Friday, April 26, 2013

Rainfall prediction – Part 7 (Miscellany )

The previous parts can be read here:-

Part 2:-Solar ingress

In this section we will see some trivia which meteorological scientists would not have thought of. For instance, it is common to see in Hindu calendars the mention of terms such as “ThEdhi mazhai” or “due date for rains” and observation of the tips of the crescent moon. They are a result of years of observation of certain solar dates and the moon when it had rained. 
Taking up the “due dates for rains”, it is based on the premise that certain dates and stars in the Solar month do indicate rainfall. In the Almanacs one would have noticed the mention of it saying that if it rains on that day, it would rain well in the year.  Meteorological analysis of olden records might throw better light on why these dates have been identified so. These dates are with reference to the Solar months. Below is given the solar months and the days. If it rains on these days, it means rainfall is normal or above normal throughout the rainy season.

Gemini / Aani (in Tamil) = 10th day.
Cancer / Aadi = 8th day
Leo / AavaNi = 6th day
Virgo / Purattaasi = 4th day
Libra / Aippasi = 2nd say
Scorpio / Kaarthigai = 1st day
Sagittarius / Maargazhi = 1st day.

The above months cover both South west and North east monsoons. Old meteorological records must be checked to see how many of these, when present had resulted in good rain fall in the season or at least in the same month. It must also be checked if it pertains to a particular location where it rains on the due date.

Importance of solar month of ShravaNa or AavaNi

Of the above months, the solar month of Leo / AavaNi  has a special significance. On the 6th day of that month there must be some rains as per the above information. Even if it does not rain,  thunderbolts must be heard on that day. If so, it would rain well in the rainy season. The thunderbolt of Leo 6th is known as “AavaNi muzhakkam” or the “Roar of AavaNi / Leo / ShravaNa”.  The thunderbolts must be heard loudly.  I think this also pertains to individual localities. 
There is another observation in the solar month of Leo (AavaNi / ShravaNa). On the day of Moon transiting the star Moola in that month, the rising sun must be covered by clouds in such a way that there must dull light or darkness all around. If it appears so at the time of sun rise on that day, then also it means that the rainy season will be bountiful.

Importance of  solar month of Ashada or aadi

Following observations are done in the solar month of Ashada or Aadi or Cancer. Only the solar month must be taken into account even if lunar month of Shravana had started. 
The 5th day (Panchami thithi) after the New moon must be observed on this solar month. This thithi coming on certain week days signify good rainfall in the rainy season. In Tamil this observation is known as “Aadi-k-kuRi” or “the indicator of Aadi”.
They are as follows: (Thithi + week day)
(This ) Panchami  + Sunday = Below average rainy season.
Panchami + Monday = Above average rainfall causing floods.
Panchami + Tuesday = Below average rainfall.  Heat and dryness. 
Panchami +Wednesday = windiness and less rainfall
Panchami + Thursday = Enough rainfall that supports agriculture.
Panchami + Friday = Excess rainfall.
Panchami + Saturday = Draught.
If one checks these days, it will be seen that it tallies with week day-based observation of Solar ingress into Aries.

There is yet another observation in the solar month of Ashada / Aadi based on thithi – star conjunction. It is known as “Aadi –thithi- kuRi” or “indicator of thithi in Aadi”.
This is a kind of fine tuning of the Ashadhi Yoga explained in the previous part. 
The waxing period (after New Moon) is under consideration here. The 9th, 10th and 11th days of this period namely Navami, Dasami and Ekadashi must be observed for conjunction with specific stars. The stars are those starting from Swati upto Anusha. Moon’s transit on each of these stars accompanied with specific meteorological conditions show whether the ensuing rainy season will be bountiful throughout or in parts.  
Navami + Swati = cloudiness, rains, windiness with drizzle, thunderbolts and lightening
This indicates good rains in the early part of the rainy season.
Dasami + Vishaka = Same as above. This indicates good rains in the middle part of the rainy season. 
Ekadashi + Anusha = Same as above. This indicates good rains in the latter part if the rainy season.

In the waning fortnight of this solar month if Dasami or Ekadashi coincides with Rohini, it causes good rains throughout the 4 months of the rainy season. This was explained as Rohini yoga in the previous article.

Some specific combinations – Month-wise.

The following are a kind of checklist for rainfall as the season progresses. 
·         In the solar month of Vaishaka / Vaigasi / Taurus, if it rains on the 14th day (Chathurdashi ) of the dark phase of the moon, it will rain well throughout the season. If not, there will be scanty rainfall. This year this day comes on June 6-7.

·         In the Solar month Ashada / Aadi / Cancer, if any two of the following happen to come on a Sunday, there will be plentiful rains in the year. They are Swati,  Uttrashada, Navami, Chathurdashi, Paurnami (Full Moon). If any one of these comes on a Sunday in the Solar month of Cancer, it would rain well in the rainy season. This year on 21st July Chathurdashi starts at 3-30 am on the night of Sunday. We must see how much this bears fruit.

·         In the Solar month of Ashada / Aadi / Cancer when there is combination of Swati – Navami, Uttarashada – Full Moon and Chathurdashi – Sunday, if the following meteorological symptoms are seen, the ensuing rainy season will be bountiful. They are rainbow, thunder, cloudiness or rains.

·         On the first day of any Solar month, if the moon is NOT transiting at that time Arudra or
Punarvasu or Hastha or Chithra or Purvashada or Uttrashada or Uttara bhadrapada, there will be rain in that month. If Moon is in any one of these stars on the day of Solar ingress into a sign (1st day of solar month) there won’t be rains in that month.
Indications from Clouds + stars.

Reddish tinted clouds seen on the days of particular stars (the star of the day is ascertained from the transit of Moon in a star) are indicators of ensuing rainfall.
They are as follows:
If red tinted clouds are seen on the days of
Moola, BharaNi, Purvabhadrapada and Purvashada = it will rain after 8 days.
Aswini in the afternoon time = it will rain after 5 days.
Uttrashada in the afternoon time = it will rain after 11 days.
Uttrabhadar pada in the afternoon time = it will rain after 7 days.
Jyeshta in the afternoon time = it will rain after 10 days.
Anusha in the afternoon time = it will rain after 3 days.

The above are about reddish tint in the clouds.
The clouds as white as snow must be seen on the day of Arudra = it will rain after 7 days.

Indications from the appearance of Moon.

(1)   Crescent Moon.

The 3rd day of waxing Moon holds the clue to the normal nature of the monsoon.  This phase of the moon is popularly known as “MoonRaam piRai” – the 3rd phase of the crescent moon. People consider it to be rare to see this as it will be low in the sky and hidden by clouds in the monsoon season.  But this phase of the crescent must be somehow sighted to make sure that the tips of the crescent are in the expected positions that guarantee good monsoon and reasonable price level ( as a result of good monsoon). This also means that the path of moon and earth has to be in ideal places which ensures ideal meteorological activities for a good monsoon. 
The two tips of the crescent are in north and south directions.
The northern tip must be higher than the southern tip for the eight months starting from the solar month of Vaishaka / Vaigasi / Taurus until the solar month of Margashira / Margazhi / Sagittarius. 
The two tips must have to be even in the next two months of Capricorn / Thai and Aquarius / Maasi. 
The Southern tip must be higher than the northern tip in the next months of Pisces / Panguni and Aries / Chiththirai.
If the tips look different from the way stipulated above, there will be terrible famine in the land. 
(2)   Halo around Moon

In the Monsoon season, sun or the moon will be often seen surrounded by a halo called in astrology as “Parivesha”. 

In Ashadi Yoga, this observation is done. On the day of Full Moon in Ashada month (Aadi in Tamil), it is good to see a halo around the moon. The observation must start right from the time Full moon is sighted in the evening and continues till dawn. The duration is divided into 3 parts of 4 hours each.
·         If the halo is seen around the moon in the first 4 hours after Moon-rise, it means it will rain well in the lunar month of Aswayuja (October- November).

·         If the halo is seen around the moon in the 2nd  4 hours after Moon-rise, it means it will rain well in the lunar month of Kaarthika (November - December).

·         If the halo is seen around the moon in the 3rd and the last 4 hours after Moon-rise, it means it will rain well in the lunar month of Margashira (December- January).

If halos are seen around planets such as Jupiter and Venus, that also indicates good rainfall.
But halos must not be seen around Mars and Saturn.
(3)   Halo around Sun and the Moon for immediate rainfall

·         Generally when the colour of the halo is white, milky white, silverish, or glossy in complete circle around the sun or the moon, that ensures good rains to come.

·         If the halo is tinged with peacock blue, that ensures immediate rains. 
·         If the halo is found closer to Sun / Moon, it foretells rains in places away from where the on-looker sees it.

·         If the halo is found as a circle away from the disc of sun or Moon , it shows rains may arrive at any time at the place of the on-looker.

·         If the halo is thick and bright, the rainfall will be heavy.

·         If the halo is broad, the rainfall will be on wider area.

Major tips on rainfall prediction of Vedic seers have been covered so far in the 7 articles of this series. One can observe that almost all of them are scientific and not dogmatic. They are derived from observational meteorology and astronomy and cross checked with rainfall in a particular place. Most of them are not part of today’s science of meteorology, but it would be beneficial if modern science of meteorology takes them into account – of course after checking them. After all, today’s science of meteorology is only a few centuries old whereas this wisdom of seers had been in place for a known period of minimum of 2000 years and more. In olden days – not long ago – until the traditional system of education was replaced by today’s education, this was one of the main topics taught and studied in schools of astrology.

This compilation has been done to spread awareness about this indigenous knowledge of rainfall prediction methods and encourage common man to take them up and judge the rainfall season in HIS own place.  Though Monsoon arrival may be predicted by modern meteorological tools, how much and how long it will rain in a given place cannot be predicted accurately by the modern science. But this ancient wisdom helps even a common man to assess the rainfall behaviour in his own place for the whole season. The methods written in this series can be checked for a reasonable period of 5 to 9 years to derive more reliable methods for the current times. The Tamil version of this is also being brought out. Those who want to use this work are free to do so, but with due acknowledgements.  


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