced to a non-player in Tamilnadu. Sometimes statesmanship calls for some give and give policy

The 2^nd lesson is how well a scenario may be 3 months before the elections, for the kind of comical show that Vijaykanth put up, thereby reducing credibility of the 3^rd Front,  one must expect that anything could go awry with them at the last minute. Jayalalithaa, a seasoned politician must have anticipated the dissipation of the Front anytime before the elections and even the possible attrition of votes from the 3^rd Front. Who will be benefited by that attrition? Certainly not the AIADMK.

During a last couple of weeks before the elections, the Jaya TV put up propaganda material on the funny ways of Vijaykanth and asked should one vote for him. Yes, people don’t want to vote for him, but to who else they must vote? Vijaykanth’s mantra is anti- Jayalalaithaa. We can’t expect his supporters to vote for AIADMK. They would go after the DMK as that was in their mind till the time Vijaykanth aligned with the 3^rd Front.

Though the AIADMK had won the elections now, the fact remains that the DMK has gained a strong footing. The DMK too must not gloat over the vote share because it is only a default vote. Where these default voters would turn in future is something only Time will tell.

I think Jayalalithaa can make an effort to bring them back to her side.

Their grouses are simple and trivial.

They hate her because they think she is arrogant, she makes men bend (prostrating before her – this is something Vijaykanth kept repeating as a case of men being made slaves), she doesn’t meet people and party men etc.

Another issue planted in their mind is corruption. With no major corruption charges against her Government, her expected victory in the DA case would boost up her image as a clean person. That would give her an opportunity to make an impression on her haters.

Let Jayalalithaa take care of the trivial issues alone. It would take the steam out of the hate- Jayalalithaa mentality of very many average people.