Published May 16, 2009
Now the long expected election results is out. Contrary to the popular views, the results was a shock to everyone, both to the winning UPA and to the losing NDA. The reason is that this result is unexpected, and in some sense, unfeasible, considering the so much of anti-incumbency and confusion that existed in the past few months.
I strongly believe, that this election result appears to be highly artificial, and that some external/internal forces had acted on it to alter the verdict, to the non-popular italian lady and the rubber stamp Manmohan Singh. While i could not specify exactly the kind of riggings/manipulations that have happened, i just wanted to list down the possibilities and the reasons why i believe the results could be largely manipulated.
I would analyse this point NOT on NDA’s strength, but rather on the position of UPA before the polls.
Status of the Parties in the Pre-Poll Scenario:
Its clearly evident, that UPA was running on a heavy anti-incumbency factor, and was in a state of confusion, with infighting among its UPA partners. The Congress was continuously losing the state elections since 2004, except for few states like rajasthan and delhi. Even in rajasthan, congress won only because of BJP’s rivalries and it could not secure a comfortable majority.
And then the famous UPA parliamentry scam, where a group of opposition MP’s were bought by the ruling congress (but the principal architect being the US). Congress earned a bad name after that scam, and its popularity further plunged, because of the simultaneous bomb blasts in major indian cities, within weeks after the vote for cash scam. (While this is widely believed to be handiwork of congress and its american masters to cover up the rumbles raised by the opposition over the Vote for cash scam).
The congress also announced series of freebies, like the 60,000 crore loan waiver for farmers etc, which ultimately did not create any positive impact on it. The situation further worsened with skyrocketing price rises where a kg of rice peaked from Rs.20 to Rs. 40 at the time of polling.
The other UPA partners also doesnt seems to doing well. The DMK was itself at heavy anti-incumbency, while the congress had all sort of issues with other UPA allies, like RJD, paswan and Sharad Pawar. Most of the UPA constituents fielded candidates against congress in many places.
In tamilnadu, Jayalalitha was riding at her peak, with even some of the pro-congress news channels giving her a sweep of tamilnadu. People were disgusted at DMK’s rampant corruption and inactiveness and mainly its double standard over Lankan tamil issue. The people were so angry that they were of the opinion that other than DMK & Congress, any other party can be voted.
In such a scenario, the outcome of the POLLS is highly shocking and unbelievable.
Analysis of the Poll Outcomes:
Let me start with Tamilnadu. The DMK has won 18 seats, while the ADMK won only 9. This itself is unbelievable, considering the electoral alliance. The DMK had only congress and VCK, while the ADMK camp has MDMK, PMK, and the communists.
Also, the winning margins of DMK candidates are very high, which again raises the suspicion. Such high margins are possible only when there is a wave in favor of DMK, which clearly is absent in TN.
Also the finance minister P. Chidambaram was trailing till the last round, but suddenly declared as winner. Expecting more details on this.
At the national level too, there was NO wave in favor of congress, to attain such big victory. It got around 200 seats on its own, which is beyond its capability in a genuine contest and also in terms of its position and popularity, it is beyond its reach.
In andhra pradesh, the opposition had put up a strong alliance, and PRP remained a third front. It seems the congress is nearing majority, which again is very difficult considering the grand alliance and also its anti-incumbency. The TDP really had a favorable position, along with the support of communists and the TRS.
Is there any behind the scene riggings & Manipulations?
Those who are from tamilnadu, will immediately say “YES” on seeing the outcome. But on the national level, its really difficult to say so, in a generic way. But i believe, something has taken place to bring out the outcome.
The main reason for my prediction is that the way the congress projected itself in medias, and the way it was confident of 200 seats, and the relaxing posture from it, all make me suspect that the poll outcome was determined well ahead of the polls. If we look at the 200 mark of congress, it is more or less the same it was boasting of in the medias. (one may say, they said it out of their estimation.. but no party can predict as close as this, amidst an anti-incumbancy situation).
So what are the ways, the polls could be manipulated or rigged?
Hacking of EVM Software:
This is one area, where we cannot reject it completely. Being a software engineer myself, i am aware of how much if’s and else’ we can inject in to the software that runs in the EVMs. ie, we can implant any amount of logic or possibilities in to it, so that the results are obtained in the way they wanted. Let me quote the few possibilities that could be hacked in to the EVMs.
1. For every 10 votes in each party, one vote is transferred to the congress.
2. At the end of voting, just by pressing/holding a specific button, the final results are adjusted that a specific % of votes (say 5%) from other parties are transferred to the congress.
3. When the results are counted, point two can happen.
4. A passive secret minute wireless device integrated in to EVMs, known only to specific people, so that the results could be manipulated after the elections, while the EVM’s are stored in a central location. The person can do this through remote, just outside that building, and that he need to break in to the building. I believe, this is highly possible given the current technologies, and also due to the fact that the hacker can establish wireless connection to each of the EVM’s separately.
Or there can be a software that gets the data from all the EVM’s at a time, so that the hacker can adjust the data all at once from a remote location, then update them to the respective EVMs in a batch mode. This is the most effective way of poll rigging.
EVMs with such manipulating software/wireless devices need not be used at all the locations. Rather, a specific set of seats, where congress is strong but could not win might have been chosen, and such EVMS might have been delivered to those constituencies. By this, the possibility of such fraud being detected would be less, as such manipulated EVMs would be distributed among regular ones, so that the parties could not detect it effectively. I think its time consuming to verify all the EVMS, and that the parties might not be aware of such conspiracies and hence would not have thought of checking or may not know how to check.
Also, even the polling officers might not be knowing this, as the software is developed by not more than a team of 10 engineers. Only those who developed the software know of its functioning, and only those who designed the hardware chips know of the wireless feature.
Since the software of the EVM’s could be updated at any time any where, through either data card, or through wireless (in case if its fitted), this thing could have been done at any time of the election process. Even at the last minute. It has to be noted again, that the time to reinstall the software might not take more than 10 minutes.
Coming to the next possibility, the poll rigging has been another effective tool to manipulate the vote count. Its a known fact and it happened in the past, that at the end of the polls (by 4-5 PM), the booth manager, if he is a supporter of the ruling party, facilitates the respective booth agents to fill the unpolled votes to their party. The other party agents are either blackmailed, or subverted or threatened or thrown out of the room by using some false accusations.
But this could not be widely practiced, as it might expose the ruling party. However, the congress being extra constitutional party enjoying full media support, such incidents are never reported. When the congress could indulge in buying out votes in the parliament unmindful of the public reaction, its no wonder that it would fear for public reaction at the local booth level.
Particularly in Tamilnadu, the DMK has shown the way of how to do rigging without getting accounted for.
The Money Power:
I think, the BJP secured a self-goal, when it raised its pitch over bringing back swiss money. This backfired, as a tiny part of the swiss money would have been channeled to power broke the elections. Considering the fact that more than a two lakh crore rupees are stuffed in swiss bank, its natural for the corresponding secret account holders to divert a part of that to prevent BJP from coming to power, thus saving themselves from a government scrutiny. No wonder, even the congress persons themeselves would have lot of money stashed in swiss bank, which they might have used.
Now coming to the role of money in influencing the voters, i could accept it as a factor but not a deciding factor in the results. Because in the karnataka elections both ruling and opposition parties distributed money, and ultimately the BJP won through, inspite of congress distributing money.
Another possibility is to silence/bribe the BJP/opposition booth commitee members in key constituencies, to favor congress by being within BJP. I believe, there are many such moles available in BJP.
And the last thing is the distribution of money to the voters. In tamilnadu, it was taking place at an unprecendented scale, where for each constituency, around 50 crores were spent by DMK and the congress. This could not be matched by ADMK.
Deliberate Error in Election result:
I dont know how far the possibility is, but i am NOT ruling out this option. What if the person who announces the result in each constituency, manipulates in favor of the ruling party. Who is going to verify it or recount it? The respective booth representative just notes down what is being announced.
However i am aware that this is not that much easy.
The power of beurocracy:
And finally, i am coming to the most important factor. The absolute power of beurocracy, both in terms of governmental power and also in terms of their Unions.
In tamilnadu, its an open secret that the ADMK government was brought down last time, because of the conspiracies of the government servants. Jayalalitha came down heavily on the government employees, when they attempted to blackmail the government.
This was confirmed by me at some of my friends circle where their parents are government servants. But i could not speculate on how they could have done it. There are many possibilities/opportunities, where they could do this at various levels, right from polling booth.
Is india Doomed for ever?
Now, let’s consider the situation of India.
- The President of India is a congress selected person.
- The unaccountable super PM is an italian lady.
- The PM of india is the nominated person, who is the most obedient to his italian masters.
- The Chief Election Commissioner is Navin Chawla, who is a Congress stooge.
- Many government positions now appointed with person of congress loyalty.
I am really concerned that using these high level circles, the congress could do anything in the future. Let me speculate some of the possibilities…
1. The BJP governments at the state level would be brought down, using any means. Now Navin Chawla being the CEC, the congress has full co-operation from him to do anything they want. Earlier, when gopalswamy was the CEC, he was very strict, and even the communists were able to come back to power under him. And now Navin Chawla took over, the results are clear in west bengal and kerala. The communists should also think over.
2. The christian missionaries will continue to hold sway over
3.The temples will continue to be in government control, and left to its decay. Now itself, most of the temples are without priests , or in a shabby condition where priests get a paltry sum of Rs. 500 per month. In another 5 years, most of the remaining priests would leave away. More importantlly, the next generation of priests is virtually absent, as almost all the chidren of the current priest family prefer other jobs. The congress will never do anything to revive temples or Hinduism.
3. Rural areas would continue to be neglected. More people would migrate to cities, and more slums to be created. More infrastructure bottle neck at cities, and there would be two
4. The security of
5. Afzal guru will not be hanged
6. Rajiv killer Nalini will be pardoned.
7. More looting of
There are many more things that would happen. But for one thing is sure.
Another article from Mr Senthila raja's blog
Published May 24, 2009
A realistic Perspective of the Mass EVM Fraud:
In my earlier posts, i just gave a wild prediction of how EVMs could be hacked. And as the discussion goes on further, we get a realistic picture of how this fraud could have happened.
Let me put up my views on such possibilities again.
Insertion of Trojan:
Many people claim that this possibility is low, as the number of persons involved in this process would be high, and that there are possibilities that it might be leaked out. While their point is valid, we can also consider the sivaganga constituency, where the result is changed at the last minute, but the news has been completely blocked. So, even if there is more number of people involved, the news might be prevented from leaking out.
The important stage of this Software hacking process is to insert a trojan code in to the Control Unit software, right at the manufacturing stage. The EC claims that, since the same EVM is used in more than one election, and that the candidate serial number is not known at the time of manufacturing, this trojan software could not be effectively used.
However, this is not a FOOL PROOF method. What the trojan software needs to know is the exact button assigned to the beneficiary party. This button may vary from constituency to constituency. So there may be series of key combinations, to make the software know the button assigned for the particular beneficiary party. For example, if the congress is assigned the 3rd button in a particular constituency, that button is held for a particular time period (say some 30 seconds to 1 minute), in combination with other buttons. By this, the software will come to know of the button assigned to the beneficiary party, and use this for diverting the votes from other parties.
The EC also claims, that the each chip has a unique code assigned, and that replacing with any other chip will make the EVM crash. This is again a vague reasoning, because, it will not be difficult, to manufacture the same chip with same unique number when a determined fraud is happening.
One more claim by the EC is that most of the EVM’s are manufactured long time back. But that doesnt explain the possibility of replacing the chip with another identical one, just before this election.
Embedding of Minute Wireless Transmitter/ Receiver in EVM Chip:
Most of the technical persons might be aware of the rapid advancement of Nano Technology, where the size of the electronic componenet is highly miniaturised. Today is the era of embedding everything in to single chip. And i strongly raise the this question; Why dont the Controlling Unit of the EVM’s be embedded with a wireless transmitter/receiver, for remote access?
The embedding of wireless Transmitter/Receiver inside the control Unit of the EVM machine is highly possible, and can be done without being detected. I believe, this form of manipulating EVMs through remote control is indeed the most sophisticated, easier, and advanced way to manipulate the results accurately.
For those, who are rejecting this very idea, please refer the following article in BBC.
The above news is about a HP chip, that stores 100’s of pages, and transmitts them via wireless, using bluetooth or other Radio Frequency.
So, its entirely possible to embed such a wireless transmitter/receiver inside the control circuit of the EVM’s, and they can be controlled from any part of the world.
Before, i move on, please read the following articles too.
A full fledged bluetooth wireless featured embedded in a single chip. (antennas, transmitter, receiver, all within chip).
Another HP article, that describes about the minute wireless chip that they had designed.
An article in 2002, reporting about a wireless feature embedded within a chip.
A quote at the end of the above article, would give a brief idea on use of embedded wireless devices.
“In other potential applications, the military has expressed interest in pairing wireless chips with tiny sensors such as microphones. The idea is to drop thousands or even hundreds of thousands of these devices in a region to eavesdrop over a wide area. The chips would form a listening network by themselves, and the military monitor the system as needed.”
when a tiny wireless chip is dropped in hundreds to eavesdrop, it means, the chip is capable of transmitting data back to the control station. This point is very important and has to be noted to understand the issue further.
Nano Technology in US Military:
How the EVMs Could have been manipulated through remote control:
To discuss this possible scenario, We need to assume that the wireless transmitter/emitter had been embedded in right at the manufacturing of the Chip itself. (Note: THe chip manufacturing happens at a different place, well before EVM production)
There is a unique ID assigned to each EVM, and each of the EVM could be contacted separately, using this unique ID.
Can such a wireless component be detected or traced?
- The wireless componenet in a chip, cannot be detected, unless, it transmits or emits signals. The Chip might have been programmed to transmit data only upon receiving certain command through specific frequency. In this case, the receiver component might be in listen mode, waiting for a particular command, known only to a core expert group. So, in a normal circumstance, this wireless component will be in hidden mode.
Can the architecture of the CHIP be verified?
- To my knowledge, a chip’s internal circuitry cannot be verified after it is manufactured. In our case, the expert committee had verified only the approved architecture for use in production. However, it doesnt gaurantee, that all the Chips manufactured there are as per the original design.
- The current architecture might have been obtained by the hackers, and additional wireless component introduced, and this new modified architecture might be produced at some different place and then used during the assembly of EVMs.
- The size, apperance, and even the Unique ID of the Chip would be emulated as it is, and thus it is extremely difficult to verify, if the current Chip components used is indeed the original one.
The EVMs are all despatched to the respective constituencies, and the high level “Rigging / hacking team”, will ensure that the EVM’s with wireless component is delievered to the appropriate constituency.
Now, the election would be conducted regularly, and the EVMs are stored in a highly secured location in each constituency.
Now, the core hacking team comes in to picture. We know that there are two days b/w last phase of voting and counting. In that time interval, the following is possible.
- Using specially designed device, the core hacking team, can connect to each of the EVM’s through satellite connection, and obtain the voting data in to its computer. This is possible, since each EVM has a unique ID, and using that ID, they can connect to each and every EVM accurately.
- All the data would be downloaded to a computer, according to EVM’s.
- Now, in the selected constituencies, the votes are adjusted in each EVM’s used there, to increase the tally of the ruling party. Suppose, if there are 1500 boths in a constituency, and each booth having 1000 voters, with an average voting of 750 votes. If we could adjust, atleast 50 votes in each booth, it comes around 45,000 votes in all the 1500 booths. And this 50 votes need not be taken from any single party. For example, in a particular constituency, 20 votes from ADMK, 10 votes from DMDK, 5 votes from 4 other small parties/candidates, will total 50 votes. And these small adjustments are extremely difficult to detect and prove.
- After the adjustments, these data could be uploaded to the corresponding EVMs automatically through an appropriate devices.
- To give a familiar view of this process, its possible, to download all the data in an excel sheet along with EVM ID, adjust the values, and then upload these data back to the EVM, from this excel sheet itself. This is very much possible. Through automation, any number of EVMs could be manipulated in a short time.
we have seen how the remote controlling of EVM’s can be done by a small group of 5 to 10 expert group. I cannot prove that this is what could have happened, but i am pointing out, that this is largely possible, with current technological advancement, no matter, what amount of safegaurds we have.
Imagine, if atleast 25% of the EVMs are embedded with such wireless component, the result can be manipulated in atleast 25% of the constituencies. That comes around 136 constituencies of india, where the results can be adjusted remotely from anywhere in the world. THis is not a small number to ignore.
What the political Parties (Mainly the opposition parties) can do now?
First of all, it would be difficult to prove that a rigging has been happened, because of the secrecy of the votes. The political parties can analyse the voting patter in the booth where they are strong, and then take a mock survey.
The next thing is that the opposition parties can fight to ban use of EVMs in the coming elections, and return to paper ballot mechanism. This is very important, and can be argued strongly, citing the numerous possibility of hacking electronic devices. Also, the possibility of Rigging elections on a mass scale, like use of automated software, wireless technology etc, undermines the very purpose of election. In Paper Ballot, although some amount of rigging take place, it cannot be done at a mass scale secretly.
And if the parties fail to do that, then Indian elections would always be a “Match Fixing”. The parties will continue to spend large amount of money and effort in fighting elections, and atlast lose the elections, without being aware that a core group would sit inside an A/C room (either in Delhi or in Newyork), and manipulate the results to make a particular party to win.
For those who dont accept, or reject this as non-sense, i can confidently bet, that in the current world of electronics, Nothing is impossible.
Imagine, if the US could detect the location of Osama Bin Laden, through his cell phone signals, its not Impossible to remote control the EVM’s through satellite.
PS: The US and Britain had a direct stake in the current indian election, mainly because of the nuclear deal they had done. They can get the full co-operation (or perhaps, the servitude, slavery and subjugation) only from the congress party, and that they had the larger interest in making congress win. So, we cannot neglect the role of the US, in architecting such a large hi-fi election rigging, using a small core group of hackers.