Day -1 of Garbottam and Arudra Pravesham.

First day of Garbottam ended around 5 PM  on 30^th December 2015.

I thought of writing down the observation of Garbottam days and check with corresponding days of future along with other astrological factors to arrive at a better understanding of prediction of rainfall.

The following was my observation done at a place in the suburb of Chennai. The impact is valid from 21^st June to 5^th July 2016.

The 5 factors

(1) Wind:- Still air at the time of beginning of Garbottam at 5 PM on 29^th Dec, 2015. Cool breeze was felt in the morning. Not very windy in general.

Result:- Not a strong factor for rainfall from 21^st June to 5^th July in this place of observation. However the cool breeze in the morning shows scattered rain or drizzles at night in that period.

(2) Rain:- Nil.

Result:- Does not indicate rains in the said period.

(3) Lightening:- Nil.

Result:-  Does not indicate rains in the said period.

(4) Thunder:- Nil.

Result:- Does not indicate rains in the said period.

(5) Clouds:- Cloudless at the beginning of Garbottam. Small groups of scattered clouds till midnight. No cloud formation during the day time too.

Result:- Does not indicate rains in the said period.

Interpretation:-

If all the 5 factors are present, heavy rainfall would occur in the said period. But only one feature was present in lesser magnitude. This works out to less than one third of the rainfall if we reduce the optimum rainfall by a quarter for the absence of each factor. We have to see whether this works out to 30% or less of the usual rainfall for this period.

3-some features:-

(1) Terrestrial :- Good.

(2) Atmospheric :- Of the 12 features noted in my blog on Garbottam, (1) gentle breeze was there in the morning. (2) Sun encircled with bright halo, but no halo around Moon.

(3) Planetary:- (1) Planets and stars appeared as clear, bright discs. Arudra (Betelgeuse) was blood red which was its original colour. (2) Sun was red at sun set. (3) Except Jupiter all the other planets were in Southern declinations.

Interpretation:-

Except red Sun and clear stars, other features were absent. Planets in southern declination are not good indicators for rainfall. Less than average rainfall for the said period in the place of observation is indicated.

Day 1 of Garbottam indicates Arudra Pravesham. Therefore it is imperative to check the nature of Arudra Pravesham.

Arudra Pravesham is the entry of the Sun in Arudra star in the next season (2016). This entry is an important indicator for general rainfall nature of the season. The day of the entry, the thithi, yoga and karana at that time, the lagna of the entry time, the kala (day or night) and the location of the moon at that time are noted to judge the nature of the rainfall season that comes after the entry. The details of how to see them are given in my blog on solar ingress.

The prediction based on Arudra Pravesham is important as it was noted in my blogs earlier. In one of my earlier blogs, I commented about the nature of Arudra Pravesham of Jaya varushm for the Monsoon season of 2014. It is reproduced below.

  

The Arudra Pravesha on 22^nd June 2014, 10-35 AM happened in the fiery Leo lagna with Moon in fiery sign. The yoga was unfavourable Atiganda. The time of the day also was unfavourable as it was day time. Though other factors were favourable, the important ones namely lagna, moon sign and kaala were unfavourable and were associated with heat. Though the year Megha was Vaayu and Raja and Mantri (of the Nava nayaks of Solar ingress in Mesha) were favourable, the Arudra Pravesha lagna and other features being unfavourable, there was a kind of tug of war between the Mesha ingress features and Arudra ingress features. Based on other features, I went with indicators of Arudra ingress and expected lack of rains.

That year (2014) indeed experienced less rainfall. The IMD report confirmed this. The abstract of it is reproduced below.

Source :- http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/monsoon_main.php

The report refers to ‘border line El Nino’ for this deficient rainfall. The El Nino has an explanation in astrology is what I wish to state.

The deficit of 2014 season can be explained by other astrological factors too, which I would do later. (In fact I am working on all the reports of IMD in its website, to arrive at a better understanding from astrological view point.)

For the upcoming season, the Arudra Pravesham is discussed below.

 The upcoming year’s Arudra Pravesham is not all that good and not very bad. Sun enters Arudra on 21^st June 2016 at 11 PM in the night.  

The day is Tuesday (not good)

The thithi is Krishna Dwitheeya (good)
The nakshatra is Purvashada (very good)

The Yoga is Brahma yoga (not good)

The Karana is Taitula karana (good)

The lagna is  Kumba lagna (not good)

The Kala is and night time nearing mid night (good).

At that time Moon will be in Sagittarius (not good) but in the watery star Pooradam (Purvashada) (Very good).

Moon’s position, the star Purvashada and kaala (night time) are powerful enough to cause good rains, though the Meghadhipathi  (among Nava nayakas) is Mars and the day of entry is Mars. This ensures above normal rainfall for the whole season of 2016 upto December.

Though, the Arudra Pravesham period may not experience good rains in my place of observation, it would rain on the path of the SW monsoon by more than average.

In this context, the Megha is Neela Megha which gives mixed rainfall – with more rains in one place and deficient rains in another. Garbottam observation would indicate this trend in different places.

Another important feature we must note is the position of planets at the time of Arudra Pravesham and the rainy season in general. The study of IMD reports gives a number of clues on what to look for and how the rainfall yogas (Anavrishti and Ativrishti) play a role. I will write them one by one in future blogs.

For the current topic, on the day of Arudra Pravesha in 2016, Venus is conjunct with Sun and is combust. Venus is forward to Sun and Mercury is behind the Sun. Venus and Sun will be in Arudra while Moon will be opposite to them in Pooradam. This is ideal for good rainfall.

Generally Venus in combustion causes good rainfall. The combustion starts 10 degrees before Sun and ends at 10 degrees after Venus crosses the Sun. On April 29^th 2016, Venus enters into combustion while Mercury is retrograde in the front of Sun. All the three, Sun, Venus and Mercury are in the same sign which is Aries. This gives thunderstorms or pre-monsoon rains. But as the planets progress, the combustion continues into Taurus when Sun- Venus come opposite to Saturn and Mars in Scorpio. Though these two malefics in a watery sign is good for rainfall, their opposition to monsoon causing Venus and Mercury at the time of start of Monsoon is not good. So I foresee a delayed onset of SW monsoon.

Anyway the combustion of Venus continues at the time Arudra Ingress of the Sun. At that time opposition from Saturn and Mars is over. So the Arudra Pravesham on 21^st June must come with good progress of the SW monsoon. 

The end of combustion of Venus is also a factor in determining the rainfall.

In this scheme, the sky is divided into 6 Mandalas of stars and the re-emergence of Venus in a Mandala determines the rainfall. (see at the end of the article)

On July 10^th 2016, Venus re-emerges from combustion in the 2^nd Mandala (Poosam). This gives less than average rainfall.

So the early pointers are for ups and downs in rainfall in the early part of SW monsoon season, though the extent of the rainfall is such that it is mixed, more at one place and less at another. In my place, the 1^st day of Garbottam shows that it will be scanty atleast until 5^th July.

Let me observe the 2^nd day of Garbottam and look at other astrological features.

*******

The 6 Mandalas of the sky for the re-emergence of Venus after combustion are as follows:

1^st Mandala  = Bharani, Krittikai, Rohini, Mrigashirsham (4 stars)

2^nd Mandala =  Arudra, Punarvasu, Poosam, Aslesha (next 4 stars)

3^rd Mandala = Magha, Purva phalguni, Uttara Phalguni, Hastham, Chittrai (next 5 stars)

4^th Mandala = Swathi, Vishaka, Anusha (next 3 stars)

5^th Mandala = Jyeshta, Moola, Purvashada, Uttara shada, Sravana, (next 5 stars)

6^th Mandala = Dhanishta or Avittam, Shathabhishak or Sadhayam, Purva bhadrapada, Uttara Bhadrapada, Revathy, Ashwini (next 6 stars).

If Venus re-emerges after combustion in the 1^st and 2^nd Mandala, rains will be below average.

If it re-emerges after combustion in the 3^rd and 5^th Mandala, there will be little rain and famine conditions will prevail.

If it re-emerges after combustion in the 4^th and 6^th Mandala, there will be copious rains.

Garbottam begins at 5 PM on 29th December 2015.

Rainfall prediction forms a voluminous part of Mundane astrology followed in India since time immemorial. In fact big names such as Rishis  Kashyapa, Parashara, Garga and  Vatsa  are associated with prediction of rainfall. Their views on long range prediction of climate and also weather patterns with specific reference to rainfall are given in 8 chapters in the 2000 year old book called Brihad Samhita written by Varahamihira. Any reader of those chapters would be surprised at the depth of the details such as the time, duration, place, extent, quantity and quality of rainfall that can possibly be detected as early as 6 months before the rains occur. These chapters deserve a deeper study and application so as to test them in the current times and if successful to incorporate them in rainfall prediction models.

The earliest prediction model for next year’s monsoon is known as “Garbottam” which means ‘Fetus formation’ or ‘nature of pregnancy’. This is also known as ‘pregnancy of clouds’. This is observed on the month of Margazhi, soon after the rainfall of the previous season is over. At the time the Sun enters the star Pooradam (Purvashada) in then sign of Sagittarius in Margazhi, it is said that the conditions for the next season’s rainfall start taking shape. This goes on for nearly 14 days when the Sun will be crossing the star Pooradam. This period is known as Garbottam period or pregnancy period. One can find the beginning and end of this period mentioned in the almanacs (Panchangam). 

This year’s Garbottam starts on 29^th December 2015 at 5 PM and ends on 11^th January 2016 at 6.56 PM.

During this period 5 types of meteorological factors are observed day and night at 3 levels of surroundings.

The 5 factors are :-

1.      Winds (whether gentle breeze like or cool or heavy or dusty)

2.      Rain  (whether it rains and if it rains whether it is heavy or it drizzles.)

3.      Lightening (Whether lightening occurs or not, also whether rainbow appears or not)

4.      Roar of thunder (whether low, rumbling noise of thunder is heard or heavy sound of thunder is heard)

5.      Appearance of clouds (whether sky is overcast and the shape of the clouds)

The three-some observation is:-

1.      Terrestrial              

2.      Atmospheric

3.      Planetary.

The observation is applicable for the place of the observer. In olden days every village had astrologers doing that observation. Today meteorology applies to vast regions, but this ancient Indian method helps to tell on day to day basis whether a particular locality would get rains or not. For instance, though rain clouds may hover over Chennai, it need not give rain at all places in Chennai. It may have rained say, in Vadapalani  but not in Mylapore. Such differences within short distances can be predicted by this method. For this, the observer must be available in that particular place continuously at least from Margazhi to Panguni and on specific days at other months.

The basic rationale of this method of Garbottam is that the kind of meteorological features present in a particular place is related to rainfall or no rainfall that would occur in that place 195 days later! In other words, the meteorological conditions seen at any place at a particular time in space is related to rainfall or no-rain fall at the same place when earth has moved to 180 degrees away from that initial place. This can be shown by a diagram as follows:

The meteorological features present (shown as smaller circles) on day 1 at a particular place is related to the meteorological features seen after 195 days when the place is just opposite to the location on day 1.

For calculation of the day, one must be aware of the waxing and waning phase of the Moon and the days in each phase. Suppose favourable meteorological features (pregnancy features) are noticed in the waxing period of Margazhi, the rainfall would occur in the waning period 6 months later, that is, in the month of Vaikasi. The meteorological features that hovered above Chennai in the waning period of Chitthirai resulted in the century’s highest rainfall in the waxing period of Karthigai in the November - December this year.

In this model, if favourable features are observed at day time, rainfall would occur at night. If the features are noticed in the east, the rain clouds would come from the west and vice versa. If features are noticed at morning twilight, rainfall would occur at evening twilight. Like this the opposites must be ascertained for prediction.

Garbottam calculation:-

The Garbottam days have a slightly different calculation.
The rationale is that each day of the Garbottam in Pooradam in Sagittarius would have a bearing for the duration of sun's stay in every star starting from Arudra (Thrivadhirai) in the month of Aani / Gemini  in the next year. This goes upto Moola in next Margazhi.

The stars mentioned below indicate the 14 day transit of Sun in that star in the next year when rainy season will be on. Eg 1^st day of Garbottam will have an effect on 13 to 14 days of sun's transit in Thiruvadhirai. The corresponding date of Garbottam as of now is given following the day and the corresponding rainfall starting date for the year 2016 is given in brackets.

1^st day of Garbottam = 29 Dec evening (5 PM ) to 30 Dec evening- this  corresponds to rainfall (or no rainfall) features when Sun begins transit of Arudra ( 21^st June 2016)

2^nd day- 30 Dec- 31 Dec  – Punarpoosam (5^th July 2016)

3^rd day – 31 Dec – 1 Jan – Poosam (19^th July 2016)

4^th day - 1 Jan – 2 Jan – Ayilyam (2^nd August 2016)

5^th day – 2 Jan – 3 Jan – Magam (16^th August 2016)

6^th day – 3 Jan – 4 Jan  – Purva phalguni (Pooram) (30^th August 2016)

7^th day - 4 Jan – 5 Jan – Uttara Phalguni (Uttaram) (13^th September 2016)

8^th day 5 - Jan – 6 Jan – Hastha (26^th September 2016)

9^th day  - 6 Jan – 7 Jan – Chithra (10^th October 2016)

10^th day  - 7 Jan – 8 Jan – Swati (23^rd October 2016)

11^th day – 8 Jan – 9 Jan – Vishaka (6^th November 2016)

12^th day – 9 Jan – 10 Jan – Anuradha (Anusham) (19^th November 2016)

13^th day - 10 Jan -11 Jan – Jyeshta (Kettai) (2^nd December 2016)

{Note: In my previous article on general predictions for 2016 season, I noted that planetary combination for rainfall that occurred in November- December 2015 reappears in the same period in 2016 also. The dates of heavy rainfall are likely to be 18, 19 and 20 November 2016. This corresponds to the 11^th and 12^th day of Garbottam. A keen observation on these days would confirm this prospect. Rainfall astrology has layers of confirmation or rejection like this as a matter of fine-tuning the prediction.}

The interpretation is as follows:

 If on the 1^st day of Garbottam, there are dark clouds all over the sky and sun is hidden behind, it will rain here and there and every now and then in the 14 day period when Sun will be transiting Arudra (in Gemini) (starting from 21^st June 2016).

Similarly if on the 2^nd  day of Garbottam, there are dark clouds all over the sky and sun is hidden behind, it will rain here and there and every now and then in the 14 day period when Sun will be transiting Punarvasu star (in Gemini and Cancer) (starting from 15^th July 2016).

Similarly on the 3^rd  day of Garbottam, there are dark clouds all over the sky and sun is hidden behind, it will rain here and there and every now and then in the 14 day period when Sun will be transiting Poosam or Pushya star (in Cancer). (Staring from 19^th July 2016)

Like this Sun's transit in subsequent stars are noted for periods of rainfall. If it rains when Sun enters a star, it will rain throughout the period of Sun’s transit in that star.

Now the features to be observed:-

Note:- Applicable on day to day basis during Garbottam period and also after that. The prediction is for the corresponding day later, on the 195^th day..

1.      Winds:-

Gentle and agreeable wind = Good rainfall

Cool breeze from North and Northeast = good rainfall.

Heavy winds = rain clouds would gather but be shattered

Dust storm = No rains

2.      Rain

In Margazhi, usually there will be no rains. If it rains heavily (during Garbottam), rainfall on the corresponding day would be affected. A gentle rain or drizzle would give good rainfall on the corresponding day after 6 and a half months.

3.      Lightening

Lightening = good rainfall

Rainbow in the morning or evening = good rainfall

4.      Roar of thunder

Low, rumbling roar of thunder = good rainfall

Heavy sounding thunder = rain clouds would shatter away.

5.      Clouds

Sky overcast with huge, bright, dense clouds = good rainfall

Needle shaped clouds or sword shaped clouds = good rainfall

Blood red clouds = good rainfall.

Further Interpretation:-

If one any day in the months from Margazhi to Panguni all the above 5 factors are present, the quantity of the subsequent rainfall will be 1 Drona. (Drona is equal to 200 phalas. Quantification in today's terms is not known. Perhaps the rainfall on those days can be recorded and cross checked with other days when similar conditions prevailed.)

Reduce the quantity by quarter for the absence of every one factor.

Three-some observation.

1.      Terrestrial

2.      Atmospheric

3.      Planetary.

(I) Terrestrial factors to be observed.

1.      Sweet chirpings of birds.

2.      Animals moving in relaxed mood and making pleasant sounds

3.      Kids making sweet sounds and playing

4.      Trees with sprouts

5.    Trees grow without diseases.

(II) Atmospheric factors to be observed.

1.      Clouds resembling pearl or silver color

2.      Clouds in the shape of aquatic animal, huge and dense.

3.      These clouds scorched by bright sun light

4.      Gentle breeze

5.      Sun and the Moon encircled by glossy, bright and thick halo.

6.      Sky filled with bulky clouds or smooth needle like clouds (cirrus), or in the shape of sword.

7.      Clouds appearing in red or blue tint.

8.      Pleasant twilights in morning and evening.

9.      Light rumbling thunder

10.  Rainbow in the lower horizon.

11.  Red glow in the horizon at dawn and sun set. This must be seen only in Margashira and Pushya months. (Solar months also)

12.  Clouds with halos

{Note:- Presence of 3 and 4 features together of the above category would result in torrential rain on the 195^th day)

III) Planetary factors to be observed in the 4 month period.

Good for conception of rainfall

 - Planets appearing with clear and bright disc at night

-  Planets moving in Northern declinations

- Moon and stars must appear white 

Planetary features marring conception of rainfall.

·         Eclipses ( mar rainfall later on the corresponding day)

·         Planetary war (where planets are close together in such a way one planet will be crossing another.) ( mars rainfall for several days in the corresponding period.)

{Note:- During the current Garbottam period, on the 8^th and 9^th of January (10, 11^th and 12^th day of Garbottam), Saturn and Venus are conjunct within one degree.  This is the case of planetary war which mars rainfall in the corresponding period in November. Earlier we noted 11^th and 12^th day of Garbottam as having good planetary combination for rainfall in on November 18, 19 and 20^th of 2016. We must watch how this happens (on 18^th November 2016) and which feature is more powerful.

Even after Garbottam is over by 11^th January 2016, we must continue the observation as follows:

 Month-wise observation for good rainfall after 195 days:

In Margazhi –

·         red sun in the morning and evening, 

 -    sky in red colour before sunrise and after sunset.

·         clouds surrounded by halos,

·         very cold.

In Thai -

• ·         red sun in the morning and evening,

• ·         clouds surrounded by halos,

• ·          excessive snowfall.

In Maasi –

·         strong wind,

·         sun and moon must be dimmed by clouds or snowfall at sun rise and sun set,

·         fog, mist, excessive cold

-     

In Panguni –

• ·         rough and violent storms

• ·       tawny colour of the sun,

• ·         broken and imperfect halos around the sun and the moon,

• ·         glossy clouds moving across the sky

The above features ensure good 'conception of rainfall'.

In Chitthrai  and Vaikasi, sky marked by winds, clouds and halos ensure conception of rainfall which will fall 195^th day afterwards. 

The following features during these months mar conception of rainfall.

1.      Meteor showers.

2.      Thunderbolt

3.      Dust storm

4.      Appearance of city-like formation of clouds.

5.      Unnatural phenomenon in the atmosphere in colour of sky, clouds etc and at sun rise and sun set.

6.      Rainfall

7.      Sighting of comets

8.      Eclipses (No eclipses are seen during the months of observation in Tamilnadu in 2016)

9.      Spots in solar disc (sun spot maxima)

Position of Moon during the above 4 month period.

When the above 3-some favourable features of conception are present in a day when Moon is crossing Purvashada (Pooradam), Uttarashada (Uttradam), Purva Bhadrapada (Purattadhi), Uttarabhadrapada (Uttrattadhi) and Rohini, the subsequent rainfall on the 195^th day will be abundant.

When the above 3-some favourable features of conception are present in a day when Moon is crossing Arudra, Aslesha (Ayilyam) , Magha , Swati and Satabhishak (sadayam), the subsequent rains will go on for many days. On the contrary, if the 3-some factors are marred, there will be dryness.

If Moon crosses all the above mentioned stars with 3-some factors being present and marring factors being absent in Margazhi - would give rainfall for 8 days later (after 195 days).

In Thai - for 6 days

In Maasi -16 days

In Panguni – 24 days

In Chittrai– 20 days

In Vaiskasi – 3 days.

From the above details, we can deduce that this year’s (2015) continuous rains in October and November is related pregnancy features of Panguni and Chitthirai which have  a bearing for 24 days and 20 days respectively. The heaviest rainfall of the century occurred then.

This data also shows that October and November (Aippasi and Karthigai) are likely to have long spell of rainfall in any year provided the pregnancy features were good in Chitthirai and Vaikasi when Moon transited specific stars.

Conclusion:-

This observation is easy to make but must be done with care. Ancient sages and their disciples have done this observation year after year for several years, even for millennia. Since there are marring features too, we need to do the observation for a few years by checking the marring features also and assess the actual rainfall. Like any branch of science, this vigyana of rainfall offers testable and verifiable body of knowledge. Let us make use of it to complement meteorological predictions.

Note:- 

Garbottam of 14 days starting 29th Dec 2015 to 11th Jan 2016 corresponds to roughly 6 month period of rainy season starting from June 21st in the upcoming season. 

The 5 meteorological factors +3-some observation also holds good for any day from Margazhi to Vaikashi and has to be correlated to 195 day period for rainfall prediction.  

In this we see the days as follows:

Suppose the pregnancy features are seen on prathamai (thithi) in waxing period of say, Thai month, then the corresponding day is Prathamai of waning period of Aadi. (6 months later). This is how it is told in Brihad Samhita. But it will be difficult for common man. That is why I have written the 195 day count (which is also mentioned in Brihad samhita). The days of lunar months are counted to arrive at this number. 6 lunar months = 180 days. Plus half month / one phase makes it 180 +15 = 195 days. The actual occurrence of rain will be in   terms of thithis - pradamai, Dwithiyai, thrithiyai and so on. 

Is Garbottam applicable across the globe?

It must be checked. Garbottam  was seen in Tamilnadu until 3 generations ago. I have heard old timers say that. As Garbottam is associated with rishis this must have been observed throughout India.

Going by the logic of Garbottam, I think it must be applicable throughout Northern hemisphere by adding or deleting some meteorological features available in the respective regions. Based on the logic of Garbottam, people in other regions can develop the factors as applicable to their region. Anywhere in the globe,  the 195 day period must hold good. 

Tornadoes are another phenomenon that also comes under astrological scrutiny. Movement of Mars is a prominent feature in that. I am yet to study the tornado records.

Garbottam observation period for southern hemisphere is the opposite of what is in northern hemisphere. Garbottam starts for that region when Sun enters Arudra - opposite of Pooradam for Northern hemisphere.