Tuesday, December 8, 2015

# Chennai floods – Will the rains continue in December 2015?

BBC news and  NASA are doing rounds fueling the fear of Chennaiites that their nightmare is not yet over. Let me also give my piece of mind with whatever astrology I know – and I assure you, readers, that I won’t terrify you. The confidence I got from the current planetary situation made me write this blog that is aimed at reducing the fear in the minds of Chennaiites.

Readers may recall my previous blog Calamitous rains in Chennai - சென்னையில் ஊழி. in which I gave a link to one of my articles on Rainfall astrology. That link contains an important article on the nature of rainfall every year and also the ativrishti and anavrishti rainfall yogas on the combination of planets that make plentiful rains or deficient rains.

The current year of Manmatha varusham is Varuna Megha year that is conducive for plentiful rains from the seas. Among the Nava nayakas, Moon is the Meghathipathi thereby lending support to Varuna megha. These combinations must ensure good rains for India. But they didn’t, during the south west monsoon. This makes it mandatory for us to look at each and every planet involved in ativrishti and anavrishti yogas and their movement day by day ( like how meteorologists do on a daily basis) to assess when it will rain and how much it will rain.

The most common approach to this assessment by our ancients is to check the Budha- Shukra sameepyam.  This year at the time of breaking of the monsoon in June, these two planets (Mercury and Venus) were farther apart, with other planets particularly the hot planets like Sun and Mars coming in between them. But Venus joined Jupiter in Kataka (watery sign) for nearly a month in June with no planet in between (Check ativrishti yoga) . This ensured good rains from South west monsoon. (we have to see whether these combination occur in the rainy season, while checking these planets. Only where there is a rainy season, these combinations will give rains.)

Then the closeness between Mercury and Venus started from 24th July to 16th August. Mercury went past the Sun to be closer to Venus while Venus continued to be close to Jupiter. But this combination (latter one) happened in the fiery sign of Leo. This restricted the rains.  

The next period of closeness started on October 4th and ended on November 17th. This period is applicable only to North east monsoon that will bring rains to Tamilnadu. This period was pretty wet.

The next closeness comes in between January 15th to March 24th. Where it is rainy season (in any part of the globe) it will rain plentiful then. Otherwise this closeness causes severe winter conditions. By this we can say that winter (2015-16) will be severe in northern latitudes.

In this scenario where does the heaviest rains of the century that lashed Chennai in the last week of November and the first week of December fit in?

This is a crucial lesson for us to look for other less popular ativrishti yogas.

One of the ativrishti yogas I have listed down in my article on rainfall prediction is that “Sun, Mars and Saturn must be transiting alternate signs. When moon is transiting at 150 or 180 or 270 degrees from them there will be heavy rains for 2 days before and after those degrees.”

On November 17th Budha – Shukra Sameepyam  ended, but by then Sun entered Scorpio to join with Saturn (Karthigai month). From 17th November onwards, the above combination of ativrishti was satisfied with Sun and Saturn in one sign (Scorpio) and Mars in an alternate sign (Virgo) from them. When Moon transits in 5th, 7th and 9th signs from them, it will result in plentiful rains. (the signs are translated from the degrees mentioned in the ativrishti yoga).

On 21st November, Moon entered Pisces which is the 5th sign (150 degrees) from Sun – Saturn combination and 7th sign (180 degrees) from Mars in the alternate sign of Virgo. Throughout the duration of Moon’s stay in Pisces ( 21st, 22nd and 23rd mid day) it must have rained plentifully. (I don’t have the records of the rainy days at that time. Interested ones can cross check). Moon as Meghathipathi must be more vigorous in giving rains.

Then when Moon was transiting Taurus, it was on the 7th sign (180 degrees) from Sun- Saturn combination and 9th sign from Mars (270 degrees). Moon entered Taurus on 25th November and continued to be there till 27th evening. It must have rained well then also.

Then when Moon entered Kataka (cancer sign) it was on the 9th sign (270 degrees) from Sun- Saturn combination. Cancer being its own Rasi and a watery sign, Moon can be expected to give more rains during its stay in cancer. Moon entered Cancer on 29th November and continued to be there past midnight December 1st when Chennai reached its saturation point and exploded into floods. The Century’s highest rainfall occurred during this time. As per the ativrishti yoga of this type, it will also rain for 2 days before and after these degrees.

The already wet conditions aided by Budha- Shukra sameepyam from October to mid November coupled with this rare combination of ativrishti in the period immediately succeeding the sameepyam resulted in reservoirs of Chennai exceeding their limits thereby causing unprecedented floods. The haphazard growth of habitation in water ways and connecting routes which roughly account for nearly 40% of the population of Chennai wrecked havoc on the lives of those people.

Now will the rains continue to lash in the coming days?

When we look at the combination of this particular ativrishti yoga, it will rain until this combination lasts in alternate signs. The early bird to move out is the Sun which will leave Saturn in Scorpio on 16th December. So by all means we can expect rains until then.

However there is a rider in the form of Moon (in that ativrishti yoga). Moon must be in 5th, 7th and 9th signs from one of them. The earliest can be when Moon is in Capricorn which occurs on December 14th.  On that day and 2 days after that, Moon will be in the 5th sign from Mars while Sun and Saturn would continue to be in Scorpio. By 16th Sun leaves Saturn and therefore the rains, if they materialize on 14th will lose power after 16th Dec.

But before that 2 things must also be taken into account.

One is that Mercury has just left Scorpio yesterday (6th December) and goes ahead of all these planets. Mercury ahead of these planets will blow away the rain clouds by winds as per anavrishti yoga. Therefore there are chances that the rain clouds that are threatening us in Chennai and Tamilnadu in general may be blown away in the coming days, starting from yesterday.

The second point we must bear in mind in another common ativrishti yoga involving Moon. As per that (refer my article on ativrishti yoga) “ If it rains when the moon is within 8 to 15 degrees from the sun after conjunction (New Moon) or opposition (Full moon), then it will rain for a month till moon reaches the same position again. (In other words if it rains starting form the last 15 ghatis of Pratipat / Pradhamai / first thithi until the first 15 ghatis of Dwitheeya / 2ndthithi, there will be rains for the 2 pakshas or the full lunar month.)

It rained on the day on pratipat and Dwitheeya after the recent Full moon (Karthigai Deepam). Therefore the whole month until Moon reaches the same degrees, it must rain. Per this, it must rain till next Full Moon (December 24th).

We have to see how this will be offset by forward moving Mercury and Sun leaving Saturn on 16th December.

As such, I don’t foresee severe rains like what we saw on December 1st when Moon was in Kataka, the 9th sign from Sun- Saturn. But any further rainfall would lead the city’s reservoirs into spate. However the main ativrishti yoaga  (of Sun, Saturn and Mars in alternate signs) becoming weak by 16th December, I expect a weak rainfall after that.

I have observed forward moving Mercury to usher in dry winds in the past. I believe that such a tendency would continue now also. But the current  ativrishti yoga (involving Sun, Saturn and Mars) being rare in the rainy season, we must watch how this gets restricted by Mercury.

The current scenario gives us another insight that Saturn in signs of rainy season with Sun joining it must be watched

Next year also in the month of Karthigai, Sun joins Saturn in Scorpio while Mars will be in the alternate sign of Capricorn. Venus will be forward to Mercury (ativirshiti) then. While Moon moves in 5th, 7th and 9th houses from Scorpio and Capricorn, there will be plentiful rains. Particularly on November 18th, 19th and 20th of 2016, when Moon will be in Kataka rasi, which is 7th and 9th from these signs, heavy rains can be expected. Next year being Neela Megha, there will be isolated heavy rains at that time. The current ativrishti yoga gives leads like this.

For the time being, I expect the forward moving Mercury and Moon in unfavorable degrees to reduce the impact of the anticipated heavy rainfall over this week end.

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