Friday, May 13, 2016

Rainfall check -2. (Rains on polling day - Low pressure forming on the day Venus crosses Mercury)

Read  Rainfall check - part 1


Earlier on 29th February 2016 (here), I wrote about the dates of importance for rainfall in April and May 2016. That part is reproduced below


Again on 8th May 2016 (article here)  I gave a nutshell of those dates and events as follows:



The rainfall events had followed these dates so far.

On 8th May when Venus started deep combustion, Bangalore which was reeling under severe heat until then, received showers and the trend continued thereafter in many other parts of eastern half of India including Hyderabad.

By 10th May rainfall had become wide spread in most parts of eastern cross section of India including interior Tamilnadu. On that day, the closeness of Mercury and Venus began.

On 13th May (today), Mercury came within 1 degree of Venus in Aries and is crossing Venus in retrograde motion. By tomorrow evening, Venus will be in front of Mercury within / by one degree. Such crossing and deep conjunction between Mercury and Venus, Venus and Ketu, Venus and Rahu, Mercury and Ketu, Mercury and Rahu, Venus and Jupiter etc are said to trigger rainfall activity as per ativrishti (abundant rainfall) yogas.

Now at the time of Mercury crossing in retrogression and Venus moving across Mercury and going in front of it, reports from IMD say that a low pressure area is forming.  The following information has been posted in IMD website since yesterday (12th May).

It foresees that by 16th, this would become a Depression bringing rain to Tamilnadu by 16th May (the polling day).

The Chennairains.com has published the probable course of the depression as of today.  It is reproduced below.


At the time of writing this, no firm information on the course of the depression and subsequent rains is available.

The following is from the astrological point of view.

The above combination exists or starts from 2 -00 PM on 14th May, 2016. Venus will be in front of Mercury by 1 degree. Moon will be crossing Jupiter within 24 hours from that. Moon, transiting at about 150 degrees from Mer-Ven combine is a good trigger for rainfall. Therefore effect of this low pressure would begin from 15th May.

By the midnight on 18th night Moon comes in direct opposition from Venus. Moon in direct opposition to Venus (7th sign from Venus) is a good sign of rainfall.

But here is there is a hitch. On the night of 19th Venus moves to Taurus. Though the day of entry could give copious rains, the other feature exits namely Venus (now joined with Sun) will be in a sign opposite to malefics. On 21st midday, Moon enters Scorpio to join with the malefics.



Will the above combination give rainfall is a big question. This is anavrishti (deficient rainfall) yoga. As per this, rainfall will fade away. Instead this combination is laden with earthquakes and land-slides.

However till 7th June, the closeness between Venus and Mercury continues and Venus continues to be combust. In fact on 7th June Venus overtakes Sun at 24th degree in Taurus. By normal standards, this must give good rains. But opposition by malefics indicate deficient rains.  

For comparison I checked with Cyclone Laila  which formed on 17th May, 2010 and made a landfall on 20th May near Bapatla, Andhra Pradesh.  It was one of the worst storms in terms severity, rainfall and damage. The planetary combination on the day of formation of Laila is shown below.

Though the ativrishti factors such as Venus in the front and conjunction of Venus and Moon are there to ensure good rainfall, the more important reason for heavy rainfall is the position of the 3 planets Sun, Mars and Saturn in alternating signs and Moon transiting them. This combination results in copious rains and flooding. The same combination existed for a fortnight during Chennai floods last year.  

The same combination existed during the formation of another severe storm, namely Thane which was formed on 25th December 2011 and made a landfall on 30th December. It was as follows.

Sun, Mars and Saturn were in alternate signs ensuring heavy rainfall. Moon joined the combination and was 150 degrees from one of them (Mars). Moon was in  Purvashada star that ensures good rainfall. On the day of formation, Mercury and Rahu were moving towards each other triggering the cyclone formation. Venus is in the front of all. This is a perfect combination for severity of a cyclone and abundant rains from them.

Compared to them the present Depression is not accompanied with the 3 planets (Sun, Mars and Saturn) in alternating signs. Moreover the malefics are going to be opposite to Venus from 20th May onwards. This is a strong anavrishti (deficient rainfall) yoga. All these indicate that the presently forming storm would not be severe. The rains would not last beyond 20th or 21st May for India. Let us wait and watch.


UPDATE at 20-00 PM, 15th May, 2016

















UPDATE at 6-00 PM, 17th May, 2016.

Mr Jason Nicholls, a Senior Meteorologist/International forecasting manager @ AccuWeather. has forecast that there will be heavy rains on Thursday, 19th May. His meteorological forecast coincides with our astrological prediction. 

As per our astrological analysis, Moon comes in direct opposite sign to Venus on the midnight of 18th. This opposition means heavy rainfall as per ativrishti yoga (mentioned above in the article). This opposition continues till 19th midnight after which Venus crosses over to Taurus, the next sign. As per this, rainfall will start decreasing from 20th / 21st onwards and stop thereafter. Mr Jason's tweet is reproduced below. 




Note on Floods:-
The astrological indicators do not indicate the floods such as the one witnessed in last December. There may be flooding of the streets but no calamitous rains to swell Adyar river and the 50+ lakes in Chennai including Chembarambakkam. The absence of Sun, Mars and Saturn in alternate signs is an indicator of this. The present rains is mainly attributable to Budha - Shukra sameepyam and some triggers by planetary crossing. 

But the date (19th May) of heavy rainfall is the counting date. The EC must take this in to consideration. 

UPDATE on 22-05-2016


The Depression went past off the Chennai coast and was moving to the east of Vishakapatnam by 20th May. Venus crossed to Taurus on that day. As written in the article above, on the day of entry into a sign by Venus, there will be copious rains. 
Sudden thundershowers occurred in Hyderabad causing heavy damage to life and property. 



The Depression by now called as Cyclone Roanu went along the East Indian coast and made a landfall in Bangladesh on 21st May.


The path of Cyclone Roanu 
(pic courtesy: http://www.chennairains.com/clear-weather-tn-cyclone-roanu-gets-closer-landfall/)

Venus had crossed 2 degrees in Taurus and was behind the Sun by 4 degrees, in close conjunction. As told above in the article this system did not go beyond 21st May.

But by 19th and 20th, its impact on Indian landmass had stopped. This landfall has happened in Bangladesh. 

The ideas that have been confirmed are :-

# The East, North East sector of Indian sub continent had received rainfall by this as indicated by the planetary position. 

# Indian landmass did not get torrential rains as happened with cyclone Nilam or Thane discussed in the article, primarily because the more stronger Ativrishti yogas were not present.

# The closeness of Mercury and Venus do bring out good rains.

# Their crossing over upon each other signals a trigger of the system / cyclone. Perhaps the presence of Sun in front of them signals heat wave conditions causing the system formation. This must be cross checked in the same situation in future.

# Earlier in Part 1 of rainfall check we found Mercury's entry into next sign bringing thunder showers (in rainy or pre- monsoon season). Now Venus crossing over to the next sign indicated the landfall accompanied with torrential rains. 

Now with Venus - Sun in close conjunction in Taurus (fixed sign) must bring about good rainfall as per Ativrishti yoga. The closeness between Venus and Mercury also continues (till 7th June) which under normal circumstances must bring good rainfall.

But the presence of 2 malefics namely Saturn and Mars in opposite signs must mar the rainfall in this period. We must wait and watch how things take shape in this period. 

If it rains with thunder storms caused by heat circulation in the upper atmosphere, we must deduce that the opposition of 2 fiery planets namely Sun and Mars causes this. Presently Mars in watery sign is almost coming in direct opposition with the Sun in earthy sign as of 22nd 23rd. On 24th Mars will be in direct opposition to Venus at 6 degrees.  Watching for some meteorological events to see if this opposition has a role in rainfall or lack of rainfall.



3 comments:

Srikanth said...

Thanks for the update Maam, it is quite interesting to see this evolving. I remember the discussion which we had in our blog after your last post about how your inference indicates a possible disturbance evolving around May middle. Going by your inference it appears Southwest Monsoon could see a weak onset. Will watch this space keenly

jayasree said...

Update added at the end of the blog. Readers may please take note.

jayasree said...

Another update added today.